Can the US Stop China From Becoming a Global Superpower? John Mearsheimer on US-China Rivalry

约翰・米尔斯海默谈中美竞争：美国能否阻止中国成为全球超级大国？

What happens when two global powers compete for dominance? Political scientists John Mearsheimer of the University of Chicago and Joshua Byun of Boston College explore the shifting dynamics of global power, America's foreign policy strategy, and China's growing influence.

德国之声报道：当两个全球大国争夺主导权时会发生什么？芝加哥大学政治学家约翰・米尔斯海默与波士顿学院的约书亚・卞，探讨全球力量格局的演变、美国对外战略以及中国日益增长的影响力。

米尔斯海默认为：

大国几乎从不合作，几乎总是竞争。

历史上美国面对四个潜在霸权国家——德意志帝国、日本帝国、纳粹德国、苏联——都没合作，而是把他们打败。美国不容忍区域霸权，合作不在其剧本里。

根本逻辑是世界极度不确定：在竞争中你想抢第一步，并设法让竞争发生在对方后院。若你与我达成合作后我突然翻脸、把竞争引到你后院，你就麻烦了。因此各方抢先进攻的动机巨大。

以下是各国网友的评论：

johnkoh5207
Why do you need to stop other countries from growing??

美国为什么非要阻拦别的国家发展？

 

bixudiwon6363
I will be jealous at least

换我的话，我至少会眼红中国的发展

 

PahatRout
This bunch forgot to read "The Bell Curve", otherwise they won't lose their hours arguing this issues.

这帮人怕是没读过《钟形曲线》，不然也不会耗上好几个小时争论这些话题。

 

gwto7448
Instead of fixng your own country and uplifting your own people, America is fixated on stop China. That's the whole problem

美国不去好好治理本国、改善本国民众的生活，一门心思要遏制中国。这就是问题的根源。

 

LuZhao-z4q
Why are we so obsessed with stop the Chinese? I don’t see how it can make our lives better. China does not threat US unless you treat affordable chinese products a threat.

我们为什么一门心思要遏制中国？我看不出这能让我们的日子变好。中国并没有威胁美国，除非你把物美价廉的中国商品当成一种威胁。

 

UpotipotponHerald
China works on a different page. It has 1.6 billion citizens to feed, keep warm and bring many out folk out of poverty. It trades with countries, establishes agricultural , grain, minerals, ore, primary industry networks for trade in order as an insurance policy against the catastrophie of global warming. It doesn't need to stomp on the heads of countries. Yes it has a navy to protect it's ship routes and trading partners. It is working towards self sufficiency, not relying on cru de oil to run it's economy.

中国的思路和别人不一样。它要养活16亿人，保障大家的温饱，还要让大量民众摆脱贫困。

中国和各国开展贸易，搭建农业、粮食、矿产、矿石等基础产业的贸易网络，以此作为应对全球变暖灾难的保障。

中国不需要、也不会去欺压别的国家。她建设海军，只是为了保护本国海上航道和贸易伙伴。中国一直在努力实现自给自足，不靠原油来支撑经济运转。

a.v.gavrilov
Особенно если учесть что они впереди всего мира по солнечной энергетике (которая у них ещё с 2021 года дешевле угольной даже в варианте снабжения аккумуляторным хранением для того чтобы сделать её диспетчеризированной, то есть чтобы она была когда нужна, а не когда солнце светит), а также в электрификации их транспорта на земле, и планов по переводу контейнеровозов на атомные реакторы (a la Copenhagen Atomics, — они его так не называют, но по описанию это аналог двух таких реакторов, датчане свой делают на 100 МВт тепловой энергии, и 42.+МВт электрической).
То есть они действительно собираются уйти от зависимости не только от жидких углеводородов, в пределе они смогут от практически любого ископаемого топлива отказаться (уже добытого тория им там за глаза будет; впрочем там не то чтобы много добывать надо).
Это что касается их грядущей независимости от поставок нефти.
Про остальное — не буду здесь занимать сторону

