三泰虎

印度经济需要莫迪总理再次自我改造

View India’s economy needs PM Modi to reinvent himself — again

印度经济需要莫迪总理再次自我改造

It’s now offi al: The Indian economy is suffering through a major slowdown, and one that shows no immediate sign of easing. The only surprise is that the estimate for growth in gross domestic product last quarter isn’t even lower than the announced 4.5%.

When the Narendra Modi-led go nment presented its first budget after being re-ed, it expected growth in 2019-20 to be around 7%. A few months later, the Reserve Bank of India slashed that to 6.1%. It is hard, now, to see how even that rate — relatively slow by India’s past standards — will be achieved.

Since early in his first term, Modi has largely abandoned his campaign promise to get go nment out of business. Instead, he’s relied on the public sector to build a welfare state and prop up growth. In the heady years, as falling oil prices flattered Indian growth and fattened the treasury, it looked like his strategy was working.

官方数据显示:印度经济正在经历一场严重的放缓,而且目前还没有放缓的迹象。唯一令人意外的是,对上一季度国内生产总值增速的预期甚至没有低于4.5%。

纳伦德拉•莫迪领导的政府在连任后提交了第一份预算,预计2019年至2020年的经济增长率将在7%左右。几个月后,印度央行将这一比例下调至6.1%。现在,即使是这个速度——按印度过去的标准衡量相对缓慢——也很难实现。

自从第一个任期伊始,莫迪就基本上放弃了让政府破产的竞选承诺。相反,他依靠公共部门打造福利国家并支撑经济增长。在经济繁荣时期,油价下跌促进了印度的经济增长,增加了国库收入,看起来他的策略奏效了。

But the money is rapidly running out. Including spending by provincial administrations, the deficit is approaching 8% of GDP. Cms that public spending would make investment more attractive for the private sector have not been borne out. There simply isn’t enough money to go around — with the go nment taking the lion’s share of financial savings, private investment has to be content with the meager leavings.

India’s go nment has nobody else to blame. The economy has slowed in the past — most recently, during the commodity boom and the “taper tantrum” — but on each such occasion there was some sort of exogenous cmity it had to deal with. There hasn’t been a bad monsoon, or sudden commodity price inflation, or a bnce-of-payments crisis. The world economy isn’t exactly booming, yet export-oriented economies like Vietnam and Bangladesh seem to be doing fine. Vietnam grew at 7.3% in the last quarter, and Bangladesh may see two successive years of 8% growth.

Mismanagement at home and increasing prectionism abroad have ensured that India has dropped out of that group of fast-growing emerging economies. It’s fashionable in India to worry about slum consumer demand and blame it for the slowdown. The remedy, some argue, is to open the go nment’s spending tap still further. Certainly, it’s possible to see a temporary revival in the medium term if handouts increase. But that won’t be sustainable. At some point, the ballooning overall deficit is really going to bite.

但资金正在迅速耗尽。包括省级政府的支出在内,赤字接近GDP的8%。公共支出将使投资对私营部门更具吸引力的说法并没有得到证实。根本没有足够的钱来流动——政府拿走了大部分的金融储蓄,私人投资只能满足于微薄的余款。

印度政府无可指责。印度经济过去也曾放缓——最近一次是在大宗商品热潮和“缩减恐慌”期间——但每次出现这种情况,印度都不得不应对某种外源性灾难。没有发生糟糕的雨季,没有突然的商品价格通胀,也没有国际收支危机。世界经济并没有真正的繁荣,但是像越南和孟加拉国这样的出口型经济体似乎蓬勃发展。越南上一季度的经济增长率为7.3%,孟加拉国可能会连续两年实现8%的增长。

印度国内管理不善,国外保护主义愈演愈烈,已使其退出快速增长的新兴经济体之列。在印度,担心消费者需求下滑并将经济放缓归咎于此是一种普遍的看法。一些人认为,补救措施是进一步开放政府的支出渠道。当然,如果救济增加,中期可能会看到暂时的复苏。但这是不可持续的。在某种程度上,不断膨胀的整体赤字确实会产生影响。

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The whole point, surely, is that develo countries shouldn’t be dependent only upon domestic demand. Young, labor-surplus nations must go out and tap world markets, not limit themselves to whatever can be drummed up at home. No stronger lesson can be drawn from recent economic history.

