Glacier collapse or lake burst likely caused Dharali destruction: Experts

专家称：冰川崩塌或冰湖溃决可能导致达拉利村被毁

DEHRADUN: A glacier collapse or glacial lake breach upstream, rather than the initially suspected cloudburst, likely triggered the flash flood that ravaged Dharali village in Uttarkashi district on Tuesday, experts studying meteorological and satellite data told TOI. As rescue and relief operations continued, scientists began investigating evidence suggesting that a significant avalanche, glacier collapse or lake burst upstream may have unleashed the destructive torrent.

IMD recorded minimal rainfall around the time of the disaster, raising questions about the cloudburst theory. Harsil had only 6.5mm rain on Tuesday, and cumulative rainfall over 24 hours was just 9mm in Harsil and 11mm in Bhatwari - figures significantly below levels typically associated with cloudburst-induced flooding.

Rohit Thapliyal, senior scientist at IMD's regional meteorological centre, said, "Only very light to light rain was observed in the affected area over 24 hours. The highest rainfall recorded anywhere in Uttarkashi was merely 27mm at the district headquarters." Another senior scientist added, "This volume is insufficient to trigger floods of such severity, suggesting a powerful event such as a glacier burst or a GLOF.

德拉敦讯：研究气象和卫星数据的专家向《印度时报》表示，周二肆虐北阿坎德邦乌塔拉喀什县达拉利村的山洪，可能由上游冰川崩塌或冰湖溃决引发，而非最初怀疑的暴雨。随着救援和救灾行动持续进行，科学家开始调查相关证据，显示上游可能发生了大规模雪崩、冰川崩塌或冰湖溃决，进而引发了这场破坏性洪流。

印度气象部门（IMD）记录显示，灾难发生时当地降雨量极小，这让暴雨引发洪水的说法受到质疑。周二哈西尔的降雨量仅为 6.5 毫米，24 小时内哈西尔的累计降雨量仅 9 毫米，巴特瓦里为 11 毫米 —— 这些数据远低于通常与暴雨引发洪水相关的水平。

IMD 区域气象中心的资深科学家罗希特・塔普利亚尔表示：“24 小时内，受影响地区仅观测到微量到小雨。乌塔拉喀什县境内降雨量最高的地方是县总部，也仅为 27 毫米。” 另一位资深科学家补充道：“这样的降雨量不足以引发如此严重的洪水，这说明可能发生了冰川崩塌或冰川湖溃决洪水（GLOF）等强烈事件。”

Satellite images independently accessed by TOI confirmed the presence of significant glaciers and at least two glacial lakes situated directly above the affected site. "There is a glacier right above Kheer Gad stream; a sudden release of water, either from glacial lake outburst or glacier burst, could lead to a high-energy flash flood, similar to the Raini disaster in Chamoli in Feb 2021," said the scientist. The Raini incident involved a rock-ice avalanche that triggered floods devastating the Rishiganga hydel project and severely damaging the Tapovan-Vishnugad power plant, resulting in more than 200 deaths.

According to Wadia Institute of Himalayan Geology, Uttarakhand has 1,266 glacial lakes ranging from small bodies to large reservoirs, several of which pose significant downstream threats. National Disaster Management Authority identified 13 glacial lakes as high-risk, classifying five as extremely dangerous.

《印度时报》独立获取的卫星图像证实，受影响地点正上方存在大型冰川和至少两个冰湖。该科学家称：“科尔加德溪流正上方有一座冰川；无论是冰湖溃决还是冰川崩塌导致的突发性释水，都可能引发高能量山洪，类似 2021 年 2 月查莫利的拉伊尼灾难。” 拉伊尼事件中，一场岩冰雪崩引发洪水，摧毁了里希甘加水电站，并严重损坏了塔波万 - 毗湿奴加德发电厂，造成 200 多人死亡。

据瓦迪亚喜马拉雅地质研究所称，北阿坎德邦有 1266 个冰湖，小至小型水体，大至大型水库，其中多个对下游构成重大威胁。国家灾害管理局认定 13 个冰湖为高风险，其中 5 个被列为极度危险。

以下是印度时报读者的评论：

BHARATiya Guest
Unplanned and illegal construction. When you have a home near river then you have to prepare for flood.

乱建、违建问题太大了。把房子盖在河边，就得随时准备应对洪水

Amandeep
construction and development should be controlled in Himalayan region. Specially Himachal and Uttarakhand where development is happening at a very fast pace.This has effect on the fragile environment.

喜马拉雅地区的建设开发得管管了。尤其是喜马偕尔邦和北阿坎德邦，发展速度太快，脆弱的环境遭到了破坏

Sunil Pasi
Absolutely correct. No residential/commercial construction should be allowed in areas of significant risk from flood in floodplains. But the problem is it’s very problematic to implement planning measures in India. Once any government plans to initiate any good work, opposition and even general public starts to protest heavily.

