Country could be passing through recession: Abhijit Banerjee

阿比吉特•班纳吉：印度可能正在经历经济衰退

Nobel laureate and economist Abhijit Banerjee on Monday said the country could be passing through a phase of recession, and there is "nothing in the data" that suggests otherwise.

诺贝尔经济学奖得主、经济学家阿比吉特•班纳吉周一表示，印度可能正在经历一段衰退时期，“数据中没有任何”相反的迹象。

Banerjee, during an address at the Kolkata Literary Meet, also said the priority of the government should be on refinancing the banking sector, which is in "doldrums".

班纳吉在加尔各答文学会议上发表讲话时还表示，政府的优先任务应该是为“低迷”的银行业进行再融资。

"What I can say is that we could be in a recession. But, I don't know by how much. There is nothing in the data that suggests we could not be in a recession," the author of 'Good Economics for Hard Times' said.

“我能说的是，我们可能会陷入衰退。但是，我不知道会有多严重。数据中没有任何迹象表明我们不会陷入衰退。

He also advocated imposition of wealth tax and more redistribution.

他还主张征收财富税，并进行更多的财富再分配。

"Given the current state of inequality in India, a wealth tax is completely sensible. In such a case, more redistribution is required, and I expect this not to happen soon," Banerjee said.

“鉴于印度目前的不平等状况，征收财富税是完全合理的。在这种情况下，需要更多的财富再分配，我预计这不会很快发生。”

The 58-year-old Indian-American economist said the banking and infrastructure sectors were in need of funding from the government.

这位58岁的印裔美国经济学家表示，银行和基础设施行业需要来自政府的资金。

"The banking sector is in doldrums. It needs huge funding by the government. The Centre should also look at infrastructure sector funding," he said.

“银行业一片萧条。它需要来自政府的巨额资金。中央政府还应关注基础设施领域的融资，”他表示。

Talking about the informal sector, the Nobel laureate said there is no reliable data on it. "The statistical apparatus is incapable of capturing short-term data on the informal sector."

在谈到非公部门时，这位诺贝尔奖得主表示，这方面没有可靠的数据。“统计机构无法获得非公部门的短期数据。”

Banerjee also favoured the central government's move to privatise PSUs like Air India.

班纳吉还支持中央政府将印度航空公司等印度企业私有化。

On the recent cut in corporate taxes by the government, he said, "It seems the corporate sector is sitting on huge cash".

在最近下调企业所得税政府的问题上，他表示:“企业部门似乎坐拥巨额现金。”

 以下是《印度经济时报》网友评论： 

 译文来源：三泰虎    http://www.santaihu.com/49262.html       译者：Joyceliu 

Mihir Mishra

Even financiers of this guy does not follow his advice. He is just a tool to make India a lab of west before west implements in their own countries.

这个家伙的金融专家也不会听从他的建议。他只是一个工具，在西方国家对自己的国家着手实施之前，让印度成为西方的实验室。

Sharad M

No solutions offered. Appears to be only Critical

没有提出解决方案。似乎只是为了批评而批评。

Ashok Agrawal

Redistribution of income and wealth presupposes adequate growth in the first place. Growth is stuttering and inequality between vast middle class (about 40% consisting of lower,middle and upper) and upper classes is widening rapidly.Govt continues to give doles to poor without enforcing their earning capacity. First rectify the systems and processes which create and widen disparity. Post facto redistribution of wealth should be secondary priority. Wonder,why Mr.Abhijit is not enumerating various areas which are contributing to income disparities.

收入和财富的再分配首先以充分的增长为前提。经济增长停滞不前，巨大的中产阶级(约40%，由下层、中层和上层组成)和上层阶级之间的不平等正在迅速扩大。政府继续向穷人发放救济，却没有提高他们的赚钱能力。首先，要纠正造成和扩大差距的制度和过程。财富再分配应该是次要的优先事项。我想知道，为什么阿比吉特先生不列举导致收入差距的各个方面。

A Singh

These so called Noble award winners are the biggest jokers.

