为什么印度永远成不了发达国家

Why will India never be a developed country?

为什么印度永远成不了发达国家？

以下是Quora读者的评论：

Defence Warriors

To understand why India will never be a developed country, we must understand some basic rocket technology concepts.Multistage rockets are spacecraft/satellite launch vehicles that consist of two or more rocket stages, each containing its engines and propellants.The stages are detached post-launch one after the other until the payload reaches its intended orbit or destination.Multistage rockets are much more efficient and cost-effective than single-stage rockets,which have to carry on the dead weight of the rocket, which has outlived its utility.The biggest problem of India is that it does not wish to get rid of the dead weights of different kinds, likeCasteism: Indian society is deeply divided on a caste basis, which is a strict hierarchy which can’t be changed. This leads to false caste pride in the upper caste and caste-based reservations to so-called lower castes. No one wants to give away their privilege.Religious Fanaticism: Though our freedom fighters envisage a secular country, more than 90% of Indians are religious and love their religion and hate others. Secularism has become sickular for the fanatics, and they want to make India a Hindu nation. Ram Mandir and Hinduism are still the most popular political weapon used by the ruling BJP.

要理解印度为何永远成不了发达国家，我们必须先了解一些基础的火箭技术概念。多级火箭是由两级或多级火箭组成的航天器/卫星运载工具，每一级都装有发动机和推进剂。发射后，各级火箭会依次分离，直至有效载荷进入预定轨道或抵达目的地。多级火箭比单级火箭效率高得多，成本也更低，因为单级火箭必须一直携带那些已失去效用的火箭“死重”。

印度最大的问题在于，它不愿摆脱各类“死重”，比如种姓制度：印度社会因种姓形成深刻分裂，这是一种无法改变的森严等级制度。这导致高种姓群体滋生虚妄的种姓优越感，所谓的低种姓则依赖种姓配额制度，没人愿意放弃自己的特权。

宗教狂热：尽管我们的自由斗士曾构想一个世俗国家，但超过90%的印度人都有宗教信仰，他们热爱自己的宗教，却排斥其他宗教。在狂热者眼中，“世俗主义”已变成贬义词，他们想把印度打造成一个印度教国家。罗摩庙和印度教仍是执政的人民党最常用的政治武器。

False Pride: Most Indians still believe that thousands of years back, India had nuclear and aeroplance technology and that our Vedas have all the scientific knowledge that ever exsted or ever can be discovered.

Superstitions and rituals: Indias are highly superstitious, and they lack rational thinking and scientific temper..And, they are very proud of their ignorance. They still believe that marrying frogs will bring rain and doing puja before the satellite launch will please God and give them success.

Corruption: Corruption is deeply rooted in India, and it is almost impossible to get rid of it. Corrupt bureaucrats and politicians are highly respected by the masses, who consider them their role models.The more India changes, the more it remains the same.Catseism has transformed into a reservation, which will never allow casteism to die.

虚妄的骄傲：大多数印度人仍坚信，数千年前印度就拥有核技术和飞机技术，还认为吠陀经囊括了古往今来所有的科学知识，甚至包括未来可能发现的一切。

迷信与仪式：印度人极度迷信，缺乏理性思维和科学精神，却对自己的无知引以为傲。他们仍相信让青蛙“结婚”能带来雨水，认为卫星发射前做礼拜能取悦神明、助其成功。

腐败：腐败在印度根深蒂固，几乎无从根除。贪腐的官僚和政客深受民众推崇，被当作榜样。印度看似在变，实则依旧如故。种姓制度已演变为配额制度，这使得种姓制度永远无法消亡。

Billions of Hindus still believe in the stories of Purans and Indian mythologies, and consider them as history, and consider everyone who try to awaken them from their blind faith as their greatest enemy.Most Indians may acquire high education, and even get a PhD in science and technology, and yet they can rarely develop a scientific temper and think rationally.Indians will never discard outdated and false knowledge and pride, and hence, India shall never become a developed nation.The only way for an Indian to realise their dream of living in a developed nation is to leave India after getting formal education and settle in a developed nation.If you don't discard India and Indianness, you can never reach to the orbit of a developed mind or live in a developed nation.

