三泰虎

IMF:印度经济显著放缓,需采取紧急政策

IMF says India in midst of significant economic slowdown, calls for urgent policy actions

国际货币基金组织说,印度经济显著放缓,需采取紧急政策

NEW DELHI: India is in the midst of a significant economic slowdown, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has said, asking for urgent steps to reverse slowdown while continuing with credible fiscal consolidation.

国际货币基金组织表示,印度正处于严重的经济放缓中,需要采取紧急措施来扭转经济放缓趋势,同时继续实施可靠的财政整顿。

The fund released Article IV consultation report on India in Washington on Monday.

周一,国际货币基金组织在华盛顿发布了第四篇关于印度的报告。

"India is now in the midst of a significant economic slowdown…. Addressing the current downturn and returning India to a high growth path requires urgent policy actions,” Ranil Salgado of the IMF Asia and Pacific Department told reporters.

他说:“印度目前正处于严重的经济衰退之中。应对当前的经济衰退,使印度重新走上高速增长的道路,需要采取紧急的政策。”

India’s economic growth slumped to a six-year low of 4.5% in July-September quarter and many experts now expect full FY20 growth at below 5%.

印度经济增速在7 - 9月跌至4.5%的6年低点,许多专家预计2020财年的增速将低于5%。

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The report presented two scenarios with the second one pushing for significant reforms around three pillars to boost growth-—Firstly, ongoing clean-up of bank balance sheets should be complemented by a decisive strengthening of PSB governance and regulation and oversight of NBFCs, it said. Secondly, a medium-term fiscal consolidation path should be anchored by the Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management Review Committee’s recommendation to reduce general go nment debt toward 60% of GDP and thirdly, unveil labour, land and productivity reforms. The other scenario pointed ANIRBAN BORA that the country could grow by 7.3% in medium term riding on the back of reforms already taken such as Goods and Services Tax. It backed continuation of monetary easing, but cautioned against fiscal stimulus to boost growth.

报告提出了两种情况,第二种情况是推动围绕三大支柱进行重大改革,以提振增长。报告称,首先,正在进行的银行资产负债表清理工作,应辅以果断加强国有银行(PSB)治理和监管,并加强对非银机构(NBFC)的监督。其次,中期财政整固路径应以财政责任和预算管理审查委员会建议为基础,该委员会建议将政府债务削减至GDP的60%。第三,公布劳动力、土地和生产率改革。另一种情况是,在商品和服务税等改革措施的推动下,阿尼班博拉的经济在中期内可能增长7.3%。它支持继续实施货币宽松政策,但警告不要通过财政刺激来提振增长。

Growth is projected at 6.1% in 2019-20, IMF said, while adding that risks are to the downside. IMF’s chief economist Gita Gopinath had last week said that India’s growth forecast is likely to revised down “significantly” in the upcoming January review. 

IMF表示,印度2019年至2020年的经济增长率预计为6.1%,并补充说,下行风险仍在加大。国际货币基金组织首席经济学家Gita Gopinath上周表示,在即将到来的1月份评估中,印度的增长预测可能会“大幅”下调。

Credible medium-term fiscal consolidation path driven by subsidy-spending rationalisation and tax base-enhancing measures are needed to reduce debt, free up financial resources for private investment, and reduce the interest bill, the IMF said. It cautioned that the go nment has limited space to boost spending to support growth, especially given high debt levels and interest payments. 

IMF表示,印度需要在补贴支出合理化和税基增强措施的推动下,采取可信的中期财政巩固措施,以减少债务、为私人投资释放财政资源,并减少利息支出。报告警告称,政府增加支出以支持经济增长的空间有限,特别是考虑到债务水平和利息支付水平较高。

India's rapid economic expansion in recent years has lifted millions of people out of poverty. However, in the first half of 2019, a combination of factors led to subdued economic growth in India. 

印度近年来的快速经济阔张使数百万人摆脱了贫困。然而,在2019年上半年,一系列因素导致印度经济增长出现放缓。

The IMF in October slashed its forecast for 2019 by nearly a full point to 6.1%, while cutting the outlook for 2020 to 7.0%. 