Instead, India has gotten into a series of entirely avoidable trade spats with countries like the U.S., gone cold on a possible free-trade deal with the European Union and most recently refused to sign the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership with countries from the Pacific Rim and Southeast Asia.

The go nment wants to coddle Indian industry instead of giving it the means to compete. It need not raise tariffs and run away from free trade; it should instead allow entrepreneurs and companies greater flebility in whom they hire, make it easier to find land for industry, and end a self-defeating crusade ag inst tax evasion that has scared investors into hiding.

It’s still possible to hope that something may change in New Delhi. Modi has already reinvented himself once, from a business-friendly chief minister to a welfarist prime minister. He could be capable of a third act, in which he re-invigorates Indian industry and manufacturing through drastic structural reform. But don’t hold your breath waiting.

当然,发展家不应该仅仅依赖国内需求。年轻的、劳动力过剩的国家必须走出去,开发世界市场,而不是把自己限制在国内。从最近的经济史中就可以看到这个最大的教训。

相反,印度已经陷入了一系列完全可以避免的与美国等国的贸易争端他最近拒绝与环太平洋和东南亚国家签署《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》。

政府希望宠溺印度工业,而非让它在竞争中得到磨炼。它不需要提高关税,也不需要避开自由贸易;相反,它应该给予企业家和企业更大的灵活性,让他们能够更容易地找到工业用地,并结束令投资者闻风丧胆的反逃税运动。

新德里仍有可能会有所改变。莫迪已经改头换面了一次,从一个亲商的首席部长变成了一个福利主义者。他可能会展开第三次行动,通过激烈的结构性改革,重振印度工业和制造业。但不要寄予太大的希望

《印度经济时报》网站读者评论:

译文来源:三泰虎    http://www.santaihu.com/48902.html       译者:Joyceliu

外文链接:https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/policy/view-indias-economy-needs-pm-modi-to-reinvent-himself-again/articleshow/72327321.cms

Raj Tillan

he need not reinvent just pack 50 self styled experts (IAS) home and sack superannuated regulators to remove dead wood ,economy will gain momentum

他也无需彻底改造,只要把50名自封的专家(IAS)请回家,解雇退休的机构,清除无用的人,经济就会获得动力。

 

Ken Nihon

Not Modi you moron you the pseduos and anti-India anti-Hindu fellows - need to reinvent. You guys are living in the past loot and run culture and fudge data culture of the Sonia raj.

不是莫迪,你们这些白痴,你们这些伪党和反印度的人,才需要彻底改造。你们这些家伙还生活在过去索尼娅·拉杰时代的掠夺和管理文化和捏造数据文化的时代。

 

Sridhar Reddy

As usual nonsense from Mihir Sharma....according to him India should bow down to US, EU and (RECP).

和往常一样,夏尔马又在胡言乱语了……在他看来,印度应该向美国、欧盟和低头。

 

Tochii60

Modi doesn''t seem to be in control as his vision doesn''t match his actions. Either he is for co ption or ag inst it-he must be consistent and not be buying MLA''s or dealing with corrupt po iticians

莫迪似乎无法控制局面,因为他的愿景与他的行动不一致。他要么支持,要么反对——他必须始终如一,不买解放军的帐,不与的政客打交道。

 

Rmohana Kodali

Many state Gts are laggards. Central Gt is taking all steps to facilitate growth. Increased infrastructure spending.Taking all corrective steps like trimming public sector banks, tackling bankrupt corporations, peaceful atmosphere in the country without disruptions.Growth will be natural corollary

许多邦政府都是落后者。中央政府正在采取一切措施促进经济增长。增加基础设施支出。采取一切纠正办法,如整顿公共部门的银行,处理破产公司,不受干扰地营造和平的国内气氛。增长将是自然的必然结果。

 

Sridhar Reddy

State gts are encouraging free bees. Every thing in free free free......as a result you cannot find labour to work in agri fields or to construct buildings. Every one gets enough to eat, watch tv and internet on mobile. Who is interested in working now?

