India to touch $5 Trillion Economy A Year Later than Expectations

印度5万亿美元经济体目标，会比预期推迟一年达成

India’s ambition to become a $5 trillion economy by 2028 has hit a speed bump. According to the IMF, the goal will now be achieved in 2029. U.S. tariffs—currently at 50% on some Indian exports are impacting labour-intensive sectors like textiles and jewellery are already seeing export declines, and last month, the trade deficit hit a record high. India disputes the IMF’s timeline, calling it “conservative,” and says a trade deal with the U.S. is within reach. Despite the setback, India remains the world’s fastest-growing major economy, supported by reforms, digital infrastructure, and macroeconomic resilience. But risks like a weakening rupee and global shocks persist.

印度原本计划在2028年成为5万亿美元经济体的雄心遭遇阻碍。据国际货币基金组织（IMF）预测，这一目标如今将推迟至2029年实现。美国目前对部分印度出口商品征收50%的关税，正对纺织、珠宝等劳动密集型产业造成冲击——这些行业的出口已出现下滑，上月贸易逆差更是创下历史新高。

印度方面对IMF的时间线提出异议，称其“过于保守”，并表示与美国的贸易协定已近在咫尺。尽管遭遇挫折，在改革举措、数字基础设施建设以及宏观经济韧性的支撑下，印度仍是全球增长最快的主要经济体。不过，卢比走弱、全球经济冲击等风险仍持续存在。

以下是印度网友的评论：

sachith.c2784
Indian's exsted even before usa discovered, so even this light pinch can't shake India

印度早在美国被发现之前就已存在，这点小打击根本撼动不了印度

vampyrkiller
keep living in the past. Its better for everyone

别总活在过去里了，这样对谁都好

Terminator-just
@vampyrkiller bro don't be so negative be positive also I know it's very bad that india now has to wait 1 more year to reach the progress that it could have achieved one year prior if no tariffs had been imposed also india and US trade negotiation might just come fruit to deal which will instantly rise the exports making india grow at the rate that it had been predicted.

兄弟别这么消极，也得往好处想啊。我知道这确实糟——要是没有关税，印度本来能早一年达成目标，现在得多等一年

但印美贸易谈判说不定很快就有结果了，一旦达成协议，出口马上就能涨，印度就能回到之前预测的增长速度

vampyrkiller
@Terminator-just a reasonable person needs to be neither positive nor negative just have to identify problems and work on them same goes for countries

一个理性的人不该盲目乐观也不该全盘消极。关键是找出问题、解决问题，国家也是一样的道理

Terminator-just
@vampyrkiller it's good that you are trying to spread awareness that this development is not good and should be taken seriously / not be taken lightly but think if you WERE on India's position. at one side you have trump a crazy individual who runs his country like a company solely on profit and which is bound to doom in future which is also going around doing unfair deals with countries, at another side you have an expansionist co unist china which seeks to takes another's land and is bound to rise in future to become world's most powerful country in future and which is also opressing it's own people . You also have countries like Japan/ germany which don't want to repeat the same mistake as they did with china once of transferring the technology of theirs as they have been copied by chinese and don't want to replicate that with india they don't want another china level country and that's why they don't support us

你提醒大家这事得重视、不能掉以轻心，这挺好的。但你换位思考下，要是你站在印度的立场会怎么样？

一边是特朗普，这疯子把国家当公司管，眼里只有利润，未来肯定要完蛋，还到处跟别国搞不公平交易

另一边是中国，总想抢占别人的土地，未来肯定会崛起成世界超级大国

还有日本、德国这些国家，他们以前把技术转让给中国，结果全被抄了，现在不想再犯同样的错

他们不想再出现一个中国级别的国家，所以才不支持我们

suman0055
Whatever be the tariff slaps from Trump, India will reach out to world's third largest economy before the projected time

不管特朗普怎么加关税，印度都会提前达成世界第三大经济体的目标

Mocking_Bird_IM
Global economy is in slowdown, not just India

全球经济都在放缓，又不是只有印度

arkabanerjee1627
Reforms, privatisation must

必须推进改革和私有化

khyatikothari4492
India does not care about US sponsored narrative to pressure India on trade deal. Both US and IMF are now a piece of garbage

印度才不在乎美国搞的那套舆论施压，想逼我们签贸易协议

美国和IMF现在就是一堆垃圾

lemarcoX
stop trying to appease the us then.

