Singapore prime minister warns of turbulence ahead in 'post-American' order | FT Interview

新加坡总理警告，“后美国时代” 秩序下的世界将面临动荡

Well, Prime Minister, Singapore is perhaps the most globalized country in the world. And you like rules, you like precision, you like mathematics.

总理先生，新加坡或许是全球化程度最高的国家。而且你们注重规则、讲究精确，也偏爱条理分明的逻辑。

We like stability.

我们更看重稳定。

You like predictability. Of course, you like visibility.

你们也注重可预测性，自然也希望局势清晰透明。

You must be having to adapt to a new world order. Tell me a little bit whether this requires fundamental change in the way that Singapore operates.

如今你们肯定要适应新的世界秩序吧？能不能谈谈，这是否需要新加坡从根本上改变运作方式？

We are certainly in the midst of a great transition to a multipolar world, a post-American order and a multipolar world. Uh, no one can tell how the transition will unfold. But there is no doubt it will be messy and unpredictable because America is step back from its role as global insurer. But there is no other country that's able to or willing to fill the vacuum. So we are in an uncomfortable position where the old rules do not apply anymore but the new ones have not been written, and we must brace ourselves for more turbulence ahead.

我们目前显然正处于重大转型期，朝着多极世界、“后美国时代” 的多极格局发展。没人能预判转型会如何推进，但毫无疑问，这个过程会混乱且充满不确定性 —— 因为美国正在逐步放弃其 “全球保障者” 的角色，却没有其他国家有能力或愿意填补这个权力真空。所以我们正处于一个尴尬的处境：旧规则已不再适用，新规则却尚未确立，未来我们必须做好应对更多动荡的准备。

So what are we to do in this environment? I think we cannot afford to just wait for things to happen or hope somehow that things magically will fall in place. We have to take actions now, plan now and start taking actions to invest together in tackling the problems of the global commons, or in building new trade connections and kee up the momentum of trade liberalization. So that's something that Singapore is keen to do. We can't do it alone, but we will do it with other like-minded countries.

在这样的环境下，我们该怎么做？我认为我们不能坐等事情发生，也不能指望一切会奇迹般地步入正轨。我们必须立即行动、着手规划，比如共同投入资源解决全球公共议题，搭建新的贸易联系，同时维持贸易自由化的势头。这正是新加坡迫切想做的事。我们无法独自完成，但会与其他理念相近的国家携手推进。

Can you envision a world without the US?

你能想象一个没有美国参与的世界吗？

The US may not be able or willing to join these plans now, but we have to press ahead and hopefully in time to come they will come along as well. But given the uncertainties and the unpredictabilities, we cannot just leave things to chance. We have to start taking actions now to lay the foundations of the new multilateral architecture.

美国目前可能没有能力或意愿加入这些计划，但我们仍需推进下去，希望未来他们也能参与进来。不过，考虑到局势的不确定性，我们不能听天由命，必须立即行动，为新的多边架构奠定基础。

But there are two views: that the next few years are more of a passing phenomenon, or that there are deep structural changes in the world order that we are now living through. You are in the second camp.

但目前有两种观点：一种认为未来几年的变化只是暂时现象，另一种则认为当前世界秩序正经历深刻的结构性变革。你属于后者，对吗？

Yes, we are. We are because we believe what has happened in America is not just a temporary phenomenon. It reflects broader change in political culture and also in American society itself—a feeling that America has not benefited from the current global order that it had put in place, and it is not prepared to do as much of the heavy lifting to keep the order going. And I think that goes beyond this administration.

没错，我们认同后者。我们认为，美国当前的状况并非暂时现象，它反映出美国政治文化乃至社会层面的广泛变革 —— 美国人觉得，自己建立的现有全球秩序并未让自身受益，因此不愿再为维护这一秩序承担过多重任。而且我认为，这种趋势不会因政府换届而改变。

Is some of this sentiment justified? Does Donald Trump have a point when he says that the US has been taken for granted, that it's been taken advantage of?

这种情绪是否有一定合理性？特朗普称美国被轻视、被利用，他的说法有道理吗？

Some of it may well be justified in the sense that there may well have been free riders, so to speak, and countries do need to do more to invest in their own economic security and also stability. We do that in Singapore. We have never taken it for granted. We have consistently invested year by year in our own security and our defense, and also facilitated America's presence in the region.

某种程度上是有合理性的，比如确实存在 “搭便车” 的国家，各国确实需要加大投入，保障自身经济安全与稳定。新加坡一直是这么做的，我们从没有想过可以坐享其成，每年都会持续投入资源建设国防与安全，同时也为美国在该地区的存在提供便利。

以下是各国网友的评论：

lilhaxxor
Singapore politicians are really exceptional. It's as if they are chosen based on competency.

