Can India Win From the Globalization Reset?

印度能否在全球化重构中取胜？

At Bloomberg’s New Economy Forum in New Delhi, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi cautioned against weaponizing supply chains, energy and technology. Business leaders say they are adapting to a world where supply chains are being rebuilt, geopolitical risk is permanent and countries like India are competing to capture the capital being redirected.

在新德里举办的彭博新经济论坛上，印度总理纳伦德拉·莫迪警示，不要将供应链、能源与技术武器化。商界领袖表示，他们正在适应这样一个世界：供应链正在重建，地缘政治风险成为常态，而印度等国家正竞相吸引重新流向各地的资本。

彭博新经济论坛在印度新德里举办，各国政府、商界与市场领袖，一起探讨当下全球充满不确定性的局势。

印度总理莫迪在论坛开篇发言，他提醒各国警惕一些国家将经济工具武器化的风险。曾经把世界连接在一起的供应链、能源、矿产、支付体系和技术，如今都沦为某些国家对外施压与胁迫的手段。与此同时，人工智能正在重塑各行各业，多国人口老龄化压力快速加剧。当前全球最大的难题之一就是信任危机：人们无法确定物资供应能否持续、各国能否信守承诺、伙伴国能否在危难时相互支持。

参加讨论的有美国前商务部长吉娜・雷蒙多、贝莱德首席运营官罗布・戈尔茨坦、印度财政部长尼尔马拉・西塔拉曼和黑石总裁乔恩・格雷。嘉宾一致认为，人工智能是影响最深远的变革力量。人工智能会深刻改变民众生活、企业经营和国家治理，带来生产力的大幅提升，有望拉动GDP增长

以下是各国网友的评论：

dungurothu
USA and Europe need to stop sanctions and weaponising currency.
Basically they need to grow up
If they want to go that path then if there is any alternate currency in future then they should not complain

美国和欧洲必须停止制裁，不要再把货币当成武器。其实他们该懂事一点。如果非要把货币当成武器，将来一旦出现替代货币，那就别发牢骚。

 

ingbasu6700
India is navigating just fine. That's actually what makes the Western ideologues and deep states crazy. India stayed away from other people's conflicts, grew its economy ( 7-8 %, 11th largest economy to 5th in a decade), maintained relationships with other nations, diversified its economic portfolios, scaled up it's manufacturing, modernization of it's military and enormous development at home. No amount of economic sanctions, tariffs, political hit jobs, instigation or coercion will stop India. We will continue to grow our economy, military and capabilities whatsoever. We have always been one of the largest economy most of human history along with the chinese civilization head to head. We will reclaim our rightful place in the world order. Not for dominance not for useless wars but for our motherland and it's future generation.

印度发展得顺风顺水。这恰恰让西方的意识形态鼓吹者和深层势力坐立不安。印度不掺和他国纷争，经济保持增长（增速7%-8%，十年内从全球第11大经济体升到第5位），和各国维持友好关系，经济布局多元化，扩大制造业规模，推进军队现代化，国内建设成果巨大。

再多的经济制裁、关税壁垒、政治抹黑、挑拨离间和威逼胁迫，都拦不住印度的崛起之路。我们会持续壮大经济、军力与综合实力。在人类历史大部分时间里，印度文明和中华文明一直并列，都是世界顶尖经济体。我们要在世界格局中拿回本属于我们的位置。不是为了称霸，也不是打无谓的战争，而是为了后代子孙

 

inkya_Bhendekar
India will winnnnnn

我们印度一定会赢！

Securedbyadt
Your per Capita income is comparable to Bangladesh

你们的人均GDP和孟加拉国差不多。

 

TestBasu
India is going up. Slow but steady wins the race

印度正在崛起。稳扎稳打，行而致远，赢得长跑。

 

vampyrkiller
Can't afford to be slow, debt will pile up if india becomes slow.

印度慢不起，一旦发展放缓，债务就会越堆越多。

oonknight3594
@vampyrkiller India's debt to gdp ratio so low ! I'm talking about external debt !

印度的债务占GDP比重很低！我说的是外债！

 

yiminwu7549
India is #1 superpower

印度是世界头号强国。

 

thomasrogers9146
THE RULES OF GLOBALIZATION WAS WRITTEN BY THE U.S AND THE WEST. THE GOAL WAS SIMPLE..THE U.S LEAD WEST 12% OF THE GLOBAL POPULATION WILL SHOULD AND MUST DOMINATE ADVANCED AND CRITICAL INDUSTRIES WHILE THE THE GLOBAL SOUTH 88% OF THE GLOBAL POPULATION SHOULD STAY UNDERDEVELOPED, MANUFACTURING LOW VALUE ADDED GOODS, PROVIDING RAW MATERIALS, LOW COST LABOR AND MARKETS FOR THE WEST. CHINA FLIPPED THE SCRIPT AND IS NOT ONLY MANUFACTURING HIGH VALUE ADDED GOODS BUT HAS MOVED UP THE VALUE CHAIN OUT INNOVATING OUT MANUFACTURING OUT EDUCATING ITS CITIZENS AND DOMINATING GLOBAL TRADE INCLUDING INDUSTRIES OF THE FEATURE.THIS IS WHY THE WEST IS MAD AT GLOBALIZATION.THEIR RACIST WHITE SUPREMACISTS ENTERTAINMENT MENTALITY PLANS FAILED..

