Kevin Rudd Warns US-China Strategic Rivalry Is Intensifying Across Every Sphere Of Global Power

陆克文警告：中美的战略竞争，正在全球各个权力领域持续加剧

陆克文在哈佛大学贝尔弗中心论坛上和主持人进行对话，核心围绕中美战略竞争、大国博弈等议题展开

陆克文说：当下世界的政治中间派正在瓦解，很多普通民众生活压力大，转而投向极右翼民粹或者极左翼。与此同时，全世界还要一起应对几大全球性难题：第一是中美之间的地缘战略竞争，两国博弈会决定21世纪国际秩序的走向；第二是全球债务问题，债务不断累积，有引发新一轮金融危机的风险；第三是地缘科技竞争，人工智能快速普及，需要把握机遇同时管控前沿AI自主运行带来的安全风险；第四是气候变化。

陆克文对哈佛大学学生的建议：想要看懂中国，学习中文非常关键。掌握中文才能真正理解中国人的思维方式，这也是当年哈佛设立东亚研究方向的初衷。随后他分享自己的经历：他在澳大利亚农村长大，很早就认定中国会深刻影响澳大利亚的未来，于是很早就系统学习古汉语、现代汉语以及中国历史，从尧舜时代一直学到当代。他毕业后进入澳大利亚的外交部门，一度被派往瑞典，30岁就担任州长官幕僚长，一步步进入联邦议会。他长期的核心目标，就是避免中美两个大国发生冲突，不让全世界跟着遭殃。

【三泰虎网注：陆克文，本名 凯文・迈克尔・拉德（Kevin Michael Rudd），1957 年生，澳大利亚前工党总理，能流利说中文的澳大利亚政客】

以下是各国网友的评论：

JeremySMJ
Why? He doesn't seem all that negative about china. Fairly realistic talking points that were tame. Only thing is he is too afraid of getting canceled so doesn't actually say anything insightful. A pretty boring talk if anything

他（陆克文）对中国的态度看着不算负面。讲的内容还算实在，措辞也很温和。问题就是他太怕被网暴封杀，所以没说出什么有深度的观点。整场演讲说白了挺乏味的。

 

donaldong2043
If China has real economic problems (and which country doesn't?), what about the US (with it's $40T in debt plus unfunded off balance sheet liabilities?), the West failing economics, out of control debt and still living beyond their means?. I think the West need to focus on putting their house in order rather than wasting their energy on China's problems

就算中国确实存在经济难题（哪个国家没有呢？），那美国呢？美国债务高达40万亿美元，还有大量账外没有资金兜底的负债。西方经济不景气、债务失控，还一直入不敷出。我觉得西方该先管好自己，别把精力浪费在操心中国的问题上。

 

watchman835
Why don’t you find a place to talk about US’ problems? Unfortunately for you though, it is not topic of Kevin’s discussion here. He claims to be China expert not a US expert.

你怎么不去别的地方聊美国的问题？可惜，这不是陆克文这次讨论的主题。他自称是中国问题专家，不是研究美国的专家。

 

STEMCivil168
When your own house is in fire...why are you looking to damage your neighbours lawn

自家房子都着火了，还想着去祸害邻居家？

 

ustbecause3187
Yes the internal issues of the West are a problem, but any wise geopolitical strategist will tell you that this is no excuse to lose sight of the bigger picture of the great game being played in the world.

西方内部确实有很多麻烦，但任何有眼光的地缘战略学者都会告诉你，这不代表可以忽视全球这场大国博弈的大局。

 

wrathokan2026
The game of great power competition?
If that is what you are referring, then taking care of issues at home strengthens ones hand to deal with competition outside.
Unfortunately, all the G7 are deep in debt, many have slow growth and are cutting benefits. Majority of citizens are falling behind as cost rise but wages are stagnant. Meanwhile, they plan to spend more on war.
Reminds me of the USSR in the 80s.

你说的是大国竞争这场博弈吗？如果是这个意思，那先把国内问题处理好，才能更有底气应对外部竞争。

可惜，七国集团全都债台高筑，不少国家经济增长缓慢，还在削减福利。物价上涨、工资却不涨，大部分老百姓日子越来越难。与此同时，他们还打算增加军费投入。
这让我想起八十年代的苏联。

 

justbecause3187
@wrathokan2026 what happens abroad does tend to have a significant impact on things like cost of living and general prosperity. There is certainly more our politicians and leaders could do to improve such things at home but sadly they have become too corrupt and ideologically captured to really care or do anything about it. BTW I'm basically a political independent so I think both sides of politics are at fault.