新加坡的政客确实很优秀。他们仿佛是凭能力选拔出来的。

Southeastasiantraveler
What I really like about this Prime Minister is that he speaks in intelligent sentences, not sound bites. He treats this interviewer, and I suspect his citizens, as intelligent and capable of understanding complex subjects. Starting this interview by describing our times as 'post American', while true, shocked me that such leaders regard this as a given, and irreversible.

我特别喜欢这位总理的一点是，他说话条理清晰、有见地，不是说些碎片化的口号。他把这位采访者，我猜还有他的国民，都当成聪明人，觉得大家有能力理解复杂的议题。采访一开始，他就把我们这个时代称作“后美国时代”——这话虽然是事实，但看到这类领导人把这当成既定事实、认为它不可逆转，我还是挺意外的。

clinzwalkon
What a very eloquent and intelligent man. I’m not Singaporean and i find myself being proud.

这个人表达流畅又有智慧，真了不起。我不是新加坡人，却莫名为他感到自豪。

AchilleXF1
Straightforward answers to straightforward questions. Competence, wit and even humour. Where do they find those leaders?

问得直接，答得也直接。有能力、有风趣，还带点幽默感。他们到底是从哪儿找到这样优秀的领导人的啊？

camillac.s.279
Just here to remember that the leader is elected by the citizens.. and “ reflect “ the citizens.

我就是想提一句：这位领导人是民众选出来的，他也“反映”着民众的意愿。

josephhealy7622
PM Wong is a breath of fresh air as a leader. Highly articulate and concise expressing great knowledge and wisdom.

黄总理作为领导人，让人感觉耳目一新。他表达能力极强，说话简洁，还透着丰富的学识和智慧。

DD-sr9xm
The singaporean government puts incredible work into their analysis and decision making. They are also extremely practical. I think it’s a very good time to listen to what they have to say. Thank you for this interview.

新加坡政府在分析和决策上花了极大的功夫。他们还特别务实。

TofuTeo
Fun fact, Lawrence Wong has a golden retriever he loves dearly. Genuinely kind guy who seeks to serve people altruistically, from what I’ve seen. You can also find videos online of him jamming with his humble band made up of other senior citizens. Singapore is fortunate to have him as their leader.

说个有趣的事：黄循财有一只特别疼爱的金毛寻回犬。就我所见，他是个真心善良的人，一心想无私地为民众服务。你还能在网上找到他的视频——他和其他老年人组成了一支朴素的乐队，一起即兴演奏。新加坡有他当领导人，真是幸运。

WilliamChoong-z9e
What more can i say, knowledgeable leader with deep understanding of the situation the country is in, true believer in working together with like-minded partners are important to move forward, No isolation / power hungry talk, calm and compose. Applauded to PM Wong.

我还能说什么呢？他是个有学识的领导人，对国家现状有深刻的理解；他坚信和理念相近的伙伴合作对发展很重要，从不说搞孤立、争权力的话，还总是沉着冷静。为黄总理鼓掌。

NjrewiczX
A well spoken politician. He's a great Asian treasure. Singapore, you're going to be alright.

这位政客说话很得体。他是亚洲的一大瑰宝。新加坡，你一定会好好的。

ingwey
As a Singaporean, I really respect and am proud of our PM Wong.

作为新加坡人，我真的很尊重我们的黄总理，也为他感到自豪。

CamDom
Yeah you should, as a European he was very refreshing to listen.

是啊，你就该自豪。作为欧洲人，听他说话感觉特别清爽。

a_macaulay
You should, as a Canadian I am very impressed with your PM, but shouldn't be surpised as I learn more about Singapore.

你是该自豪。作为加拿大人，我对你国总理印象很深——不过随着我对新加坡了解越多，也觉得这并不意外。

brandenongkp
This island may be tiny, yet it is quite significant in many respects.

这个小岛或许面积很小，但在很多方面都相当有影响力。

MeEntertainmentJo_876
It went from being one of the poorest places in the world when it was kicked out of Malaysia to now having higher GDP per capita than the US. Its really incredible how much Singapore has done in just 60 years.

新加坡当初被马来西亚逐出时，还是世界上最贫穷的地区之一；如今它的人均GDP已经超过了美国。短短60年里，新加坡能取得这么大的成就，实在太不可思议了。

jjl4381
@MeEntertainmentJo_876 One day, Malaysia will take it back... why not ? Lol

总有一天，马来西亚会把它收回来的，为什么不收回来呢，哈哈。

Ilubcats0908
@jjl4381 cause the saf exst. All Singaporean males and PR are ready to fight. We didn’t go through 2 years of training for nothing. NS is 12 years of our lives. 2 years full time and reserve for the next 10 with mandatory recall every single year for at least 1 month.

