日本害怕中国的复兴吗

Is Japan afraid of China's revival?

日本害怕中国的复兴吗？

以下是Quora读者的评论：

Frank Cai

I think there is a subtext to this question: "China will take revenge, and there will be a war between China and Japan." As a Chinese, I don't think war is a good thing for both country.

In fact that Japan has played an important role in China's reform and opening up since the 1980s. This is not just about providing loans and investments, but also about imparting technology and experience. In a sense, without Japan's role, China's reform and opening up would never have achieved today's results smoothly. There are many such examples around me, and many factories invested by Japanese are still operating and producing today. Judging from today's results, Japan‘s action represent “hopes that China can get better development and the people can get rid of poverty.” From a longer-term perspective, the two countries have a history of nearly 2,000 years of exchanges, and the period of peaceful is far greater than the period of conflict.

It’s better to look forward, as challenges and opportunities coexst.

我认为这个问题背后有一层潜台词：“中国会报复，中日之间会爆发战争。” 作为中国人，我认为战争对两国都不是好事。

事实上，自20世纪80年代以来，日本在中国改革开放进程中扮演了重要角色。这不仅体现在提供贷款和投资，还包括传授技术与经验。从某种意义上说，没有日本的参与，中国改革开放可能无法顺利取得今日的成就。我身边有很多这样的例子，许多日资工厂至今仍在运营生产。从今天的结果来看，日本当时的举动传递出“希望中国更好发展、人民摆脱贫困”的期许。从更长远的历史视角看，两国有着近2000年的交流史，和平相处的时间远多于冲突时期。

着眼未来或许更好，毕竟挑战与机遇并存。

US We

On a political level, Yes.

It’s the same sentiments as any country who has a rising hegemon right next door with a lot of bad history.

As for cultural and economic reasons, I don’t think they are as afraid as they seem judging from their interactions on this regard.

A lot of bad rhetoric over the years regarding Chinese tourists, immigrants, criminal and PLA aggressive action is non-stop in the media and among some common occurances, but the ties haven’t stop and it’s still growing on overall business and cultural exchanges. This might be due to simple pragmatism…and personal interests among SOME Japanese for foreign cultures though, especially those Sinophiles (who have always been there since begng of their written history).

在政治层面，是的。

这和任何一个邻国崛起为霸权的情绪相同。

至于文化和经济原因，从日本的互动来看，我认为他们看起来并不像那样害怕。

多年来，媒体不断出现关于中国游客、移民、犯罪和解放军激进行动的大量负面言论，且其中一些是常见现象，但两国关系并未停止，总体商业和文化交流仍在增长。这可能是由于简单的实用主义，以及部分日本人对外国文化的个人兴趣，尤其是那些亲华人士（自日本有文字历史以来就一直存在）。

Barnaby Yeh

No. They're more afraid of their kids not being able to afford getting married and having kids than any foreign boogeyman. The LDP might use China as an excuse to do nothing about the situation (as many right-wing governments have done in the past), but overall, Japanese are far more concerned over domestic issues than geopolitics.

Don't try to act like they're all scared or anything. Both China's militarization and economic boom are more exaggeration than fact.

不。他们更担心自己的孩子没钱结婚生子。自民党可能会像过去许多右翼政府一样，用中国作为借口对现状无所作为，但总体而言，日本人更关心国内问题而非地缘政治。

别表现得好像他们都很害怕什么一样。中国的军事化和经济繁荣更夸张。

Yausi Tamn

the people of Japan might be afraid but the spirit of Japan cannot be defeated Japan in the divine scheme is related and connected to too many powers there is no possibility that Japan will really be afraid of any one

日本民众或许会有所担忧，但日本的精神不可战胜。在神的安排中，日本与太多力量相连，是不可能真正惧怕某一个国家的。

Viv

Does Japan fear China as a superior who could press hard on their territorial claims with their big economy and military? Yes. Japan fears this and that’s why its so close to the US and kumbya’ing with India right now (I guess it will be the counter-relationship to China-Pakistan).

