China-EU Trade Talks: Who Has The Upper Hand? 5 Things To Know | FP Explains

中欧贸易谈判：谁占据上风？五大要点解析

EU Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič heads to Beiing on Thursday for two days of make-or-break talks with Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao.

Brussels set October as the deadline for "tangible" results on a trade relationship that left the EU with a deficit of about €360 billion last year, close to €1 billion a day. France and Germany are pushing for a powerful new tool to restrict Chinese access to the EU market, while Beiing has opened a fresh anti-dum probe into EU chemicals just days before the talks.

So who really holds the upper hand, Europe or China? Here are five things to know ahead of the talks.

欧盟贸易专员马罗什・谢夫乔维奇将于周四前往北京，与中国商务部部长王文涛举行为期两天的谈判，这次谈判是否能成功，成败在此一举。

欧盟设定10月为最后期限，要求双方在贸易关系上拿出实质性成果。去年欧盟对华贸易逆差约3600亿欧元，平均每天逆差10亿欧元。法德两国正推动出台一项强有力的新工具，限制中国进入欧盟市场；而就在谈判前数日，中方刚刚对欧盟化工产品发起新一轮反倾销调查。

那么，欧洲和中国，到底谁手握主动权？谈判开始前，我们应该了解以下这五点：

1、贸易严重失衡，欧盟认定 “第二次中国冲击” 已经到来

2、欧盟谈判诉求：限制中国重点行业出口、扩大欧洲对华出口、保障稀土供应

3、欧洲内部立场发生重大转变：德法统一战线，准备推出贸易防御新工具

4、中国手里的王牌：稀土供应链近乎全球垄断

5、欧盟手中的关键筹码：4.5 亿人的单一消费大市场

以下是印度网友的评论：

thoraero
How did the last time Europe solve trade deficit with china?
Answer: with opium
Now they are complaining since they can't do the same.

欧洲上一次是怎么解决对华贸易逆差的？

答案：靠鸦片。

如今他们没法再对中国用这种手段，就开始叽叽歪歪了

chanhonming3723
true true! Also when their goods are not selling well, they complain

说得对！只要欧洲自己的商品卖不出去，他们就会抱怨。

bradleyp3655
That was the British not Europe.

那是英国人干的事，是英国人对中国贩卖鸦片，不是整个欧洲干的。

esense9602
​@bradleyp3655 no one blink an eye when Brits did it, they even take advantage of it.

 当年英国对中国贩卖鸦片的时候，没人提出反对，其他国家甚至还从中获利。

thoraero
The opium war was of the British, naturally. But opium smuggling was much more widespread than that.

鸦片战争当然是英国发起的。但鸦片走私的范围远比这更广。

 

sweetpotato3910
If you want to avoid a deficit with China, it is very simple, don't buy Chinese products. But the question is, can Europe stop buying Chinese products? The answer is no.

想消除对华贸易逆差很简单，不买中国货就行。但问题来了，欧洲能做到不买中国产品吗？答案是不能。

 

davidyuen7282
EU self inflicted economic disaster supporting the Ukraine war. Cut herself off cheap Russian gas. Backwards technology. Instead of correcting her own problems just like US blame it on China. When EU sells cars to China is not over capacity & upheld the competition principle when China is at a disadvantage. When China is wng over capacity is the excuse to stop Chinese import.

欧盟因为支持乌克兰战争，给自己招来经济灾难。不再使用廉价的俄罗斯天然气，技术发展滞后。他们不去解决自身问题，反倒和美国一样，把锅甩给中国。欧盟向中国出口汽车的时候，就不提产能过剩，还大谈公平竞争；等到中国汽车占了上风，就拿产能过剩当借口，限制中国商品进口。

LoC28C
Exactly ! ! !

说得太对了！

 

never4ever386
Who can you blame when it’s the Europeans who are buying Chinese goods because they are better value. No one is holding a gun to their head. Be more innovative and make better value products then!

欧洲人自己觉得中国商品性价比高才愿意购买，这能怪谁？没人拿枪逼着他们买。与其抱怨，不如多搞创新，造出性价比更高的产品！

 

pkwong1940
Bring it on! The gloves will come off. Nothing to talk about. Europe do not need to buy. But impose tariffs and you will get counter-tariffs. Impose sanctions and you will see counter-sanctions.

放马过来！那就撕破脸。没什么好谈的。欧洲可以不买中国货。但只要加征关税，就会迎来中国的对等关税；只要实施制裁，就会遭遇中国的反制裁。

 

francisiiman9932
The EU is barking up the wrong tree. Instead of confronting its own economic and technological failures, it blames China for problems of its own making. Ironically, the EU now seeks to sever its dependence on Chinese supply chains—effectively cutting the very umbilical cord that sustains its industrial lifeblood. In its attempt to weaken China, the EU risks strangling its own economy.

