India's economy to contract by 3.2% in fiscal year 2020-21: World Bank
WASHINGTON: India's economy will shrink by 3.2 per cent in the current fiscal, the World Bank said on Monday as it joined a chorus of international agencies that are forecasting a contraction in growth rate due to the coronavir s lockdown halting economic activity.
The Washington-based multilateral lender said that the COVID-19 pandemic and the multi-phased lockdown imposed to curb its spread has resulted in a devastating blow to the Indian economy.
In its latest edition of the Global Economic Prospect, the World Bank downgraded its projection of India by a massive negative nine per cent.
However, the Indian economy is expected to bounce back in 2021, the World Bank said.
"In India, growth is estimated to have slowed to 4.2 per cent in the fiscal year 2019/20 (the year ending in March-2020) and output is projected to contract by 3.2 per cent in fiscal year 2020/21, when the impact of COVID-19 will largely materialise.
"Stringent measures to restrict the spread of the vir s, which heavily curtail short-term activity, will contribute to the contraction," it said in the Global Economic Prospect report.
International rating agencies like Moody's Investors Service, Fitch Rating and S&P Global Ratings have all predicted a 4-5 per cent contraction in India's economic growth rate during April 2020 to March 2021 fiscal. Crisil has said this would be the country's fourth recession since Independence, first since liberalisation, and perhaps the worst to date.
The World Bank said spillovers from the weaker global growth and bnce sheet stress in the financial sector will also weigh on activity, despite some support from the fiscal stimulus and continued monetary policy easing.
According to the report, the central bank has been purchasing go nment bonds to further ease the financial conditions. The Indian go nment has also increased its spending on healthcare to bolster the COVID-19 response, wage support, in-kind and cash transfers to lower-income households, deferral of tax payments, as well as loan and liquidity support for small businesses and financial institutions.
The growth rate of the Indian economy in fiscal 2017 was seven per cent, which dropped to 6.1 per cent in fiscal 2018 and to 4.2 per cent in fiscal 2020, it said.
The real impact of the COVID-19 and lockdown would be felt in the current fiscal (2020-21) begng April, the bank said as it forecast a negative growth rate of 3.2 per cent.
The World Bank revised its January projection on India by a massive negative nine per cent for the year 2020 and minus three per cent for the year 2021.
The contraction in the Indian economy will have a spillover impact in South Asia, according to the bank's projections.
Growth in the region is projected to register a contraction of -2.7 per cent in 2020 and is marked by high uncertainty, the report said.
译文来源：三泰虎 http://www.santaihu.com/p/50067.html 译者：Jessica.Wu
Indian economy will rebound only in ion year 2024 that to with fake and inflated data only on paper and not in practical, our RBI governor will say inflation is at rock bottom and surplus funds of 2 lakh crore will be transferred to gt
Oh it is due to COVID19
Anil Kumar Singla
Our economy was already in ICU due to bad policies of the Modi gt. # NOTEBANDI and faulty GST implementation. And now due to insensible decision of sudden complete lockdown 1,2,3 of the entire country , the economy has gone on VENTILATOR. Every day FM is trying to give oxygen for revival but how long ? What will happen when Corona cases reaches its peak in July and August ?
Wrong. Because we have an inefficient FM, our economy will contract by 10%
This means -3.2% gdp. close to 100 billion dollars of India combined wealth eroded.
Modi joker is solely responsible for this.
But stock mkt will be up 30%! Wonder how that works..
All companies virtually had zero business and nil production in first quarter yet stock market has not t ked... Market works on sentiments rather than fundamentals
Modiji has done the impossible!! What a PM we have!!
yes he has done what chai w can do.
Must be worse like Pakistan and Afganistan.
beg to Pak for help
what nonsense it will be more than 10%......
World Bank is Anti Nation. Send them to Pakistan.
do we really need enemies like or Pak or Nepal ?
The situation became for all other countries after covid. But we were ahead of them by three years, we touched the bottom in 2015-16. Others will take tthree years to recover and we will take not less than ten years.
World Bank is not a credible agency....Le Bhakt
most of our fellow countrymen r not bothered about economy at all. They don't correlate it with country's pride and follow propaganda po itics
Don't worry modi ji will save us
MOST ECONOMIES INCLUDING INDIA, USA, CHINA, JAPAN, EU WILL CONTRACT 20-30% NO WORRIES, VERY HEALTHY AND NORMAL.
The situation is same for all countries. Why is India singled out? But India will recover faster than other countries because we a visionary leader who has the courage to take timely decisions.