How America's Debt Spiral Could Spark The Next Crisis

美国的债务螺旋如何引发下一场危机

Independent analyses, ranging from Yale University to the Wharton School to the Congressional Budget Office, have each said that President Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill will add trillions of dollars to the U.S. deficit over the next 10 years. Yet, this year, the U.S. deficit is already exceeding 6 percent of GDP, a level roughly 63 percent higher than the average in the past five decades. And unlike past spikes, the current one isn’t driven by war or economic crisis, leading many to worry.

从耶鲁大学、沃顿商学院到国会预算办公室，各类独立分析均指出，特朗普总统的“大而美法案”将在未来10年使美国赤字增加数万亿美元。然而，今年美国赤字已超过GDP的6%，这一水平比过去50年的平均值高出约63%。与以往赤字激增不同，当前的赤字并非由战争或经济危机引发，这让许多人忧心忡忡。

以下是各国网友的评论：

ericdunbar6230
When you destroy your country to make the 1% incredibly rich.

为了让那1%的人富得流油，把自己国家都毁了。

aldozilli1293
As a British person I'm shocked a President like Trump got in. Then again I was shocked Brext happened. Just shows the masses are ultimately stupid.

作为英国人，我真震惊特朗普这种人能当上总统。不过上次英国脱欧，我也很震惊。只能说大众到头来还是蠢。

marcchatow9516
Right now feels like 2007, just before the Great 2008 Recession hit.

现在感觉就像2007年，2008年大衰退爆发前那阵子。

Jimraynor45
This isn't about the rich. Debt and inflation make all of us poorer. You're just mad at the rich because they still have more than you. Stop that

这事儿跟富人没关系。债务和通胀让我们所有人都变穷。你就是气富人比你钱多。别这样。

MeEntertainmentJo_876
It never works either. Back in the 1400s Hungary was threatened with invasion by the Ottoman Empire and to fight the Ottomans off it raised an army called the "Black Army." But the nobles of Hungary were ticked about the taxes they had to pay for this large, professional fighting force. So when the king died the nobles got the new king to cut taxes and then the army disbanded. A few years later the Ottomans rolled in and conquered Hungary. The nobles of Hungary sacrificed their whole country for a tax break. And of course lost all their money anyway.

这招从来就没用。15世纪时，匈牙利遭奥斯曼帝国入侵威胁，为了击退他们，组建了一支“黑军”。可匈牙利贵族嫌养这支庞大的正规军要交税，心里不爽。国王一死，贵族们就撺掇新国王减税，军队也就散了。几年后，奥斯曼人打过来，把匈牙利给占了。匈牙利贵族为了少交税，把整个国家都赔进去了，最后钱也没保住。

LizardSpork
The biggest lie about the economy: wealth will "trickle down" Second biggest lie: we can out grow our debt with more debt!

经济界最大的谎言：财富会“往下流”。第二大谎言：借更多债就能摆脱债务！

Rdale2222
The saddest part of all of this is that most people dont care at all about this. They dont even focus on this at all in presidential debates anymore

最可悲的是，多数人压根不在乎这事儿。总统辩论里都没人提了。

ronanh13
America is a clown show.

美国就是场小丑戏。

KNRS927
Politicians think that when you create tax breaks for the wealthy, that wealth will “trickle down” when it never does. Human greed prevents that, and it comes in the form of stock buybacks.

政客们觉得给富人减税，财富就会“往下流”，可从来没实现过。人都贪，结果就是股票回购，钱根本流不下来。

StrawB0ss
It's worse. They don't actually think it will "trickle down".

更糟的是，他们其实根本就不信会“往下流”。

JojoJoget
They have no intention of having it trickle down

他们压根就没打算让财富往下流。

small3687
tax the damn rich and corporations already.

赶紧给那些富人还有大公司征税啊。

itsatrap7215
The rich pay like 80% of all taxes collected. Taxes on corporations just mean higher prices for goods and services as they can just pass the extra expenditure to consumers. If you took all the wealth from the top 1% and sold all their assets, it wouldn't cover the US budget for 1 year. Taxng more will never solve the problem when the spending is too insane.