But something like…conquering Japan and full blown war crimes just for the hell of it is very far-fetched. I do see the fear on schizo Japanese right wing forums but I don’t know how representative it is of the average Japanese person (probably not).

日本是否会因为中国凭借庞大的经济和军事力量在领土主张上施加压力而恐惧？是的。日本对此感到担忧，这就是为什么它目前与美国关系密切，并与印度友好相处（我猜这是为了对应中巴关系）。

但诸如“为报复而征服日本”之类的说法实在牵强。我确实在一些极端的日本右翼论坛上看到过这种恐惧情绪，但不知道这在多大程度上能代表普通日本人（可能并不具有代表性）。

There’s really no reason that China would want to invade Japan. Japan invaded China because China was a huge chunk of continental land with loads of resources whereas Japan was a much smaller resource poor archipelago. Japan had wanted to conquer China for a very long time while China never had any interest in conquering Japan. Japan was across the sea (so quite a bit away) and had nothing special to offer to China. When China did invade Japan it was only under Mongol orders...who were the type of people who would just conquer random places because they could.

China wants to revive its former glory and become a bona fide superpower that could rival the US, but China committing a Naning-style atrocity on Japan as a form of “retribution” makes no sense. The Japanese soldiers who committed the Naning massacre were were extremely frustrated because they thought wng a war against China would be easy but the Chinese fiercely resisted Japan. To numb their pain and lower the violent inhibitions, their leaders would get them high on drugs which is why the Naning massacre was so crazy brutal that it shocked even the Nazis. Actually, I don’t know why right wing Japanese nationalists are so afraid of a Naning-style massacre happening to them anyway. Aren’t they the ones who keep denying it ever happened in the first place?

中国其实根本没有理由入侵日本。日本当年入侵中国，是因为中国作为大陆国家拥有丰富资源，而日本是资源匮乏的群岛国家，长期以来一直企图征服中国。但中国从未对征服日本有过兴趣——日本远在海外，对中国没有特殊价值。历史上中国对日本的“入侵”仅在蒙古统治时期发生过，而蒙古人是有能力征服就四处扩张的类型。

中国希望复兴昔日的辉煌，成为真正能与美国竞争的超级大国，但以“南京大屠杀”式的行径作为“报复”对中国毫无意义。当年的日本士兵极度沮丧，他们本以为轻易就能战胜中国，却遭到中国的激烈抵抗。事实上，我不明白为什么日本右翼民族主义者如此害怕类似南京大屠杀的事件发生在自己身上——他们不是一直否认南京大屠杀的存在吗？

Some invasion of Taiwan is way more likely than any “China is gonna conquer Japan!!” shit. There’s FAR stronger ideological, cultural, legal, historical, and strategic basis for an invasion of Taiwan and I don’t even see an invasion of Taiwan happening in my lifetime. Apart from the fact that China still isn’t powerful enough and does not have the capabilities to actually pull it off. It’s also not in tune with the way China operates. Their modus operandi is literally just Sun Tzu 101: “Appear weak when you are strong, and strong when you are weak”.

相比“中国要征服日本”，中国收复台湾的可能性要大得多。从意识形态、文化、法律、历史和战略基础来看，中国收复台湾的理由要充分得多，而我认为在有生之年不会看到武力收复台湾的情况发生。除了中国目前还不够强大、没有能力真正实现这一点之外，这也不符合中国的运作方式。中国的策略完全是《孙子兵法》的精髓：“能而示之不能，用而示之不用”。

Tòng Võ đả Việt Nam Dị Quốc

I think Japan is more afraid of the nature mother. The nature mother did the revival for China. China does not need to commit any crime to Japan, China is simply not Japan.

我认为日本更害怕自然之母。自然之母让中国复兴。中国无需对日本犯下任何“罪行”，中国就不是日本。

Sayaka Nakai

Yes, but not because we are afraid that Chinese would revenge for 14 years long Japan -China war. War was senseless and cruel and we are ashamed of the greed of of our grandfathers. We were completely beaten up because of our wrong doings. Many have lost their family, house and everything. We often blame ourselves and feel we were punished enough and forget about the people we had brought tragedies. Some people like to warn us “Don’t forget other Asians hate Japanese because of what our grand fathers did. Don’t make them sad or angry.” That avoid us to have honest conversation with Asian fellows and makes things more complicated.

