Why Vietnam Will Never Join a U.S. Coalition Against China

为什么越南永远不会加入美国反华联盟

Listen in on many of the foreign policy discussions about Vietnam that take place at think tanks and government seminars in Washington, D.C., and you'll hear this sense of optimism that "Hanoi is on our side." They see Vietnam's historical suspicions of China and the country's ongoing territorial disputes in the South China Sea as key indicators that Hanoi will eventually join a U.S.-led coalition to counter China.

Those presumptions, however, are wrong, according to Khang Vu, a leading Vietnamese political scientist and visiting scholar at Boston College. Khang joins Eric to explain why the U.S. is overestimating its military and trade leverage with Vietnam.

若你旁听华盛顿特区的智库和政府研讨会上，诸多关于越南的外交政策讨论，会听到一种乐观论调：“河内站在我们这边” 。他们将越南对中国的历史疑虑，以及该国在南海持续存在的领土争端，视为河内最终会加入美国牵头的反华联盟的关键信号。

不过，越南顶尖政治学家、波士顿学院访问学者康武认为，这些推测有误。美国高估了自身对越南的军事与贸易影响力 。

以下是各国网友的评论：

WanderingSword
Vietnamese here, with relatives in both the north and south Vietnam. Vietnam cannot and will not depend on the US. Vietnam's economy is completely tied to China. Without the US, Vietnam can still survive. Without China, Vietnam's economy will collapse. Yes, there is some friction between Vietnam and China, it has been like this for millennium, and the West "think tanks" and talking heads always like to highlight this friction as a case-argument as to why Vietnam will abandon China and jump into America's laps. But, this is purely a Western wishful and somewhat deluded thinking, just like their wishful thinking that Russia and China will abandon each other. The fact of the matter is, 1) Vietnam still remembers Western colonialism, and 2) China is Vietnam's biggest and most important trading partner. These 2 factors combined will trump everything the West/America has to offer to Vietnam, by a wide margin. The West's "divide and conquer" scheme is well understood by every nation at this point.

我是越南人，在越南南北都有亲戚。越南不可能、也不会依赖美国。越南经济和中国完全深度绑定。没了美国，越南勉强能撑；但没了中国，越南经济会直接垮掉。没错，越中之间确实存在一些摩擦，都持续上千年了。可西方那些“智库”和爱高谈阔论的人，总爱拿这点摩擦大做文章，说越南会抛弃中国、一头扎进美国怀抱。但这纯粹是西方一厢情愿、甚至有点自欺欺人的想法，就跟他们幻想俄罗斯和中国会互相抛弃一样荒唐。事实是：第一，越南没忘记西方殖民的历史；第二，中国是越南最大、也是最重要的贸易伙伴 。这两点加起来，能把西方/美国给越南画的任何“饼”都远远比下去。到如今，每个国家都看透了西方“分而治之”那套把戏。

AlCapone71
Yeah ok, while China keep attacking your fishermen you keep saying Vietnam is attached to China

行吧，那中国一直“攻击”你们渔民的时候，你咋还说越南和中国绑一块呢

haniahannslew4108
Also... in fact Vietnam still culturally depends on China to survive and give it an identity. Without the use of Chinese culture, knowledge, and economic, political model and governance experience, vietnam cannot survive to this day and into the future. So to say it explicitly, vietnam is joined to China at the hip forever.

事实上，越南在文化层面，至今仍依赖中国才能存续、才能有自身认同。要是没借鉴中国的文化、知识，还有经济模式、政治模式、治理经验，越南根本撑不到现在，更别谈未来。说白了，越南和中国就是永远紧密相连、休戚与共的。

chriswong9158
@AlCapone71 Yes, for only "When two neighboring countries fight each other, just know the USA visited one." - Nelson Mandela, south africa. and he should know.

对啊，就像南非的纳尔逊·曼德拉说过：“只要看到两个邻国起冲突，就知道准是美国找其中一方挑事了。” 他这话很有道理

highoctane2012
You don't sound like Vietnamese. Bung lụa bằng vài câu tiếng việt xem có tin cậy không? :

你说话可不太像越南人哦。你倒是说几句越南语，看看能不能让人信你是越南人呀？

lokaskarak3442
@AlCapone71 small matters compared with ra and killing during the Vietnam US war

中国所谓“攻击”渔民的事，与越战期间美国强奸、屠杀越南人的暴行比起来，根本不值一提

oceanwave4502
The US and the West in general will come and go. But China will stay forever neighbor. Vietnam has to be pragmatic

美国也好，西方也罢，都是来了又走的过客。但中国是永远在身边的邻居。越南得务实点

ainle
that is an easy answer, the US killed about 5 millions vietnamese during that conflict.

