Since India cannot accept the reality that it is NOT the most influential component of BRICS and SCO, demonstrated by its intent of sabotaging the strategic plans of those organizations, would it not be a better solution for everyone, if India exts BRICS and SCO, so that it can concentrate on working with the G7 where it can pretend to be the most influential component? Oh wait, India is not in the G7 …?
印度无法接受自己不是金砖国家和上海合作组织中最有影响力的成员国,意图破坏这些组织的战略计划,那么不如退出金砖和上合组织吧,这样印度就可以集中精力与七国集团合作,装作自己是最有影响力的成员国,这不是更好的解决方案吗?哦,等等,印度还没加入七国集团吗?
以下是Quora网友的评论:
Robert Quek
BRICS is more about economics. Brazil, Russia, India, and China were fast growing emerging economies, with great growth prospects at the time the organsiation was formed. South Africa joined later. Members in the organisation have equal standing. Geography is irrelevant. The realities are (1) China has the strongest and largest economy, and growing the fastest, and (2) Russia is military superpower.
SCO is the successor to the Shanghai Five formed in 2001. India and Pakistan joined in 2017. It is more about security in Central Asia. It too is an organisation whose members are equal. The realities are the same as in BRICS.
金砖国家更关注经济。巴西、俄罗斯、印度和中国都是高速增长的新兴经济体,在该组织成立时具有巨大的增长前景。后来南非也加入金砖。该组织的成员国享受平等的地位,和地理位置无关。现在的情况是(1)中国拥有最强大和最庞大的经济体,增长速度也最快;(2)俄罗斯是军事超级大国。
上海合作组织的前身是2001年成立的“上海五国”。印度和巴基斯坦于2017年加入该组织。这个组织更关注中亚地区的安全,成员国享受平等的地位。现实情况和金砖国家一样。
China leads the BRI scheme. It is the main lender. BRICS and SCO members are partner-countries in the scheme. India is the exception. It did not join because the railway project in Pakistan traversed through a part of territory it disputed in Kashmir. China has invested heavily in the partner-countries, and trade between them have grown rapidly. In 2021, China set the target to grow the trade volume with SCO countries to a cumulative $2.3 trillion in the next 5 years, and to optimise the trade structure and improve trade balance.
中国主导“一带一路”项目,也是主要的贷款国。金砖国家和上海合作组织成员国都是“一带一路”伙伴国家。只有印度是个例外。印度没有加入“一带一路”,原因是巴基斯坦的铁路项目穿越了巴基斯坦在克什米尔存在争议的部分领土。中国对伙伴国进行了大量投资,双边贸易增长迅速。2021年,中国提出将在未来5年实现与上合组织国家的贸易额累计达到2.3万亿美元的目标,优化贸易结构,改善贸易平衡。
I cannot say whether India expects to be the most influential component of BRICS and SCO? It would be against the grain of the organisations, as well as, the realities. India has no economic nor military hefts. It is a member like other members. India’s problems are with Pakistan and China. It would be to its own detriment if it fails to separate them from the two organisations.
我不知道印度是否希望成为金砖和上合组织中最具影响力的成员国?这个想法既违背了组织的意愿,也违背了现实。印度没有足够的经济和军事实力。它和其他国家一样只是一个成员国。印度的痛点在于巴基斯坦和中国。如果印度不能把它们从两个组织中分离出来,那将对印度自己造成损害。
I am also not aware that it intends to sabotage any strategic plans. Many countries have expressed interest on join the two organisations. I don’t think India can frustrate it. Any holdup of approvals are likely to be procedural and organisational. Admission of new members takes time because it requires many steps and enquiries.
我也不清楚印度有没有什么蓄意破坏的计划。许多国家都表示有兴趣加入这两个组织。我认为印度没有能力阻挠破坏。接纳新成员国需要时间,因为涉及许多步骤和调查。
Russia takes the lead to work with China to devise a BRICS currency, or a framework to use local currencies to trade and settle transactions. India announced it will not participate. No sweat. India is a small player in international trade, and the Rupee is even smaller in international finance. India has an ongoing problem with Russia. It has failed its commitment to exchange billions and billions of Rupee stuck in the RCB, into other more useable currencies. Russia has refused to accept Rupee payments for its exports.
俄罗斯带头和中国合作,规划使用金砖国家货币或当地货币进行贸易和结算的框架。印度宣布不参加。印度在国际贸易中只是一个小角色,卢比在国际金融中的占比更小。印度与俄罗斯之间的问题一直存在。印度央行未能兑现将数十亿卢比兑换成其他可用货币的承诺。俄罗斯因此拒绝接受用卢比支付其出口结算金额。
It is India’s choice to stay or leave the organisations. If it leaves, other members may be sanguine. No one will follow it.