这些所谓的诺贝尔奖得主是最大的跳梁小丑。

Harish

He is a mad person claiming to be economist like his bro Sen.

他是一个自称经济学家的疯子，就像他的兄弟森一样。

Ram

It is funny that this gentlemen always sees negatively India. He has not uttered single positive word. When India is in recession how FDI will improve and FIIs will invest. Even FPIs are upbeat about India growth. We don't want negative minded people to give non sense ideas like wealth tax etc.,which was abolished long back. As lot of middle class is owning more than one flat, wealth tax should not be there which will discourage housing sector.

有趣的是，这位先生总是对印度持负面看法。他没有说过一句肯定的话。当印度经济衰退时，外国直接投资将如何改善，外国投资机构将如何投资。即使是FPIs也对印度的增长持乐观态度。我们不希望思想消极的人给出毫无意义的想法，如财富税等，这在很久前就被废除了。由于许多中产阶级拥有不止一套住房，不应该征收财富税，这会打击房地产行业。

Deepesh Sao

All I know is that he is a Co unist. Matter closed for me.

我只知道他是个*主义者。对我来说这就够了。

Kanakasabhai Natarajan

He is a co unist and in the US no one bothers about his theory of reviving it in India. He says India with a growth rate of 5% confirmed by World Bank and IMF is in recession negating the economic theory which says an economy with two quarters of negative growth is in recession. In India there is so much of freedom to talk rubbish and media to publish that this guy along with his co unist friend Amartya Sen spend all the time in India talking rubbish.

他是一名*主义者，在美国，没人在乎他在印度复兴*主义的言论。他说，世界银行和国际货币基金组织确认的印度经济增长率为5%，印度正处于衰退之中。在印度，人们可以自由地谈论垃圾，媒体也可以发表言论，这个家伙和他的*主义朋友阿马蒂亚·森一直在印度瞎比比。

Mathew Thomas

Imposing wealth tax at this time is outright silly and stupid looking at the state of the economy.

在这个时候征收财富税，从经济状况来看，是非常愚蠢的。

Anonymous

He should be more responsible with his statements and at least honor his stature ...

他应该对自己的言论更负责，至少应该尊重自己的地位……

Devinder

Abhijeet has right to express his opinion and get applauded by so called literary intectuals in kolkatta.

阿比吉特有权表达自己的观点，得到加尔各答所谓的文学遗产的称赞。

Avnindra Baranwal

Kolkata was a business hub (and has finance knowledge, to the core). These idiots, made it a slum. Mumbai some how become industrial and SLUMS. So all these talks are nonsence and biased!

加尔各答是一个商业中心(核心是拥有金融知识)。这些白痴，把这里变成了贫民窟。孟买的一些地方变成了工业和贫民窟。所以这些谈话都是没有意义、带有偏见的！

KD

Mr Banerjee you are a US citizen and it is not wise to comment on internal working of foreign government. Take a citizenship of India and then comment on India's internal matters.

班纳吉先生，你是美国公民，评论外国政府的国内事务是不明智的做法。你应该在获得印度公民身份后再来评论印度的国内事务。

Jaideep Das

i don't see any symptoms. If India ia in recession then FDI would not have come on regular basis.Now firms are also investing heavily on start up .....Black money circulation has gone down due to GST and ED. That is effecting GDP figure but not life of common people. Do u want us to believe that Amazon chief is an Idiot? who without knowing or studying invested fresh funds and tht too in Billions ....are all are nuts?????

我没有看到任何毛病。如果印度经济衰退，那么外国直接投资就不会进入印度了。现在企业也在加大投资力度…由于商品服务税的影响，黑钱的流通减少了，这对GDP数据有影响，但对老百姓的生活没有影响。你想让我们相信亚马逊的老板是个白痴吗？他们啥也不懂，啥也不研究，就贸然投资数十亿的新资金…你当他们都是傻子么？

Ravie Gupta

we don't see any symptoms of recession. these ups and downs are part of economics and are not happening for first time.