富人交的税占总税收的80%左右。向公司征税，结果就是商品服务涨价，他们会把额外支出转嫁给消费者。就算把最富的1%的财富全拿过来，把他们的资产全卖掉，也不够美国一年的预算。开支太离谱，多征税也没用。

Chr1s-fm6bi
We are witnessing the largest transfer of wealth from poor and middle class to the rich, and from young to old, in history.

我们正看着史上最大规模的财富转移：从穷人和中产阶级到富人，从年轻人到老年人。

Jimraynor45
The transfer is not between people but between the state and the people. Inflation is the transfer of money from citizens to government. Some people in the present may benefit at the expense of future generations, but ultimately, money is lost. Plus, wealth isn't being transferred, but money. Money isn't wealth. It's just paper. Our true wealth is our knowledge, skills, and experience and that, unfortunately, isn't being transferred. We are losing both our true wealth and money.

不是人和人之间的转移，是国家和老百姓之间的。通胀就是把老百姓的钱转移给政府。现在有些人可能占便宜，但坑了后代，最后钱还是没了。而且，转移的不是财富，是钱。钱不是财富，就是张纸。我们真正的财富是知识、技能和经验，可惜这些没被转移。我们既在失去真正的财富，也在失去钱。

jordanimatedstreaming
@Jimraynor45 it is Monetary Inflation, the reason why people don't understand Monetary Inflation is because they only watch the news, and the news only talks about Price Inflation. A few minutes learning about Monetary Inflation Stimulus Asset Bubbles would make everything clear. also, USD is fiat and is not backed by anything but the faith and credit of the United States Treasury, therefore it is not money, it is only currency. To acquire money you would need to exchange your dollars for gold.

这是货币通胀。人们不懂货币通胀，因为他们只看新闻，新闻只说物价通胀。花几分钟了解下货币通胀、刺激政策和资产泡沫，就全明白了。而且，美元是法币，就靠美国财政部的信用撑着，没任何实物当靠山，所以它不是货币，只是通货。要拿到真钱，得用美元换黄金。

timoooo7320
Interest payments as percent of budget is a major indicator. This number is growing, this is simply unsustainable

利息支出占预算的比例是个重要指标。这数一直在涨，根本撑不下去。

CiaoBello21
A major part of the reason why all empires fell was because they were in debt.

所有帝国垮台，一大原因就是欠了债。

ben_sisko
Simply printing money that isn't worth anything to pay off debt, is actually worse than a default.

印一堆不值钱的钞票来还债，其实比违约还糟。

GregBirkin
The wealthiest people need to pay for this, not American citizens.

该让最有钱的人买单，不是美国老百姓。

king_tut.
The wealthy are also Americans.

富人也是美国人啊。

XhectorX1417
Whats crazy is how we've been reporting on this for over a decade, yet neither side of congress cares to do anything about it

疯的是，这事儿我们报了十多年，国会两党却谁都不肯动手解决。

americanexpat8792
Always remember Bush Jr. rationale for his large tax cut to undo Clinton’s surpluses - “We are paying down the debt too fast.” Damn, we were being too fiscally responsible! Can’t do that!

别忘了小布什大规模减税的理由，为了抵消克林顿时期的盈余——“我们还债太快了。”

靠，我们财政也太负责任了！可不能这样！

betweenbrothers6458
Our Government just showed how much it didn’t care by signing that new bill. I don’t understand.

政府签了那个新法案，这就说明他们压根不在乎。我真搞不懂。

jgbreur
Future generations are inheriting debt. Crippling debt. Meanwhile my mom was able to buy a house at 25 with her skill of ty as a secretary.

后代继承的全是债。压垮人的债。而我妈25岁时，就凭当秘书的打字技能，就能买得起房。

Trentacus
Trump continuing to Make China Great Again

特朗普还在接着“让中国伟大”呢。

PoliticalBearNation
Every single Republican will ultimately say they regret posting this big ugly bill a decade from now. Make sure you replace as many as you can in 2026.

