Inside the Second China Shock Swee Across Europe

席卷欧洲的第二次中国冲击背后

China’s first trade shock hit the United States after it joined the WTO in 2001, hollowing out parts of American manufacturing. Now a new wave of Chinese exports is resha global trade with Europe increasingly in the crosshairs. We travel to Bavaria in Germany to see firsthand how local auto manufacturers are facing headwinds from China, and get analysis from economists David Autor and Stephanie Flanders on whether the ‘second China shock’ will echo the past or unfold very differently.

中国的第一次贸易冲击出现在2001年入世后，冲击了美国市场，让美国部分制造业日渐衰落。如今，中国出口的全新浪潮正在重塑全球贸易格局，欧洲也愈发成为这场浪潮的核心影响区。我们走进德国巴伐利亚，实地探访当地汽车制造商直面来自中国的发展阻力，同时也听听经济学家戴维·奥托尔与斯蒂芬妮·弗兰德斯的分析：这场“第二次中国冲击”，究竟会重蹈过往的覆辙，还是会走出全然不同的发展轨迹。

施魏因富特是德国汽车产业重镇，当地的约普集团作为奔驰、宝马、保时捷等知名车企的核心供应商，80% 的业务都聚焦汽车领域，却如今受中国新能源汽车崛起的冲击，面临德企电池技术和原材料获取受阻、对中汽车及零部件出口大幅下滑的困境，企业近年不得不关闭工厂、裁员 500 人，从 2000 人的规模缩减至 1500 人。受此影响，整个德国汽车行业就业人数从 2018 年的 80 万降至去年的 72 万，2025 年 9 月德国制造业整体就业人数也较去年减少 2%，汽车产业作为德国现代工业实力的核心支柱，正面临严峻的发展阻力。

如今欧洲遭遇的第二次 “中国冲击”，部分原因是美国对中国加征关税，推动中国开拓欧洲等新的海外市场，但这场冲击并非简单的商品转移，有着鲜明的特殊性。数据显示，中国并非将原本出口美国的商品转向欧洲，而是调低了部分对欧出口商品的价格，且出口增长分散在非洲、欧洲等多个地区，其中非洲因基数低增幅最大，欧洲的增幅仅在 1% 到 1.5% 之间。同时中国的出口结构早已升级，不再局限于低附加值的劳动密集型产品，如今已是世界级的汽车供应商、全球顶尖的新能源汽车生产商，在高端制造、重工业、消费品等多个领域都形成了强劲竞争，这也让此次对欧洲的冲击维度更为广泛。

值得注意的是，中国出口对欧洲的影响呈现出两面性，在让欧洲制造业承压的同时，也为欧洲各国央行提供了助力。中国向欧洲出口的部分商品价格走低，并未明显改变贸易整体规模，却在一定程度上拉低了欧洲部分国家的通胀水平，这也让欧洲央行的货币政策压力得到缓解，不少经济学家包括彭博社的专业人士，都认为欧元区今年的通胀率可能低于目标，欧洲央行或有进一步降息的空间。

以下是各国网友的评论：

nobody-mf8lw
German cars have been sold in China for over 40 years.

德国汽车进入中国市场销售，已经四十多年了。

jws5871
So true. The Germans dominated the market during their time. But apparently when a non-Western newcomer makes waves, it's definitely not allowed.

说得太对了。德国人当年也霸占着中国市场。可现在呢，非西方的新玩家想闯出名堂，就偏偏不被允许。

ChuckNorrizzed
All that overproduction is being swiftly shut down

那些过剩的产能，正被快速清退。

hyrenaj2888
Japan, Germany, and Korea have the biggest car exports relative to their markets, never mind the brands

不管什么品牌，日德韩三国的汽车出口量，相较于本国市场规模来说都是最大的。

jws5871
Western media complaining and co..

西方媒体也就只会抱怨、嘴硬罢了。

isuckatthisgame
Now it's the other way around. Chinese cars are being sold in EU.

现在风水轮流转了。中国汽车都卖到欧盟了。

TinyBlitz8
Now they’re going down as China has their own emerging car industry which has reached new industry levels

现在德国车企不行了，因为中国本土的汽车产业崛起了，还发展到了全新的高度。

Thekidisalright
Hey it's western media we don't talk about this.

呵呵，西方媒体才不会提这些事呢。

a11j
The terms of the deal matter, even though they were selling in China there were rules where China dictated the manufacturing and whole supply chain with most of the plants being in China and hiring Chinese, thus expanding and up skilling the population and forcing the foreign companies to pass over their know how.

合作的条款才是关键。他们虽然在中国卖车，但中国有相关规定，把控着生产和整个供应链。大部分工厂都建在中国，雇佣中国员工，既带动了就业、提升了国人技能，也逼着外企交出了核心技术。

Cuiejcj
VW sold cars in China since 1980s. They have made a lot of money there. They have nothing to complain about.