说得太对了。洪泛区这种洪水高危地带，根本不该允许建住宅和商铺。但问题是在印度，规划政策很难落地。政府但凡想干点实事，反对党甚至老百姓就会闹翻天

Jayaraman Sundaramoorthy
It is easy to blame scientists after every disaster. But, are we so disciplined as to listen to their early warnings? At least have we learnt to buy tickets before boarding trains? It is mobocracy mentality that is encouraged by the political class for its own self - advancement that is destroying every sane voice and fabric of our society. First of all let us give education to every child, teach them to be humane and never hate your fellowman and never destroy NATURE. This is what is vital to save ourselves from the fury of Nature when it chooses to turn against Man to take revenge of his destructive measures against it as well as himself.

灾难过后指责科学家很容易。但我们真的听话吗？会听他们的早期预警吗？至少我们学会了先买票再上火车吗？政客为了自己上位，纵容这种乌合之众的心态，毁掉了所有理性的声音和社会秩序。首先得让每个孩子都上学，教他们有同情心，不仇恨他人，不破坏自然。这才是关键，能让我们在大自然发怒报复人类的时候保住自己——毕竟是人类先破坏自然、自毁前程的

Indian
Why public are allowed to stay in that environmentally sensitive area risking their lives.

为什么允许老百姓住在环境敏感区，拿生命冒险

Sb
Whole Himalaya is environmentally sensitive, since these are called young mountain, and still rising due to the tectonic activity. People were living there for ages. The trouble is number of people rising, unsustainable constructions taking place which Mother Earth is protesting to warn humans about its place.

整个喜马拉雅都是环境敏感区，因为这里是“年轻山脉”，板块运动还在让它不断升高。人们在这儿住了好几代了。问题是人口越来越多，搞了太多不可持续的建设，地球母亲这是在抗议，警告人类别越界

Bharat
There were always calamities in this region but as population has increased people moved on with construction of dwellings, Uttarakhand Govt. should have stopped them. No wise-man from village will build house next to river bank, its in built in safe area.

这地方一直有灾害，但人口一多，人们就开始乱盖房子，北阿坎德邦政府早该制止的。村里明白人都不会把房子建在河边，都会选安全的地方

Guest
This is all because of construction work in this region. This state i not meant for that

这全是因为这地方搞建设搞的。这个邦根本不该这么开发

Ashok
One more facet of global warming and climate change. Very unfortunate. Sympathies and condolences.

这也是全球变暖和气候变化的一个表现。太不幸了。表示同情和哀悼

Roman
Why Uttarakhand Gov. Not taking action against the sarkari people's who allow to construct houses and hotels on these dangerous locations?

北阿坎德邦政府为什么不处理那些允许在危险地带盖房子、开酒店的官员？

User Shibusoren
Global warming is an easy way to blame everyone except the babus who allow rampant construction in areas that are high risk. If these lakes pose such extreme risk, why was construction in downstream areas allowed? Global warming may have been a contributor, but allowing buildings on unstable slopes and cutting down of trees and clearing vegetation is a much more potent cause of death and destruction. This will recur every year and the same blame game will continue, with no improvement.

拿全球变暖当借口，倒是轻松——所有人都能怪，就是不怪那些允许在高危区乱建的官员。既然这些冰湖风险这么大，为什么允许下游搞建设？全球变暖可能有点关系，但让人们在不稳定的山坡上盖房、砍树毁植被，才是造成死亡和破坏的更主要原因。这种事每年都会重演，互相甩锅，根本不会有改善

Saurabh Singh
We have these many drones for what purposes?? Plus are those satellites doesn’t show you that how many illegal structures are there in the middle of the pathways of the rivers?? Are we not capable enough to investigate the region thoroughly and get it cleared before mishap? Ye sare scietists and IMD wale pehle kahan aisi taisi kara rahe hote hai? And as if someone is not listening to you then why dont you raise alarm there n then?

我们搞这么多无人机是干嘛用的？卫星难道看不到河道里有多少违建吗？我们就不能在出事前彻底排查、清理干净吗？这些科学家和气象局的人，之前都在干嘛？要是有人不听你们的，当时怎么不拉响警报？

Guest
Drones are for taking Photo of Modi ji. Deshdrohi

无人机是用来拍莫迪照片的。卖国贼

Guest
IMD department is worst department of india.

印度气象局是最烂的部门

Amarendra Das
it is as worst as you are.

它再烂也没你烂

Bharat
Looks like these places are inhabitable - State Government should enforce reloction of people seems the exsting inhabitants are IGNORANT !