尤其是要知道，他们中国的太阳能产业全球领先。早在2021年，就算搭配储能电池，实现按需供电，而不是只有出太阳的时候才有电，太阳能的成本也已经低于煤炭。同时他们的陆上交通电气化也走在前列，还计划给集装箱船装配核反应堆

也就是说，他们中国不只是打算摆脱液态油气的依赖，长远来看，几乎可以脱离所有化石燃料。他们国内已开采的钍资源就完全够用，而且钍的开采量不需要很大。

以上说的是他们未来摆脱石油进口依赖的方向。至于其他方面，我就不站队了。

nitholx917
well is 1.4billions chinese as most, not 1.6.

纠正一下，中国人口是14亿，不是16亿。

 

zaradaneshvar3904
Im getting Mearsheimer fatigue!

我都听腻米尔斯海默的那套说法了！

 

waichui2988
The strength of any country is created internally. When a country is big and strong beyond a certain point, you cannot stop them. Even trying to slow them down will impose heavy costs on yourself. China pasted that a point long time ago.
Do you educate your people? Do you build a competent government? Do you eradicate corruption? Do you create a political culture of putting significant issues outside of party politics and debate them on their own merits? Do you adopt good policies? Do you emphasize economic development? Do you have long term planning? Do you limit economic inequality in your own country? Do you devote resources to build and maintain infrastructure? Do you learn from everyone, including other countries? Do you start or join unnecessary wars? Do you listen?
These are the criteria by which countries grow their strength. Grade China and the US on these criteria and you get the answer. You cannot stop or slow down a peer power. If you cannot stop or slow them down, make peace.

一个国家的国力，是靠内部积累出来的。当一个国家发展壮大到一定程度，你就拦不住它的发展脚步。就算只想拖慢它的脚步，自己也要付出巨大代价。中国早就跨过这个临界点了。

美国有没有好好教育自己的国民？能不能打造高效能干的政府？能不能形成一种政治氛围：重大议题跳出党派争斗，就事论事理性讨论？能不能出台好政策？重不重视经济发展？有没有长远规划？能不能控制国内贫富差距？会不会投入资源建设、维护基础设施？愿不愿意向其他个偶记学习？能不能听得进不同意见？

这些就是国力增长的评判标准。拿这些标准对比中美两国，答案自然就出来了。同级别的大国，你拦不住，也拖不慢。既然拦不住，那中美就和平相处。

 

horridohobbies
The idea of messing around in somebody's backyard is very foolish. It can lead to major conflict. Major conflict can lead to world war. World war can lead to nuclear apocalypse.
It makes no sense to mess around in the backyard of a nuclear-armed superpower. It's much wiser to give each side plenty of breathing space. Stay in your own backyard.

跑到别人的家门口惹事，这个想法非常愚蠢。很容易升级成大规模冲突，进而引发世界大战，最后可能酿成核灾难。

去一个核大国的家门口挑事，完全没有道理。给彼此留出足够的空间，才是明智之举，管好自己这边的事。

 

GeorgeTSiy
note every power is a rogue state... many in history were not aggressive except when their nations or allies were threatened. Persians ie Iran even freed the Jews and financed the temple in jerusalem, Ming dynasty china roamed asia and africa without trying to conquer the nations, etc... but the necessity of conflict is an excuse for trhe US ... US is a demonstrated and proven threat to other countries , invading at will, whereas Russia and China do not have that history for many decades already and for China, for hundreds of years.

要知道，不是所有强国都是*氓国家。历史上很多大国，只要本国或者盟友没有受到威胁，就不会主动侵略。波斯人，也就是今天的伊朗，当年还释放犹太人、出资修建耶路撒冷圣殿；中国明朝船队走遍亚非，也没有去征服当地国家。但美国总拿“冲突不可避免”当借口。事实证明美国对别国是巨大威胁，随意入侵别国。而俄罗斯、中国几十年都没有这样，中国更是几百年来都没有入侵别国。

 

evilboy-r8i
The world is fed up with the hypocrite USA... Bullies, hegemony, warmongering, sanctions, extortion the world with the dollar and overthrowing countries to steal the resources or regime changes... This must stop!!! Enough is enough!!!

