中国、日本和韩国，谁的未来最光明

Who has the brightest future, China, Japan, or South Korea?

中国、日本、韩国，谁的未来最光明？

以下是Quora读者的评论：

Magill Adrian

Now let’s look at the individual countries.

South Korea’s strengths include techonological innovation, a strong de ocracy (though this was recently challenged, the de ocracy still held strong), good educational standards and international cultural influences.

South Korea’s problems are found in the lack of opportunities for SME’s thanks to family run larger businesses shutting out the smaller enterprises, a lack of labour in the agricultural sector due to a large number of younger people moving to urban centres, as well as the environmental risks associated with industrial pollution from not only internal sources, but China and North Korea as well.

Whereas China is South Korea’s largest trading partner it is aligned politically more with the west. Until recently this was represented by the US, but since Trump’s trade wars we have seen a dramatic shift away from dependence upon US military strength and development of military systems, especially naval systems. Closer cooperation with Japan, Australia, Canada, the UK and the EU, especially in military matters have been apparent. While South Korea is still, very much, in the same political ballpark as the US, its western affiliations are set to grow to work with a more diversified and de ocratically aligned group of allies on several fronts, including military and economic. As other allies pull their business away from dealing with the US, South Korea stands to gain from the vacuum in technology and military sales.

现在让我们来看看各个国家的情况。

韩国的优势包括技术创新、稳固的民主制度（尽管近期面临挑战，但民主根基依然牢固）、良好的教育水平以及国际文化影响力。

韩国的问题在于：家族经营的大型企业排挤中小企业，导致中小企业机会匮乏；大量年轻人涌入城市中心，造成农业领域劳动力短缺；此外，不仅国内工业污染，来自中国和朝鲜的工业污染也带来了环境风险。

尽管中国是韩国最大的贸易伙伴，但韩国在政治上更倾向西方阵营。此前这主要体现在与美国的结盟，但自特朗普发起贸易战以来，韩国已显著减少对美国军事力量的依赖，并着手发展自身军事体系（尤其是海军系统）。韩国与日本、澳大利亚、加拿大、英国及欧盟的合作日益密切，在军事领域的协作尤为明显。虽然韩国在政治立场上仍与美国高度一致，但其西方盟友关系正朝着多元化方向发展，未来将在军事、经济等多个领域与民主阵营的盟友展开更广泛合作。随着其他盟友逐步减少与美国的商业往来，韩国有望填补技术和军事装备销售的空白。

China is the second largest economy in the world. It is a leader in many high tech areas, including A.I. and other sectors. Its economy is growing, but at a slower pace than is required.

Militarily, it is putting up a face of strength, often higlighted by naval power, which looks great on the surface, but many problems exst even there. Submarines sinking while docked, one of their aircraft carriers is hopelessly outdated (bought from the Ukraine government and was meant to be a casino before the took control) and the number of ships belies the fact that most of their ships are offshore patrol vessels, not capable of open water voyages.

中国是世界第二大经济体，在包括人工智能等许多高科技领域处于领先地位。中国经济仍在增长，但增速低于所需水平。

在军事方面，中国表面上展现出强大的姿态，尤其是海军力量常被突出强调。然而，即便在这一领域也存在诸多问题：潜艇在停靠时沉没，其中一艘航母严重过时（从乌克兰政府购买），且舰艇数量掩盖了一个事实 —— 大多数船只属于近海巡逻舰，不具备远洋航行能力。

Even as a founding member of BRICS, it faces challenges. BRICS was designed with one purpose: dethrone the USD as the world’s currency. As the US seems to be more capable of doing that on its own, the rivalries between the countries seem to be resurfacing, leaving China siding with Pakistan in its war against fellow BRICS member, India, for example.

It also has not dealt with the “middle income trap risk” as economists put it. China has to transition from investment-led to productivity to innovation-based growth or risk a dying economy. Given the current internal and external pressures, this is becoming increasingly unlikely.

