View India’s economy needs PM Modi to reinvent himself — again


It’s now offi al: The Indian economy is suffering through a major slowdown, and one that shows no immediate sign of easing. The only surprise is that the estimate for growth in gross domestic product last quarter isn’t even lower than the announced 4.5%.

When the Narendra Modi-led go nment presented its first budget after being re-ed, it expected growth in 2019-20 to be around 7%. A few months later, the Reserve Bank of India slashed that to 6.1%. It is hard, now, to see how even that rate — relatively slow by India’s past standards — will be achieved.

Since early in his first term, Modi has largely abandoned his campaign promise to get go nment out of business. Instead, he’s relied on the public sector to build a welfare state and prop up growth. In the heady years, as falling oil prices flattered Indian growth and fattened the treasury, it looked like his strategy was working.




But the money is rapidly running out. Including spending by provincial administrations, the deficit is approaching 8% of GDP. Cms that public spending would make investment more attractive for the private sector have not been borne out. There simply isn’t enough money to go around — with the go nment taking the lion’s share of financial savings, private investment has to be content with the meager leavings.

India’s go nment has nobody else to blame. The economy has slowed in the past — most recently, during the commodity boom and the “taper tantrum” — but on each such occasion there was some sort of exogenous cmity it had to deal with. There hasn’t been a bad monsoon, or sudden commodity price inflation, or a bnce-of-payments crisis. The world economy isn’t exactly booming, yet export-oriented economies like Vietnam and Bangladesh seem to be doing fine. Vietnam grew at 7.3% in the last quarter, and Bangladesh may see two successive years of 8% growth.

Mismanagement at home and increasing prectionism abroad have ensured that India has dropped out of that group of fast-growing emerging economies. It’s fashionable in India to worry about slum consumer demand and blame it for the slowdown. The remedy, some argue, is to open the go nment’s spending tap still further. Certainly, it’s possible to see a temporary revival in the medium term if handouts increase. But that won’t be sustainable. At some point, the ballooning overall deficit is really going to bite.





The whole point, surely, is that develo countries shouldn’t be dependent only upon domestic demand. Young, labor-surplus nations must go out and tap world markets, not limit themselves to whatever can be drummed up at home. No stronger lesson can be drawn from recent economic history.

Instead, India has gotten into a series of entirely avoidable trade spats with countries like the U.S., gone cold on a possible free-trade deal with the European Union and most recently refused to sign the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership with countries from the Pacific Rim and Southeast Asia.

The go nment wants to coddle Indian industry instead of giving it the means to compete. It need not raise tariffs and run away from free trade; it should instead allow entrepreneurs and companies greater flebility in whom they hire, make it easier to find land for industry, and end a self-defeating crusade ag inst tax evasion that has scared investors into hiding.

It’s still possible to hope that something may change in New Delhi. Modi has already reinvented himself once, from a business-friendly chief minister to a welfarist prime minister. He could be capable of a third act, in which he re-invigorates Indian industry and manufacturing through drastic structural reform. But don’t hold your breath waiting.






译文来源:三泰虎    http://www.santaihu.com/48902.html       译者:Joyceliu


Raj Tillan

he need not reinvent just pack 50 self styled experts (IAS) home and sack superannuated regulators to remove dead wood ,economy will gain momentum



Ken Nihon

Not Modi you moron you the pseduos and anti-India anti-Hindu fellows - need to reinvent. You guys are living in the past loot and run culture and fudge data culture of the Sonia raj.



Sridhar Reddy

As usual nonsense from Mihir Sharma....according to him India should bow down to US, EU and (RECP).




Modi doesn''t seem to be in control as his vision doesn''t match his actions. Either he is for co ption or ag inst it-he must be consistent and not be buying MLA''s or dealing with corrupt po iticians



Rmohana Kodali

Many state Gts are laggards. Central Gt is taking all steps to facilitate growth. Increased infrastructure spending.Taking all corrective steps like trimming public sector banks, tackling bankrupt corporations, peaceful atmosphere in the country without disruptions.Growth will be natural corollary



Sridhar Reddy

State gts are encouraging free bees. Every thing in free free free......as a result you cannot find labour to work in agri fields or to construct buildings. Every one gets enough to eat, watch tv and internet on mobile. Who is interested in working now?