邦政府鼓励免费赠品的做法。所有的一切都是免费的,你在农田里找不到工作或建造房屋的劳动力。每个人都有足够的食物,看着电视、抱着手机上着网。现在谁会对工作感兴趣?

 

Rmohana Kodali

Exactly. They are buying ves by giving unlimited, irrational freebies.

完全正确。他们通过无限量、不合理的免费赠品来收买。

 

Ramesh Nandurkar

we are reinventing Indian and Indians our nationalism

我们正在重塑印度人和印度人的民族主义。

 

Harekrishnar

PLUS Modiji has lost the maharashtra state because the BJP were not willing to share the CM post with the shiv sena -

另外,莫迪已经失去了马哈拉施特拉邦,因为人民党不愿与湿婆神军平分部长的职位。

 

Anand V

Not a single illegal Bangladeshi had been sent back in the last six years.........In Spite of increasing threat from and Pakistan their is hardly any hike in defence budget in real term and what minor increase has been shown will not even meet the increased sry and pension requirement........Make in India did not make up in any measurable terms............Investment and movement towards clean energy like solar industries had been wreck by various aimless ministries.....

在过去的六年里,没有一个非法的孟加拉人被遣返,尽管来自和巴基斯坦的威胁越来越大,但他们的实际国防预算几乎没有任何增长,就算有微小的增长,也无法满足加薪和养老金的要求...“印度制造”没有任何进展……针对太阳能这样的清洁能源的投资和运动已经被各个无目标的部门破坏了.....

 

Kishore Shivani

HOW WILL ECONOMY IMPROVE IN OUR COUNTRY 80% PEOPLE LIVE ON FREEBIES AND SUBSIDIES DOLES AND AND ALMS 10 % PEOPLE.

我们国家的经济将如何改善? 80%的人靠免费赠品和补贴生活,10%的人靠施舍生活。

 

Mr.CoolGuy Sengupta

Need better moral education from school and home.

印度需要学校和家庭传播更好的道德教育。

 

Ashok Kumar R Patel Kumar

Some structural changes in taxation is required as under:1. Removal of Electricity duty and bringing ricity under GST @ 5%.2. Bringing down stamp duty on real estate to 1%.3. Bringing Natural Gas under GST with 5% rate for power PNG and fertilizers and12% on others.4. Removing custom duty on LNG.5. Bringing Petroleum Products under GST @5% and reducing excised duty and VAT correspondingly. 6. Further Reducing excise duty on diesel for trucks, buses railways and industries by Rs. 3 to 4 per litre.7. Bringing down GST on cement to 18%.8. Bringing down GST on industrial services and telecommunications to 12%.9. Bringing GST on CNG/hybrid cars to 12%, Petrol cars to 18% and Diesel cars to 28% without any cess.

税收方面需要进行一些结构性改革,具体如下:1. 取消电费,将电纳入5%的消费税;2 .降低房地产印花税至1%;3 . 将天然气纳入消费税;4. 取消液化天然气的关税;5. 将石油产品纳入5%的消费税,并相应减少开征的关税和增值税;6. 进一步降低卡车、公共汽车、铁路和工业用柴油的消费税,每升降低3至4卢比;7. 将水泥的GST降低到18%;8. 将工业服务和电信的消费税降至12%;9. 在没有任何措施的情况下,把天然气/混合动力汽车的消费税提高到12%,把汽油汽车的消费税提高到18%,把柴油汽车的消费税提高到28%。

 

Nachiket Katha

PM Modi can''t re-invent himself. Gujrat was smaill state (5 per cent of India economy) where few crony capitalists could grow using leverage. Most of them are bankrupt today despite Modi becoming PM. And PM is only intrested in welfare of his cronies. Otherwise this country would have food security given overflowing FCI godowns. He brought farmer insurance where his crony insurance companies collected 40000 premimum but did not pay more than 12000 as cm (nowhere in the world cm/premium ratio is so low), Ayurshman Bharat will only benefit private companies (provided they are paid the dues by this bankrupt go nment). India would get in middle income trap if Modi gets one more term.