Whereas it has been repeatedly pointed out that China is set to overtake the US in GDP standings, very few people are acknowledging the fact the the US is falling on its own. This does not mean China is doing well. It isn’t. It is putting up the illusion of strength in a “fake it til you make it” scenario.

Japan has a strong and growing military (yes, let’s call it a military despite the constitution not allowing anything but “self defence forces.”) a strong economy, highly educated population, technological advancements in A.I., green technology, medicine and other major fields, and, unlike China, international trust/respect.

即使作为金砖国家的创始成员国，中国也面临诸多挑战。金砖国家的设立宗旨单一：就是要让美元失去世界货币的地位。由于美国似乎更有能力自行达成这一目标，成员国之间的竞争也开始重新显现，例如中国在巴基斯坦与同为金砖成员国的印度的冲突中选择站在巴基斯坦一边。此外，正如经济学家所言，中国尚未化解 “中等收入陷阱” 的风险。中国必须从投资驱动型增长转向生产力和创新驱动型增长，否则就面临经济衰退的风险。鉴于当前内外部压力，这种转型的可能性正变得越来越小。

尽管人们反复指出中国有望在 GDP 排名上超越美国，但很少有人承认美国自身正在衰落这一事实。这并不意味着中国发展得很好。事实并非如此。中国只是在营造一种强大的假象，上演着 “假装强大直到真的强大” 的戏码。

日本拥有强大且不断发展的军事力量（是的，尽管宪法不允许其拥有除 “自卫队” 之外的任何武装，但我们仍可以称之为军队）、强劲的经济、受教育程度高的人口，以及在人工智能、绿色技术、医疗等主要领域的技术进步。而且，与中国不同，日本获得了国际社会的信任与尊重。

It’s troubles come from an aging population and low birth rate. Old school mentalities, especially among employers, seem to limit the amount of growth companies experience. It, like the other two countries discussed here, has a problem with the urban-rural divide as many young people flock to cities to look for work. Also like the other two countries, there is a problem with gender inequality, though it is not determined to be stronger or weaker in Japan compared to others.

Japan has a unique geographical advantage over the other two countries, however. It sits at the midway point between emerging markets in SE Asia, Australia, New Zealand, and other countries. This makes it a logical stop point for international trade and transit routes.

Japan is the home to both major international giants like Toyota, Mitsubishi and other companies, as well as smaller companies. It is a major economy that commands international respect. It is slowly introducing foreign workers into its work force, indicating the recognition of the need for change more so than its counterparts (China, South Korea, and other Asian countries) and is working with other countries in the west to both strengthen ties to those countries and build itself.

日本的困境源于人口老龄化和低出生率。守旧的思维模式，尤其是雇主群体的观念，似乎限制了企业的增长空间。与文中讨论的另外两个国家一样，日本存在城乡差距问题，许多年轻人涌入城市寻找工作。同样和另外两国类似的是，日本也面临性别不平等问题，尽管目前尚无法判定其性别不平等状况比其他国家更严重或更轻微。

然而，日本相比另外两国拥有独特的地理优势。它位于东南亚新兴市场、澳大利亚、新西兰等国家的中间位置，成为国际贸易和运输路线的合理中转点。

日本既有丰田、三菱等国际巨头企业，也有众多中小企业。作为一个备受国际尊重的主要经济体，日本正逐步引入外籍劳工，这表明日本比其他亚洲国家（如中国、韩国等）更意识到变革的必要性，并且正在与西方国家合作，以加强双边联系并实现自身发展。

Summary:

To answer the question, I believe Japan is in the best position of the three to enjoy a bright future. Both Japan and South Korea enjoy good relations with much of the developed world, are technologically strong, and face similar challenges. However, Japan’s advantages come from having a better geographical position, older and more established companies, an equally strong international reputation as a friendly and reliable partner, and a greater economic reach. China, on the other hand, thanks to it’s “one child - now three child” policy has shot itself in the foot. It has developed a bad reputation so much to the point that one uneducated President of the US is bringing both countries down while the rest of the world diversifies trade from both giants.