我们没有看到任何衰退的迹象。这些起起落落是经济学的一部分，不是第一次发生了。

Kavi Tanna

And of course there is no solution offered. Media seems to be giving wrong advice like tax cuts which never work in slow downs as people simply pocket savings as they are fearful of economy. Best thing to do is repair relationship with Gadkari and up spending on infrastructure which will create new jobs and productive assets - all of which boosts demand.

当然也没有解决办法。媒体似乎给出了错误的建议，比如减税，这在经济放缓的时候从来不能奏效，因为人们会因为害怕经济恶化而只想把钱存起来。最好的办法是修复与Gadkari的关系，增加基础设施投资，创造新的就业机会和生产性资产，所有这些都能刺激需求。

H K Doshi

Banerjee is old snake who will vommt poisons on India as and when opportunity available to him..

班纳吉是老奸巨猾的毒蛇，只要有机会，就会向印度投毒。

Sanjay Sinha

Sir: Mr. Banerjee just got Noble Prize analysing India's poverty. He must now SPEAK to news hungry reporters Let us allow him and CLAP.

先生：班纳吉先生刚刚获得诺贝尔奖，现在分析了印度的贫困问题。他现在必须向新闻饥渴的记者们讲点什么，让我们有请他发表演讲并热烈鼓掌。

Vinod Saini

Abhijeet Banerjee got Nobel price for " experimental approach to alleviating global poverty". It will be good if he gives comment in his specialized area rather than commenting on countries economy that too influenced by politics.

班纳吉因“减轻全球贫困的实验方法”而获得诺贝尔奖。如果他能在自己的专业领域发表评论，而不是评论受政治影响太大的国家经济，那就再好不过了。

Shaleen Nath Tripathi

You: GDP Constant Prices in India is expected to be 38147.00 INR Billion by the end of this quarter in 2019 and 34427 INR Billion in 2018, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate GDP Constant Prices in India to stand at 38153.00 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the India GDP Constant Prices is projected to trend around 42465.00 INR Billion in 2020, according to our econometric models.according to the above data the INDIAN economy expended 10.8% in 2019 and would expand 11%% in 2020...

根据Trading Economics全球宏观模型和分析师的预期，到2019年本季度末，印度国内生产总值固定价格预计为381470亿印度卢比，2018年为344270亿印度卢比。展望未来，我们预计12个月内，印度国内生产总值固定价格将达到381530亿印度卢比。根据我们的经济计量模型，从长期来看，预计2020年印度国内生产总值固定价格将在424650亿印度卢比左右。根据上述数据，印度经济在2019年增长了10.8%，在2020年将增长11%。。。

Shaleen Nath Tripathi

If inflation is 6% how there could be a slowdown... Recession is often market by a period of low demand and prices and high unemployment and low growth and vice-versa... A recent study shows that prices and growth are positively correlated... Low growth means low demand and low inflation and high growth means high demand and prices... INDIA is growing 5% every quarter and 20% every year...

如果通胀率是6%，经济怎么可能放缓……经济衰退通常是由一段时期的低需求、低价格、高失业率和低增长造成的，反之亦然。最近的一项研究表明，价格和增长是正相关的。低增长意味着低需求和低通胀，而高增长意味着高需求和高价格……印度每季度增长5%，每年增长20%…

Aditya Sinha

But India is definately slip into Stagflation.

但印度肯定会陷入滞胀。

Shaleen Nath Tripathi

6.1% unemployment rate is very good after disruptions like demonetisation and gst... 6% inflation would incentivise business during low growth rate... Stagflation is high inflation and unemployment... The RBI must consider tolerating 8% inflation during low growth... it would only make little difference... The US is doing the same considering higher inflation target... Higher inflation and lower and stable real interest rate expectation could help increase spending... Higher inflation target would lower interest rate, would increase spending, but not long delay in rate cuts and transmission by the commercial banks...

