IMF says India in midst of significant economic slowdown, calls for urgent policy actions
NEW DELHI: India is in the midst of a significant economic slowdown, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has said, asking for urgent steps to reverse slowdown while continuing with credible fiscal consolidation.
The fund released Article IV consultation report on India in Washington on Monday.
"India is now in the midst of a significant economic slowdown…. Addressing the current downturn and returning India to a high growth path requires urgent policy actions,” Ranil Salgado of the IMF Asia and Pacific Department told reporters.
India’s economic growth slumped to a six-year low of 4.5% in July-September quarter and many experts now expect full FY20 growth at below 5%.
印度经济增速在7 - 9月跌至4.5%的6年低点，许多专家预计2020财年的增速将低于5%。
The report presented two scenarios with the second one pushing for significant reforms around three pillars to boost growth-—Firstly, ongoing clean-up of bank balance sheets should be complemented by a decisive strengthening of PSB governance and regulation and oversight of NBFCs, it said. Secondly, a medium-term fiscal consolidation path should be anchored by the Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management Review Committee’s recommendation to reduce general go nment debt toward 60% of GDP and thirdly, unveil labour, land and productivity reforms. The other scenario pointed ANIRBAN BORA that the country could grow by 7.3% in medium term riding on the back of reforms already taken such as Goods and Services Tax. It backed continuation of monetary easing, but cautioned against fiscal stimulus to boost growth.
Growth is projected at 6.1% in 2019-20, IMF said, while adding that risks are to the downside. IMF’s chief economist Gita Gopinath had last week said that India’s growth forecast is likely to revised down “significantly” in the upcoming January review.
Credible medium-term fiscal consolidation path driven by subsidy-spending rationalisation and tax base-enhancing measures are needed to reduce debt, free up financial resources for private investment, and reduce the interest bill, the IMF said. It cautioned that the go nment has limited space to boost spending to support growth, especially given high debt levels and interest payments.
India's rapid economic expansion in recent years has lifted millions of people out of poverty. However, in the first half of 2019, a combination of factors led to subdued economic growth in India.
The IMF in October slashed its forecast for 2019 by nearly a full point to 6.1%, while cutting the outlook for 2020 to 7.0%.
译文来源：三泰虎 http://www.santaihu.com/49053.html 译者：Joyceliu
In the present scenario, we need a competent person for the post of Finance Minister.As per Mr. Swamy's recent interaction with the public, we can give him a chance for him to be our FM. He can solve some of the chronical issues now India faces.
Because they don't see eye to eye on a whole host of issues, the PM won't consider Dr. Subramanian Swamy, a PhD in Economics from Harvard University as Finance minister. Dr. Swamy is also a strident critic of govt. policies.
Though they tried to stall its implementation when they were in the opposition, the BJP was in a tearing hurry to implement GST once they formed the govt. So, they pushed through a half-baked piece of legislation. And, even had a special midnight session of Parliament to mark the roll out of Goods and Services Tax (GST) in the country. A gong sounded at midnight ‘announced’ that GST had arrived. GST was supposed to simplify a web of taxes, regulations and border levies by subsuming an array of central and state levies including excise duty, service tax and VAT – but that hasn't happened in spite of several amendments. Both GST and demonetisation has taken its toll on the smooth functioning of small businesses. The IMF has called for “urgent policy actions” to reverse the “significant economic slowdown” – i.e., growth in the second quarter of FY 2019/20 has come in at a six-year low of 4.5% (y/y). Ranil Salgado, Mission Chief for India in the IMF Asia and Pacific observed, “India already has a relatively high general go nment deficits and general go nment debt."
India already has a relatively high general go nment deficits and general go nment debt. Ranil Salgado, Mission Chief for India in the IMF Asia and Pacific is of opinion that new growth projections for India, which will come out in January, would be significantly lower than the previous ones. He added that the IMF had been surprised on India's slowdown.
No point in arguments. If GOI doesnt focus on economy and sort out problems, both go nment and citizens have to suffer. No point in blaming IMF. They just did their job.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) consists of 189 countries working to foster global monetary cooperation, secure financial stability, facilitate sustainable economic growth, reduce poverty around the world, etc. Ms. Gita Gopinath, a PhD in Economics from Princeton University, was appointed as Chief Economist of IMF on 1 October 2018. The IMF is mandated to oversee the international monetary and financial system and monitor the economic and financial policies of its member countries. Therefore, the IMF typically analyses the appropriateness of each member country's economic and financial policies for achieving orderly economic growth, and assesses the consequences of these policies for other countries and for theglobal economy.
