Why Germany finds it so hard to handle China | Berlin Briefing Podcast

德国为何难应对中国

2025 has exposed Germany's dependence on China, as a source of rare earths and as a market and production site for its carmakers and other major industries. Berlin says it's committed to "de-risking" the relationship. But is it serious? Or is it in too deep?

2025年，德国对中国的依赖暴露无遗。中国是德国稀土来源地，也是德国车企及其他主要产业的市场与生产基地。德国政府称，致力于推动两国关系 “去风险”。但德国是真心实意吗？还是已深陷其中难以自拔？

近几十年来德国经济发展深陷三重 “依赖”，如同染上三种 “瘾”：一是俄罗斯廉价能源，二是美国的安全保障，三是中国经济高速增长带来的红利。如今德国已强行切断俄能源供应，也试图减少对美防务依赖，唯独对华依赖最难戒除，2026 年或将面临关键抉择。

德国对华依赖体现在两方面：一是中国作为德企核心出口市场，二是中国作为关键原材料供应地。

过去施罗德、默克尔执政时期，德国一直奉行 “双重标准”：一边高举人*道德大旗，一边紧抓中国市场红利，尤其车企布局极早 —— 上世纪 90 年代大众就与上汽合资，在华生产老旧车型，帕萨特更是成了中国官员标配座驾，从零培育出庞大市场。2000 年代初德企在华进入红利期，2010 年代欧债危机时，中国既是德企创收市场，还购买希腊债券支撑欧元区，成了默克尔眼中的 “救星”，此后中国长期稳居德国第一大贸易伙伴。

另一方面，中国凭借产业政策提前布局稀土等关键矿产，这类矿产开采污染大、成本高，中国依托体量优势实现低价供应，德国车企、电子等行业高度依赖，形成另一层深度绑定。

以下是印度网友的评论：

tedwong7037
When China was the underdog, all chinese govt officals bought tons of audi and vw, now Germany panicked with buying 200 buses from China?

当年东大还没起来的时候，东大的官员个个都买大批奥迪和大众。现在德国不过是向中国买200辆大巴，德国就慌成这样？

merrick6484
The problem with European politicians is that they still think they were the centre of the world, and represent "The world", but in reality, Germany (and EU) as a whole is decling and shrinking in population and influence. The actual world is bigger than US/EU. The sooner they realised the reality, the better policy can be made for benefits of European citizens.

欧洲政客的问题就是，还以为自己是世界中心，还觉得自己能代表“全世界”。可实际情况是，德国乃至整个欧盟都在衰落，人口在减少，影响力也在下降。真实的世界，远比美欧要大。他们越早认清现实，才能越早制定出造福欧洲民众的好政策。

terry1708
Germany sounds like they can handle US easily.

看这架势，德国对付美国倒是挺得心应手啊。

abm9621
You steal their technology and then dump subsidised overproductions into their markets - why are you even surprised by the pushback

你们偷了他们的技术，又把拿补贴堆出来的过剩产品低价倾销到他们市场。人家反击，你们居然还觉得意外？

FelipeKamolle
Germany is a vassal state to the US.

德国就是美国的附庸国。

yonasyonas1962
Japan is worse. It is literally a colony of the US . Check what they did to themselves signing The Plaza Accord to please the US

日本更惨，简直就是美国的殖民地。看看当年为了讨好美国，签下广场协议，把自己坑成什么样了。

jaunt3603
@yonasyonas1962 Japan was deliberately manipulating their currency. You left that part out. Both Germany and Japan started the two most destructive wars known to man.

日本当年是刻意操纵汇率的，你把这茬给漏了。再说了，德国和日本，可是挑起过人类历史上两场最具毁灭性战争的国家。

Amigos_de_Don_Eladio
Of course it is. Any country that has tens of thousands of foreign troops permanently stationed on its soil is a vassal.

那可不嘛。但凡本土常年驻扎着数万外国军队，那就是妥妥的附庸国。

faithplusworks3975
After decoupling with Russia, now it's China? Besides Europe, the US will be the only serious market left for Germany and that will deepen Germany's dependency on the US. Ask Canada how that over-dependency on the US market is working out for them.

刚和俄罗斯脱钩，现在又要对中国下手？除了欧洲本土，德国能指望的正经市场就只剩美国了，这只会让德国更依赖美国。去问问加拿大，过度依赖美国市场日子过得有多憋屈。

RedSunrisePartisan
Can Germany stop its China hysteria? Or does the US force them to continue with this opposition instead of cooperation

德国能不能别再对中国歇斯底里了？还是说，是美国逼着他们非要对抗、不肯合作？

NorCalMoDo
No nord stream to blow up for Germany-China relationship. What can it do?

想搞砸德中关系，又没北溪管道可以炸，美国还能有什么招？

louistan7560
Germany couldn't even stop the destruction of the Russian pipelines and stayed largely quiet with the subsequent investigation that smacks of acquiescence. What's more with China.