十年后，每个共和党人最后都会说后悔推出这个又大又烂的法案。2026年选举时，尽量多换掉些共和党人。

jf03cg
What I hate about Conservatives is they always say "we have a spending problem" - while ignoring that there may be a "revenue problem" as well... And massive tax cuts for the wealthy won't help the revenue problem... You can't cut your way to prosperity.

我讨厌保守派的一点是，他们总说“我们有开支问题”，却不管可能还有“收入问题”，给富人大幅减税对解决收入问题没帮助，靠削减开支走不到繁荣。

edmaster3147
I'm Dutch and our country has a national debt of 43% of the GDP. This with a strong social security, good health care, distribution of wealth. 10 year bonds in the Eurozone are about 2.5% but in the USA 4,5%. If the USA has rising inflation they will get in serious problems quickly, the interest rate already tells a lot.

我是荷兰人，我们国家的国债占GDP的43%。但我们有完善的社保、好的医疗和财富分配。欧元区10年期债券利率约2.5%，美国是4.5%。要是美国通胀上升，很快就会出大问题，利率已经说明了很多。

RogerKeulen
We invest so mutch in USA (Pension funds). Our debt is to small for "bringing the money home". We need more debt, so that our intressed rate doesn't go negative again. And yes, we are insane rich. Just look at our infrastructure.

我们（的养老基金）在美国投了很多钱。我们的债太少，没法“把钱弄回国”。我们需要多借点债，这样利率就不会再变负了。没错，我们富得离谱。看看我们的基础设施就知道。

BTrain-is8ch
I don't think most Europeans realize how little the typical American pays in taxes relative to what they receive in benefits/services.

我觉得多数欧洲人没意识到，普通美国人交的税，比起他们得到的福利/服务来说，其实很少。

887276
If you or me spent more than our income with already more debt than we could repay in a lifetime & went to the bank asking to borrow more money they'd say hell nah and probably laugh once we left saying "can you believe that guy"

要是你我入不敷出，欠的债一辈子还不清，还去银行借钱，银行肯定会拒绝，我们走后他们可能还会笑：“这人太离谱了吧”。

MrLoekanle
America is in decline, as an American all I see is more and more Americans in poverty.

美国在衰落。作为美国人，我看到越来越多的美国人陷入贫困。

soothingrelaxationandmedit68
The US dollar is key globally. If there's instability there, it creates ripple effects everywhere. You need a plan to protect your assets, not just react to fear

美元在全球很关键。要是美元不稳，到处都会有连锁反应。你得有计划保护资产，不能光害怕。

RicePho
BUT , I thought Republican are suppose to not raise the debt!

可我以为共和党不应该增加债务啊！

TruthFinder7839
I love the invisible dog fence analogy. You don’t know where it is till you hit it. That’s our boundary for the pivot point, and the results of going past it is, unpredictable world wide ramifications due to intertwined global financial markets.

我喜欢那个隐形狗围栏的比喻。撞到了才知道在哪儿。那是我们的临界点，一旦越过，由于全球金融市场相互牵连，会引发无法预测的全球影响。

etonlygotonly
I believe if we look reality straight on there is no way to pay down the debt without taxng the 1000 people who have 92% of the wealth in the USA. cuts will just not get it done

我觉得要是正视现实，不向掌握美国92%财富的那1000人征税，就没法还清债务。光靠削减开支办不到。

grahamstefaan
Wouldn't make a dent. Its overspending.

起不了作用。问题是开支过多。

Pyrrhic.
Not to mention Trump is derailing US dollar reserves status, which is the foundation of what enables the US to borrow and create money supply.

更别说特朗普正在破坏美元的储备地位，而这正是美国能借钱和创造货币供应的基础。

Mr.Coffee576
But this is what MAGA voted for.

这就是“让美国再次伟大”支持者投票想要的。

welcometoclownworld69
Most Americans alive today have not lived through a true hyperinflation event. They are in for a rude awakening because that’s what is coming.

现在活着的多数美国人都没经历过真正的恶性通胀。他们会被狠狠惊醒，恶性通胀就要来了。

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