三泰虎

观点:印度经济如何回归现实

View: How India's economy came back down to earth

观点:印度经济如何回归现实

India's economy lost its sheen this year. As it stumbles through a deep slowdown and a credit crisis, the country has gone from being hailed as a colossus-in-waiting to placing among the also-rans.

印度经济今年黯淡无光。印度艰难地经历经济严重放缓和信贷危机,已经从一个被誉为“明日巨人”的国家变成了一个“失败者”。

Rarely has a major economy had such a humbling turn in fortunes. In the third quarter, gross domestic product rose 4.5% from a year earlier, about half the pace notched in the first part of 2018. Consumer confidence has tumbled to the lowest level since 2014. The labor market, a vital indicator in a country with a population of 1.4 billion, is fragile: The jobless rate has climbed to a 45-year high of 6.1%.

很少有主要经济体的命运出现如此不堪的转变。第三季度国内生产总值同比增长4.5%,仅为2018年上半年增速的一半。消费者信心跌至2014年以来的最低水平。劳动力市场是一个拥有14亿人口的国家的一个重要指标,却很脆弱:失业率已攀升至6.1%,创45年新高。

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Just last year, India was the world’s fastest growing major economy. The past decade has been replete with predictions it would take up an increasing share of global commerce, alongside China and America. But the Philippines and Indonesia grew quicker than India last quarter and Malaysia was just a hair behind. China, grappling with its own slowdown, logged a respectable 6% and Vietnam was way ahead at 7.3%.

就在去年,印度还是世界上增长最快的主要经济体。在过去的十年里,人们预测印度将与中国和美国一道,在全球贸易中占据越来越大的份额。但菲律宾和印尼上一季度的增长速度快于印度,马来西亚紧随其后。正在努力应对自身经济放缓的中国经济增速达到了可观的6%,而越南则以7.3%遥遥领先。

Much of this comes down to the country's broken financial system. Indian banks struggle with a load of bad loans that's among the biggest in the world. Overextended traditional lenders gave way to shadow banks. They, too, ran into walls. One of the most prominent, Infrastructure Leasing & Financial Services Ltd., defaulted last year, setting off a liquidity crisis. While the go nment took control of the company in an effort to contain the damage, their work was just beginning: Last month, the central bank removed the management of Dewan Housing Finance Corp., a big player in mortgages, and sent it to bankruptcy court. Lenders have pulled in their reins across the board.

这在很大程度上要归咎于印度支离破碎的金融体系。印度的银行正与世界上最庞大的坏账做斗争。过度阔张的传统放贷机构让位于影子银行。其中最著名的基建租赁及金融服务有限公司去年违约,引发了流动性危机。虽然政府接管了这家公司控制损失,但他们的工作才刚刚开始:上个月,央行撤掉了抵押贷款领域的大公司Dewan Housing Finance Corp.的管理层,并将其送上破产法庭。放贷机构已经全面收紧了控制。

Alarmingly for the Reserve Bank of India, these clogs in the financial pipes mean five interest-rate cuts this year haven't packed much punch. Despite early and aggressive action to lower rates, all the benefits of looser monetary policy aren’t flowing through to the real economy. In difficult times, central bankers usually keep a firm and credible hand on the rudder. But the RBI has surprised investors a few times this year. An unusual 35 basis-point cut in August, rather than the quarter percentage point economists anticipated, looked frivolous rather than clever. A reduction this month seemed like a sure thing until officials balked. That was a shocking mistake.

对印度央行来说,令人担忧的是,这些金融管道的堵塞意味着今年的五次降息还未产生太大影响。尽管央行很早就采取了积极的降息行动,但宽松货币政策的所有好处并没有流入实体经济。在困难时期,央行行长们通常会牢牢把握住方向。但印度央行今年有几次让投资者感到意外。8月份出人意料地降息35个基点,而非经济学家预期的25个基点,看起来十分轻率,不是明智之举。

This slump doesn't have to be the end of India's run. As wrenching as the Asian financial crisis was for the “tiger economies” of Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia and South Korea, they emerged stronger after painful recessions. Officials bolstered reserves, constrained foreign-currency borrowing and scrutinized debt levels while central banks became more independent. While growth is lower in the aftermath, it’s also more sustainable.