Rmohana Kodali

Exactly. They are buying ves by giving unlimited, irrational freebies.



Ramesh Nandurkar

we are reinventing Indian and Indians our nationalism




PLUS Modiji has lost the maharashtra state because the BJP were not willing to share the CM post with the shiv sena -



Anand V

Not a single illegal Bangladeshi had been sent back in the last six years.........In Spite of increasing threat from and Pakistan their is hardly any hike in defence budget in real term and what minor increase has been shown will not even meet the increased sry and pension requirement........Make in India did not make up in any measurable terms............Investment and movement towards clean energy like solar industries had been wreck by various aimless ministries.....



Kishore Shivani


我们国家的经济将如何改善? 80%的人靠免费赠品和补贴生活,10%的人靠施舍生活。


Mr.CoolGuy Sengupta

Need better moral education from school and home.



Ashok Kumar R Patel Kumar

Some structural changes in taxation is required as under:1. Removal of Electricity duty and bringing ricity under GST @ 5%.2. Bringing down stamp duty on real estate to 1%.3. Bringing Natural Gas under GST with 5% rate for power PNG and fertilizers and12% on others.4. Removing custom duty on LNG.5. Bringing Petroleum Products under GST @5% and reducing excised duty and VAT correspondingly. 6. Further Reducing excise duty on diesel for trucks, buses railways and industries by Rs. 3 to 4 per litre.7. Bringing down GST on cement to 18%.8. Bringing down GST on industrial services and telecommunications to 12%.9. Bringing GST on CNG/hybrid cars to 12%, Petrol cars to 18% and Diesel cars to 28% without any cess.

税收方面需要进行一些结构性改革,具体如下:1. 取消电费,将电纳入5%的消费税;2 .降低房地产印花税至1%;3 . 将天然气纳入消费税;4. 取消液化天然气的关税;5. 将石油产品纳入5%的消费税,并相应减少开征的关税和增值税;6. 进一步降低卡车、公共汽车、铁路和工业用柴油的消费税,每升降低3至4卢比;7. 将水泥的GST降低到18%;8. 将工业服务和电信的消费税降至12%;9. 在没有任何措施的情况下,把天然气/混合动力汽车的消费税提高到12%,把汽油汽车的消费税提高到18%,把柴油汽车的消费税提高到28%。


Nachiket Katha

PM Modi can''t re-invent himself. Gujrat was smaill state (5 per cent of India economy) where few crony capitalists could grow using leverage. Most of them are bankrupt today despite Modi becoming PM. And PM is only intrested in welfare of his cronies. Otherwise this country would have food security given overflowing FCI godowns. He brought farmer insurance where his crony insurance companies collected 40000 premimum but did not pay more than 12000 as cm (nowhere in the world cm/premium ratio is so low), Ayurshman Bharat will only benefit private companies (provided they are paid the dues by this bankrupt go nment). India would get in middle income trap if Modi gets one more term.

莫迪总理无法改造自己。古吉拉特是一个小邦(占印度经济的5%),很少有裙带资本家能够利用杠杆实现增长。尽管莫迪当选了总理,但他们中的大多数今天还是破产了。而总理只对他的亲信的福利感兴趣。否则,这个国家的粮食安全就会受到泛滥的FCI仓库的威胁。他带来了农民保险,他的裙带保险公司收取了40000 保费,索赔支出却不足12000(全世界上没有哪个地方的索赔/保费比例会这么低)。如果莫迪再连任一届,印度将陷入中等收入陷阱。


Yash Pal

Correct your last sentence. India would FALL into LOW income trap......



Yeshwant Pande

Whose idea is this to reinvent? This amounts to inviting nth disaster. Person and Go nment those who know nothing about economics will do what?