国际货币基金组织10月份将2019年的经济增长预测下调了近一个百分点,至6.1%,同时将2020年的预测下调至7.0%。

 《印度经济时报》网站读者评论:

译文来源:三泰虎     http://www.santaihu.com/49053.html     译者:Joyceliu

Ankita Gupta

useful article

很有用的文章。

 

MANI Arumugam

In the present scenario, we need a competent person for the post of Finance Minister.As per Mr. Swamy's recent interaction with the public, we can give him a chance for him to be our FM. He can solve some of the chronical issues now India faces.

针对目前的形势,我们需要一个称职的人来担任财政部长。根据斯瓦米先生最近与公众的互动,我们可以给他一个机会让他担任我们的部长。他可以解决印度现在面临的一些长期问题。

 

ST, Mumbai

Because they don't see eye to eye on a whole host of issues, the PM won't consider Dr. Subramanian Swamy, a PhD in Economics from Harvard University as Finance minister. Dr. Swamy is also a strident critic of govt. policies.

由于他们在一系列问题上意见不一,总理不会考虑让哈佛大学经济学博士萨勃拉曼尼亚·斯瓦米担任财政部长。斯瓦米博士也是政府政策的尖锐批评者。

 

Indian Citizen

Though they tried to stall its implementation when they were in the opposition, the BJP was in a tearing hurry to implement GST once they formed the govt. So, they pushed through a half-baked piece of legislation. And, even had a special midnight session of Parliament to mark the roll out of Goods and Services Tax (GST) in the country. A gong sounded at midnight ‘announced’ that GST had arrived. GST was supposed to simplify a web of taxes, regulations and border levies by subsuming an array of central and state levies including excise duty, service tax and VAT – but that hasn't happened in spite of several amendments. Both GST and demonetisation has taken its toll on the smooth functioning of small businesses. The IMF has called for “urgent policy actions” to reverse the “significant economic slowdown” – i.e., growth in the second quarter of FY 2019/20 has come in at a six-year low of 4.5% (y/y). Ranil Salgado, Mission Chief for India in the IMF Asia and Pacific observed, “India already has a relatively high general go nment deficits and general go nment debt."

虽然他们作为反对党时曾试图阻止GST的实施,但人民党组成政府后就急于实施GST,所以通过了一项不成熟的立法。甚至召开了午夜特别议会会议,推出商品和服务税(GST)。半夜鸡叫,“宣布”消费税落地。GST本应通过纳入一系列中央和州征收的消费税(包括消费税、服务税和增值税)来简化税收、监管和边境税的网络,但尽管进行了数次修订,这一目标仍未实现。消费税和废钞令都对小企业的顺利运转造成了影响。国际货币基金组织呼吁采取“紧急政策行动”来扭转“严重的经济放缓”。2019/20财政年度第二季度的经济增长率为4.5%,为6年来的最低点。国际货币基金组织亚太地区印度事务负责人拉尼尔•萨尔加多表示:“印度的总体政府赤字和总体政府债务已经相对较高。”

 

ST

India already has a relatively high general go nment deficits and general go nment debt. Ranil Salgado, Mission Chief for India in the IMF Asia and Pacific is of opinion that new growth projections for India, which will come out in January, would be significantly lower than the previous ones. He added that the IMF had been surprised on India's slowdown.

印度已经有较高的政府赤字和政府债务。国际货币基金组织亚太地区印度事务负责人拉尼尔•萨尔加多认为,将于明年1月发布的印度新增长预测,将显著低于此前的预测。他补充称,IMF对印度经济放缓感到意外。

 

Analyst

No point in arguments. If GOI doesnt focus on economy and sort out problems, both go nment and citizens have to suffer. No point in blaming IMF. They just did their job.

没有必要争论。如果政府不关注经济,不解决问题,政府和公民都要遭殃。指责IMF毫无意义。他们只是完成了他们的工作。

 

ST

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) consists of 189 countries working to foster global monetary cooperation, secure financial stability, facilitate sustainable economic growth, reduce poverty around the world, etc. Ms. Gita Gopinath, a PhD in Economics from Princeton University, was appointed as Chief Economist of IMF on 1 October 2018. The IMF is mandated to oversee the international monetary and financial system and monitor the economic and financial policies of its member countries. Therefore, the IMF typically analyses the appropriateness of each member country's economic and financial policies for achieving orderly economic growth, and assesses the consequences of these policies for other countries and for theglobal economy.

