中国军队：我们正向你们进发

China’s Military: ‘We’re Coming for You’

中国军队：“我们正向你们进发”

WHEN CHINA STAGED ITS MILITARY PARADE in Beiing last week, much of the commentary in the West focused on the political optics: Vladimir Putin was a prominent guest, joined by Kim Jong-un, Narendra Modi, and even representatives from NATO countries. While the list of attendees is important, as a former soldier, I was focused on something else. The message of this parade wasn’t just about political power, but about military power: the scale of the Chinese armed forces, the pace of their modernization, and the capabilities they now bring to bear.

My first encounter with the People’s Liberation Army was in 1998. I was a student at the National War College, which each year sent small teams of its students—officers and diplomats—to different parts of the world to assess regional power. I pleaded to go to China, largely because my earlier tours were exclusively in Europe and the Middle East. I got my wish, our group of one officer from each of the services, plus a diplomat, prepared intensively for months.

A retired Navy captain who was an expert on China was our instructor. He taught us everything he could about the PLA, as well as about the culture of the nation and how we might be treated during our many stops. On our tour, our most important visit was to Naning, home to China’s war college, where we received a briefing from their students and faculty on the PLA’s twenty-year modernization plan. That evening, over beers at our hotel bar, every one of us Americans had the same thought: Their goals were far too ambitious. They wouldn’t be able to pull it off, at least not so fast.

上周中国在北京举行阅兵式时，西方的大部分评论都聚焦于其政治表象：弗拉基米尔·普京是主要嘉宾，一同出席的还有金正恩、纳伦德拉·莫迪，甚至还有北约国家的代表。尽管出席者名单举足轻重，但作为一名退伍军人，我的关注点却有所不同。这场阅兵所传递的信息，不仅关乎政治实力，更关乎军事实力——中国军队的规模、现代化进程的速度，以及他们如今所具备的作战能力。

我与中国人民解放军的初次接触是在1998年。当时我是美国国防大学的一名学员，该校每年会派遣小型学员团队（成员包括军官和外交官）前往世界不同地区评估区域力量。我主动请求前往中国，很大程度上是因为我之前的任务地点全集中在欧洲和中东。我的请求得到了批准，我们的团队由各军种各一名军官以及一名外交官组成，为此进行了长达数月的深入准备。

我们的指导老师是一位退役海军上校，同时也是中国问题专家。他向我们详尽传授了关于中国人民解放军的所有知识，还介绍了中国的文化，以及我们在多站行程中可能受到的接待方式。在此次行程中，最重要的一站是前往中国国防大学所在地——南京。在那里，中国国防大学的学员和教员向我们介绍了中国人民解放军的二十年现代化规划。当晚，在酒店的酒吧里喝着啤酒时，我们每一个美国人都有一个相同的想法：他们的目标太过宏大了，恐怕难以实现，至少不会这么快实现。

Then, for the next two decades and more, we watched. From 1998 to today, China has not only met its goals but usually exceeded them. In some ways, they are ahead of the schedules set out in subsequent modernization programs. They have overhauled their acquisition system, professionalized their officer corps, expanded training and exercises, and steadily modernized and up-gunned their massive force.

The PLA is now the world’s largest standing military, with roughly two million active-duty personnel. Its official defense budget is about $250 billion annually, though some analysts believe the real number, including spending on military forces outside the official defense budget and adjustments for labor costs and purchasing power, could be closer to $700 billion, on par with the U.S. defense budget. The force now encompasses the full range of modern military arms—land forces, a large and growing navy with multiple aircraft carriers (they had none back in 1998), an increasingly sophisticated air force, a missile force, and specialized units for space, cyber, and information warfare. Global indexes of military power consistently rank China behind only the United States.

China also now possesses a robust and growing nuclear arsenal, giving it a full set of strategic deterrent options. The parade in Beiing made this visible: nuclear-capable bombers and new, never-before-seen road-mobile intercontinental ballistic missiles. For obvious reasons, China’s nuclear missile submarines didn’t parade across T Square, but they complete China’s nuclear triad. Only a handful of countries in history have ever had that capability. This was meant as much for Washington as it was for the Chinese domestic audiences and their VIP guests. The Department of Defense projects that China will have approxmately 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030. (Russia and the United States each have about 1,700.)

在那之后的二十多年里，我们一直密切关注着。从 1998 年至今，中国不仅实现了既定目标，而且在多数情况下还超额完成。在某些方面，中国的发展甚至超出了后续现代化规划中设定的进度。中国对军事采购体系进行了全面改革，推动军官队伍走向专业化，扩大了军事训练与演习规模，并持续推进规模庞大的军队现代化建设，提升武器装备水平。

如今，中国人民解放军是全球规模最大的现役军队，现役军人约 200 万。中国官方公布的年度国防预算约为 2500 亿美元，但部分分析人士认为，若将官方国防预算之外的军事相关支出、劳动力成本及购买力调整等因素纳入考量，实际军费数额可能接近 7000 亿美元，与美国国防预算规模相当。目前，中国军队已涵盖各类现代化军种 —— 陆军、拥有多艘航母且规模持续扩大的海军（1998 年时中国尚无航母）、技术水平日益先进的空军、火箭军，以及负责太空、网络和信息作战的专业部队。全球军力指数始终将中国列为仅次于美国的军事力量。