在经历了废钞化和商品及服务税等改革后，6.1%的失业率已经非常不错了…6%的通货膨胀将在低增长时期刺激商贸…滞胀是指高通胀和高失业率…印度储备银行必须考虑在低增长时期容忍8%的通胀…这不会有什么不同…考虑到更高的通胀目标，美国也在做同样的事情。更高的通胀、更低且稳定的实际利率预期可能有助于增加支出……更高的通胀目标会降低利率，增加支出，但不会长期推迟降息和商业银行的传导……

Jnp

I think Abhijeet Banarjee was in hibernation earlier now has been waken up

我想班纳吉先生之前是在冬眠，现在苏醒过来了。

Govindan T C

They are all Western-trained guys and do not know India's spiritual power. Baba Ramdev and Yogi Adithianath have shown that yoga's are more cable than Western-educated Indian Guys whose main aim is to get man-made prizes created out of the money obtained from nature destructive materiel and looting other countries. The Majority of Yogis are enlightened persons and know what is everlasting happiness. Some Yogis show their power openly and some people use it secretly as and when India needs help. So Modi Ji is getting brilliant suggestions from unknown sources on how to achieve a 5 trillion US$ economy. So Abhijit Banerjee should learn what is that spiritual power from Indian Yogis and what is the purpose of human life. Getting prizes and awards and enjoying life is not the purpose of human life. He does not know what is the purpose of human life.

他们都是受过西方教育的人，不知道印度的精神力量。Baba Ramdev和Yogi Adithianath已经证明，瑜伽比那些受过西方教育的印度人更有能力，他们的主要目标是用从破坏自然的材料和掠夺其他国家获得的金钱来获得人为的奖励。大多数瑜伽士都是开悟的人，知道什么是永恒的幸福。有些瑜伽士公开展示他们的力量，有些人在印度需要帮助时偷偷出手相助。所以莫迪从未知来源获得了如何实现5万亿美元经济的绝妙建议。所以班纳吉先生应该向印度瑜伽士学习什么是精神力量，人活一世的目的是什么。获得奖励和享受生活不是人类生活的目的。他不知道人生的目的是什么。

Murali Krishna Brahmandam

As long as Indian governments: central and state, continue in India, Indian economy will be stay in recession. Governments must be shut down for better future for all

只要印度政府：中央政府和邦政府，继续留在印度，印度经济就会继续衰退。为了所有人更美好的未来，必须让政府关门。

Anup Nanda

This bangali has been talking & commenting a lot since wng Nobel. Where have you been all these days/months/years dude?

自从获得诺贝尔奖以来，这个班纳吉一直在喋喋不休、指手画脚。之前的岁月里，你在哪呢?

Arvinder Singh

The most important task is to control population and educate the pepole. The wealth at higher level isincreasing very fast. The only solution is give money to middle class for upliftment of economy.

最重要的任务是控制人口和教育人民。更高层次的财富增长非常快。唯一的解决办法就是给中产阶级钱来促进经济发展。

Krantikari Bahadur

he is right there was no need for corporate tax cut and wealth tax is necessary

他是对的，没有必要削减公司税，但有必要征收财产税

John

its appreciated that he care so mucb about kids cough & fever (india banks) but Nobel Laureate Dr should focus on cancer of adults (US Banking). Adult's slow death is more dangerous to kids than seasonal fever.

我们很欣赏他对儿童咳嗽和发烧的关心(印度银行)，但是诺贝尔奖获得者应该关注成年人的癌症(美国银行)。成人衰老比影响儿童的季节性发热更危险。

Shri

INDIA IS IN RECESSION. SO ARE CHINA, EUROPE, AMERICA, JAPAN ETC ONCE BUBBLES POP IN STOCKS AND REALTY. BETTER PREPARE WELL AND RISE OUT. NO WORRIES. CHEERS

印度正处于衰退之中。一旦股市和房地产业的泡沫破裂，、欧洲、美国、日本等国也会陷入同样的境地。最好做好准备，雄起。不用担心。干杯

外文链接：https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/indicators/country-could-be-passing-through-recession-abhijit-banerjee/articleshow/73674276.cms