俄罗斯输气管道被炸，德国根本无力阻止，后续调查全程沉默，简直就是默许。连这都忍了，何况是对华事务。

DigitizedEyes
That is what a vassal state can do.

附庸国也就这点能耐了。

TakiEdine
I've never heard a Chinese politician threatening to annex Greenland or plowing up the Nord stream

我从没听过哪个中国*威胁要吞并格陵兰，更没听过谁要炸北溪管道。

terry1708
We can't say any bad things the western countries did, but we can say China wants to do some bad things we could do if we were China.

西方国家干的烂事我们不能提，反倒能脑补中国要干坏事——那些坏事，换我们是中国，我们才真有可能干。

Randy-ss8hp
Why They never mentioned their technology control against China in the past?

他们怎么从来不提，过去这些年一直对中国搞技术封锁的事？

elfrankielitobhai
These Experts always says how bad the chinese economy is by the way how good is the german economy doing?

这帮专家天天唱衰中国经济，话说回来，德国自己的经济又好到哪儿去了？

borahatay
Handle World’s 2nd biggest economy or nuclear super power with 1.4 billion population? Its like kind of suicide.

对付世界第二大经济体、有14亿人口的核大国？简直是自寻死路。

elfrankielitobhai
When the west does export control on china these experts does not have any issues with it but when its otherway around then its a problem. Why ASML sill cannot sell to China?

西方对中国搞出口管制，这帮专家屁话没有；反过来就不行，立马跳脚说事。为啥阿斯麦至今还不能对华出售设备？

aifenggao-rx6ni
Germany has sold more than 200 million automobiles in China over time. This figure alone, however, is only a small fragment of the broader picture of Sino–German cooperation.

Across industries—papermaking, printing, dyes, internal combustion engines, generators, electric motors, mining and smelting equipment, textile machinery, chemical engineering, and pharmaceuticals—German manufacturing has become deeply interwoven with Chinese manufacturing. In many of these sectors, German engineering provided the hardware logic and foundational platforms, while China supplied scale, integration, and continuous industrial iteration. Together, they formed complete industrial ecosystems.

It is no exaggeration to say that China’s vast and sustained demand contributed more than 35% to Germany’s economic prosperity and high living standards over the past four decades. This was not charity, nor exploitation—it was a mutually beneficial industrial partnership built on comparative advantages. Both sides gained enormously.

德国累计对华售出超2亿辆汽车，可这一数字，不过是中德合作宏大图景里的冰山一角。

从造纸、印刷、染料，到内燃机、发电机、电动机，再到矿冶设备、纺织机械、化工、制药，德国制造早已和中国制造深度交融。这些领域里，不少都是德国技术搭好硬件核心与基础平台，中国提供规模产能、集成配套和持续产业迭代，双方共同撑起完整的产业生态。

毫不夸张地说，过去四十年，中国庞大且持续的需求，为德国经济繁荣和高生活水平贡献了超35%的力量。这不是施舍，也不是剥削，而是基于比较优势的互利产业伙伴关系，双方都获益匪浅。

Yet today, parts of this history are being demonized or deliberately distorted by some media voices. That is not only inaccurate; it is deeply regrettable.

In China, there exsts a well-known “German town”—with German-style architecture, lifestyle, and thousands of German enterprises operating successfully. The openness is visible and tangible.

Germany, by contrast, remains a relatively closed market. Chinese investment has found it difficult to integrate, to be trusted, or even to be welcomed. Faced with this reality, Chinese capital naturally turns toward more open and rules-based markets, such as the United States.

可如今，这段历史被部分媒体抹黑、刻意歪曲。这不仅与事实不符，更令人深感惋惜。

中国有知名的“德国小镇”，德式建筑、德式生活方式一应俱全，数千家德国企业在这里经营得风生水起，这份开放看得见、摸得着。

反观德国，市场依旧相对封闭。中国投资难融入、难获信任，甚至难被接纳。面对这样的现实，中国资本自然流向更开放、更讲规则的市场，比如美国。

e4sro
This is a kind of expert who still thinks of the glory of last century: "we ally together to corner Choina, as we are the master"

这类专家还活在上世纪的荣光里，满脑子都是“我们联手围堵中国，我们就是老大”。

DumpTheDollar
If any country is really serious about human ri hts, it should first distance itself from USA, the world's biggest human ri hts abuser and most war mongering country

哪个国家要是真在乎人*，先跟美国划清界限再说。美国可是全球头号人*侵犯者，也是最喜欢挑事打仗的国家。

peteip2604
Simple solution, break free from the USA, defend Canada and Greenland. Germany is destroying it's industry by buying expensive LNG from the USA at 5 times the price. Europe cannot replace China, the same way you cannot replace the USA.

办法很简单：摆脱美国控制，守住加拿大和格陵兰。德国花5倍高价买美国高价液化天然气，简直是在毁掉自己的产业。欧洲替代不了中国，就像你们也替代不了美国一样。

PJG-n8e
You are insane if you think it was good for Germany that the US cut off their cheap energy . Admit you were screwed

觉得美国切断德国廉价能源是好事？你简直疯了。承认吧，你们就是被坑惨了。

redcardinal1219
Germany is over, get used to it. You wasted your opportunity, and now lost any credibility with China.