中国如今还拥有规模庞大且持续发展的核武库，具备完整的战略威慑手段。此次北京阅兵便直观展现了这一点：可携带核武器的轰炸机，以及从未公开亮相过的新型公路机动洲际弹道导弹。出于显而易见的原因，中国的战略导弹核潜艇无法驶过天安门广场，但它们与其他核力量共同构成了中国的 “三位一体” 核打击能力。纵观历史，仅有少数国家具备这一能力。这一展示，既是做给中国国内民众和贵宾看的，更是做给美国政府看的。美国国防部预测，到 2030 年，中国将拥有约 1000 枚核弹头（俄罗斯和美国目前各拥有约 1700 枚核弹头）。

以下是美国雅虎网友的评论：

Oscar
What the USA also needs to plan for is the re-establishment of a war-time industrial production complex. True, that China has modernized and built-up at a dizzying speed. But the US has mostly faciilitated that and STILL controls that. Don't think the tariffs are just about trade. The tariffs are absolutely about slowing the Chinese down. The US should've never allowed such a belligerent country to benefit so much from their consumption. Yes, I said belligerent because China has backed almost every American adversary since the end of WW2. Don't think that fact is simply because of ideological differences. The Chinese have played the long game since day 1 of the current regime to take any chance to weaken and counter US power. The Chinese awakening that the US mostly facilitated lays squarely on naive and greedy American ideas.

美国还需要规划的，是重建战时工业生产体系。没错，中国确实以惊人的速度实现了现代化，实力也不断增强。但这在很大程度上是美国推动的，而且美国至今仍掌控着局面。别以为关税只和贸易有关。关税的核心目的，就是要拖慢中国的发展脚步。美国当初就不该让这样一个好战的国家，从自己的消费市场中获取这么多好处。我之所以说“好战”，是因为二战结束后，中国几乎支持了美国的每一个对手。别觉得这只是意识形态差异导致的。中国一直在打长期算盘，不放过任何削弱、对抗美国实力的机会。美国在很大程度上推动了“中国崛起”，而这一切的根源，正是美国自身天真又贪婪的想法。

chachach
I don't know how China is going to use their new toys, or how well they will perform in real battle. But I'm an optimist and always look at the bright side. So far, the Chinese military has not blown up any small boat in international water killing 11 people on board. That is a good sign.

我不知道中国会怎么用这些新武器，也不知道它们在实战中表现会如何。但我是个乐观的人，总喜欢看事情好的一面。至少到目前为止，中国军队还没有在国际水域炸过任何小船，也没有造成11人死亡的情况。这是个好迹象。

Michael
Why would China blow up its bread and butter

中国为什么要砸自己的饭碗呢？

IAM
We stopped Japan ……from taking over CHINA

是我们阻止了日本侵占中国。

Helloworld
...and we're busy building the most advanced transgender bathrooms.

我们却在忙着建最先进的跨性别者卫生间。

Brandon
No, Trump is busy attacking his own citizens.

不对，特朗普正忙着攻击自己国家的公民呢。

Sole
China has already won a great victory. Trotting out weapons and personnel and making a great show works to undermine the confidence of any opposing nation's military, (think RE Lee and how he buffaloed the Union for many engagements). At least Mr. Trump can do an executive order for white flags to be waved just like the ones he is currently handing out to Ukraine.

中国已经取得了一场重大胜利。展示武器和军队，大张旗鼓地造势，这能削弱敌对国家军队的信心（想想罗伯特·李，他在很多战役中是如何牵制联邦军的）。至少特朗普先生可以签署一道行政令，让大家挥舞白旗——就像他现在给乌克兰送白旗一样。

SC
Entire article of typical Western arrogance. China's military is already ahead of US and pulling away in lighting speed. How many hypersonic missiles in US service? none. China has it for a decade. US barely got supersonic missiles working today. How any 4th generation tanks in US? 0. Is F35 fully functional? nope. F22? a 1997 jet trying to complete with 2025 J20 and J35? think Motorola Flip phone vs iPhone 16. How about Gen 6 fighters? China is flying 3 or more. US's programs almost got cancelled last year, only put back on drawing board after seeing China's gen 6 flying, likely a decade behind already. How about laser? US lasers are much smaller and is there even one in active service? Last I read they cancelled all of them. Radar system -- China is putting ASEA radars on every new tank. US doesn't even have it on most Aegis warships except the first Flight III and Chinese radars are much more powerful across the board, especially on fighter jets. China controls most of the rare earth needed for these advanced weapons systems. I can go on. But almost every month there is a new Chinese weapons system that is superior than US version coming out