数十亿印度教徒仍将《往世书》和印度神话中的故事视作历史，把所有试图唤醒他们摆脱盲信的人当作最大的敌人。大多数印度人或许能接受高等教育，甚至获得科技领域的博士学位，却几乎难以培养出科学精神和理性思维。

印度人永远不会摒弃过时的错误知识和虚妄的骄傲，因此，印度也永远成不了发达国家。对印度人而言，要实现生活在发达国家的梦想，唯一的途径便是接受正规教育后离开印度，在发达国家定居。若不摒弃印度及所谓的“印度特质”，便永远无法拥有发达的思维，也无法生活在发达国家。

Indian Banyan

This question is a watering hole for all those who simply relish negativity. Not one of the other responses have anything close to a proper answer rather than reaffirming their own pre-exsting cultural/ideological/religious prejudices, including the tired classic “Hindu bad!”. Apparently, poor table manners is a key reason why India will never be a developed country. And kee good traffic lane manners will make India a developed country. And then such types accuse Indians of being superstitious!

Becoming a developed country is a tall order for any country. But it is not a hill that others haven’t climbed, even in Asia. South Korea, for instance, was much poorer than India in 1950, and it had its rear burned in the Korean War 1949–1953. From this not very handsome start, South Korea has gone on to become, over a period of forty to fifty years, a developed country. Yes, it had a very special set of circumstances which may not be exactly replicable in the current era. But still, a lot of countries got independent at that time, and are today eating grass.

这个问题成了所有热衷传播负面情绪者的“聚集地”。没有一个能算得上是恰当的回答，不过是在重申他们早已存在的文化、意识形态或宗教偏见，包括那句老掉牙的“印度教不好！”。显然，糟糕的餐桌礼仪成了印度永远成不了发达国家的关键原因，而遵守交通规则就能让印度变成发达国家。可就是这类人，还在指责印度人迷信！

对任何国家来说，成为发达国家都是一项艰巨的任务。但这并非不可攀登的高峰，即便是在亚洲，也有国家做到了。比如韩国，1950年时比印度贫穷得多，还在1949 - 1953年的朝鲜战争中遭受重创。从这样并不光鲜的起点出发，韩国用了四五十年时间，一步步成为了发达国家。诚然，它当时的特殊环境在当下未必能完全复制，但要知道，那个年代独立的国家有很多，如今不少仍在苦苦挣扎。

The World Bank defines a high income economy as having a per capita Gross National Income (some form of a modified GDP) of USD 14,100. High-income is one of the aspects of a developed economy, it is not the only one. But leave that for later.

So, India has to achieve a per capita GNI of at least USD 14,100 in 2025 dollars for it to become a high-income economy; more precisely, whatever USD 14,100 will be by the time India gets to a high-income economy status. This is a difficult undertaking, but it can be achieved, possibly by 2040 if everything goes well.

世界银行将高收入经济体定义为人均国民总收入（一种经调整的GDP形式）达到14100美元。高收入是发达经济体的特征之一，但并非唯一标准。不过这一点我们稍后再谈。

因此，印度要成为高收入经济体，按2025年的美元汇率计算，人均国民总收入至少要达到14100美元；更准确地说，是等印度达到高收入经济体水平时，14100美元所对应的实际数值。这绝非易事，但并非无法实现——如果一切顺利，或许到2040年就能达成。

Having said that, here are some factors which will delay, not obstruct, modern India’s march to a developed country status by mid-century:

Poor capital depth/High capital cost: India is extremely capital-scarce. There is hardly sufficient investment capital; and what capital there is, is concentrated in the hands of a few people and groups who have the necessary networks and influence. Matters are made worse by misfired schemes which claim to be for the people’s good but end up restricting capital access to most of the population. Specifically, the centralisation of banking and finance, the stated aims of which were to pool and streamline finance for the billion Indians using committees of learned experts but the effect of which has been to render vast portions of the country a capital desert and reliant on state aid for its survival. As a result, loan capital for business is extremely expensive in India, and is therefore the preserve only of the already-wealthy instead of those who need it most and who probably will be able to make better use of the money.