English speaking Indians may prefer India to align with the US. They are Anglophile, and enamoured by Modi’s welcome in the US. Even if India bends every which way and gains admittance into G7, it will only be a step-member. No way will it be treated an equal by the US. India already knows this from its experience in Quad. It was shunted when the Delta variant ravaged the country, and was called a weak-link, when it did not join the sanctions against Russia. It is useful to the US only as an irritant vis China, by virtue of its large population and its shared borders.
要继续留在这些组织还是离开,这是印度的选择。如果印度选择退出,其他成员国可能还是会很乐观,没有人会跟随印度的脚步。
说英语的印度人可能更喜欢印度与美国结盟。印度就是亲英派,又被莫迪在美国受到的欢迎所迷惑。就算印度用尽心机打入了七国集团,它也只能是个新人。美国不可能平等对待印度。印度已经从其在四方集团的经历中认识到这一点了。当德尔塔亚种病毒肆虐印度时,其他国家避而不谈;当印度没有参与对俄罗斯的制裁时,又被指责掉链子。对美国来说,印度只有在刺激中国时才是有用的,因为中国拥有庞大的人口,又和印度直接接壤。
India in fact has difficulties to join any international organisation with an economic perspective. Its instinct is protectionist, and the traditional wealthy families hold sway over the economy. Thus, the on-again-off-again trade agreement with UK came to a dead end, and RCEP countries wasted years negotiating with it, only to see it walked away. It is not a desirable partner in a multilateral setting. The claim that it has a large market is exaggerated. Market size is better gauged by GDP than population.
事实上,印度很难加入任何以经济发展为主要目的的国际组织。印度奉行保护主义,传统的富裕家庭控制着国家经济。印度与英国时断时续的贸易协定也因此陷入了死胡同,区域全面经济伙伴关系协定组织的国家浪费了数年的时间和印度进行谈判,结果无疾而终。在多边关系中,印度不是一个令人满意的伙伴。印度拥有庞大的市场,这种说法只是夸大其词。用GDP来衡量市场规模比用人口规模来衡量更准确。
Ray Comeau
Thanks for request
If you look a the history of India since Modi , there is a clear pattern of behaviour:
India welcomes being invited to join an organization or a trade agreement. Everything seems fine with meetings, negotiations, then India slow walks the process and eventually "poof" India withdraws at the last moment.
如果你看看自莫迪执政以来的印度历史,就会发现一个明显的行为模式:
印度欣然接受加入某个组织或某个贸易协定的邀请。印度参与各种会议和谈判,一切看起来都很顺利,然后印度慢条斯理地完成进度,最终会选择在最后一刻退出。
This has happened with RCEP, CPTPP.
Numerous RFP's from foreign weapons contractors for major purchase contracts, that either fade to a much smaller purchase or fail to reach an agreement after years of negotiations.
India is part of QUAD, which has meetings but never advanced at all beyond being in a club with the US.
What India has is a huge population and a lot of potential but under Modi, has a protectionist and post-colonial mindset.
区域全面经济伙伴关系协定组织和跨太平洋伙伴关系全面进步协定都是如此。
来自外国武器承包商的大量主要采购合同的RFP,要么褪色为一个小得多的采购,要么经过多年的谈判未能达成协议。
印度是四国战略伙伴关系的成员,该组织有过会议,但从未超越与美国的俱乐部。
印度拥有庞大的人口和巨大的潜力,但在莫迪的领导下,印度坚守一种保护主义和后殖民地思维方式。
Indian nationalists crave one thing almost more than anything else on the international stage, and that is to sit at the table of the UNSC as a permanent member.
India under Modi is incapable of taking part of any formal organization which is in opposition to the headmaster(s).
在国际舞台上,印度民族主义者所追求的几乎就是一个目的:作为常任理事国坐在联合国安理会的桌前。
莫迪领导的印度没有能力参加任何反对霸主的正式组织。
Peter Ole Kvint
The answer is that China does not want to have power in the world because this is too expensive, then India can just take power if they want to waste money on it.
The most likely thing is that India pays China so that China will give them formal power and it all ends up being big empty words because India forgets to pay.