大众从八十年代就开始在中国卖车，赚得盆满钵满，根本没资格抱怨。

zuriyel5368
Considering Volkswagen's history with moustache-man, they should be glad that they're even allowed to exst.

想想大众和那个留小胡子的独才者的渊源，他们能被允许继续经营，就该偷着乐了。

prescient8972
VW didn't destroy any car manufacturer in China, because of their nonexstence. Thahnkfull China "borrowed" all German technologies including PV and now try to wipe out the entire German industrial complex with heavily subsidized cars and goods. It's an open secret that China subsidize all strategic high-tech industries including auto. Yes, China industrial clusters are very effective. But that doesn't mean all other countries should only grow corn, beans, potatos and wheat, work in mines and open pits for China. People and governments across the globe want to have their own industrial complexes. Can you imagine? P.S. that's ok to wipe out russian manufacturers. No objections

大众当年没搞垮中国的车企，因为那会儿中国根本就没什么车企。还好中国“借鉴”了德国包括光伏在内的所有技术，现在正靠着巨额补贴的汽车和商品，想搞垮整个德国工业体系。中国为包括汽车在内的所有战略性高科技产业提供补贴，这都是公开的秘密。没错，中国的产业集群确实很厉害，但这并不意味着其他国家都该只为中国种玉米、大豆、土豆、小麦，去矿场和露天矿打工。世界各国的人民和政府，都想拥有自己的工业体系。你能想象吗？补充一句：搞垮俄罗斯的制造业倒是没问题，没人反对。

briandong5293
@prescient8972 Europe starting subsidizing decades ago and then set up the anti subsidy policies targeting develo nations, which is basically kicking the ladder for years. Agriculture is a good example. You've flooded their markets with your subsidized agricultural goods and destroyed the livelihoods of so many farmers and then when another country does it to you cry and say its unfair.

欧洲几十年前就开始搞补贴了，后来又出台针对发展中国家的反补贴政策，说白了就是典型的过河拆桥。农业就是最好的例子。你们用补贴的农产品冲垮他们的市场，毁了无数农民的生计，现在别的国家也这么做，你们就哭天喊地说不公平。

user-tr1zj
@prescient8972 "borrow" what, Germany and VW's legacy gasoline vehicles? China isn't selling gas vehicles into Europe, they're selling new generation EVs, of which the shoe is one the other foot in Europe when it comes to domestic non-exstence.

谈什么“借鉴”？借鉴德国和大众的老式燃油车技术吗？中国根本就没往欧洲卖燃油车，卖的是新一代电动车。说到本土产业空白，现在欧洲才是那个技不如人的一方。

kagakai7729
@prescient8972 And China won't destroy any car manufacturers in your country because of their soon to be irrelevance. From how I see it, it's only fair!

中国根本用不着搞垮你们的车企，因为它们很快就会被时代淘汰。在我看来，这一切都是咎由自取，太公平了！

hutdgkbfr
I did some research: Germany exports 75% of their cars, China exports 20% of their cars, And Europe accuses China of "overcapacity".

我查了数据：德国生产的汽车75%都用于出口，中国只有20%，结果欧洲反倒指责中国“产能过剩”。

UmitovaPaige
overall China export only 40% of their economy, 60% Domestic.

中国的经济总量里，出口只占40%，60%都是国内消费。

MeowLo-tk3rm
And usa exports 70%+ of its farming products, dunno how much of their weapons, and may be 70% of their printed usd pushing inflation all over the world.

美国的农产品70%以上都用来出口，武器出口量就更不用说了。还有他们印的美元，怕是70%都流到了全世界，把通胀带得到处都是。

michaelhodge9870
lol if I make 100 cars 75% of that is 75, if i make 1000 20% that's 200.

哈哈，我造100辆车，75%出口就是75辆；我造1000辆车，20%出口就是200辆。

benlawton5420
It's almost as if 20% of a larger number can be more than 75% of a smaller number.

说白了，大数的20%，本来就可能比小数的75%还多。

patrickco2398
China shock? How about American shock, British shock, German shock when they were on a roll back in the days….hilarious.

中国冲击？那当年美国、英国、德国鼎盛时期，搞出来的各种冲击怎么说？真是滑天下之大稽。

lmuthaura1
when other coutries succeed its over capacity but when EU and US its ok ...u should try others tack ticks ...and soon US doller will loose is status.

其他国家发展好了，就是产能过剩；欧美这么干，就什么事都没有。你们也该换换套路了。用不了多久，美元的霸主地位就保不住了。

trebatthetop
Too bad for you China itself says it has an overcapacity problems. Duh.

真可惜啊，中国自己都承认有产能过剩的问题了，还用得着别人说。

eriksonyw
It was called Colonialism.

这在当年，可是叫殖民 主义。

711MasterBlaster
Germany have been relying on exports. Isn’t this is what the West called overcapacity?