新加坡有武装部队啊。所有新加坡男性公民和永久居民都做好了战斗准备。我们两年的训练可不是白受的。国民服役（NS）占了我们12年的人生：两年全职服役，之后10年服预备役，而且每年都必须回营集训，至少一个月。

jrpark05
True, but if they don't reverse course within the next 10 years they will become a mainland China backwater like Hong Kong. They are playing with fire: Lee Kwan Yew dealt with the mainland when the mainland was very weak and had its hand out, but now the mainland is much stronger and influential. They would love nothing more than to install a viceroy (openly or by stealth) in that financial powerhouse and its geographic position along the Malacca Strait.

这话没错，但如果未来10年他们不改变路线，就会变成像香港那样受中国大陆影响的地区。

他们这是在玩火：李光耀当年和中国大陆打交道时，大陆还很弱，还需要寻求帮助；但现在大陆实力强多了，影响力也大得多。大陆巴不得在新加坡这个金融重镇——还有它马六甲海峡的地理位置上——安插一个总督（不管是明着来还是暗地里）。

dthomas99
Imagine if 50% of the world have leaders like those in Singapore, competent, realistic, not corrupted, have the interest of its country at heart. Singapore stands as the examplar and hope for other countries.

试想一下，如果世界上50%的国家都有新加坡这样的领导人——有能力、务实、不腐败、把国家利益放在心上。新加坡就是其他国家的典范和希望啊。

pushkarkhanal4340
What a shrewd PM. The level of knowledge, calmness and diplomatic deft in his talk speaks volume about the country he runs.

这位总理真精明。他说话时展现出的学识水平、沉稳态度和外交手腕，充分说明了他治理的国家是什么样的。

GeeTadpole
PM Wong is an exceptional professional, what a great example for a measured and insightful state head.

黄总理是位出色的专业人士，堪称沉稳且有洞察力的国家元首典范。

nefeli28-z4h
It‘s so true, the management of human resources is the hardest, especially as a leader of a country. I am surprised he is so honest, unlike typical politicians.

这话太对了，人力资源管理是最难的，尤其是作为一个国家的领导人。他这么坦诚，真让人意外，不像一般的政客。

ayuvanjava2071
The calibre of Singapore's PM has remained unbeatable all these years. He really knows his stuff, his country, and communicates very clearly. High respect to you, Sir. Watching from the UK, I wish we had such a quality of PM in charge. Really wish we had never left Singapore for the UK 15 years ago, and really wish we could come back to live there again. Majulah Singapura.

这些年来，新加坡总理的水准一直无可匹敌。他确实懂行、了解自己的国家，表达也非常清晰。向您致以崇高的敬意，先生。我在英国观看，真希望我们英国也有这样水准的总理掌权。真后悔15年前离开新加坡去了英国，也真心希望能再回到那里生活。前进吧，新加坡。

kevitamaster-brewkombucha5472
A country’s leader does not just decide when and who to declare war with or what domestic orders he wishes to enforce on his people, but he is also the country’s biggest diplomat and peacemaker. This man is a treasure from what I’ve gathered in this video alone. I’m not aware of his other policies but this level of competency, strategic thinking, and friendly demeanor are beyond valuable to a country. Thank you sir for your insights, as an American this is an eye opener for me.

一个国家的领导人，不只是决定何时向谁宣战、想在国内推行什么政策，他还得是国家最大的外交官和调解人。这个人就是个宝。我不清楚他其他的政策，但这种能力水平、战略思维和友善态度，对一个国家来说太宝贵了。感谢您的见解，作为美国人，这让我大开眼界。

alfaeco15
Singapore politicians. An example of rationality.

新加坡的从政者，是理性的典范。

tkyap2524
The leaders of this country mean what they say and say what they mean.

这个国家的领导人，说话算数，也直言不讳。

svarghese9424
It seems he’s not a politician. He speaks like a Management guru or an economist. Rare quality we see among world leaders. Good luck Singapore.

他看起来不像是政客。说话倒像个管理大师或者经济学家。这种特质在世界领导人里很少见。新加坡好运。

FishingSGsWild
being a Sporean.. there were only 2 best options.. 1st was Mr Tharman Shanmugaratnam. The other who quickly rose to prominence during the COVID years was Our current PM...Mr Lawrence Wong. Excellent men to have continued to serve Singapore and its citizens in the best possible manner especially now that the political world is so chaotic and uncertain.