About China, for most period of Japanese history, China meant a center of the world to Japanese. How to deal with China was a big agenda for every Japanese policy makers. For a long time, China was busy dealing with internal powers trying to be next emperor. This was good situation for Japan. We felt safe while china was having civil wars. Now that’s ended and china is expanding to the sea, many Japanese are afraid China would expand toward Japan. If we have to be punished again by accepting the rule by party and taught to be loyal to chinese, that will be a hell to many people.

The terror is so devastating that many don’t want to admit.

是的，但并非我们害怕中国人会为长达14年的中日战争复仇。战争是毫无意义且残酷的，我们为祖辈的贪婪感到羞愧。我们因自己的错误行径遭到彻底击败，许多人失去了家人、房屋和一切。我们常常自责，认为自己已受到足够惩罚，却忘记了我们给他人带来的悲剧。有些人喜欢警告我们：“不要忘记其他亚洲人因为我们祖辈的所作所为而憎恨日本人，不要让他们伤心或愤怒。”这使我们无法与亚洲伙伴进行坦诚的对话，并使事情变得更加复杂。

关于中国，在日本历史的大部分时期，中国对日本人来说意味着世界的中心。如何与中国打交道是每位日本决策者的重要议题。长期以来，中国内部势力忙于争夺皇位，这对日本来说是有利的局面。当中国发生内战时，我们感到安全。如今，这种局面已经结束，中国正在向海洋扩张，许多日本人担心中国会向日本方向扩张。如果我们不得不接受中国的统治，并被教导效忠中国，这对许多人来说将是一场灾难。

这种恐惧是如此强烈，许多人不愿承认。

Mert Toker

As far as I know, the Japanese invest directly in China for decades. They are getting their share of the pie just like American investors. Growing pie is better for everyone in the business.

Why someone shall think a rich and powerful neighbor is more dangerous than a hungry one? Wealth is good and Japan would take advantage of it. If China is richer, the better the Japanese exports are.

Chinese revival or growth model is based on economical models not military. Therefore whatever ‘’revival’’ means in this context it is probably about growth.

Assuming the political and military growth of China, things would even be better for Japan. America would eventually rely more and more on Japan against China and Japan’s influence zone would expand.

I guess it is better to be neighbors with China than being neighbors with a country in the middle of nowhere. No need for unnecessary jealousy.

据我所知，日本对中国的直接投资已持续数十年。他们像美国投资者一样，正在分得自己的那份蛋糕。不断扩大的市场对所有商业参与者都更有利。

为什么有人会认为一个富裕强大的邻国比一个贫穷的邻国更危险？财富是有益的，日本可以利用这一点。如果中国更富裕，日本的出口产品会更有市场。

中国的复兴或增长模式基于经济模式而非军事。因此，在这种情况下，无论“复兴”意味着什么，它很可能指的是经济增长。

假设中国的政治和军事影响力提升，情况对日本甚至可能更好。美国最终会越来越依赖日本来制衡中国，日本的影响范围也将扩大。

我想，与中国做邻居比与一个地处偏远的国家做邻居更好。无需不必要的嫉妒。

Bill Chen

First, two anecdotes.

A popular Japanese quoran blocked me after I made a comment on his answer waxng lyrical about Taiwanese loving all things Japanese.

What did I say to stir the hornet's nest?

I merely stated there are a sizable number of older Taiwanese who remember taiwan's days as a Japanese colony.

首先，讲两个轶事。

一位日本知名“Quora”用户在我评论他一篇大谈“台湾人热爱日本一切”的回答后，将我拉黑了。

我究竟说了什么触怒他？

我只是提到有相当多台湾老一辈人记得台湾曾是日本殖民地的时期。

Separately, I got in trouble as a young associate years ago when I was sent to the airport to pick up a Japanese lady lead engineer. She spoke good English and I was genuinely curious because she was the first Japanese person I had spoken to in the flesh. Naturally, I asked if this was her first time in singapore and she said no. After some counting, she shared it was her nth trip in the last 3 and a half years on the job.

