What will happen to Saudi Arabia's economy if EVs become a standard over the next 15 years in Europe, the United States, and China?
For Saudi Arabia its not so much about when EV’s take over as much as when Gwar goes dry. Gwar is their main oil field. It’s the largest oil field ever discovered and was full of light sweet crude. Issue is they’ve been pum away at it for about 70 years now. Back before the Saudi’s nationalized the oil industry there was fairly good data about how much was left. Now it’s the most closely guarded secret the Saudi’s have. If memory serves they’ve been reporting no drop in the amount of oil the field contains for the last 20–30 years or so. But they’ve been pum something like 2,000,000 barrels of oil a day out of the field, every day, for the last 20–30 years. Worse for them is that because of the way they withdraw the oil. They, in effect, flush the oil from the field by pum water into the outskirts of the field to force the oil to rise to the center where they draw it off from the top of the oil pocket (oil floats on the water). They can in effect keep up full production up until the moment the water reached the wells in the center. At that point the wells will stop extracting oil and start pulling out the water that was pumped in. Since their economy is almost completely dependent upon oil, loosing their biggest source over, what will likely be, a couple of year time frame will likely be disastrous. Especially if they have not diversified their economy by then.
If EVs become a standard over the next 15 years in Europe and the United States, it will have a significant impact on Saudi Arabia's economy.
Saudi Arabia is the world's largest oil exporter, and its economy is heavily reliant on oil revenue. If the demand for oil declines, as it is expected to do with the adoption of EVs, Saudi Arabia's economy will suffer.
The government of Saudi Arabia has already taken steps to diversify its economy away from oil, but it will be a challenge to do so quickly enough to offset the decline in oil revenue.
In the short term, the decline in oil revenue could lead to a recession in Saudi Arabia. The government may need to cut spending or raise taxes to balance its budget. This could lead to job losses and a decline in living standards.
In the long term, Saudi Arabia could become a major exporter of solar and wind energy. The country has abundant renewable energy resources, and it is well-positioned to become a leader in the global clean energy market.
However, it will take time for Saudi Arabia to transition to a clean energy economy. In the meantime, the country will need to find ways to reduce its reliance on oil revenue. This will be a challenge, but it is essential for the long-term health of the Saudi economy.
Here are some specific impacts that the adoption of EVs could have on Saudi Arabia's economy:
• The government would lose out on billions of dollars in oil revenue.
• The oil and gas industry would experience job losses.
• The economy would become more reliant on tourism and other non-oil sectors.
• The government would need to invest in renewable energy and other clean technologies.
• Saudi Arabia would become a more attractive destination for foreign investment.
Overall, the adoption of EVs would have a significant impact on Saudi Arabia's economy. It would create some challenges, but it would also create opportunities. The government of Saudi Arabia will need to be proactive in planning for this transition and in taking steps to mitigate the negative impacts.
Will need a lot more electric power generated to create energy needed to recharge all those electric vehicles. Electric power demand will be increased a lot, and remember that EVs are a lot heavier than ICV because those batteries weigh a lot more than the gas in the gas tanks. And also there will be loses involved in conversions, although regenerative breaking will help a lot.
There are so many issues with going totally to EVs. Recharging is not a problem for those that have houses with driveways and garages, but those that have to part on the street cannot recharge so easily. Also will require massive increases in extraction of more rare minerals, which is going to require energy, and these resources are much harder to extract than iron and aluminum since they are not as common.
Saudi Arabia's production costs are fairly low so it should be able to remain in the market for oil products longer than most. Russia on the other hand will struggle. Ships, aircraft and heavy vehicles will probably rely on carbon fuels for decades.
Nothing, because regardless of what the USA and the West do in the next 15 years, the BRICKS countries will still be buying Saudi Oil for a long long long time.
By the way, the US government investigated how long it would take the world to properly stop using fossil fuels, and the answer was over 200 years.
So I don’t think the Saudis have to worry much about nobody wanting their oil for a long time.
Right now, the average age of a vehicle on the road is over 12 years old. Right now, my state has around a one percentage of EVs on the road.
ICE vehicles have a long way to go before they are a minority of vehicles.
There are somewhere around one billion cars on earth. The US makes and sells 15–20 million cars and there are more than one hundred mllion at least on the road. Okay Tesla may get to one million cars in America.
Thus far trucks have been a complete flop as you-tube videos show these trucks cannot pull a boat/trailer 100 miles in perfect weather. There is quite a challenge as larger batteries make the truck weigh over 9000 pounds and now you cannot drive the truck on your residential street plus a commercial drivers license is required, truck driving log, health exam by a doctor every six months, road flares, first aid kit and DOT sticker if the truck is used for business. Oh you own a lawn car business and pull a trailer, now the county mounties are pulling you over for safety checks.
Basically a truck used to haul/tow will need 200–300 kwh battery and now a basic truck is 150K. I predict that in 10 years we will be lucky if there are 15–20 million electric cars in the US. Meanwhile, airplanes, cargo ships, trains and 90% of all OTL semi trucks will remain fossil fuel burning.
Within five years there will be massive environmental fights over pollution caused from batteries and the mining completely damaging 20% of the ground water from millions of tons of sulfuric acid needed to mine all these metals.
People don’t realize that the world doesn’t need to not use oil. The price of oil is dependent on the total amount used.
If the amount use drops by 20% then the price of oil will drop, a lot. Forget about the next 15 years. In 5 years at most, the price of oil will hit a new low due to EVs in China alone.
Because China uses about 10 million barrels a day. If China imports only 5 million. The price will drop like a rock due to massive over supply in the market.
15 years? The price of oil will hit a low. I would have to go and do some calculations to figure out what it would be with the money inflation but it will be equivalent to $1 a gallon of gas.
So ironically, if the US is the last holdout on EVs, we will see a new low price in gas.
EVs are powered by…. what?
You guessed it, oil and natural gas which generates electricity which runs EVs.
Your question sounds superficial , what can happen to Saudi Arabia's economy ? Saudi Arabia can throw away every penny they have into the sea and earn it all over again and crush your head with that weight