In the end, my projection is that Japan is on top, with South Korea as a close second and China… well… let’s just say I won’t be investing there anytime soon.

总结：要回答这个问题，我认为在三个国家中，日本的未来最光明。日本和韩国都与大部分发达国家关系良好，技术实力雄厚，且面临相似的挑战。然而，日本的优势在于其更优越的地理位置、历史更悠久且更成熟的企业、作为友好可靠伙伴的同等强大国际声誉，以及更广的经济影响力。另一方面，东大的 “独生子女” 政策，搬起石头砸了自己的脚。声誉受到影响

最终，我的预测是日本位居榜首，韩国紧随其后，而中国…… 这么说吧，我短期内不会在那里投资。

Louis Cohen

It what respect? China has a much bigger total economy than either of those countries, but not on a per capita basis. China, like Japan and South Korea is a manufacturing and exporting power.

In order to catch up in per capita income, China would need to:

Improve education in rural areas
Accommodate even bigger internal migrations from the countryside to cities
Reduce Party interference in the financial system
Cut back on defense spending

在哪些方面呢？中国的总体经济规模比这两个国家（日本、韩国）中的任何一个都大得多，但人均水平并非如此。和日本、韩国一样，中国也是制造业和出口大国。

如果要在人均收入方面追赶，中国需要：

改善农村地区的教育

容纳更多从农村到城市的内部人口迁移

减少政党对金融体系的干预

削减国防开支

Mark Ericson
Will China be next Japan or Korea?

China will be China. It will not be the next anything.

中国会成为下一个日本或韩国吗？

中国只会是中国，不会成为‘下一个’任何国家。

Jesuan Wu
China will be the old China, again.

Until the incredible British Industrial Revolution, China has been the dominate cultural, economic and military power in its known world throughout millenniums, except for when it was fragmented into warring factions.

China is united today, and there’s no longer this huge technological gap with the West, in fact China already leads in some of the cutting edge techs of our days. So China will return to its old spot at the top of the world, an expectation that most of 1.4 billion Chinese hold, and that China should have a much better claim, by mandate of heaven, than the extremely aggressive, expansionist and constantly warring Anglo Saxons of the past two centuries.

中国将再次成为 “古老的中国”。

在不可思议的英国工业革命之前，数千年间，除了分裂为诸侯混战的时期，中国在世界中一直是占主导地位的文化、经济和军事强国。

如今的中国是统一的，与西方不再存在巨大的技术差距，事实上中国已在当今一些尖端科技领域领先。因此，中国将重返世界之巅 —— 这是 14 亿中国人的普遍期待，而且相较于过去两个世纪极具侵略性、扩张主义且战乱不断的盎格鲁 - 撒克逊人，中国更有理由凭借 “天命” 占据这一地位。

Hong Hwa Lee
Which country has more potential to become an economic powerhouse: China, Japan or South Korea? Why do you think so?

What do you mean ‘potentially’? They all are already economic powerhouses unless your definition is ‘biggest economy in the world’.

Only differences between them are:

—China’s only way up is to overtake the US since it is the second biggest economy in the world. Will it happen? I would say very likely if the current round of attempts by the US to constrain China fails. Will the US fail? Who knows? However, if I were a betting man, I would say there is less than an even 50–50% chance since it looks irreversible now. Be that as it may, I don’t think it is a single digit possibility, either.

—The Japanese and South Korean stories are very different. The only way for them are down—probably mainly relatively but even absolutely as well. The two factors work here. There are economies that are up and coming that will inevitably overtake them in time. Both countries already ‘aged’, but becoming more so. Their populations are both declining, and they are not willing/cannot do anything about that. Improvements in productivity will soon be inadequate to prop up the respective economies.