国外发生的事，确实会很大程度影响生活成本和整体经济状况。政客们本来可以做更多事改善国内情况，但很遗憾，他们腐化严重，被意识形态裹挟，根本不愿上心、不愿行动。顺带一提，我不属于任何党派，我觉得两边都有问题。

 

wrathokan2026
Yes. What happens internationally affects US costs.
The world is a global economy and the US imports a lot of goods. Politics affect costs at home, increased distrust, wars, tariffs, trade barriers, longer ship routes, fewer ships/containers, less oil and refined products, cost of fertilizer, building materials like wood from canada, steel, aluminum, rare earth's, bond rates, foreign investment and so many more things affect prices in the usa.
The usa is interdependent on the international ecosystem. Thats not going away. Making enemies turns out is not great for improving quality of life

没错。国际局势会影响美国的物价。全球经济是一体的，美国大量商品依靠进口。政治因素会推高国内成本：信任下降、战争、关税、贸易壁垒、海运路线变长、船只和集装箱变少、石油及成品油供应收紧、化肥、加拿大木材这类建材、钢铁、铝、稀土、债券利率、外资等等，一大堆因素都会影响美国物价。美国和全球体系互相依存，这点不会改变。到处树敌，根本没法提升民众生活水平。

 

gunsumwong3948
Kevin Rudd is either blind or anti-China because he legitimizes the US as the attacking nation by suggesting China the resisting nation fighting back is just a war of rivalry. The fact is the resisting nation doesn't attack when not provoked.

陆克文要么看不清事实，要么就是反华。中国是在反击美国，他却说成是大国对抗，等于变相认可美国是进攻方。事实是，作为自卫的一方，中国不会主动挑起冲突。

 

tehfun4982
IT'S ALSO TRUE THAT USA AND EUROPE HAD THIER OWN SUBSIDY PROGRAMS FOR THEIR INDUSTRIES.....
EG. CHIP ACT, CRITICAL MINERAL ACT, EUROPEAN CHIPS ACT AND IPCEI AND ALSO SUPPORT TO BOIENG AND AIRBUS ETC?

美国和欧洲其实也一直在给本土产业补贴。比如芯片法案、关键矿产法案、欧洲芯片法案、欧洲重要项目联盟，还有扶持波音、空客这些企业，不是吗？

 

chidigit
The extreme jealousy and obsession of the west towards China is deeply infuriating and just plain disgusting. Acting as though they own the world and have a say in how each and every country should govern itself.
It's pathetic

西方对中国满是嫉妒，死死盯着中国，实在让人恼火，也很让人反感。他们一副全世界都归他们管的样子，觉得自己有权指点每个国家怎么治理。
实在可悲。

 

justbecause3187
America, Australia and to some extent the broader West are involved yes, but not without the encouragement of many of China's neighbours.

美国、澳大利亚，还有广义上的不少西方国家确实参与其中，但这背后也有很多中国周边国家在推波助澜。

 

thamhuencheong9836
in all simplicity .. china does not have any rivalry with the us .. china wants win-win cooperation ( and , china has spoken about this for years ) .. it is only the us / collective west have rivalry / zero sum mindset vis-a-vis china

说白了，中国和美国不存在对抗。中国想要的是双赢合作（中国这么说了很多年）。只有美国和西方阵营，抱着零和博弈的心态看待中国。

 

henrylaw135
Rudd,have you received money from USAID?

陆克文，你拿过美国国际开发署的钱吗？

 

Jul-v1m
what nonsense warmongering coming from kevin rudd...there's a reason why even trump said he did not like rudd..

陆克文这番话简直是在鼓吹战争，一派胡言。难怪连特朗普都说不喜欢陆克文。

 

redcow78
So do you like Trump or Rudd's perspective better?

那你更认同特朗普还是陆克文的看法？

 

shiulai5804
World leaders are visiting China and talking to Chinese leaders directly these days.
They are able to form their own opinions, based on these direct contacts.
When was the last time Kevin Rudd gets to talk to Chinese leaders?
Do we still need his second rate opinion?