欧盟找错了目标。他们不去正视自身经济与技术上的短板，反倒把自己问题归咎于中国。讽刺的是，欧盟现在想切断对中国供应链的依赖，相当于剪断维持自身工业命脉的脐带。想要打压中国，最后反而可能拖垮自己的经济。

 

Liboch
Energy cost in Europe is wayy too high, it makes everything more expensive. In that scenario how can they make their products more competitively priced to compete with China, or USA, or everyone else? No matter how hard their negotiations will be, their problem will still be there unless they get a competitive price of energy. This unsustainable.

欧洲能源成本太高，抬高了所有商品的价格。这种情况下，他们怎么生产出价格有竞争力的产品，和中国、美国以及其他国家竞争？不管谈判多卖力，只要能源价格降不下来，问题就会一直存在。这种局面无法长久维持。

 

leahcasey2678
Maybe the EU allowing a US-led NATO to start a proxy war on its border and then blow-up their gas pipelines was a mistake? Remember when the US forced the EU to rip-out Huawei's affordable and reliable 5G networks and adopt CIA-friendly American 5G networks? Remember when the US stated that it planned to economically annex Greenland, Canada and Cuba ... well, it turns-out, they meant it.

欧盟允许美国主导的北约在自家边境挑起代理人战争，之后天然气管道又被炸，这会不会本身就是个错误？还记得美国逼迫欧盟拆掉性价比高、性能稳定的华为5G，改用对美国中情局有利的美国5G设备吗？还记得美国曾宣称打算从经济上吞并格陵兰、加拿大和古巴吗？事实证明，他们是认真的。

 

LoC28C
Maybe the European Union was trying very hard to to commit economic suicide but it just wasn't painful enough so now they blame their economic suicide on China then they plunged another deep cut in to their economic vein and hope to inflict more pain on the European people.

或许欧盟一心想要搞经济自残，只是痛感还不够。于是他们把经济衰败的责任推给中国，继续给自己的经济大动脉狠狠割一刀，最后受苦的还是欧洲民众。

 

ndukasmith
You make some rules. Then they start to adjust themselves according to your rules. Then as soon as you see them wng. You start to change the goal posts. When the United States was doing their Inflation Reduction Act. I didn't see the EU talk about how that was supposed to affect the industrial heartlands. And talk about the deficits and things like that.

你定下一套规则，别人跟着规则调整。可一旦别人取得优势，你就修改评判标准。美国出台《通胀削减法案》的时候，我没看到欧盟站出来，说这会冲击工业核心区，也没提贸易逆差这类问题。

 

leahcasey2678
Less than 20% of VW's cars are actually sold in Germany ... the other 80% are exported. Around 70% of BYD's cars are sold in China ... the other 30% are exported. WTF is "overcapacity"? In 2025, almost 5x as many VW cars were sold in China as were sold in the USA, Canada and Mexco combined! And VDL thinks China's the enemy?

大众汽车在德国本土的销量不到20%，剩下80%都是出口。比亚迪大约70%的汽车在国内销售，仅30%用于出口。那所谓的“产能过剩”到底是什么？2025年，大众在中国的销量，几乎是美加墨三国总销量的五倍！可VDL还把中国当成敌人？

 

manhwa963
Yes, yes they did. They said how they are going to retaliate back. They bore a deep hatred on the US like France, because they used to be a great power and now they cannot compete with American on military and economic. America, white people so china and Russia doesn't exsted to them to be so hostile.

没错，他们扬言要报复。像法国一样，他们对美国心怀怨恨。曾经他们也是大国，如今在军事、经济上竞争不过美国。美国一些白人对中国和俄罗斯抱有很强的敌意。

 

上帝的小熊猫
I am from China. China wanted to purchase lithography machines from Europe, but Europe obeyed U.S. orders and banned their sale to China! No matter what China wants to buy, Europe refuses to sell this or that! Since you have chosen to heed U.S. orders, we have nothing more to say!

我来自中国。中国原本想从欧洲购买光刻机，但欧洲听从美国的指令，禁止向中国出售！只要中国特别想买的，欧洲就是不肯卖。既然你们选择听从美国命令，那我们没什么好说的！

9884664
ASML legally can't sell anything without US approval because the USA holds most of its patents. This is not a question of whether Europe wants to or does not

没有美国许可，阿斯麦不能最中国出售光刻机啊，大量专利掌握在美国手里。这件事不是欧洲想不想卖的问题。

 

167mm167
EU must stop buying products from China
欧盟必须停止购买中国商品。

 

LoC28C
​ @jamsheerap4857 because the European Union is committing economic suicide and blaming their economic failure on China.