It was then that I committed the faux pas, which must have been along the lines of “oh, did you know Japan occupied Singapore as syonan-to for 3 years and 8 months and we had to sing kimigayo?”

[I feel compelled to explain the train of thought. Singapore was a colony. I would have asked a brit did you know we had the union jack on our flag and sang God saved the queen until 1963? I didn't say to the lady “your grandfather slaughtered mine”.]

Yes, I was young and brash… once. I didn't feel anything amiss, except I was removed from the schedule for the rest of her trip. It was only after she left that my direct manager gave me an earful. The lady had hinted to the director (my manager's boss) that I was “rude and made her feel uncomfortable”.

So yes. One has to step carefully around fragile Japanese hearts when it comes to the history of this flag.

另外，多年前我还是一名年轻员工时遇到过一件麻烦事。当时我被派去机场接一位日本女首席工程师。她英语很好，而我因为她是我第一个面对面交谈的日本人，真心感到好奇。我自然地问她是否是第一次来新加坡，她回答说不是。算过之后，她分享这是她过去三年半里因工作第N次来新加坡。

就在那时，我犯了失礼的错误，大概说了类似“哦，你知道日本曾将新加坡占领为‘昭南岛’三年零八个月吗？我们当时还得唱《君之代》”这样的话。

（我觉得有必要解释一下我的思路。新加坡曾是殖民地。如果是英国人，我可能会问“你知道我们的国旗上曾有英国米字旗，直到1963年还在唱《天佑女王》吗？”我并没有对那位女士说“你祖父屠杀了我的祖父”之类的话。）

是的，我曾经年轻鲁莽……我当时没觉得有什么不妥，只是在她接下来的行程中我被从安排中移除了。直到她离开后，我的直属经理把我训了一顿。那位女士曾向总监（我经理的上司）暗示我“粗鲁，让她感到不舒服”。

所以是的。在涉及日本侵略历史时，人们必须小心对待日本人敏感的心态。

Looked another way, the japanese are cognizant that every coin has two sides and they are terrified about retribution from two generations of Japanese aggression and unspeakable abuse.

Unfortunately, American military protection offers no refuge to the fact that it is China buttering up the Japanese economy. China is the biggest trading partner, and irreplaceable. Even japanese eel and rice are Chinese imports today.

Japan will do well to tone down on the American driven anti-china rhetoric, and treat both sides with the same degree of respect, especially when it comes to Taiwan and diaoyu. The Chinese will have few qualms making an example of Japan if it crosses the line. Recent statements from the new administration is worrying, precisely because Japan is speaking with a tone beyond what is appropriate.

Japan is a nation on a controlled crash. It hasn't landed yet. Japan should be worried about figuring out the context of Japan's positioning as china's neighbor, rather than America's stooge in the 21st century.

All bets are off if Japan crosses the line on Taiwan. Shimonoseki is still a raw wound in the Chinese memory.

换个角度看，日本人清楚任何事物都有两面性，他们对两代人所犯下的侵略和难以言喻的暴行可能带来的报复感到恐惧。

中国是日本最大的贸易伙伴，且不可替代。如今就连日本的鳗鱼饭食材都是从中国进口的。

日本最好降低美国推动的反华言论声调，并以同等程度尊重各方，尤其是在涉及台湾和钓鱼岛的问题上。如果日本越界，中国将毫不犹豫地以日本为例。日本新政府最近的言论令人担忧，恰恰是因为日本说话的语气超出了适当的范围。

日本正处于一场可控的危机中，但尚未触底。日本应该担心的是如何明确自身作为中国邻国的定位，而不是成为21世纪美国的傀儡。

如果日本在台湾问题上越界，一切都将失去控制。《马关条约》在中国人的记忆中仍是一道未愈的伤痕。