全世界都受够虚伪的美国了！横行霸道、搞霸权、煽动战争、四处制裁，靠着美元收割全世界，还推番别国政权掠夺资源。这种行径必须停下！适可而止吧！

 

horridohobbies
Mearsheimer argues that a regional hegemon may be able to enter your own backyard to cause problems. The key word here is may.
But may does not imply likelihood. You can use may to justify all kinds of stupid policies.
Mearsheimer's may is some combination of paranoia and projection, not realism.

米尔斯海默说，区域霸权国家有可能跑到你的家门口制造麻烦。重点是“有可能”这三个字。但是“有可能”不等于大概率会发生。拿一个“有可能”，就能给各种荒唐政策找借口。
米尔斯海默这个“有可能”，本质是多疑加上以己度人，根本不是现实主义。

 

 

louistan7560
Does China want to be a "global super-power"? Only idiots want to do that.

中国想当“全球超级大国”吗？只有傻瓜才想当。

 

avici1
Too late

太迟遏制了，已经晚了。

 

brianlowe3529
What’s your beef with China prof john .

这位教授啊，你到底和中国有什么过节？

 

UpotipotponHerald
Yes, why not list all those thousands companies China trade and manufacture in cooperation and on behalf with many countries including the U.S.A. The trade process of globilisation works.
U. S. multinational companies have manufacturing and subcontractors, suppliers based in China.
They are partnered in diversifying agricultural productivity, mining projects throughout the world.
The are partner in massive civil costruction projects in many western and nonwestern countries.American are out of touch with how the rest of the world gets in with the job.

怎么不提成千上万和中国合作、代工的各国企业，其中也包括美国企业。全球化的贸易体系本来是能正常运转的。美国跨国企业在中国都有工厂、分包商和供应商。

各方一起合作，在全球各地拓展农业生产、开发矿产项目。中国还在很多西方国家和非西方国家参与大型基建工程。很多美国人根本不了解世界其他地方是怎么开展合作的。

 

buyer8631
Does it really matter? The entire world now knows the US has lost that war. You can still claim whatever you want, nobody can tell Trump what he can not claim anyway. Just leave.

这还有意义吗？全世界都清楚美国已经输掉这场博弈了。你想怎么说都随便，反正也没人能管住特朗普的说法。不如收手吧。

 

twnetf
China makes high tech accessibility equal between the rich and the poor countries! US don’t care about the poor countries. That’s one reason we need to support China against the Americans.

中国让贫穷国家也能用上高科技，富国穷国机会更平等！美国根本不在乎穷国。这也是我们要支持中国、对抗美国的原因之一。

 

IceCream-8888
Not China , India is superduper power

中国不是超级大国，印度才是超级强国。

 

Rennie-g5r
In China's 5000 years of history, the Chinese have traded with every nation in peace and have not colonised an inch of overseas territory. The US however, in its 250 years of exstence, has invaded, killed, maimed, displaced, hundreds of millions of people in countries on every continent of the planet. China will never call itself a superpower or a hegemon. Living in peace with all the other countries with mutual respect and help others in times of difficulty has always been the aim of the Chinese people. Sadly, other people with real hegemonic ambitions would see this as a weakness.

中国五千年历史里，一直和各国和平通商，从来没有占领过一寸海外殖民地。反观美国，建国250年，在各大洲发动入侵，造成数亿人伤亡、流离失所。中国永远不会自称超级大国或者霸权国家。和各国互相尊重、和平共处，在别人遇到困难时伸出援手，这一直都是中国人的追求。可惜，那些一心想搞霸权的人，会把这份善意当成软弱。