看来这些地方根本住不了人——邦政府该强制搬迁了，现在住这儿的人太没数了

Jagdish Chandra
The think tanks of science are analyzing satellite and meteorological data. Scientists started looking into evidence that suggested the destructive torrent may have been released by a large avalanche, glacier collapse, or Lake Break upstream as rescue and relief efforts went on. Without question, the Earth has become more habitable than ever, thanks to scientific and technological advancements following industrialization, but it is extremely susceptible to devastating disasters geographically. Here, a straightforward question is raised: is there a mechanism by which civil society might prevent natural disasters? The answer is no. In such precarious circumstances, civilization must reevaluate its strategy of modernization before it becomes a serious threat to civilization. Uttarakhand situation is hardly an outlier.

科学界正在分析卫星和气象数据。救援救灾的同时，科学家开始调查证据，显示上游大型雪崩、冰川崩塌或冰湖溃决可能引发了这场毁灭性洪流。毫无疑问，工业化带来的科技进步让地球比以往更适合居住，但从地理上看，它也更容易遭受毁灭性灾害。这里有个简单的问题：民间社会有办法预防自然灾害吗？答案是否定的。在这种危险情况下，人类文明必须重新审视现代化策略，否则它会严重威胁文明本身。北阿坎德邦的情况绝非个例

Statistician
Population control measures by mother earth, au natural

地球母亲的人口控制手段，纯天然

User Shibusoren
1312 people have been killed in Uttarakhand between 2010 to 2020 because of man-made (so called natural) disasters. After that, the toll has been a minimum of 300 every single year. Joshimath was built on the remains of a landslide and a Govt study way back in 1976 had warned that allowing construction on the site was extremely dangerous. Indira Gandhi had banned construction then, but the report and the ban have been conveniently overlooked

2010到2020年间，北阿坎德邦有1312人死于人为导致的“自然灾害”。之后每年至少有300人因此丧生。乔希马思建在滑坡遗迹上，早在1976年政府研究就警告过，在这儿搞建设极其危险。英迪拉·甘地当时就禁止了建设，但这份报告和禁令被故意无视了

Bharat Doshi
Investigating agencies should check soil testing at the burst origin to confirm theories, including the chances of sabotage played by anti India elements.

调查机构应该检测溃决源头的土壤，验证各种说法，包括反印势力破坏的可能性

Yashoda
Thanks to Illiterate Feku who country is collapsing..

都怪那个文盲骗子，国家都要垮了

Swapnil Kaushik
because yu are in this country its collapsing

就因为你在这个国家，它才会垮

Singhmukul
Jihadis are celebrating. Such a shame.

圣战分子在庆祝。太丢人了

Ontheface
Artificial Lakes do not form overnight. Similar lake bursts have happened twice in recent times before this. All expenditures on satellites is a waste in India. Those who are supposed to use the data are slee. We all blame Government for everything but what is Government... Actually the Babus (High ranking officials of Government Departments and Ministries) who keep on playing power games and make life of everything and everyone miserable. The Heads / Secretary of the responsible Department for raising alerts based on satellite data should be immediately terminated.

人工湖不是一夜之间形成的。最近已经发生过两次类似的溃决了。印度花在卫星上的钱全浪费了。那些该用卫星数据的人都在睡大觉。我们什么都怪政府，但政府是什么？其实是那些官员（政府部门的高官）一直在玩权力游戏，把所有人的日子都搞糟了。负责根据卫星数据发布警报的部门主管应该立即被解雇

Atul Sharma
Bahut khob, sahi hai, this is height of meanness, instead of mentioning the correct cause ( destroying nature for commercial purposes) put the blame on mother nature. May mother nature punish those all accountables doing dirty politics and giving wrong misleading options.

真棒，太对了，这真是卑劣到极点了——不说是为了赚钱破坏自然这个真正原因，反倒怪地球母亲。愿大自然惩罚那些搞肮脏政治、给出错误误导的责任人

Bangladesh
Modi, spend this money on the welfare of the people instead of buying the gold. People are dying due to dilapidated and poor infrastructure. And you are jum around like a newly elected king monkey in the jungle.

莫迪，把钱花在民生上吧，别去买黄金了。人们因为基础设施破败简陋而丧命，你却像丛林里新当选的猴王一样到处蹦跶

Bhaaratha Naadu
If there are over 1200 glacial lakes in Uttarakhand, then most of the areas will be dangerous for human settlement, with some possibly6 be more risky than others, but risky nevertheless. In Himachal too, there are settlements on the sides of the mountain ranges, vulnerable to landslides. It is not practical to ask all these residents to relocate to another place far away. There seems to be no easy solution to centuries old problem.

如果北阿坎德邦有1200多个冰湖，那大部分地区都不适合人类居住，有些地方风险更高，但总之都有危险。喜马偕尔邦也一样，山脉两侧有不少定居点，容易发生滑坡。让所有居民搬到很远的地方不现实。这个几百年的老问题，似乎没有简单的解决办法

继续阅读：冰川   雪崩   洪流   村庄   灾难

此文由 三泰虎 编辑，未经允许不得转载！：首页 > 资讯 » 印度发生大规模雪崩、冰川崩塌或冰湖溃决，引发了洪流，一村庄被毁