现在很多国家领导人都会访华，直接和中国领导人沟通。他们能通过面对面交流，形成自己的判断。陆克文上次和中国领导人对话是什么时候？

 

chunde688
Here we go again, China China China
Are you guys in love with China that much? Or are you envious of China growth?
The best strategy for both the American and Australian is to build up your own countries, look after your own citizens. This way, you have a great country, talking about China not going to help you.
Time to go back to sleep

又来了，张口闭口都是中国。你们是对中国这么着迷，还是眼红中国的发展？美国和澳大利亚最好的办法，是好好建设本国，照顾好自己的国民。国家搞好了才是王道，天天讨论中国一点用都没有。该歇歇了。

 

louistan7560
Rudd is the equivalence of Gordon Chang in the US. Both have not been to China for decades. Rudd was quite impressive when he was Aussie PM. After step down, he went through the "Revolving Door" as most American and Western ex's do to front for their hirers.

陆克文就相当于美国的章家敦。两个人几十年都没去过中国。陆克文当澳大利亚总理的时候，表现还不错。卸任之后，他和很多西方前政客一样，进入旋转门，为背后的雇主站台。

 

redcow78
Rudd's intelligence and intuition are of a higher order. He reads people instantly. He sticks to underlying hard truths drawn from history instead of siren songs.

陆克文脑子灵光，洞察力很强。他一眼就能看透人。他立足历史总结出来的客观事实，不会被甜言蜜语蛊惑。

 

ndyng1665
One of the wisest and most thoughtful speaker turn out to be a court jester and joker

原本以为是睿智、有想法的演讲者，结果只是个哗众取宠的小丑。

 

PaulB-w3i
Lols. Rudd is always fear mongering about China. The guy pulls out his party trick of speaking a bit of mandarin and the Americans believe any drivel that comes out for his mouth

哈哈。陆克文总在渲染中国威胁。他就靠会说几句中文当噱头，美国人就信他随口瞎扯的一堆废话。

 

MikeHanley-pp4mc
The seeds of WW2 began in 1931 and world war came to Europe in 1939, and America came late in 1942
We are likely living through a similar time currently; we’re the global instability / military conflicts are catching up and develo into regional wars in 3 or 4 different global theaters of war.
Eventually likely to engulf hemisphere and then nation states and security alliances will be faced with taking a side in the conflicts.

二战的祸根始于1931年，战火1939年蔓延到欧洲，美国到1942年才参战。我们现在或许正处在类似的阶段：全球动荡、军事冲突不断发酵，会在三四个不同区域演变成局部战争。最后战火可能蔓延到整个半球，各国和安全联盟都被迫选边站队。

 

jeffyuan2995
Rudd may know Chinese language, but he has no clue about Chinese culture and philosophy

陆克文或许懂中文，但他根本不理解中国文化和思想。

 

justbecause3187
China is not a uniquely peaceful and serene country in the world, it has known war throughout its history just like everywhere else in the world.

中国并不是世上唯一一个一直太平的国家，历史上中国也经历过战争，和其他地方一样。

jeffyuan2995
@justbecause3187 By comparing what happened after the voyages of General Zheng He and Columbus in1403 and 1496 respectively, obviously China is more peaceful and benevolent than European colonial powers

对比1403年郑和下西洋，和1496年哥伦布远航之后发生的事就能看出来，中国明显比欧洲殖民国家更爱好和平

 

shiulai5804
What is "the world" for Kevin Rudd?
For most of us, the world has 8 BILLION inhabitants and 193 nations.
The world is bigger than the 5 nation Anglo sphere. It is bigger than the 7 G. It is bigger than his Collective West, whose total population is estimated to be between 880 million and 1.2 billion people, depending on how the geopolitical boundaries are defined.
Kevin Rudd's fear mongering against China is based on his assertion that the tiny group of 1.2 Billion ( at the maxmum) should RULE the whole world in PERPETUITY.
China is a "threat" because China is progressing too fast for the Collective West to subjugate.

在陆克文眼里，“世界”是什么？对我们大多数人来说，世界有80亿人口、193个国家。这个世界不只是五国盎格鲁圈，也不只是七国集团，更不等于他口中的西方阵营。根据地缘划分方式不同，西方阵营人口也就8.8亿到12亿。陆克文渲染中国威胁，背后的逻辑就是：这个最多12亿人的小群体，要永远掌控全世界。中国之所以被当成“威胁”，只是因为中国发展太快，西方阵营没法再压制我们。

 

kennethkong5484
But China economy , this year , growing at 4.5%, Twice that of USA

中国今年经济增速4.5%，是美国的两倍。

 

Danny-o2v
After rea off China of trillions on dollars, the West now wants to squeeze China’s blood

西方从中国捞走数万亿美元之后，现在还想继续压榨中国。