莫迪总理无法改造自己。古吉拉特是一个小邦(占印度经济的5%),很少有裙带资本家能够利用杠杆实现增长。尽管莫迪当选了总理,但他们中的大多数今天还是破产了。而总理只对他的亲信的福利感兴趣。否则,这个国家的粮食安全就会受到泛滥的FCI仓库的威胁。他带来了农民保险,他的裙带保险公司收取了40000 保费,索赔支出却不足12000(全世界上没有哪个地方的索赔/保费比例会这么低)。如果莫迪再连任一届,印度将陷入中等收入陷阱。

 

Yash Pal

Correct your last sentence. India would FALL into LOW income trap......

纠正最后一句。印度会陷入低收入陷阱。

 

Yeshwant Pande

Whose idea is this to reinvent? This amounts to inviting nth disaster. Person and Go nment those who know nothing about economics will do what?

这是谁的主意?这等于招徕第n次灾难。个人和政府那些对经济学一无所知的人会怎么做?

 

Sachin N

Many people think that economy will bounce if po itical leaders are changed. I have spent a life on inward invesstment projects which took me on visits to various industrial parks across Asia. I have always been telling Indian companies to have an export focus. Make products that is acceptable to people in foreign markets. How can a po itician understand Design features, alternate payment mechanisms, technical superiority? I have asked many Indian steel makers, tiles makers, machinery makers, intermediate and rical goods makers and so many manufacturers why they are not tweaking products as per requirement of export nations. When TVS launches a 3 W in Africa, Mitubishi launches its newest SUV. Indians have not idea of export markets. It is just an Indian thing to look inwards only. And most people who have not seen the world will always have a standard response- change the po itician. There is no way these people can be made to understand how foreign trade works.

许多人认为,如果领导人换届,经济将会反弹。我一直致力于国内投资项目,这让我有机会参观了亚洲各地的工业园区。我一直告诉印度公司要把重点放在出口上。生产在国外市场上为人们所接受的产品。家怎么会懂得设计特性、替代支付机制、技术优势?我问过许多印度钢铁制造商、瓷砖制造商、机械制造商、中间产品和电子产品制造商等,为什么他们不根据出口国的要求调整产品。印度人没有出口市场的概念。只关注内部是印度特有的事情。大多数没见过世面的人都有一个标准的回答——换一个家。这些人是不可能理解外贸是如何运作的。

 

Ajay Gupta

Mihir , do you even believe in the junk you write or you just looking at some money per article

Mihir ,你相信你自己写的那些垃圾文章吗?

 

Ajay Gupta

what an observation by Mihir . wow! great . Modi should read this and all problems of India will be solved . what an article . No one other than Mihir Shr could find the solution for all Indian problems

Mihir的观察真棒。哇!太好了。莫迪应该读读这篇文章,印度的所有问题都会得到解决。真是好文章。除了Mihir Shr,没有人能找到解决所有印度问题的办法。

 

Ram

Nobody knows exact reason of slowdown. Simply all economists are beating the bush by blaming Modi go nment. The problems need to be analised in detail rather blaming the Go nment. What exactly ill Indian economy is to be found. Is it lack of consumption due to less purchasing power of people, is it liquidity. There are lot of greedy people who want to loot like frauds on banks defaults on their loans etc., the Go nment should use iron handed measures to regulate those institutions/ companies who divert the loan funds or commit frauds.