这场衰退并不一定意味着印度经济的终结。尽管亚洲金融危机对印尼、泰国、马来西亚和韩国等“小经济体”造成了痛苦,但它们在经历了痛苦的衰退后变得更加强大。在各国央行变得更加独立的同时,官们增加了外汇储备,限制了外币借款,并严格审查了债务水平。虽然经济增长在危机过后有所放缓,但也更具有可持续性。

India will always be more important to the world economy than the Philippines or Malaysia. Even if activity slows to a snail's pace for a while, its sheer size makes its contribution to global growth far more valuable. As soon as next year, India's monetary and fiscal stimulus will begin to kick in. The economy will likely grow about 5% this year and pick up to 6% in 2020, says Shilan Shah of Capital Economics.

对世界经济而言,印度永远比菲律宾或马来西亚更重要。即使经济发展速度放缓,其庞大的规模也会使其对全球增长的贡献变得更有价值。印度的货币和财政刺激最早将于明年开始生效。Capital Economics的希兰•沙阿表示,今年的经济增长率可能在5%左右,到2020年将达到6%。

 以下是《印度经济时报》网站读者评论:

译文来源:三泰虎     http://www.santaihu.com/49105.html      译者:Joyceliu

Arcane 777

It does not matter how great your economic data is unless you curb rampant co ption which India is well known for. This injury will reduce all the gains to zero if not dealt with decisively.

你的经济数据有多好并不重要,除非你能遏制印度众所周知的猖獗附败。如果不果断处理,这个害群之马将使所有的经济发展结果最终归零。

 

Ahmed Marecar

India economy operates direction not satisfied.

印度经济运行方向令人不甚满意。

 

Melman Const

RBI reduced interest rate, public tightened their spending. RBI thought India is like Japan or USA.

印度央行降低利率,公众紧缩开支。印度央行认为印度就像日本或美国。

 

Srinivas

It has reached the core magma long ago!

早就到达了跌破谷底了。

 

Sujith Ram

Let go nment form a joint action committee consists of opposition leaders, distinguished economists ,Financers& agriculturists and representatives of MNCs to tackle the situation.

让政府成立一个由反对派领袖、杰出的经济学家、金融和农业学家以及跨国公司的代表组成的联合行动委员会,来解决这一问题。

 

Nilesh Khedikar

To address the problem of npa, what India needs is PCR - public credit registry which can monitor all loans real-time and help track such frauds with automation

为了解决不良资产的问题,印度需要的是PCR——能够实时监控所有贷款并通过自动化来帮助跟踪此类欺诈行为的公共信用登记系统。

 

Aam Aadmi

Hopefully next year India will perform well !

希望明年印度表现良好!

 

G.Ranga Chary

Export oriented economies suffer more in their growth rates, when world economies face recessionary conditions, not withstanding the form of Government they have, Viz. Democratic, or otherwise.Till introduction of economic reforms in India in 1992 and integration of Indian Economy with International Economies, software exports' contribution in GDP growth increased to more than 50% and this is main cause for fall in growth rate of our economy for the last few years. Adding to this manufacturing sector's ever falling growth is resulting in increased unemployment and decreased consumption demand, leading to further crisis.The long term solution to this problem is to develop India's domestic market, by initiating suitable policy measures.

当世界经济面临衰退的情况时,出口导向型经济体的增长率受到的影响更大,这与它们现有的政府形式(皿煮或其他形式)无关。印度1992年实施经济改革,印度经济与国际经济接轨,软件出口对GDP增长的贡献率上升到50%以上,这也是近几年来印度经济增速下降的主要原因。再加上制造业增长的不断下降,导致失业率上升,消费需求下降,导致进一步的危机。解决这一问题的长期办法是采取适当的政策措施,刺激印度国内市场。

 

Indian Soul

You are right Sir. We must also read the status of Imports also.As all know, India is a consumer country where we imports more than export.Weak performance of INR in FOREX against USD leads to price hike as well. Importors are forced to make payments more in INR value for goods. But crude oil price was almost stable in past couple of months but started raising now which will be double impact to fragile Indian economy.

您说得对,先生。我们还必须看到商品进口的情况。众所周知,印度是一个消费大国,我们的进口大于出口。印度卢比兑美元汇率的疲软表现也导致了价格的上涨。进口者被迫按商品的内在价值支付更多的货款。但原油价格在过去几个月基本稳定,但现在开始上涨,这将对脆弱的印度经济造成双重影响。

 

Joji Cherian

"Here’s a de acy with a robust federal system and an independent judiciary, they argue". Robust fedral system? We watch it every day."an independent judiciary" We saw in Babri Judgment how independent just it was. petition 370 abrogation. still pending after 5 months.