话虽如此，以下这些因素会延缓而非阻碍现代印度在本世纪中叶跻身发达国家的进程：

资本深度不足/资本成本高昂：印度极度缺乏资本。投资资金本就匮乏，而仅有的资本又集中在少数人及少数群体手中——他们手握必要的人脉与影响力。更糟的是，一些号称“为民谋利”的政策推行不当，最终反而限制了大多数人获取资本的渠道。具体而言，银行业与金融业的集中化政策本旨在通过专家委员会整合并优化面向十亿印度人的金融资源，实际却让国内大片地区沦为“资本沙漠”，只能依赖国家援助生存。其结果是，印度企业的贷款成本极高，这笔资金因此成了富人的专属，而非流向最需要它、或许也能更好利用它的群体。

Counterintuitive economic policies: would you ever call the police on someone bringing physical gold INTO your home? Well, that is what happens in India. It is a crime to bring to India gold that is not announced at entry points; and on the value of which a tariff of 50% of list price is charged! It is NOT a crime to take gold OUT of the country, however. And this is official government policy since the 1960s! Why? In the vain defence of the Indian rupee, control of which is in the hands of the Indian government, and which therefore does not have the faith of the people in terms of value retention capacity, thanks to the government’s mad socialist policies which has the effect - in India as in elsewhere - of destroying the value of the currency.

Anti-competitive business practices: Business activity in the country is often run by cliques which use political influence to corner the market. This is why the biggest businesses in India are conglomerates over 150 years of age, while, by comparison, the biggest businesses in the US, or 8 of 10 of them at least, are not from prior to 1980. While this helps them earn rental income (not business income) from a population rendered helpless, unfree and captive, it prevents the clique-owners from the urge to be competitive and to innovate and reduce prices through product improvements and efficiency gains. The chief anti-competitive practice in India continues to be the sky-high tariffs which prevents the Indian consumer from accessing cheaper foreign imports, kee them materially poor. That these are defended as essential “for India” takes the confoundment even further!

违背常理的经济政策：你会因为有人把实物黄金带进家门而报警吗？在印度，这种事真的会发生。若携带黄金进入印度却未在入境处申报，便构成犯罪，还要按标价缴纳50%的关税！然而，将黄金带出国境却不构成犯罪。这竟是自20世纪60年代起就存在的官方政策！为何如此？为了徒劳地维护印度卢比的稳定——卢比的控制权掌握在印度政府手中，却因政府推行的狂热社会主义政策（无论在印度还是其他地方，这类政策都会导致货币贬值），失去了民众对其保值能力的信任。

反竞争的商业行为：印度的商业活动往往由小集团操控，这些集团利用政治影响力垄断市场。这也是为何印度最大的企业多是拥有150年以上历史的 conglomerates，而相比之下，美国最大的企业中至少有八成成立于1980年之后。这种局面虽能让集团所有者从无助、不自由且被动的民众身上赚取“租金收益”（而非商业收益），却磨灭了他们参与竞争、创新升级产品及通过提升效率降低价格的动力。印度最主要的反竞争行为仍是高关税政策，它阻碍印度消费者获得更廉价的进口商品，让民众深陷物质贫困。而这些政策竟还被辩解为“为了印度”的必要举措，着实令人费解！

Poor infrastructure: Though this is being addressed at present; India has a long way to go in terms of integrated infrastructure development which combined roads, rail, metro and ports to form a seamless public transportation continuum for users. As a result, transportation costs are dramatically high in comparison to places with integrated transport systems.

Agricultural subsidies: while state intervention in agriculture over the decades has successfully reduced malnutrition and extreme deprivation in the country, it has the effect now of perpetuating inefficiency and low productivity, kee incomes low; preventing better usage of land; and kee India poorer. This is the real middle-income trap for India. What the sector cannot earn in terms of income from product is made up by income from subsidies. About half of India’s entire workforce is at present engaged in agriculture, in a sector where it simply doesn’t require as many people to be involved for similar output levels any more. A country like the US which is one of the world’s biggest food producers has less than 2% of its population engaged in agriculture.