国际货币基金组织由189个国家组成,致力于促进全球货币合作、确保金融稳定、促进可持续经济增长、减少全球贫困等。普林斯顿大学经济学博士Gita Gopinath女士于2018年10月1日被任命为IMF首席经济学家。国际货币基金组织的职责是监督国际货币和金融体系,并监督其成员国的经济和金融政策。因此,IMF通常会分析每个成员国为实现有序经济增长而采取的经济和金融政策的适宜性,并评估这些政策对其他国家和全球经济的影响。

 

Yeshwant Pande

What gives Mr.Ranjth the idea that his idol has ideas ? The way the things have gone wrong show that nobody in the power has an iota of useful odeas.

是什么让ranjth先生觉得他的偶像有办法?现在印度出问题了,这表明长权者中没有人可行的经验。

 

Renjith

Narendra Modi has the ideas and the decisiveness but many of his programmes failed to make sweeping positive impact on the daily life of common man is because he is totally dependent on a century old lackluster bureaucratic system in India. He has so far failed to revamp the administrative system in India. If India needs to be developed then it must get rid of the British Raj era bureaucracy. In this highly competitive world, do you think such kind of a pathetic corrupt bureaucratic system can live up to the expectations a large country like India with such a huge population ? Just see the way the local administrative system in various states works..no accountability, no performance indicators, Govt servants come and do their job according to their wish. No credible check and balance. It is like building a house, if the foundation is weak, then the house would collapse. India has been on a weak and pathetic administrative/bureaucratic system since independence. There is no sweeping reforms in this key governance area. This is the main reason why a massive reform like GST remain less successful. Modi ji needs to act very fast on this. Dismantle the IAS...instead hire domain experts, make the administrative system strictly accountable, link their pay and benefits with their performance. I am sure the country will progress then.

纳伦德拉•莫迪有想法和决断力,但他的许多计划未能对普通人的日常生活产生广泛的积极影响,因为他完全依赖印度一个世纪以来乏善可陈的官僚体系。他迄今未能改革印度的行政体制。如果印度要发展,必须摆脱英国统治时期的官僚主义。在这个高度竞争的世界,你认为这样一个可悲的附败的官僚体系能够满足像印度这样一个人口众多的大国的期望吗?看看各邦地方行政系统的运作方式就知道了。没有问责制,没有绩效指标,公务员工作时完全看心情。没有可信的制约手段。这就像建房子一样,如果地基薄弱,房子就会倒塌。自独立以来,印度一直是一个软弱和可悲的行政/官僚体系。这就是为什么像消费税这样的大规模改革无法成功的主要原因。莫迪应该尽快采取行动。雇佣各个领域的专家,行政系统采取严格问责制度,将他们的薪酬和福利与政绩相挂钩。我相信国家会进步的。

 

Sagacious JoKeR �

Renjith(Kerala): The Prime Minister's pre-election slogan was: Modi hai toh mumkin hai (with Modi, everything is possible). And now, you're trotting out excuses on his behalf for below par performance.

Renjith(喀拉拉邦):总理选举前的口号是:莫迪,一切皆有可能。而现在,你却在为他表现不佳找借口。

 

Sagacious JoKeR �

Renjith: “the main reason why a massive reform like GST remain less successful.” This statement reminded me of the adage: a BAD CARPENTER blames his tools.

Renjith:“为什么像消费税这样的大规模改革仍然不那么成功的主要原因。这句话让我想起了那句格言:拙匠只会怪罪工具差。

 

Raman

@Renjith, By now all know that we have the most incompetent PM, who keeps talking about others pains and ideas and himself has no clue on administration. He has given key positions to his favorites, who are as bad as him. So expecting him to fix something is next to impossible. He will keep blaming everyone and keep enjoying the perks of the position.