德国一直靠出口过日子，这在西方眼里，难道不就是产能过剩吗？

haldir3120
Germany relies way more on Exports than the PRC. Export to GDP ratio is 42%. Only 20% for the PRC.

德国对出口的依赖程度，比中国高多了。德国的出口占GDP比重达42%，中国只有20%。

cia5649
no because the german market never produce more cars than they think can be actually sold within a relative good time, you dont see tons of 2024 vw at the dealership unless its a trade in.

不一样的，德国车企从不会生产超出预期销量的汽车，这些车都能在合理时间内卖出去。你不会在经销商那里看到成堆的2024款大众车，除非是置换车。

kayleekayt3306
Also the US has getting that shit for free. We basically bought your debt for you to buy our shit.

还有美国，一直白嫖好处。我们说白了就是买了你们的国债，你们才有闲钱买我们的东西。

SerbanDragne
'We're a family business. We want to get into the business of selling weapons'.

“我们是家族企业，现在想转行卖武器了。”

seanlee3863
A third of all German cars are sold in china. So if you want to talk about unfair.

德国生产的汽车，三分之一都卖到了中国。所以别跟我提什么不公平。

Sunnysky-643
China’s leaders really had grand long term vision, and they mobilized their industries to execute the vision. They knew they had to turn to green renewable energy, not relying gas or oil; they knew they had to have breakthrough technology on EV batteries, they did it. China plays chess, others play checker. They deserve to lift themselves out of poverty, climb up the value chain, to be a country with leading technologies.

中国的领导层真的有远大的长远眼光，还能调动产业力量去实现这个目标。他们早就知道要转向绿色可再生能源，不依赖油气；也知道必须在电动车电池技术上取得突破，最后真的做到了。中国在下大棋，其他国家却还在玩跳棋。中国理应摆脱贫困，向产业链高端迈进，成为拥有领先技术的国家。

CursedAmbition
I'm not really buying it. Production facilities worldwide are cutting headcount due to automation, not China.

我才不信这套说辞。全球的工厂都在裁员，原因是自动化升级，根本不是因为中国。

ambessaseway5594
Attacking your biggest market and insulting them has consequences.

得罪自己最大的市场，还出言诋毁，迟早要付出代价。

thewelshdragon.5979
Isn't this "Overcapacity" that the West is accusing China of practicing?

这不就是西方指责中国的那种“产能过剩”吗？

jws5871
'Overcapacity'... A term created last year specifically for China. This is the height of Western propaganda.

“产能过剩”，这个词就是去年专门为中国造的，西方的宣传手段也就到这地步了。

aaabbb-py5xd
America can manufacture "overcapacity" at will. After all, America can sanction any product, ban its supply, and then "overcapacity" will occur . It's about time we talked about the overcapacity that is Google, Facebook/Meta, Twitter/Xai/SpaceX, Chatgpt, Claude, basically all American tech companies. How about we do talk about them overcapacity eh?

美国想造多少“过剩产能”都行。毕竟美国可以随便制裁任何产品，禁止其供应，这样一来，所谓的“产能过剩”就出现了。也该说说美国那些科技公司的产能过剩了，谷歌、脸书、推特、太空探索技术公司，还有ChatGPT、克劳德，基本上所有美国科技巨头都算上。我们聊聊他们的产能过剩，怎么样？

AXJK946
Germany clearly has too much surplus capacity in automotive manufacturing.

很明显，德国的汽车制造业才是严重产能过剩。

Biliander
Nobody is talking about how much of this damage is self-inflicted by incompetent execs. Dieselgate or BMW subscription for heated seats for example. Well i'm sorry but the damage to the brand has already been done, even if you revert the subscription for heated seats, I'll never buy BMW because I just don't trust the brand anymore.

没人提这些损失其实都是车企高管无能造成的。比如大众的柴油门事件，还有宝马的座椅加热订阅服务。抱歉，品牌形象已经毁了，就算宝马取消了座椅加热订阅，我也绝不会买了，因为我再也不信任这个品牌了。

enigmatic-pisces
Inevitable that China would make some of the higher end products it has imported for decades.

中国进口了几十年的高端产品，如今自己能造了，这是必然的结果。

Pernsonal6054
Well Germany should stop flooding car market with cars, their auto industry clearly have an overcapacity: Roughly 75%–80% of all cars produced in Germany are exported.

德国就别再往市场上大量倾销汽车了，他们的汽车产业明显产能过剩：德国生产的汽车，大概有75%到80%都用于出口。

imerence6290
Reminds me of the Opium crisis in old China. Brits didn't have anything to sell since china had it all so they had to cheat the system and get em addicted to Opium lol. Seems like the west has nothing to sell this around either.

这让我想起了旧中国的鸦片战争。当年中国什么都有，英国人没东西能卖，就耍手段让中国人染上鸦片瘾，哈哈。现在看来，西方又没什么拿得出手的东西了。

继续阅读：欧洲   中国出口

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