全球化的规则由美国和西方制定。目标很简单：以美国为首的西方，只占全球12%人口，却要掌控高端核心产业；而占全球人口88%的全球南方国家，就得一直停留在欠发达状态，只能生产低附加值产品，为西方提供原材料、廉价劳动力和消费市场。

中国打破了这套规则，不光能生产高附加值产品，还实现产业链升级，还会创新、各方面全面赶超欧美，中国掌控全球贸易，甚至拿下未来产业。这就是西方反感全球化的原因。这套带着种族主义、白人至上幻想的计划落空了。

 

shubh123sfg
My mighty country will flourish

我伟大的国家（印度）会繁荣昌盛起来的啊。

 

viswasrujith8426
Even if not outright win, India can come out better than most of the world. That it self will be enough.

就算没法大获全胜，印度的处境也会优于世界大多数国家。能做到这点就足够了。

iotrailer8686
This is true, a lot has changed in the last 12 years. I haven't seen much work yet, this is amazing.

确实，印度过去12年变化巨大。虽然很多成果我还没亲眼见到，但已经很了不起。

 

rajeshn5653
No win or loose, Survive is Matter

不存在输赢，能否生存下去才是关键。

 

CrazyTeam-h8r
I love u modi

莫迪，我爱你。

 

 

the_insignificant_man
The question should be: Why is the West so anti-India?

真正该问的是：西方为什么如此敌视印度？

 

NNWtu
Hope the west has learnt a huge lesson. The future is self dependency, self defense and building good blocks.

希望西方能吸取深刻教训。我们未来的方向是自力更生、自主防卫，搭建可靠的伙伴阵营。

 

Snp2024
In 80s we could have started our micro chip fabrication journey but than governments were hostile to that idea . Thankfully new government is pro active in tech manufacturing sector i am also working in it goverment is giving easy loans to enterpreures and making sure foreign investment have to jump through less hoops . Already PLI scheme is giving fruit but it's only 1st step . Hopefully stability is maintained .

八十年代我们本可以自己开始制造芯片的，但当时的印度政府并不支持这个想法。好在新一届政府积极推动科技制造业，我就在这个行业工作。政府给企业提供贷款，简化外资准入流程。生产挂钩激励计划已经初见成效，但这只是第一步。希望局势能保持稳定。

 

thesevenkingswelove9554
Government wasn't hostile to the semiconductor idea. Stop lying to others. The semiconductor factory back then was lit on fire
All the work was destroyed

当年政府并没有反对半导体项目，别骗人。是我们印度那座半导体工厂遭遇火灾，所有研究成果全都毁了。

 

971PWF
To my fellow Americans, India is the future, let’s invest in here and make the world a better, stronger and safer place!!

各位美国同胞，印度代表未来。我们来这里投资，一起打造更美好、强大、安全的世界！

 

william8877cc
globalization is the new form of colonization, the west want to be in charge of everything. Even in other continents and countries. Im ashamed of it as a white man from the nordics. I hope the youth in the global south see how the west uses them and manipulate western values on them trough "freedom media" and social platforms like facebook, youtube. these social platforms and news networks all push western narrative and agenda which not belong in these countries or in their history

全球化是新式殖民。西方想掌控一切，向掌控别的大陆、别的国家。作为北欧白人，我对此感到羞愧。希望全球南方的年轻人看清西方的手段，即西方借着所谓自由媒体，还有脸书、油管这类社交平台，利用这些平台，强行向全球南方国家输出西方价值观。这些社交平台和新闻媒体，都在宣扬西方的说辞与诉求，这些东西并不符合当地国情和历史。

 

rocketscientist-e1c
Such BS. Globalisation is what allowed Japan, SK, China to get to where they are today. If your country can’t be competitive in the world market then it’s a you problem don’t blame global markets

一派胡言。正是全球化，才让日本、韩国、中国的经济发展到如今水平。如果你们国家在国际市场缺乏竞争力，那是自身问题，别怪全球市场。

winsonip4447
@rocketscientist-e1c At its core, globalization was about offloading dirty manufacturing and cheap labor to develo countries, while the West printed money out of thin air to buy up real goods. It’s how the neo-colonial machine worked, from the Four Asian Tigers to China.
But because the wealth generated wasn't shared fairly at home, Western voters revolted against globalization. Today, Western countries aren't being generous anymore: they want access to India's market, but won't open theirs in return. We already saw this under Biden, when Commerce Secretary Raimondo pushed talks with India that avoided any real free-trade agreement.