答案很简单：越战期间，美国害死了大概500万越南人

DumpTheDollar
The Vietnamese still remember the American bombing and the agent orange used on them. Consequence of the agent orange effects still lingers on today on a section of the current population as a reminder of the cruelty of the Americans

越南人至今没忘美国的轰炸，没忘美军投放的橙剂。橙剂的恶果到现在还影响着一部分越南人，时刻提醒大家美国人有多残忍

bushidofreakz
But just a little pressure from that Orange President, Vietnam folded so quickly

可之前特朗普稍微一施压，越南不就立马服软了嘛

NgocBichNguyen-r2r
@bushidofreakz suy nghĩ thật ngây thơ và trẻ con. Đây chỉ đơn giản là bạn cố đạt được nhiều nhất có thể trong vụ làm ăn này và tiếp tục chuyển sang vụ làm ăn tiếp theo.

你这想法真幼稚、天真。越南对美妥协，不过是在这单“生意”里尽量多捞好处，然后接着去做下一笔“生意”罢了

marcelo55869
@bushidofreakz vietnam is pragmatic. It knows how to stand up for itself against both US and China. But it knows how to live side by side with them as well

越南很务实。它知道怎么在中美面前维护自身权益，也懂怎么和两国和平共处

haniahannslew4108
vietnamese have forgotten the My Lai and agent orange thing and show love and loyalty to armuryka. In the mean time they have shown a lot of hostility towards China for centuries but then get a lot of benefits from China such as culture, technology, industry, skills, economic and political models, and governance experience. I never put my trust in vietnam and the people from there.

部分越南人怕是忘了美莱村惨案、忘了橙剂的伤害，还对美国表现出喜爱和忠诚。可几百年来，他们一直对中国有敌意，却又从中国获取了文化、技术、工业、技能、经济模式、政治模式、治理经验这些好处。我从来就没信任过越南，也不信任那里的人

polyresoucesgp2754
Let me be honest with those countries that think supporting the U.S. against China will bring them the kind of prosperity Japan or South Korea once had: the U.S. has already raised two dogs in Asia—Japan and South Korea—and it can no longer afford to raise a third.

When the U.S. was supporting Japan and South Korea, it was the world’s largest industrial power, with an economy that made up half of global GDP. But now? The U.S. has started bleeding Japan and South Korea dry—and in desperate times, it may even try to slaughter them for meat.

To China’s neighboring countries: you are free to develop relations with both China and the U.S., to trade, and even to build closer ties. But it is unwise to take sides and join in hostile actions against either one—especially against China. Doing so brings no real benefit to you.

我给那些觉得“支持美国反华能复制日韩曾经繁荣”的国家泼盆冷水：美国已经在亚洲“养”了日韩两条 “狗”，没余力再养第三条了。

当年美国扶持日韩时，自己是全球最大工业强国，经济占全球GDP一半。可现在呢？美国已经开始疯狂榨取日韩的利益 —— 真到走投无路时，甚至可能把它们“宰了吃肉”

给中国周边国家提个醒：你们完全可以自由发展与中美两国的关系、开展贸易，甚至深化合作。但选边站、参与针对任何一方（尤其针对中国）的敌意行动，都是极不明智的。这么做，你们捞不到任何实际好处。

Mikhail-er8qr
All you have to do is spend time in Vietnam and talk to real Vietnamese and you will know very quickly that they don't mind trading with the US, but that they also understand that if the US were to beat Chine they would be next. They want independence so they won't just do everything China wants but they know the US could turn on them on a dime. I mean every other US "ally" is finding this out now very quickly

你只要在越南待一阵、和真正的越南人聊聊，很快就会明白：他们不抵触和美国做生意，但也清楚 —— 要是美国把中国整垮了，下一个就轮到他们。越南想保持独立，所以不会事事都听中国的；但同时也知道，美国随时可能翻脸坑他们。瞧瞧，其他美国“盟友”现在不都很快看透这点了嘛

TheKenzhang
If United States Lose the rivalry with China in Asia， They simply just leave just like a Vietnam war， But Vietnam is still here

要是美国在亚洲和中国的博弈中输了，他们会像当年越战那样，拍拍屁股走人。但越南得一直留在这片土地

ongyewleng4718
Ask America for war reparations and zero tariffs.

找美国要战争赔款，还要零关税

nguyenthanhkhai8961
Nếu không phải là người Việt Nam thì đừng quyết định thay người Việt Nam chúng tôi.Việt Nam không phải là Hoa Kỳ và cũng không phải là Trung Quốc.Việt Nam là Việt Nam

不是越南人，就别替我们越南人做决定。越南既不是美国，也不是中国。越南就是越南

DocPetron
There a indirect quote from a Vietnamese diplomat. "Every Vietnamese leader needs to stand up to China, but every Vietnamese leader needs to work with China. If you can't do both, you cannot lead Vietnam".