这整篇文章满是西方的典型傲慢。中国军力早就超过美国了，而且正以闪电速度拉开差距。美国现役的高超音速导弹有多少枚？一枚都没有。中国十年前就有这类导弹了。如今美国连超音速导弹都才勉强能用。美国有多少辆第四代坦克？零辆。F-35能完全正常作战吗？不能。那F-22呢？一款1997年的机型，想和2025年的歼-20、歼-35比？想想摩托罗拉翻盖手机和iPhone 16的差距就知道了。第六代战斗机呢？中国已有3款或更多机型在试飞。美国的六代机项目去年差点被取消，直到看到中国六代机试飞，才重新提上设计日程，现在很可能已经落后十年了。

激光武器方面呢？美国的激光武器体型小得多，而且有哪怕一款投入现役了吗？我上次看到的消息是，他们把所有激光武器项目都取消了。雷达系统方面——中国每辆新型坦克都装了有源相控阵雷达（ASEA雷达）。而美国，除了首批“阿利·伯克”级Flight III型驱逐舰，大部分“宙斯盾”舰都还没装这种雷达。而且中国的雷达整体性能都强得多，尤其是战机上的雷达。这些先进武器系统所需的稀土，大部分都由中国掌控。这样的例子我还能举很多。而且几乎每个月，中国都会有比美国同类型号更先进的新型武器系统问世。

Kevin
While I do agree with most of that, the U.S. has things that well, we aren’t so defenseless. Star Trek is behind in tech

虽然大部分观点我都同意，但美国也不是毫无还手之力。他们还是有些拿得出手的技术的，《星际迷航》里的科技都比不上呢。

Brandon
Trump wants to attack Americans more than China does.

特朗普想攻击美国人的心思，比想攻击中国还重。

ChengTai
America was great prior to Trump 2016. It was the light on the hill and an example of civilization for the world. The statue of liberty was seen on scholar desktop all over the world. Obama speech brought tears to the poor, oppressed and discriminated. China was America's page boy and economic partner, a creation of Nixon's vision of a peaceful world. Trump changed it all. And now it's fascism, doom and gloom. Decline, lost of status and influence.

2016年特朗普上台前，美国还挺厉害的。它曾是“山巅之光”，是世界文明的典范。世界各地学者的电脑桌面上，都能看到自由女神像。奥巴马的演讲，能让穷人、受压迫者和受歧视者落泪。中国那时是美国的“小跟班”，也是经济伙伴，这是尼克松“和平世界”构想的成果。特朗普改变了这一切。现在的美国，满是法西斯主义、末日气息和低迷氛围。实力衰退，地位和影响力也丢了。

JR
Looks like a significant amount plywood and paint and cardboard went into the production of this parade. I think we stand a chance if they’re going to be fighting with cardboard trucks and missles. Not otherwise though.

这场阅兵看着用了不少胶合板、油漆和硬纸板。要是他们用硬纸板做的卡车和导弹打仗，我觉得我们还有机会。不然的话，就难说了。

michkin
just repent and have Lord Jesus God creator of all as your main focus and all else will be a blurr, and never fear death for you have a eternal kingdom awaiting you when you do his will and not your will.

只要忏悔，把创造万物的主耶稣上帝当作核心信仰，其他一切都会变得不重要。别害怕死亡，因为当你遵行他的旨意、而非自己的意愿时，有一个永恒的国度在等着你。

MarkA
I love this war propaganda! What would other countries think of the US if they applied that same logic to our trillion dollar a year war budgets and countless bases around the world?

我可太“喜欢”这种战争宣传了！要是其他国家用同样的逻辑，来看我们美国每年上万亿美元的军费预算，还有遍布全球的无数军事基地，他们会怎么想？

ThomosD
China tends not to show hot-head or macho moves. Their strategy is more like quiet persistent moves - "Death by a 1000 cuts". Yes, China has arrived.

中国通常不会做头脑发热或逞能的事。他们的策略更像是悄无声息却持续不断的行动——也就是“千刀万剐”式的策略。没错，中国已经崛起了。

Emergent
When I watched the mighty military parade of China I was blown away. Compare that to the Trump's parade, where a single soldier was walking and holding a drone. Absolute embarrassment! China possesses the world's largest military by active personnel, with over 2 million soldiers in its People's Liberation Army (PLA)!

看到中国那场盛大的阅兵，我完全被震撼了。再看看特朗普时期的阅兵，就一个士兵走着路，手里拿着架无人机。简直太丢人了！中国拥有世界上规模最大的现役军队，中国人民解放军的现役军人超过200万！

James
Germany in the 40s tried this...tanke note how that turned out!

40年代的德国也试过这样，想想最后是什么下场！

Jim
How many megatons does it take to totally destroy the earth? I think the US already has the capability if things go really bad that the earth will no longer exst. So it doesn't matter what Russia and China have now does it?

要多少兆吨当量的武器才能彻底摧毁地球？我觉得要是情况真到了最坏的地步，美国已有能力让地球不复存在。那俄罗斯和中国现在有什么，不也就无所谓了吗？

Standfirm
Wow, that's scary. But trumb has a bigger button. He ain't afraid.

哇，这太吓人了。但特朗普有个“更大的核按钮”，他可不怕。