那倒是别再讨好美国了啊

defence3355
Imf is nothing more than a platform to keep pakistan floating

IMF说白了就是个让巴基斯坦续命的平台

muhammaduddin9268
Germany hit 5.13 Trillion GDP and population 80 million good standard of living and the UK recently hit 4 Trillion economy population 67 million not bad.

德国GDP达到了5.13万亿美元，人口8000万，生活水平很高

英国最近也突破了4万亿美元GDP，人口6700万，也不错

a1_toka09
Where are you from?? Which your country??
Yes India gdp per capita law but same time
India now steel fastest growing economy in the world ! We capable achieve 2030, 3rd largest economy position

你来自哪里？哪个国家的？没错，印度人均GDP是低，但与此同时，印度现在是全球增长最快的经济体！我们有能力在2030年前成为世界第三大经济体

jimsmith-i3u
Diversify all exports to other countries so there is nothing to tariff.

把出口市场分散到其他国家去

这样美国就没东西可加税了

leichen8000
China beats India by actual accomplishments.
India hits back by win-ology.

中国靠实打实的成就碾压印度

印度靠“胜利学”嘴硬反击

SaikatB
In the long run it would be positive.. because of the tariff india is making and trying to make so many deals with so many countries and blocks..Indians by nature need timely and untimely jolts like these to keep us moving...or we get lax. And history proves that...evreytime there was a crisis, India accelerated its growth..1991, 2000s, 2008, 2020, 2022.

从长远来看，这反而是件好事。因为关税问题，印度正在和很多国家、地区洽谈并签署协议

印度人的天性就是这样，需要时不时来个刺激才能往前走，不然就会松懈

历史已经证明了这一点——每次遇到危机，印度都会加速增长

1991年、2000年代、2008年、2020年、2022年都是如此

devendrabendkhale6902
Not gonna happen in next 100 years

未来100年都不可能发生

yiminwu7549
India is the #1 superpower in the world. Love from China.

印度是世界第一超级大国！来自中国的爱

yst36
weak currency means india doesn't produce enough valueable goods

货币疲软说明印度生产不出足够多的高价值商品

thomasrogers9146
INDIA NEEDS TO DEVELOP AND INVEST ITS DOMESTIC MARKET.. THE AVERAGE SALARY OF AN INDIAN IS AROUND $2,000 DOLLARS COMPARED TO CHINA WITH $13,000 AND RISING. HAVING 1.4 BILLION PEOPLE MEANS NOTHING IF THEY ARE POOR TO CONSUME THE GOODS A NATION PRODUCES. INSTEAD OF PRETENDING TO BE A SUPER POWER WHY NOT FOCUS ON FIRST BUILDING YOUR MIDDLE CLASS INFRASTRUCTURE EDUCATION HEALTH CARE AND POVERTY ELEMINATION

印度得好好发展和投资国内市场.印度人的平均工资大概只有2000美元，而中国已经达到13000美元，还在涨

如果14亿人都穷得买不起本国生产的商品，人口多也没用

与其装成超级大国，不如先专注于培育中产阶级、建设基础设施、发展教育和医疗、消除贫困

sanjaymegavath5232
By The Way! Who IS the master of IMF, UN, World Bank and etc... so called Multilateral Forums?

顺便问一句！IMF、联合国、世界银行这些所谓的多边论坛，幕后老板到底是谁？

wandefoo
Indians like to plan far ahead

印度人就喜欢做长远规划

Vsps48
Whatever the new factors you come up with daily, 6.2% for a develo economy economy with gdp percapita not even 3k$ is a joke. A huge economy like china is growing at 5.2% at their weakest phase and are the most affected by the US tariffs.

不管你们每天找什么新借口，一个人均GDP还不到3000美元的发展中国家，6.2%的增长率就是个笑话

像中国这样的大国，就算在最疲软的阶段还能保持5.2%的增长，而且他们受美国关税的影响最大

leichen8000
GDP per capita of Tib is now about 4.5X as India.

现在中国西 藏地区的人均GDP大概是印度的4.5倍

arshiclacker9282
We have to throw out this government. It has made housing 5 times more unaffordable than even US. It has made economic disparity among highest in the world. Taxes are collected like developed countries but our Infra is 50 years behind them. People dont realize what a disaster is being created in India. When it explodes Indian economy will actually die.