有句越南外交官的话是这么说的：“每个越南领导人都得敢对中国表明立场，但同时也得会和中国合作。要是连这两点都做不到，就没资格领导越南。”

chriswong9158
That quote apply to China and Vietnam's 2,000 years relationship history.

这话契合越中两千年的交往史

haniahannslew4108
uhhhh.... in fact the vietnamese diplomat just takes the quote out of the Chinese book. LOL. Vietnam still culturally depends on China to survive and give it an identity. Without the use of Chinese culture, knowledge, and economic, political model and governance experience, vietnam cannot survive to this day and into the future. So to say it explicitly, vietnam is joined to China at the hip

呃，其实越南外交官这话，就是从中国典籍里“搬”来的。哈哈。越南在文化上，至今还是得依赖中国才能存续、才能有自身认同。要是没借鉴中国的文化、知识，还有经济模式、政治模式、治理经验，越南根本撑不到现在，更别谈未来。说白了，越南和中国就是永远紧密相连、拆都拆不开的。

ickMoto5
Vietnam does not need weapons. Who is going to attack them? Are you a warmonger... war contributor?

越南不需要武器。谁会去攻击他们啊？你是战争贩子，是想挑事的人吗？

siberiantiger3917
At best, it would be Ukraine wanting to join NATO all over again. Vietnam can see, with their own eyes, what happened to Ukraine. The Vietnamese aren't stupid.

往最好了说，越南选边站，就是乌克兰想加入北约那套戏码重演。越南人亲眼看着乌克兰的下场呢，他们可不傻

richardchak696
The America is not the entire of the world entity. The Americans political class just has to Wake Up to this. Vietnam can always diversify thier market.

美国不是全世界。美国的政治阶层得认清这点。越南完全可以拓展多元市场

vangpham2514
since when or where did the US comes and Aid any country without its hard core interest. that is world Hegemony

美国什么时候、在哪儿干过“没核心利益还去援助别国”的事啊？他们那是搞“世界霸权”

Linda-qm2xd
This is a very intelligent and educating conversation. Vietnam needs to stand up and seperate from US. US is not stable anymore. Trump breaks deals on a whim. Makes impulsive and erratic decisions. Respect and aTrust is important.

这是场很有见地、能让人学到东西的讨论。越南得清醒，和美国保持距离。美国已经不靠谱了，特朗普想撕毁协议就撕，做决定冲动又任性。“尊重”和“信任”很重要

manolexng68
Thailand is dependant on the US trade for 18 percent of its exports. Also, Thailand borders Myanmar which is a China stronghold. I also doubt very much that the govt would prioritize trade of this magnitude over our whole country's security, the likes of which we envision a scenario not too different from what's happening in the Ukraine. Worst yet, I may be conservative here, given China's military capability. The final two important elements is the generational ties between China and Thailand in cultural, trade, and even blood relationship, given a large population in Thailand are descendants of China. We also must not forget that Thais see and hear about what is going on around the world, and especially in the Ukraine and no one wants our country to be destroyed by an antagonistic relationship with China, especially when we have always had a great relationship with China (still do). Finally, we value our relationship with the US as well so long as it does not lead to unnecessary wars that destroy important elements of our society and when the gains outweighed by the losses.

泰国出口贸易的18%依赖美国。而且，泰国和缅甸接壤，缅甸是中国影响力较大的地区。我很怀疑，政府会为了这点贸易，把国家整体安全抛在脑后 —— 真那样的话，我们面临的局面和乌克兰不会有太大区别。考虑到中国的军事实力，我这说法甚至算保守了。最后两点关键是：中泰在文化、贸易，甚至血缘上都有世代延续的联系（泰国很多人是华裔后代 ）；而且泰国人也看得到、听得到世界上发生的事，尤其乌克兰的状况 —— 没人想因和中国敌对，让自己国家被拖垮，何况我们一直和中国保持着良好关系（现在也一样 ）。当然，只要和美国的关系不会引发战争、不会让社会重要根基被摧毁，且收益大于损失，我们也重视和美国的往来。

mmyneutron9876
Philippines should emulate Vietnam in balancing assertion of sovereign rights and pragmatism with regard to South China Sea dispute with China. Most of all, joining the coalition against China will just make China double down.

菲律宾应该学学越南，在南海争端中平衡“维护主权”和“务实合作”。最重要的是，加入反华联盟只会让中国更强硬回击

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