作为新加坡人，当时只有两个最佳人选。第一个是尚达曼先生（Tharman Shanmugaratnam）。另一个就是在新冠疫情期间迅速崭露头角的现任总理——黄循财先生。有这两位优秀的人继续为新加坡和民众服务，真是太好了，尤其是现在政治局势这么混乱、这么不确定。

suprflyification
Hope it bodes well for Singaporeans. The people I met there were incredible. They have set the standard for what a modern society should be.

希望这对新加坡民众是个好兆头。我在那里遇到的人都很棒。他们为“现代社会该是什么样”树立了标杆。

mcs131313
Awesome interview. He’s so pragmatic. Diplomatically airs his views, but doesn’t focus on blame or cry foul. Just talks about the challenges moving forward and looking to proactively address them.

他太务实了。他会用外交辞令表达自己的观点，但不会一味指责或抱怨。只谈未来面临的挑战，还想着要主动应对这些挑战。

rvajna
We need a PM like this in Australia.

澳大利亚也需要这样一位总理。

raymondschembri5042
In Singapore there is no opposition.

新加坡没有反对党。

n99w79
The key is to attract talents to run the elections. Constituents need to be clear minded and pragmatic in choosing their leaders. I think in the future it will be parliament inviting talents to be presidents, like what companies do to their CEOs.

关键是要吸引人才来参选。选民在选择领导人时，得头脑清醒、务实。我觉得未来可能会是议会邀请人才来担任总统，就像公司聘请CEO那样。

solaris5655
Singapore has developed a unique style of politics over decades—it's one-party dominant, and their elections don't function like a simple party swap every five years. Instead, the voting results act like a citizen report card on the ruling party. For example, the 61.24% votes in 2020 was seen as a failed grade, leading Lee Kuan Yew and Goh Chok Tong to step down from elders’ influence, while the 73% result for the 1992 by-election was considered a distinction grade for Goh Chok Tong. After 60 years, it’s practically impossible for the opposition to take over, since they lack a track record—and you cannot build a track record without ever having the chance to govern (the classic chicken and egg problem). I don’t think Australia could accept this one-party, report card style of voting.

几十年来，新加坡形成了独特的政治模式——一党主导，选举不像其他国家那样是每五年简单换党执政。相反，选举结果更像是民众给执政党打的“成绩单”。比如2020年大选，执政党得票率61.24%，被视为“不及格”，这导致李光耀和吴作栋退出了元老领导层；而1992年补选时73%的得票率，则被看作是吴作栋的“优秀成绩”。60年过去了，反对党几乎不可能掌权，因为他们没有执政记录——而没有执政机会，就不可能积累执政记录（这是典型的“先有鸡还是先有蛋”的难题）。我觉得澳大利亚不会接受这种一党主导、“成绩单式”的选举模式。

Rheault101
It's a breath of fresh air to see politicians with integrity and competence.

能看到有操守、有能力的政客，真是让人耳目一新。

harrykekgmail
The quality of the PM of Singapore: most importantly, not a sniff of corruption; highly educated and with good working experience and NOT tainted/affected/believing in religious dogmas.

新加坡总理的特质：最重要的是，毫无腐败迹象；受过高等教育，工作经验丰富，而且不受宗教教条影响、不迷信宗教教条。

jamie1128888
Since it’s still relatively young city state, Singapore has to rely on humility and honesty to survive and stay out of geopolitics. Hopefully, that approach earns it some respect and understanding from the major powers.

新加坡作为一个相对年轻的城市国家，必须靠谦逊和坦诚求生存，还要避开地缘政治纷争。希望这种方式能让它赢得大国的一些尊重和理解。

libervitaexaltis4551
I'm Indian and in Singapore now for studies. He's right. Prices for so many essential goods have started to shoot up over the last week, in a country that's already very expensive to. The world is definitely changing, and nations like Singapore will feel it first. But in time, the effects will trickle down too. For almost a century we have been in a America/Russia dominated world order, which came as a result of 2 centuries of European hegemony. And that order is completely shifting suddenly and overnight, along with the poles of power. The new world will be different, but what will really hurt is adapting to it, and changing so many ways in which we do things.

我是印度人，现在在新加坡留学。他说得对。过去一周，很多生活必需品的价格都开始猛涨，而新加坡本来就已经是个消费很高的国家了。世界肯定在变，像新加坡这样的国家会最先感受到。但假以时日，这种影响也会逐渐扩散到其他地方。近一个世纪以来，我们一直处于美俄主导的世界秩序中，而这种秩序的形成，是欧洲两个世纪霸权的结果。如今，随着权力格局的变化，这种秩序一夜之间就发生了彻底的转变。新世界会不一样，但真正难的是适应这种变化，还要改变我们做事的很多方式。

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