问：中国、日本和韩国，哪个国家更有潜力成为经济强国？你为什么这么认为？

答：你说的“潜力”是什么意思？除非你指的是“世界最大经济体”，否则这三个国家已经都是经济强国了。

它们之间的唯一区别在于：

— 中国作为世界第二大经济体，唯一的上升路径是超越美国。这会发生吗？如果美国当前遏制中国的努力失败，我认为可能性很大。美国会失败吗？谁知道呢？不过，如果我是个赌徒，我会说概率不到50%，因为现在局势看似不可逆转，但我也不认为这是个位数的可能性。

— 日本和韩国的情况则大不相同。它们的唯一趋势是下行——可能主要是相对下行，但也可能绝对下行。有两个因素在起作用：新兴经济体迟早会不可避免地超越它们；两国都已进入老龄化社会，且还在加剧，人口持续减少，而它们不愿/也无法改变这一点。生产力的提升很快将不足以支撑各自的经济。

Phen Su
China Japan and Korea are very similar in race and culture.

China has a market.

Japan has technology.

Korea has fashion.

We will unite to create the Asian century.

中国、日本和韩国在种族和文化上非常相似。

中国拥有庞大市场，日本掌握先进技术，韩国引领时尚潮流。

我们将携手共创亚洲世纪。

Mike Chiew

These three countries and Russia are set to become the brightest in the world for the coming decades. They are hard working, innovative, knowledge seeking people, love to discover new inventions, self confidence, never say die attitude, fair amount of IQ, loyal to their countries, great vitality, highly responsible people, having great quality governing leaders, great at motivation, good education systems, character building and fight corruption at the roots.

All these qualities are hard to emulate by others and they never rest on their laurels if the answers are not found. East Asians traditionally have stronger country loyalty mindsets with good encouragement from family, it's certainly a strong point to drive their countries to the pinnacle of economy success.

这三个国家（中国、日本、韩国）和俄罗斯将在未来几十年成为世界上最耀眼的国家。他们拥有勤劳、创新、求知的人民，热衷于发明创造，充满自信、永不言弃的态度，具备相当的智商，忠于国家，充满活力，肩负高度责任感，拥有卓越的治国领袖，擅长激发动力，具备良好的教育体系、品格培养机制以及从根源打击腐败的能力。

所有这些特质都难以被他国效仿，而且他们如果未找到答案，绝不会固步自封。传统上，东亚人在家庭的良好培养下建立了更强的国家忠诚意识，这无疑是推动国家走向经济成功巅峰的强大动力。

Anatolii Vadimovich Soloshonok
Which country has more potential to become an economic powerhouse: China, Japan or South Korea? Why do you think so?

They all are already. Long term certainly because of demographics but in the ultra modern economy all three exst in its a fair game, just depends on a multitude of factors. Japan and Korea are more integrated into global “western” economy. They have more soft power per capita and a more complex economy but ultimately China bares all the weight.

问：中国、日本和韩国，哪个国家更有潜力成为经济强国？

这三个国家已经都是经济强国了。从长期来看，当然要考虑人口结构因素，但在超现代经济中，三国都处于公平竞争状态，这取决于众多因素。日本和韩国与全球“西方”经济的融合度更高，人均软实力更强，经济结构也更复杂，但最终中国的体量占据绝对优势。

Richard Tang
Which Asian country do you think will be most advanced in the future: Japan, China or South Korea? Why? What are the reasons supporting your choice of that country over others?

China for sure.

China is already the most advanced country in Asia. Well, maybe in every line but in most of them.

When it comes to space technology, China is the only country has and operates a space station and China will soon send human being to the Moon again.

When it comes to IT, China has the largest, most successful IT companies except the US, including Tencent, Alibaba, Tiktok and a lot more.

问：你认为未来哪个亚洲国家会最先进：日本、中国还是韩国？为什么？

答：肯定是中国。

中国已经是亚洲最先进的国家了。嗯，或许不是所有领域，但大多数领域都是如此。

说到航天技术，中国是唯一拥有并运行空间站的国家，而且很快将再次把人类送上月球。

在信息技术方面，除美国外，中国拥有规模最大、最成功的IT企业，包括腾讯、阿里巴巴、抖音等等。

When it comes to Industry, China is the only country with a complete industrial system, recognised by the UN. The industrial outcome of China equals that of Japan, Germany and the US combined.