What gives Mr.Ranjth the idea that his idol has ideas ? The way the things have gone wrong show that nobody in the power has an iota of useful odeas.
Narendra Modi has the ideas and the decisiveness but many of his programmes failed to make sweeping positive impact on the daily life of common man is because he is totally dependent on a century old lackluster bureaucratic system in India. He has so far failed to revamp the administrative system in India. If India needs to be developed then it must get rid of the British Raj era bureaucracy. In this highly competitive world, do you think such kind of a pathetic corrupt bureaucratic system can live up to the expectations a large country like India with such a huge population ? Just see the way the local administrative system in various states works..no accountability, no performance indicators, Govt servants come and do their job according to their wish. No credible check and balance. It is like building a house, if the foundation is weak, then the house would collapse. India has been on a weak and pathetic administrative/bureaucratic system since independence. There is no sweeping reforms in this key governance area. This is the main reason why a massive reform like GST remain less successful. Modi ji needs to act very fast on this. Dismantle the IAS...instead hire domain experts, make the administrative system strictly accountable, link their pay and benefits with their performance. I am sure the country will progress then.
Sagacious JoKeR �
Renjith(Kerala): The Prime Minister's pre-election slogan was: Modi hai toh mumkin hai (with Modi, everything is possible). And now, you're trotting out excuses on his behalf for below par performance.
Sagacious JoKeR �
Renjith: “the main reason why a massive reform like GST remain less successful.” This statement reminded me of the adage: a BAD CARPENTER blames his tools.
@Renjith, By now all know that we have the most incompetent PM, who keeps talking about others pains and ideas and himself has no clue on administration. He has given key positions to his favorites, who are as bad as him. So expecting him to fix something is next to impossible. He will keep blaming everyone and keep enjoying the perks of the position.
What 'urgent' action?? The FM Mrs. Nirmala Sitaraman has it all figured out. As a matter of fact she's so confident about the nation's economic growth, that onion price at over Rs. 100 a kilo didn't ruffle her.
Can't believe that the IMF is still forecasting a growth of 6% for India this year, no one else has a forecast of more than 4.6%. This Gita appears to be a SUPER ID10T.
The IMF is mandated to oversee the international monetary and financial system and monitor the economic and financial policies of its member countries. Therefore, the IMF typically analyses the appropriateness of each member country's economic and financial policies for achieving orderly economic growth, and assesses the consequences of these policies for other countries and for theglobal economy. Ms. Gita Gopinath, a PhD in Economics from Princeton University, was appointed as Chief Economist of IMF on 1 October 2018. Undoubtedly, she would play a significant part in the analyses of a member country's financial health.
JoKeR: No way. Ms. Nirmala Sitaraman was always a “bench warmer”. That was her function as Defence minister. Because they don't see eye to eye on a whole host of issues, the PM won't consider Dr. Subramanian Swamy, a PhD in Economics from Harvard University as Finance minister.
Sagacious JoKeR �
Bawarchi: The 48 year old Ms. Gita Gopinath, a PhD in Economics from Princeton University, is the John Zwaanstra Professor of International Studies and Economics at Harvard University – arguably the world's #1 university. Would Harvard University be associated in anyway with a “SUPER ID10T”?? �
48岁的Gita Gopinath女士是普林斯顿大学的经济学博士，是哈佛大学国际研究和经济学的John Zwaanstra教授。不管怎样，哈佛大学会不会和“超级白痴”联系在一起?
Krishan Kumar Totlani
While 90% of Countries are facing the slowdown but will someone explain, Why our Stock markets are achieving all time highs & Indians spend 19K Crore which is over 2.5 Billion USD in 6 days at Amazon and Flipkart?
Krishan Kumar Totlani: “90% of countries are facing the slowdown”. Okay, but their leaders didn't say the equivalent of “Modi hai toh mumkin hai” (With Modi in place, everything is possible).
2.5 billion USD in 6 days by Amazon and Flipkart is a guestimate. If the economy is booming, how come people are being laid off??