基础设施薄弱：尽管目前这一问题已得到关注，但印度在综合性基础设施建设上仍有很长的路要走——需要将公路、铁路、地铁与港口整合起来，为用户打造无缝衔接的公共交通网络。因此，与拥有一体化交通系统的地区相比，印度的运输成本高得惊人。

农业补贴的困境：数十年来，国家对农业的干预成功缓解了国内的营养不良与极端贫困问题，但如今却造成了效率低下、生产力低迷的积弊，导致收入停滞、土地无法得到更好利用，最终拖累印度发展。这正是印度面临的“中等收入陷阱”核心：农业部门无法从产品中获得的收入，只能靠补贴填补。目前印度近半数劳动力仍集中在农业领域，而实际上，要达到现有产出水平，早已不需要这么多人投入其中。像美国这样的世界顶级粮食生产国，农业人口占比还不到2%。

Low innovation levels: There are a myriad reasons why India is not as innovative as its human capital measures would indicate; but there genuinely is absent a culture of sustained tinkering, as well as early stage funding for completely new ideas and ventures. It may have to do with the long cultural muscle memory of starvation, capital shortage, uncertain privileges etc which prevents people from being confident enough to genuinely undertake fundamental research. Most of what pretends to be “innovative” in India tends more towards the application in the cloistered and tariff-protected Indian market of ideas already tried out elsewhere. This is also a secondary effect of the clique-dominated business environment mentioned above.

Poor public heath and cleanliness: A mark of a developed nation is, without a doubt, its public cleanliness and the civic values of the population in this regard. It - or its absence - is informed by education and training, notions of individual responsibility and good citizenship, funding of local authorities and taxes and penalties for poor civic behaviour.

It is despite all of the above and much more that the Indians, most of them Hindu, have been able to conjure up from a very low base point in its modern infancy, a country which is today the world’s third-largest economy in PPP GDP terms; and which is also one of the top 10 industrial powers. Per capita incomes have a long way to go up, but the Indian people, most of them Hindu, have shown than when the above factors are alleviated, as in, where they are given adequate access to capital, adequate incentive to innovate and compete, adequate safety of property rights, adequate freedom in financial decisions and asset/capital allocations etc, they can deliver better outcomes than most of the rest of the world.

创新水平低下：印度的创新能力与其人力资本水平不匹配，背后原因繁多，但核心在于缺乏持续钻研的文化氛围，以及对全新理念和创业项目的早期资金支持。这或许与长期以来的饥荒记忆、资本短缺、特权不稳定等文化烙印有关，让人们难以拥有开展基础研究的充足信心。印度所谓的“创新”，大多是在受关税保护的封闭市场中，应用那些在其他国家已被验证过的理念。这也是前文提到的集团垄断商业环境带来的间接影响。

公共卫生与清洁问题堪忧：毫无疑问，公共环境的整洁程度与民众的公民卫生意识，是发达国家的重要标志。这种意识的有无，与教育培养、个人责任感和良好公民观念的树立息息相关，也离不开地方政府的资金投入，以及对不良公民行为的税收调节与处罚机制。

尽管存在上述种种问题，甚至更多挑战，但以印度教徒为主体的印度人民，仍从现代发展初期的极低起点起步，将国家建设成了按购买力平价计算的全球第三大经济体，也是世界前十的工业强国。人均收入虽仍有很大提升空间，但印度人民——其中多数为印度教徒——已经证明：当上述制约因素得到缓解，当他们能获得充足的资本、创新与竞争的足够激励、产权的充分保障，以及财务决策和资产配置的充分自由时，他们能创造出超越世界多数国家的成果。

Mukul Abdagiri

Because it's a shithole. Shithole will always remain a shithole no matter how much you glorify it.

Its overcrowded, chaotic, polluted, loud, dirty. Religious crap sits on top of everything. People lack civic sense.

Competition, corruption, pollution is what defines india. Country might get rich but just because of the head count. Standard of living in india is pathetic.