When it comes to military, China has more carriers than any country, but the US. China is able to manufacture the only stealth jet fighter except the US.

Sure, there are still some areas China is not doing well at, but China is catching up quickly. The US is trying everything possible using all the tools they have from their toolbox, such as the denial of access to chip, but with the sanction on, China will be able to manufacture our own chips sooner than expectation and chips will be cheap as sand afterwards.

Sooner or later, China will be the most advanced country of the world, and the world will be very different afterwards. We will finally be able to see a world with peace, prosperity and harmony in the future coming shortly.

论工业，中国是联合国认可的唯一拥有完整工业体系的国家，工业产值相当于日本、德国和美国的总和。

军事上，中国的航母数量仅次于美国，还能自主研制除美国之外唯一的隐身战斗机。

当然，中国在一些领域仍有不足，但正在快速追赶。美国正不择手段地动用一切工具——比如限制芯片供应，但在制裁之下，中国自主制造芯片的速度会比预期更快，之后芯片价格将便宜如沙。

中国迟早会成为世界上最先进的国家，届时世界将焕然一新。我们很快就能迎来一个和平、繁荣、和谐的世界。

Nathan James

There’s no question about it: China.

Japan’s economy has been stagnant for the past 30 years. There’s absolutely no reason to believe that Japan can turn this around.

South Korea’s population is 3.7% that of China’s. Population size alone guarantees that China has a brighter future.

China is leading the world in most technological areas, especially AI and robotics, as well as 5G and 6G.

China’s signature Belt and Road program cements China’s future as the #1 economic world power. This is in addition to RCEP, the world’s largest free trade zone.

毫无疑问是中国。

日本经济已停滞30年，完全没有理由相信日本能扭转这一局面。

韩国人口仅为中国的3.7%，单凭人口规模就足以保证中国的未来更光明。

中国在大多数科技领域领先世界，尤其是人工智能、机器人技术以及5G和6G。

中国标志性的“一带一路”倡议巩固了其作为世界第一经济强国的未来，此外还有世界最大的自由贸易区RCEP。

Sonei Fu

Of course China. China will still be in relative rapid growth for next 20 years, and will replace US as world dominating power. Japan is in steady decline, will be just like a province(like Guangdong, of similar population) of China economically in 20 years. South Korea has more potential of growth than Japan but is also more fragile. However there's also a possibility that once China replaced US as the only power in Asia, Japan&South Korea might join China's economic circle and grow again with China.

当然是中国。中国在未来20年仍将保持相对快速的增长，并将取代美国成为世界主导力量。日本正稳步衰落，20年后在经济上可能就相当于中国的一个省份（比如人口规模相近的广东省）。韩国比日本更有增长潜力，但也更为脆弱。不过，一旦中国取代美国成为亚洲唯一的主导力量，日本和韩国也有可能加入中国的经济圈，随中国一起再次发展。

Dan Kim

The three countries’ economic futures are intertwined. All three nations have relatively bright future as they collectively hold key advantages in technologies that will shape the future of human race. In terms of raw potential, China’s rise still has long ways to go and China’s rise will continue to fuel economic growth of Korea and Japan.

这三个国家的经济未来相互交织，都拥有相对光明的前景，共同在将塑造人类未来的技术领域占据关键优势。就原始潜力而言，中国的崛起仍有很长的路要走，而中国的崛起将继续推动韩国和日本的经济增长。

Andy C

japan is a mature economy,doesnt have much room to grow, korea is almost mature too. China on the other hand still has a lot of room to grow.

China has both man power and a lot of natural resources.

I say, economically, China

日本是成熟经济体，增长空间不大，韩国也近乎成熟。而中国仍有很大发展空间。

中国既有充足的人力资源，也有丰富自然资源。

所以我认为，经济上看是中国。