“他们辩称,印度是一个皿煮国家,拥有健全的联邦体系和独立的司法体系。”健全的联邦体系?我们都有眼睛自己观察。独立的司法体系?我们在巴布里的判决中看到了这种独立性。申请370废除,可5个月后仍悬而未决。

 

Behead This Traitor

There is a common knowledge that When people have no rational, logical, reasonable arguments they resort to name calling. At least pay tax if you can't contribute positive. At least remain silent instead of unleashing negative forces.

大家都知道,当人们没有理性、逻辑、合理的理由时,他们就会骂人。如果你不能做出积极的贡献,至少要交税。或者至少保持沉默,而不是传播负能量。

 

Saji Shayam

Pal, Don't mix your political ideologies with economics &finance which is a grey area for your leaders..You just attend political lectures from your dimwit leadership. Stop acting as a saviour of Hinduism & nation.Bring up reading and learning habit and start reading books other than your party mouthpiece articles also watch/listen other shows than "Mann Ki Baath".All the best.

朋友,不要把你的政治意识形态与经济和金融混为一谈,这对你们的领导人来说是灰色地带。你只是在听你那笨蛋领导的政治演讲。不要再表现得像个印度教和国家的救世主。培养阅读和学习的习惯,开始阅读党报以外的书籍,看/听“复兴”以外的节目。愿一切都好!

 

Rahul

Industry is not growing, No innovation, High Income Tax, High grocery price. Overall economy falling.

工业没有增长,没有创新,高收入税,高物价。整体经济下滑。

 

Harivadan Dalal

Dear writer, please go and save Britain.

亲爱的作家,请你去救救英国吧。

 

Thangjom Chelmang

India is occupied by Hindu Terrorists

印度被印度教恐怖分子占领了。

 

Venkatesh Babu Kr

For the amount of contradictions they have in the society, and for the amount of co ption each individual can do, who will trust pseudo Hindus?

社会上有那么多的矛盾,每个人都那么附败,谁会相信虚伪的印度教呢?

 

Sanjeev

You sound like a frustrated one who could not compete in school and college.I am from a Brahmin family. Studied engineering with National scholership. Completed MTech from IIT Bombay. I have worked for last 25 years outside India and invested most of my savings in India. I will return to India after retirement.

你听起来就像一个无法在学校和大学里竞争的失意者。我来自婆罗门家庭。拿着国家奖学金学习工程学专业,从印度理工学院孟买分校毕业。我在印度境外工作了25年,把大部分积蓄投资在印度。我会在退休后返回印度。

 

Think Tank

Sanjeev you are brilliant. And given rupee has depreciated your investments in India is worth peanuts. Good luck investing and making money in India. In India buying a 1 crore 2 bedroom apartment for which less than Rs 20,000 per month rent is called investment. Utter nonsense

Sanjeev,你很聪明。既然卢比贬值了,你在印度的投资就不值几个钱了。祝你在印度投资赚大钱哦。在印度花1000万购买每月租金低于2万卢比的2卧公寓也能称得上投资?荒谬!

 

Som Nath Sharma

India is in the pain for the last five-six years. The falling rate of growth combined with job loss and a slump in exports and de-industrialisation.India needs well informed leadership with sound understanding of issues involved.

印度在过去的五六年里一直处于痛苦之中。经济增长率下降,加上失业、出口下滑和去工业化。印度需要见多识广的领导人,对所遇到的问题有充分的理解。

 

Thangjom Chelmang

What about Hindu low breeds from upper caste that occupy all the posts in go nment & screwed up everything from incompetency, co ption & favouritism. Your knowledge is screwed up & shallow. Shame on your calibre

那些来自高种姓的印度贱人占据了政府的所有职位,无能、附败、徇私,搞砸了一切。你的知识很肤浅。真为你的才干感到羞耻

 

Kavi Tanna

Is there a slowdown? Hmmm I didnt realize with the hundred 20 articles written every day about it.

经济放缓了?嗯,嗯,我并没有感觉到,每天都有120篇关于这个问题的文章。

外文链接:https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/finance/how-indias-economy-came-back-down-to-earth/articleshow/73021942.cms

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