德国大势已去，认了吧。你们错失良机，如今在中国人眼里，早已毫无信誉可言。

cristinaxmera9663
There is again quite some economic illiteracy at display here.

这评论区又暴露一堆经济盲。

dongmingliu55347
Someone how a vessel state of US always thinks it is a strategic competitor of China. Compete on what?

一个美国的附庸国，居然总把自己当成中国的战略竞争对手。拿什么跟中国比？

merrick6484
Europeans has become Indianised, talk whole day, but no action

欧洲人现在越来越像印度人，光说不练，唠唠叨叨一整天，什么实事都不干。

satriojumeneng7055
Unbelievable that the US has taught China a lot about applying export controls.

说来离谱，美国反倒给中国好好上了一课，让中国把出口管制玩得炉火纯青。

hookmuiyb
War and economic development won't go together. Germany should find a way to remove Ukraine issue to remove uncertainty. No one will spend money duting uncertainty looms.

战争和经济发展根本没法共存。德国得想办法解决乌克兰问题，消除不确定性。前景不明朗的时候，没人愿意掏钱投资。

mingouczjcz3800
Though being nice and accommodating to Germany, China sees Germany’s diplomatic status very differently from that of the US. In essence, Germany is an economically declining vassal state.

中国对德国一直客客气气、包容迁就，但心里清楚，德国的外交地位和美国完全不是一回事。说到底，德国就是个经济日渐衰落的附庸国。

SpruceWood-NEG
Why is Germany targeting China? Is it because of the 50,000 US troops stationed on German territory?

德国为什么盯着中国不放？是不是因为本土驻扎着5万美军？

rajeshVengadesan
Usa is white nation while china is not

美国是白人国家，中国不是。

raymondcyq
both China and Russia helped Germany a lot, so Germany can survive for the last 30 years

过去30年，德国能撑下来，多亏了中俄两国帮衬太多。

JuneBannister-k4s
Cooperation with China is the only path forward. Isolation from Chinese markets would just damage the German businesses that sell into the giant Chinese internal market. China is not a threat. It’s an opportunity for a better future.

和中国合作才是唯一出路。脱离中国市场，只会重创那些深耕中国大内需市场的德国企业。中国不是威胁，而是通往更美好未来的机遇。

jackbleiham8475
The only way to compete with China is to make things better than China and keep it affordable

想和中国竞争，唯一办法就是把东西做得比中国好，还得保持实惠价格。

leonardomuniz8253
Dependence on the US during its period of hegemony = historical friendship / Dependence on China in a multipolar period = addiction?

美国霸权时代，依赖美国叫历史友谊；多极世界里，依赖中国就成了成瘾？这双标玩得溜。

Pestbringer89
They are already dead but they still dont know or pretend to dont know.

他们早就不行了，只是自己不知道，或者假装不知道。

michaeljiang960
worlds 3rd largest export country says export is bad

全球第三大出口国，居然说出口不好？简直笑话。

derekfoust4635
First, the term “drug/addiction” is smearing. Second, it shows that Germany is attuned to the best in each of the areas in question. German auto-makers have acted correctly, investing heavily in China. On the contrary, it seems wrong only according to the US/UK/EU’s tainted lens. German auto-makers should stay the course and not move elsewhere because of US/UK geopolitical games.

第一，用“成瘾”这种词，纯属抹黑。第二，这恰恰说明德国眼光准，能找准各个领域的最优赛道。德国车企重仓中国，做得完全没错。反过来，这事在美英欧盟眼里成了错，只因他们戴着有色眼镜。德国车企该坚持到底，别因为美英的地缘政治操弄，就转移阵地。

amitkoshti
Too much dependencies and wrong policy decisions put German economy in trouble. Dependencies like :
1. Cheap energy on Russia.
2. Defence on America.
3. Manufacturing or Auto on China.
On top of it, wrong policies on immigration (ignoring skilled people and allowing majority non skilled people who can not be trained, not willing to learn and integrate ) , social security (many people simply do not want to work at all and just producing babies for additional money) and pension (not allowing people to save money with tax benefits) caused another blow to economy.

过度依赖加错误政策，把德国经济拖进了泥潭。三大依赖：

1. 依赖俄罗斯廉价能源
2. 依赖美国国防保护
3. 依赖中国制造业市场和汽车市场

雪上加霜的是，还有三大错误政策：移民政策（忽视技术人才，却让大批没技能、教不会、不愿学也不愿融入的人涌入）、社保政策（好多人干脆不上班，靠生孩子拿补贴过日子）、养老金政策（不让民众享受税收优惠存钱养老），再给经济重重一击。

N34R4T0M4T
Germany and Europe should invest seriously in manufacturing automation and AI going forward if they wish to be independent and even a leader and not a follower

德国和欧洲要想实现自主，甚至成为引领者而非追随者，未来就得全力投资制造业自动化和人工智能。

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