 全球化的本质，是把高污染制造业转移到发展中国家，利用当地廉价劳动力，而西方凭空印钱，换取发展中国家生产出来的实体商品。这就是新殖民的运作模式，从以前的亚洲四小龙到现在的中国都是如此。

但在西方内部，创造的财富分配不均，选民于是开始反对全球化。现在西方国家不再大方：他们想进入印度市场，却不愿对等开放本国市场。拜登时期就是这样，商务部长雷蒙多和印度谈判，刻意回避签署真正的自贸协定。

rocketscientist-e1c
@winsonip4447 cheap manufacturing is the only way to create enough jobs for a country of India’s size. And secondly you continently left out the Free trade agreement made with EU, UK, Australia. New Zealand with India. These countries have opened their markets to India.

对于印度这么大的国家，只有大规模发展低成本制造业，才能创造大量就业岗位。其次，你刻意不提印度和欧盟、英国、澳大利亚、新西兰签署的自贸协定。这些国家都对印度开放了市场。

winsonip4447
@rocketscientist-e1c India sealed its fate years ago when it refused to join RCEP, turning its back on the world's largest FTA and deep integration with Asian supply chains. On top of that, Western economies learned their lesson with China, they aren't going to hand over core technology to help India become the next industrial superpower. Rhetoric aside, New Delhi still hasn't done enough to fix its domestic business environment and make it genuinely welcoming for MNCs.

印度多年前拒绝加入区域全面经济伙伴关系协定，就已经埋下隐患，放弃了全球最大自贸协定，错失深度融入亚洲供应链的机会。除此之外，西方经济体从中国的经历吸取教训，不会交出核心技术，助力印度成为下一个工业强国。抛开漂亮话不谈，新德里在改善国内营商环境、真心接纳跨国企业方面做得还远远不够。

 

tilakkhattri3797
Countries dependent for raw materials to other countries will always be in risk in this world.

在当今世界，原材料依赖他国的国家，风险会一直有

 

 

Sevenofnine86
Till it’s Modi ji in the office average Indian citizens can sleep stress free

只要莫迪还在任，普通印度民众就能安心过日子。

 

Radioisodope15
The number of conflicts which the U.S. foreign commerce secretary stated have been started as a direct result of your own faulty understanding of real world politics and unnecessary wars your own government decided to start. The world should not have to pay for this. So it’s not very wise to then take the moral high ground and cry “urgency” to resolve those when you can just in the first place try avoiding them and keep global trade and commerce stable.

美国商务部长口中的诸多冲突，根源就是美方对现实政治的误判，以及美国政府主动挑起的没必要战争。不该让全世界为此买单。所以，先不去规避冲突、维护全球贸易稳定，事后却站在道德高地，高喊急需解决问题，这并不明智。

 

TheAryavartaTimes
India is growing at 8% when oil is $120, supply chain disruption, blockade in sea routes, El nino and war n conflicts all around the globe.

即便油价120美元、供应链断裂、海上航道受阻、厄尔尼诺来袭，加上全球各处战火不断，印度经济依旧保持8%的增速。

 

RaviKiran-lx2kw
Real Question is Can Bloomberg survive without globalisation..if America is going to put Visa restrictions..other countries will do the same to US companies

真正的问题是：没有全球化，彭博社还能不能活下去。如果美国实施签证限制，其他国家也会用同样手段对待美国企业。

 

lagrangewei
Answer is no. no one wins in a reset. it is why US is working hard to create a reset, a reset is least damaging to US and China since they are large enough to have an internal economic loop, that is the entire reason behind the decoupling theory. India etc still need external input to build up its internal loop, in an uncertain world, those input are less certain which make it harder for investor to bet on winners. for India to have a chance, the world would need to avoid a hard reset.

答案是不能。重构之下没有赢家。这也是美国极力推动这次格局重构的原因。对中美两国来说，重构带来的冲击最小。两国体量足够大，可以形成国内经济内循环，这就是脱钩理论的根本逻辑。而印度这类国家，还需要外部资源来搭建自身内循环。时局动荡，外部资源供应不稳定，投资者很难押注谁能胜出。印度想要获得机会，全世界必须避免剧烈的格局硬重构。

 

Amztoronto
Superpower of the universe

我们印度是宇宙超级大国。