@Renjith现在大家都知道我们有最无能的总理,他总是谈论别人的痛苦和想法,而他自己对国家治理一无所知。他把关键职位给了和他一样坏的亲信。所以指望他来解决问题几乎是不可能的。他会继续指责每个人,继续享受这个职位带来的好处。

 

Indian Citizen

What 'urgent' action?? The FM Mrs. Nirmala Sitaraman has it all figured out. As a matter of fact she's so confident about the nation's economic growth, that onion price at over Rs. 100 a kilo didn't ruffle her.

“紧急”行动?尼尔玛拉·西塔拉曼夫人已经把一切都弄清楚了。事实上,她对印度的经济增长非常有信心,洋葱价格超过每公斤100卢比也没有让她不安。

 

Bawarchi

Can't believe that the IMF is still forecasting a growth of 6% for India this year, no one else has a forecast of more than 4.6%. This Gita appears to be a SUPER ID10T.

不敢相信国际货币基金组织仍然预测印度今年的经济增长率能达到6%,已经没有人敢预测超过4.6%了。这个Gita似乎是一个超级白痴。

 

ST

The IMF is mandated to oversee the international monetary and financial system and monitor the economic and financial policies of its member countries. Therefore, the IMF typically analyses the appropriateness of each member country's economic and financial policies for achieving orderly economic growth, and assesses the consequences of these policies for other countries and for theglobal economy. Ms. Gita Gopinath, a PhD in Economics from Princeton University, was appointed as Chief Economist of IMF on 1 October 2018. Undoubtedly, she would play a significant part in the analyses of a member country's financial health.

国际货币基金组织的职责是监督国际货币和金融体系,并监督其成员国的经济和金融政策。因此,IMF通常会分析每个成员国为实现有序经济增长而采取的经济和金融政策的适宜性,并评估这些政策对其他国家和全球经济的影响。普林斯顿大学经济学博士Gita Gopinath女士于2018年10月1日被任命为IMF首席经济学家。毫无疑问,她将在分析一个成员国的财政健康状况方面发挥着重要作用。

 

Indian Citizen

JoKeR: No way. Ms. Nirmala Sitaraman was always a “bench warmer”. That was her function as Defence minister. Because they don't see eye to eye on a whole host of issues, the PM won't consider Dr. Subramanian Swamy, a PhD in Economics from Harvard University as Finance minister.

JoKeR:不可能。Nirmala Sitaraman女士一直是个“候补”。这就是她作为国防部长的职责。由于他们在一系列问题上意见不一,总理不会考虑让哈佛大学经济学博士萨勃拉曼尼亚·斯瓦米担任财政部长。

 

Sagacious JoKeR �

Bawarchi: The 48 year old Ms. Gita Gopinath, a PhD in Economics from Princeton University, is the John Zwaanstra Professor of International Studies and Economics at Harvard University – arguably the world's #1 university. Would Harvard University be associated in anyway with a “SUPER ID10T”?? �

48岁的Gita Gopinath女士是普林斯顿大学的经济学博士,是哈佛大学国际研究和经济学的John Zwaanstra教授。不管怎样,哈佛大学会不会和“超级白痴”联系在一起?

 

Krishan Kumar Totlani

While 90% of Countries are facing the slowdown but will someone explain, Why our Stock markets are achieving all time highs & Indians spend 19K Crore which is over 2.5 Billion USD in 6 days at Amazon and Flipkart?

90%的国家都面临经济放缓的形势,为什么我们的股票市场创下了历史新高,印度人6天内在亚马逊和Flipkart花了1900亿卢比,也就是超过25亿美元?

 

Sagacious JoKeR

Krishan Kumar Totlani: “90% of countries are facing the slowdown”. Okay, but their leaders didn't say the equivalent of “Modi hai toh mumkin hai” (With Modi in place, everything is possible).

托特拉尼:“90%的国家面临经济放缓。”好吧,但是他们的领导人没有说类似“莫迪万岁”的话(莫迪上台后,一切皆有可能)。

 

Indian Citizen

2.5 billion USD in 6 days by Amazon and Flipkart is a guestimate. If the economy is booming, how come people are being laid off??

6天内在亚马逊和Flipkart花费的25亿美元只是猜测。如果经济蓬勃发展,为什么会有人下岗呢?

 外文链接:https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/policy/imf-calls-for-urgent-action-by-india-amid-slowdown/articleshow/72948133.cms

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