Sachin N

Many people think that economy will bounce if po itical leaders are changed. I have spent a life on inward invesstment projects which took me on visits to various industrial parks across Asia. I have always been telling Indian companies to have an export focus. Make products that is acceptable to people in foreign markets. How can a po itician understand Design features, alternate payment mechanisms, technical superiority? I have asked many Indian steel makers, tiles makers, machinery makers, intermediate and rical goods makers and so many manufacturers why they are not tweaking products as per requirement of export nations. When TVS launches a 3 W in Africa, Mitubishi launches its newest SUV. Indians have not idea of export markets. It is just an Indian thing to look inwards only. And most people who have not seen the world will always have a standard response- change the po itician. There is no way these people can be made to understand how foreign trade works.



Ajay Gupta

Mihir , do you even believe in the junk you write or you just looking at some money per article

Mihir ,你相信你自己写的那些垃圾文章吗?


Ajay Gupta

what an observation by Mihir . wow! great . Modi should read this and all problems of India will be solved . what an article . No one other than Mihir Shr could find the solution for all Indian problems

Mihir的观察真棒。哇!太好了。莫迪应该读读这篇文章,印度的所有问题都会得到解决。真是好文章。除了Mihir Shr,没有人能找到解决所有印度问题的办法。



Nobody knows exact reason of slowdown. Simply all economists are beating the bush by blaming Modi go nment. The problems need to be analised in detail rather blaming the Go nment. What exactly ill Indian economy is to be found. Is it lack of consumption due to less purchasing power of people, is it liquidity. There are lot of greedy people who want to loot like frauds on banks defaults on their loans etc., the Go nment should use iron handed measures to regulate those institutions/ companies who divert the loan funds or commit frauds.




PM modi can start mega plans,it''s time to make accountable of each effort.




Enough of Modi and BJP please.



Yash Pal

The best is yet to come.



Desmond Mascarenhas

World over ideologistic Go nments have a poor track record of managing their economy. So nothing to be surprised about a low economic growth which was expected from the ideologistic Go nment in India.



Shaleen Nath Tripathi

Analyst lack understanding of the real GDP numbers... GDP at constant prices was 34139.97 inr billion in September quarter 2018 which increased to 35851.75 inr billion September quarter 2019, which increase 5% compared to last year... Therefore, if growth was 8% same quarter last year, this years growth rate should be 13% (real gdp growth yoy...



Shaleen Nath Tripathi

Economists use mathematics to verify their ideas... Because it never lies... 34139.97/100 equals 341.39 equals 1% and money GDP at constant prices increased 35851.75 - (from) 34139.97 equals 1711.78then 8% would be 2731.21then 1711.78/341.39 ie 5%8+5=13% maths may not be , but the economy has increased 1711.78 that is 5% higher than same quarter last year which would only add to 8% because growth has increase yoy...** figures in inr billion...

经济学家用数据来验证他们的观点。因为数据从不说谎……34139.97/100 = 341.39 = 1%,资金按不变价格计算的国内生产总值增长35851.75 - 1711.78(34139.97)= 8%,将是2731.21,然后1711.78/341.39=5%,8 + 5 = 13%,数学可能不正确的,但经济增长了1711.78,比去年同期高出5%,同比增长8%……单位十亿卢比……


Shaleen Nath Tripathi

The point is that money GDP at constant prices has gone up compared to GDP at constant prices same quarter yoy... which means growth has increased compared to same quarter last year... when the economy grew, say 8% at a healthy pace... we are producing more than the last year... This years growth would higher than 8% if we use the same base year as for calculating growth rate previous year same quarter because we have produced more than last year ...



Shaleen Nath Tripathi

INDIA economy has trebled in the last 8 years... The statisticians are changing base year every year to calculate real GDP growth rate, but if we use 2011-12 as the base year for calculating real GDP growth rate the INDIA economy has increased 157% in the last 8 yrs with an annualised growth rate of (157/8) equals 19% every yr...



Shaleen Nath Tripathi

please use the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MOSPI) data for better analysis..


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