没有人知道经济放缓的确切原因。很简单,所有的经济学家都在指责莫迪政府。这些问题需要详细分析,而不是简单归咎于政府。印度经济到底有多糟糕,我们拭目以待。是由于人们的购买力下降而导致的消费不足,还是流动性不足?有很多贪心的人想要趁火打劫,比如银行贷款违约等,政府应该采取铁腕措施来那些挪用贷款资金或进行欺诈的机构/公司。

 

Biju

PM modi can start mega plans,it''s time to make accountable of each effort.

莫迪总理可以启动大型计划,现在是时候对每项努力负责了。

 

Vikram

Enough of Modi and BJP please.

莫迪和人民党的事看得够多的了。

 

Yash Pal

The best is yet to come.

好事还在后头。

 

Desmond Mascarenhas

World over ideologistic Go nments have a poor track record of managing their economy. So nothing to be surprised about a low economic growth which was expected from the ideologistic Go nment in India.

在世界范围内,意识形态政府在管理经济方面都表现不佳。所以,印度意识形态政府的低经济增长就不足为奇了。

 

Shaleen Nath Tripathi

Analyst lack understanding of the real GDP numbers... GDP at constant prices was 34139.97 inr billion in September quarter 2018 which increased to 35851.75 inr billion September quarter 2019, which increase 5% compared to last year... Therefore, if growth was 8% same quarter last year, this years growth rate should be 13% (real gdp growth yoy...

分析师对真实的GDP数据缺乏了解…按不变价格计算,2018年9月当季国内生产总值为34139.97亿卢比,2019年9月当季国内生产总值为358517.5亿卢比,同比增长5%。因此,如果去年同一季度的增长率是8%,那么今年的增长率应该是13%(实际GDP同比增长…

 

Shaleen Nath Tripathi

Economists use mathematics to verify their ideas... Because it never lies... 34139.97/100 equals 341.39 equals 1% and money GDP at constant prices increased 35851.75 - (from) 34139.97 equals 1711.78then 8% would be 2731.21then 1711.78/341.39 ie 5%8+5=13% maths may not be , but the economy has increased 1711.78 that is 5% higher than same quarter last year which would only add to 8% because growth has increase yoy...** figures in inr billion...

经济学家用数据来验证他们的观点。因为数据从不说谎……34139.97/100 = 341.39 = 1%,资金按不变价格计算的国内生产总值增长35851.75 - 1711.78(34139.97)= 8%,将是2731.21,然后1711.78/341.39=5%,8 + 5 = 13%,数学可能不正确的,但经济增长了1711.78,比去年同期高出5%,同比增长8%……单位十亿卢比……

 

Shaleen Nath Tripathi

The point is that money GDP at constant prices has gone up compared to GDP at constant prices same quarter yoy... which means growth has increased compared to same quarter last year... when the economy grew, say 8% at a healthy pace... we are producing more than the last year... This years growth would higher than 8% if we use the same base year as for calculating growth rate previous year same quarter because we have produced more than last year ...

关键是,按年度计,同季度同价格下的货币GDP上升了。这意味着与去年同期相比,增长有所增加。当经济增长时,比如说8%以健康的速度。。。我们生产的比去年还多。。。如果我们使用与上一年同一季度相同的基准年来计算增长率,今年的增长率将高于8%,因为我们的产量超过了去年。。。

 

Shaleen Nath Tripathi

INDIA economy has trebled in the last 8 years... The statisticians are changing base year every year to calculate real GDP growth rate, but if we use 2011-12 as the base year for calculating real GDP growth rate the INDIA economy has increased 157% in the last 8 yrs with an annualised growth rate of (157/8) equals 19% every yr...

印度经济在过去8年里增长了两倍。。。统计人员每年都在改变基准年来计算实际GDP增长率,但如果我们用2011-12年作为计算实际GDP增长率的基准年,印度经济在过去8年中增长了157%,年化增长率(157/8)等于19%。

 

Shaleen Nath Tripathi

please use the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MOSPI) data for better analysis..

请使用统计和规划执行部的数据来进行更好的分析。

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