欧盟在搞经济自残，还把经济失败的锅甩给中国。

 

manfunny917
@167mm167 Hope China starts boycotting EU products for real as well. No one in the world needs LV, Apple, Ferari or BMW

希望中国也抵制欧盟商品。世界上没人离不了LV、苹果（注：是美国商品）、法拉利、宝马。

 

aungkthein9570
Whatever happened to the WTO? EU was quite happy when the trade balance was in their favour.

世贸组织怎么不管了？以前贸易顺差在欧盟这边的时候，他们可满意了。

 

songtaoye8047
The products China need from Europe simply can’t sell to China according to Washington

中国想要从欧洲采购的产品，受美国限制，根本没法卖给中国。

 

xrejake1608
Get ready, a large-scale inflation in Europe is about to begin again.

做好准备，欧洲新一轮大规模通胀马上就要来了。

 

leahcasey2678
What does the EU allow to be exported to China ... cheese, wine, beer, planes, engines and more cheese. What does the EU not export to China ... ASML machines, minerals and instrumentation. What does China allow to be exported to the EU ... everything and anything. What does China not allow to be exported to the EU ... nothing, Maybe that's why the EU has a $1 billion/day trade deficit with China? VDL is an American agent working for Washington and the US defense industry.

欧盟允许卖给中国的东西：奶酪、葡萄酒、啤酒、飞机、发动机，还有更多奶酪。欧盟不肯卖给中国的：阿斯麦光刻机、矿产、精密仪器。中国可以出口给欧盟的：几乎所有商品。中国没有禁止对欧盟出口的商品。或许这就是欧盟每天对华贸易逆差高达10亿欧元的原因？VDL就是美国的代理人，为华盛顿和美国国防工业服务。

 

manfunny917
Exactly. What they allow to export to China are things Chinese never really need. No one in the world really needs LV, Apple, Balenciaga or BMW.

说得没错。他们允许卖给中国的商品，都不是中国刚需。全世界没人离不了LV、苹果、巴黎世家或者宝马。

 

faithplusworks3975
Well, the EU doesn't want to sell high value items (like Lithography machines) that China needs.

欧盟不愿意出售中国急需的高价值产品，比如光刻机。

 

hc1897
Yes, when your industry is basically defunct and people have no more jobs, you must immediately block all cheap imports from China and push up your own cost of living (and cost of production too) across the board. Makes perfect sense.

是啊，本土产业基本垮掉，民众失业。于是立刻封锁所有廉价中国进口货，全面抬高国内生活成本和生产成本。听起来逻辑很“完美”。

 

manhwa963
Look, EU is heavily dependent on imported gas and oil, expensive energy, high labour cost, lack of ship ports and rails, integrated supply chain. There are other factors taken in place.

你看，欧盟高度依赖进口油气，能源价格高，人工成本贵，港口、铁路配套不足，供应链整合也存在问题。还有很多其他因素在起作用。

 

jacintochua6885
Trade is voluntary. If imports are more than exports, trade deficits happen. Why is this so hard to understand? No one was forced to buy and import Chinese goods. How about Europe canceling all Chinese air conditioners orders and deal with the heat ?

贸易是自愿的。进口大于出口，就会产生贸易逆差。这点很难理解吗？没人强迫他们进口中国货。欧洲试试取消所有中国空调订单，看看怎么熬过酷暑？

 

LoC28C
The European Union committing economic suicide and blaming their economic failure on China this is ridiculous isn't it?

欧盟在搞经济自残，还把经济失败归咎于中国，这很荒唐，不是吗？

 

aclee7481
When Europe get hot, people need air-conditioners. They get them from China. When they get cold, they buy warm clothes from China. What can Europe sell to China? Technology? No more. Wines? Fashions? These aren't essential. Chinese can get them elsewhere. But Chinese have one soft spot: if you are nice to them, they will pay you back in return, in whatever forms

欧洲天热的时候，民众需要空调，从中国采购；天冷的时候，从中国买保暖衣物。

欧洲能卖给中国什么？高科技？不卖。

葡萄酒、奢侈品？这些不是必需品，中国人可以从别的地方买到。

但中国人有个特点：你善待他们，他们会回报你的。

 

MeruBetiri-x1e
China dengan senang hati akan membeli senjata canggih buatan Uni Eropa untuk menyeimbangkan neraca perdagangan

中国很乐意采购欧盟制造的先进武器，以此平衡贸易差额。

 

phytrie2017
You must blamed yourself...Simple method..stop buying chinese good and you will reduce the deficit...But can you do that? Impossible..You need Chinese goods more than china need eu

要怪只能怪自己。办法很简单，停止购买中国商品，逆差就能缩小。但你们做得到吗？不可能。欧洲对中国商品的需求，比中国对欧盟商品的需求更大。