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如果疫情后经济复苏的赢家是少数大亨,投资者将对印度失去信心

 Investors will lose faith in India if the post-virus recovery game is won by a narrowing number of tycoons

如果疫情后经济复苏的赢家是少数大亨,投资者将对印度失去信心

By Andy Mukherjee

Two years ago, India rolled out a laudable plan to unlock the capital trapped in some of its smaller airports. But the actual outcome from privatization was less than reassuring: All six airfields put on the block went to one bidder.

两年前,印度推出了一项值得称赞的计划,解锁了困在一些小机场的资本。但是私有化的实际结果并不令人感到宽慰:所有六个待售机场都落入了一个投标者手中。

If that wasn’t enough, multiple media reports now say that Ahmedabad, Gujarat-based billionaire Gautam Adani NSE -5.92 %, an early and enthusiastic supporter of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, might also succeed in taking control of the already-privatized Mumbai airport, as well as a new one coming up on the financial center’s outskirts.

目前,多家媒体报道称,印度总理纳伦德拉•莫迪的早期热情支持者、古吉拉特邦亿万富翁高塔姆•阿达尼可能也已成功控制已经私有化的孟买机场,以及即将在这个金融中心郊区新建的机场。

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The splashy 2016 entry of tycoon Mukesh Ambani in 4G mobile was a huge boon. The richest Indian single-handedly crushed data charges for customers to 9 cents a gigabyte, the lowest in the world. But a field that once boasted a dozen players is now effectively a duopoly. The fate of a third service will be decided by a court order about how much time Vodafone Idea Ltd. has to pay its share of the $19 billion demanded by the go nment from telecom firms as past dues.

大亨穆克什•安巴尼在2016年高调进入4G移动领域,这是一个巨大的福音。这位印度首富单凭一己之力就将客户的流量收费压低至9美分/G,为全球最低。一个曾经拥有十多名玩家的领域,现在实际上是双寡头垄断。第三家电信运营商的命运将由法院裁定,即沃达丰必须缴纳政府要求电信公司缴纳的190亿美元的应交费用。

If Ambani’s vision of a carriage, content and commerce triple play is sexy enough to attract investment from the likes of Facebook Inc. and Alphabet Inc.’s Google, Adani’s ambition of owning ports, airports, railway tracks, power plants and energy distribution utilities, is humdrum but lucrative.

如果说安巴尼足以吸引Facebook和Alphabet旗下谷歌等公司的投资,那么阿达尼拥有港口、机场、铁路、发电厂和能源分配设施的雄心虽平淡无奇,但却有利可图。

The worry is that dominance by a handful of capitalists may not leave enough space for others. But then, who’s even ready or willing to compete, especially in sectors where state policy has a big role in determining winners? Barring some notable exceptions, the Indian business class is overextended, trapped in the debris of assets created with the help of syndicated loans from pliant state-run banks. Politicians even have a name for it: phone banking, where they make the calls and tell bankers to whom to give loans.

令人担忧的是,少数资本家占主导地位可能不会给其他人留下足够的空间。那么,谁准备好或愿意参与竞争,特别是在国家政策在决定赢家方面扮演重要角色的行业?

除了一些明显的例外,印度的商业阶层已经阔张过度,受困于由顺从的国有银行提供的银团贷款所创造的资产残骸之中。政客们甚至给它起了个名字:电话银行,政客们打电话告诉银行该贷款给谁。

It’s impossible to carry on this way. After the Covid-19 disruption, go nment-owned Indian banks will require as much as $28 billion in external capital over two years to raise their loss provisions on bad loans to 70% and double credit growth from last fiscal year’s abysmal 4%, according to Moody’s Investors Service. Much of this money will have to come from a go nment that can’t keep a lid on its borrowing costs. A sharp, private credit-fueled recovery for the economy appears to be out of the question.

这样下去是不可行的。根据穆迪的数据,在新冠肺炎疫情爆发后,印度政府所有的国有银行将需要在两年内获得高达280亿美元的外部资本,以将不良贷款损失拨备提高到70%,并将信贷增长率从上一财年糟透的4%提高一倍。其中大部分资金将不得不由无法控制借贷成本的政府提供。由私人信贷推动的经济大幅复苏似乎是不可能的。

以下是印度经济时报读者的评论:译者:Jessica.Wu

Rakshit Karia

Why hire such illiterate stupid moronic journalist

为什么要雇这样一个无知、愚蠢、低能的记者

 

Abhineet Sudhendra

Instead, let's hire a semi-literate massacring hate-mongerer chaiwala as the PM, and a criminal murdering goon as the HM.

我们雇了一个半文盲、屠杀成性的仇恨贩子卖茶人当总理,雇了一个杀人犯当内政部长。

 

Bv Subash

now no more lockdown, private companies will start to flourish.

现在解封了,私企将开始蓬勃发展。

 

Kumaraswamy Kademane

If this is true, hope go nment takes proper measures to curb monopoly and remain as the go nment for the growth of India

如果这是真的,希望政府采取适当措施遏制垄断,继续促进印度经济的增长

Hari Krishna Johri

On the contrary ,It appears Govt is helping to create this monopoly.

相反,政府正在帮助建立垄断。

 

Satinder Chadha

It was reported that India is being run by a group of 50 big business houses of India.

印度由50家印度大企业集团运营。

Raj Tillan

not 50 but only 5 India moved from self reliance to only Reliance

不是50家,是5家,印度从自力更生变成了完全依赖“信实”一家

 

Saidur Rahman

Now Indians are sl ve of some rich peoples.

现在印度人成了富人的奴 隶。

 

Wdias

Salute Ambani, the richest person on the earth.

向世界首富安巴尼致敬。

 

Venugopal Reddy Kalva

I’m allout supporter of Shri Na Mo, unfortunately I’m not able to digest the Monopoly of Adani & Ambani, they are wealth creators , but that should happen with their inherent strengths, not out of favouritism shown by the go nment

Someday they will eliminate NA Mo , we don’t need Congress for that

我是莫迪的支持者,但我无法接受阿达尼和安巴尼的垄断,他们是财富创造者,他们要靠自己的固有优势,而不是政府的偏袒。总有一天他们会把莫迪踢下去,不需要国大党动手。

 

Snp

Systematic loot introduced by East India Companies continues unhindered!

由东印度公司引入的系统性掠夺继续上演,畅行无阻!

 

Gomes

Absolutely true Sir.... Govt shouldn't allow a Soap manufacturer to run Airport, Auto maker top run a Hospital, Pharma comapany tp manufacture textiles and a textile comapny to manyfature Stell !!! India is slowly becoming a Banan republic...!!! Banana grower can become and Aircraft manufacturer and an Apple seller can become a Railways owner !!

政府不该让肥皂制造商去运营机场、汽车制造商运营医院、制药公司生产纺织品! ! !

印度正在慢慢变成香蕉共和国!!

香蕉种植者可以成为飞机制造商,苹果销售商可以运营铁路!!

 

 

Giri Sidda Mallaiah

This is India!

这就是印度!

 

Yash Pal

Don't worry, soon we will be atma nirbhar on very few param atmas

别担心,很快我们就能实现自力更生

 

Rahul Mohnot

Ideally to ensure transparency in bidding process and to discourage Monopoly, in bidding process there is need to put Cap that one promoter directly or indirectly cannot participate in more than 3 bids.

为了保证投标过程的透明度和抑制垄断,在投标过程中需要设定一个发起人直接或间接不能参与超过3次投标的上限。

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