India could have 35 lakh cases by Sept: IISc study



BENGALURU: India will have 35 lakh Covid-19 cases, and Karnataka 2.1 lakh, by September 1, says a worst-case scenario projection that an IISc team says is based on the current national trend. The Indian Institute of Science projection says active cases in the country, and in the state, are likely to be 10 lakh and 71,300, respectively, by then. In a better-than-the-current-trend scenario, the country may hit a peak of 20 lakh total cases, 4.75 lakh active, and 88,000 deaths by September 1. And, in the same scenario, Karnataka will have 1.2 lakh total cases, 28,700 active cases and 5,460 deaths.


For perspective, as of 7 pm Wednesday, India had 9.4 lakh Covid cases, 3.4 lakh active cases and 24,300 deaths. Worst-case scenario projections show Maharashtra may have 6.3 lakh cases, Delhi 2.4 lakh, Tamil Nadu 1.6 lakh and Gujarat 1.8 lakh cases by September, with active cases roughly 35% of the total. The projections by IISc professors Sashikumar G, Deepak S and their team said India would have 1.4 lakh deaths — of them 25,000 from Maharashtra, 9,700 from Delhi, 8,500 from Karnataka, 6,300 from Tamil Nadu and 7,300 from Gujarat — by September. They project that India is likely to have 1.2 crore cases and 5 lakh deaths by November 1 and 2.9 crore cases and 10 lakh deaths by January 1. Karnataka is estimated to have 7.2 lakh cases and 30,400 deaths by November 1, and 10.8 lakh cases and 78,900 deaths by January 1.


印度科学研究所教授Sashikumar G、Deepak S和他们的团队预测,到今年9月,印度的死亡病例或达到14万例,其中马哈拉施特拉邦2.5万例,德里9700例,卡纳塔克邦8500例,泰米尔纳德邦6300例,古吉拉特邦7300例。他们预测,到11月1日,印度的累计确诊病例或达到1200例、死亡病例或达到50万例。到2021年1月1日,累计确诊病例或达到2900万例,死亡病例或达到100万例。


As per the worse-case scenario, no peak is predicted for India until the end of March 2021, at which time there will be 6.2 crore cases, 82 lakh active cases and 28 lakh deaths.


The state-wise projections are computed with the parameters of the national trend to compare the performance of the respective state with the national trend. For example, Kerala, Karnataka, UP (and others) have done better than the national trend, whereas Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, MP (and others) have done worse than the national trend.




Johnny Sack

its possible. we are doing way too many tests now, so more cases will come out. dont scare the public for no reason



Rajesh Asarpota

The tests are needed to see what the reality is -- which may be more than 1Million already - just not  pinpointed.. And growing..



Stephen Mani

We are doomed. And the stupid Government is still saying 'there is no community transmission of Covid in India'! It is almost as if the people in the Government are living in a parallel universe. I guest the Government used the same logic when they said 'the never entered India'! Without question now, the Modi Government has turned out to be the worst in India's post-independence history.





Anantha Prasanna

What a negative news. If calculations are not disclosed this news is nothing but fiction. This news is to scare whom? CORONA-19????



新冠病毒吗 ? ? ? ?

Rajesh Asarpota

If you are hitting 100k every three days - in a month you have 1M. 3 Months - 3M - add to the current data set - you are sitting on 3.5M - Simple Math.



Muralidhar Jyoti

Report should be substantiated by proofs.



Rich Tech

35 lakhs by Sep... out of 135 crores.....

Hmmm..... so haphazardly taken decision of locking down country didn't work out.....

Don't worry we will blame Nehru Ji and others... that they didn't develop vaccine....




it would be important how the analysis and calculation were done. Who did it? IISc has many departments - which department did the analysis and if possible name? metullurgy department, chemistry department, physics department, material sciences department? Without an authentic name to the prediction, it is hard to believe and this can be considered as a "fake news".






Sain Pries

Only Ambani and Adani are flourishing and becoming prosperous day by day due to the blessing of this Feku government... While the rest of the country is in a deep recession with the collapsed economy...




the unplanned lockdown and the delayed testing put us here , while our neighbour countries with partial lockdown were able to not get affected like us



Anand Kumar

We are late and complacent. We have done this to ourselves.




My request to you donot publish such nagative information of prediction. These are dispressing news Also cannot acrtain these are compltly wring numbers as the basis n assuption might go wrong. AGAIN REQUEST PLS DO NOT PUBLISH SUCH DIPRESSING ARTICLES


Sain Pries

Only whatever is said by the FEKU P.M is right...Else all other research news or articles are fake and farce in this country...




We do not need the services of the Indian Institute of Science to understand the numbers and projection of Covid 19. We require IISc to help the nation fight Covid in a better way, as applicable to Indian scenario.



Prabhudoss Ramachandran

Our Modiji predicted Mahabharata war took 18 days and the war against Corona will be won in 21 days. Very few questioned his prediction.



S S Rajguru

While the world is trying hard for develo the cure and the vaccine for the disease these IISc idiots are making mathematical models to predict how much worse it becomes in coming days. Real white elephants. If the prediction comes out to be wrong people should beat these researchers with shoes.



Bandame Lyngdoh

Other foreign university like Oxford are busy with covid vaccine... Our university is soo lacking behind, they teach only A B C till Z, no practical use... Such a pathetic education...



Muralidhar Jyoti

Considering this report, we should cut the red tape and allow Bharat biotech & other pharma companies to go for last phase human trials of vaccine at a greater speed.



Lakshmi Narayanan

Absurd nos.



Jagdip Vaishnav

Pray God to protect lives of every one



Sanjoy Pandey

But, how to control the Corona pandemic ? Is there any way to do it ?



Abrakadabbraa Bk

India already had more than 50 lakh cases. It will hit 25 crores or 40 crores.



Manoharan Thangavelu

July 31st is the last date for lock down in many states. We find increasing cases everyday and guess it is possible if they remove the lockout


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