It will never even get close to the actual developed countries like US, Japan, Singapore, Germany, etc

因为这是个烂地方。无论你如何美化，烂地方永远都是烂地方。

这里人满为患、混乱不堪、污染严重、嘈杂喧闹、肮脏邋遢。宗教糟粕凌驾于一切之上。人们缺乏公民意识。

竞争、腐败、污染，这就是印度的代名词。这个国家或许会变富，但不过是因为人口基数大而已。印度的生活水平糟糕透顶。

它永远也达不到美国、日本、新加坡、德国等真正发达国家的水平。

Siva Subramanian

Noy only India, many asian countries cannot reach that evel. The west is purposely kee dollar rate or their currency rate many times than east countrirs. For example, a software clerk in India or eastern countries get Rs 30000 but in West he gets 5000dollars per month. This is equal to Rs.400000. Automatically for same job they get 12 times pay.. China which started and followed this slavery by manufactuing, toiling theworekers at low cost with low salary and higher productivity by extracrting peeople still has 8000 as yrarly salary level. Per cspita.

Now the need is change the exchange rates. We see people in West telling people are luving with 5 dollars per day. This is Rs 400 and it is easy to live with self cooking decently in many areas in East, with similar western food. With 500 dollars per month many families live with equal standard as Smrricans with 4000 dollars per month.With nearly 1/12 th of their earning wr can live equally in many places in East. Even if you add for other club jolly activities it is maxmum another Rs200 dollars,.

So just by manufacturing more or less cost it will nevet improve your std. A cellphone of Rs 85000 is 1000dollars which is less than the average clerical income of 5000 dollars in USA.

不仅是印度，许多亚洲国家都达不到那种水平。西方故意让美元或他们的货币汇率比东方国家高出许多倍。比如，印度或其他东方国家的软件文员月薪是 3 万卢比，而在西方，同等岗位月薪能达到 5000 美元，相当于 40 万卢比。做同样的工作，他们的收入自动就高出 12 倍。中国通过制造业开启发展之路，靠着低成本、低薪资压榨工人，以高强度劳动换取高生产力，如今人均年收入仍只有 8000 美元左右。

现在，改变汇率成了迫切需求。我们看到西方人说 “每天 5 美元就能生活”，这相当于 400 卢比，在东方许多地区，靠自己做饭完全能过上体面生活，饮食水平和西方也相差无几。每月 500 美元的收入，在许多东方家庭看来，生活水平能和每月 4000 美元的美国人相当。用他们近 1/12 的收入，我们在东方不少地方就能过上同等质量的生活。即便加上一些俱乐部娱乐之类的活动，最多再花 200 美元也就够了。

所以，仅凭制造业成本高低，永远无法提高生活水平。一部 8.5 万卢比的手机折合 1000 美元，这还不到美国文员平均月薪 5000 美元的零头。

IT IS NOT EAST ARE LIVING AT LOWER STANDARDS.. So only way to get acceptable level is make 1 doolar is atound 10 to 12 rs. And all east conutries similarly. will put all world proper.

I bat for this. country like India who has nehative balnce of trade, more imports thsn exportd can go for it. We can pay less gor oil. And gold machinery. Omlt sime softwaere exports and garment ecporters may be affectef. Govt can subddize 25% for them. But overall economy will grow.

Poor roads kickbacks are there. IN USalso bad roafs and kickbacks are there. But controlling them alone will not help. By using more software monitoring it can be made bettdr. But overall std only reducing exchsnge rate only will help. May be China cannot do that. But all eastern vountries can do that

THID IS THR ONLY WAY.

并非东方国家的生活水平低。因此，要达到满意的生活水平，唯一的办法是让 1 美元兑换 10 到 12 卢比左右，所有东方国家都这样调整，世界就能回归正轨。

我支持这个做法。像印度这样贸易逆差严重、进口大于出口的国家，完全可以这么做。这样一来，我们印度购买石油、黄金和机械的成本会降低。或许一些软件出口和服装出口商会受到影响，但政府可以给他们 25% 的补贴，整体经济反而会增长。

道路破败、回扣横行的问题确实存在，在美国也有烂路，也有回扣现象。但光靠整治这些问题无济于事，通过更多软件监控或许能有所改善，但整体生活水平的提升，唯有降低汇率这一条路。或许中国做不到，但所有东方国家都可以这么做。