答案是,中国并无意在国际社会拥有控制力,因为这样做的成本太昂贵了。如果印度想在这上面浪费钱,那么他们大可以去拼去抢。
最可行的方式是印度付钱给中国,中国授予印度正式权力,但最后都会变成一纸空谈,因为印度忘了转账。
Wesley Little
Understanding anything that PM Modi does is waisted time, somewhat like watching a dog chasing its tail! Modi seems to have forgotten which countries have been India's best global friends. Let Modi depend on Putin to stand with India against China!
揣摩莫迪总理做的任何事情都是在浪费时间,就跟看傻狗追自己尾巴玩一样!!莫迪似乎已经忘了哪些国家是印度的好朋友。莫迪就指望普京跟印度站在一起对抗中国吧!
Jm Chow
India was a founding members of BRICS. BRICS is NOT a hegemon. It has no power .. to ask India to leave BRICS. If India left, it will no longer be BRICS… BRCS without the vowel, “I” just cannot be verbalized.
Yes. India appears to be sabotaging BRICS’ plan to replace the US dollar. If India opted out, the other four members can still implement their plan …without India ... just like the RCEP plan of ASEAN. No big issue.
印度是金砖的创始成员国之一。金砖不是霸权组织。金砖没有权力……要求印度退出金砖国家。如果印度离开,它就不再是金砖国家了,BRCS没有了元音,“我”无法用语言表达。
是的。印度似乎想要破坏金砖国家取代美元的计划。如果印度选择退出金砖,其他四个成员国也可以继续实施他们的计划。就像东盟的区域全面经济伙伴关系协定组织一样。小事一桩。
As for SCO, members are not obliged to agree to all SCO proposals. If anyone disagree with the operations proposal, they can refuse to sign it. All it means … India will not comply with the proposal. No big deal. The other SCO members can act without Indian’s participation. It is India’s losses.. over the long term.
As for India become a logistic hub for US aircraft carriers and US airforce… India has the right to become the host of US military bases in India. If India chose to became a US vassal state, so be it. Modi has the power to act on behalf of India to decide for India. It means.. the US empire has grown in size ..the US empire now include India. It is sad that …India has changed from a British colony … to now an American colony. …in a matter of only 60 years (it enjoys the freedom of an independent nation.)
就上海合作组织而言,成员国并没有义务赞同上海合作组织的所有提案。如果有人不同意某个提案,他们大可以拒绝签字,这只是意味着印度不遵照该提案行事罢了。没什么大不了的。其他上合组织成员国也可以在没有印度参与的情况下采取行动。从长远来看,这只是印度自己的损失…
至于印度成为美国航母和空军的后勤中心,印度只是有权成为美国在印度军事基地的东道主。如果印度自愿成为美国的附属国,那就顺其自然吧。莫迪有权代表印度为印度做出决定。这意味着……美帝国的规模扩大了…美帝国现在又拉拢了印度。只是很可悲,在短短60年的时间里(印度成为独立国家后),印度又从英国殖民地变成了美国殖民地。
Rajesh Raj
Any global organisation only exsts to coordinate policies of several countries so that conflicts are minimized and benefits are maxmized. Any action taken requires consensus. Collective action is always a bonus. This is evidenced by the difficulties that we have seen in climate change discussions or the disagreements at trade organisations in general.
任何全球性组织的存在都只是为了协调几个国家的政策,将冲突最小化,实现利益最大化。采取任何行动都需要各方达成共识。集体行动总有好处。我们在气候变化讨论中看到的困难,以及贸易组织中普遍存在的分歧,都证明了这一点。
Countries are always driven by national self interest. Whether a single country prevails over others depends on how powerful the said country is. To take unilateral action, you need to be very powerful by a big margin, like the US has been. If China wants to prevail over others, it needs to create a big power gap in its favor between itself and the US. As long as China cannot achieve that, there will be other powers like India who will resist unilateral initiatives that don't favor them.
每个国家都是由各国自身利益驱动的。一个国家是否凌驾于其他国家之上,取决于这个国家有多强大。想要采取单边行动,你就必须非常强大,强大如美国一样。如果中国想要战胜其他国家,就必须在中国和美国之间制造一个对中国有利的悬殊实力对比。只要中国无法做到这一点,就会有印度这样的其他大国抵制对他们不利的单边提案。
China is still behind the US, so the take away for China is to become more powerful. Not only does China have to become much more powerful than the US, it also has to contend with other rising powers. Achieving geopolitical dominance is not easy, China is only learning it the hard way.
中国现在仍然落后于美国,所以中国的目标就是要变强大。中国不仅要变得比美国强大得多,还要与其他正在崛起的大国抗衡。获得地缘政治主导地位并非易事,中国在艰难的发展道路意识到了这一点。
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