我们必须推番现在的印度政府，它让房价变得比美国还贵5倍，普通人根本买不起

它让印度的贫富差距成了世界上最大的之一

收税的时候跟发达国家一样狠，但我们的基础设施比他们落后50年

人们根本没意识到印度正在酝酿一场灾难

一旦爆发，印度经济就真的完了

AlphaM-4u
I am yet to see an honest assessment of Indian economy in Macro level and Micro level. Only thing that is always said is how good India is. This is to stroke the ego of the uneducated poor Indian to try to suppress the inferiority complex and flame the hubris. Then Modi can win again.
The reality is about 1 billion people are fed by the government and are adjectively poor. Most of them are illiterate. Indian youth unemployment is so high.
I can go on and on. But that the point is that I would like to see an honest assessment of the full story of positives and negatives as far as the economy is concurred.

我至今没见过对印度经济的宏观和微观诚实评估，人们只会说印度有多好，这都是为了迎合那些没受过教育的穷人的自尊心，试图压制他们的自卑感，同时煽动自大情绪

这样莫迪就能再次当选了。事实上，大约10亿人靠政府救济生活，极度贫困

他们大多是文盲，印度的青年失业率高得吓人，我还能说很多很多

但关键是，我希望能看到对印度经济全面、诚实的评估，既说优点，也说缺点

DinaNaat-b7g
According to Bollywood news India is giving loan to IMF and America

根据宝莱坞新闻，印度正在给IMF和美国放贷呢

RockNRoll-r9k
India is unstoppable under Modi’s administration. World know and haters don’t agree.

在莫迪政府的领导下，印度势不可挡

全世界都知道，只有黑子们不承认

mutafeng9904
"Here we go with the excuses again. Look at the Southeast Asian countries, look at China's growth rate and GDP per capita."

又开始找借口了，看看东南亚国家，再看看中国的增长率和人均GDP

Libra-p6b
Modi: the rupee is at record low but it is a miracle that there is no inflation. That is how I am able to claim high growth rates

莫迪：卢比汇率创历史新低，但神奇的是没有通货膨胀

我就是靠这个才能宣称高增长率

august3777
Air India needs a billion dollars.

印度航空还需要10亿美元资金

strawboi
What about GDP per capital - bottom 3 in Asia 1/3 of Thai and 1/5 of Malay

那人均GDP呢？在亚洲排倒数第三

只有泰国的1/3，马来西亚的1/5

floralyt4263
India has the billionaire capital of asia what are you saying makes no sense india is recovering we still have a long way to make, can I ask where does thai and malay stand in space?

印度有亚洲最多的亿万富翁，你说的根本没道理

印度正在复苏，我们还有很长的路要走

我倒想问，泰国和马来西亚在太空领域能排上号吗？

johnh.backensto5416
Why doesn't India ask Nvidia for a $5T loan?

印度怎么不向英伟达借5万亿美元呢？

varghesevattoly7477
We all know what is actually impacting India's growth.a bunch of Illiterate Idiots!! Jai Hind.

我们都知道真正影响印度增长的是什么——一群文盲蠢货！印度必胜！

SanatKumar-wg7fn
IMF is having some very strong stuff
after 7.8% in q1 and q2 is in between 7-7.5% ( poll by economists of Indian banks)
By which math do they think that the full year growth will be 6.2%

IMF怕不是嗑嗨了吧，一季度增长率7.8%，二季度经济学家预测在7%-7.5%（印度银行经济学家调查）

他们到底按什么算法，算出全年增长率只有6.2%？

jkc3738
If 85% of a country's population is engaged in the informal economy... how can you accurately calculate that country's GDP? If you look at Google Street View... you'll find that India looks worse than a country with a GDP per capita of less than 2,000

如果一个国家85%的人口都在非正式经济领域工作，怎么可能准确计算出它的GDP？

你去看看谷歌街景就知道了，印度看起来比人均GDP不到2000美元的国家还穷

ShadapEmdor-nf7hg
IMF is weapon of US.

IMF就是美国的武器

wewa7329
How come India's growth is 6.8%, but it can add trion in its GDP, in just one to two years but china growths at 5.0% since 2021 it is still 18tr GDP until today I wonder why? And how?

为什么印度增长率6.8%，一两年就能增加1万亿美元GDP

而中国自2021年以来增长率5.0%，至今GDP还是18万亿美元？

我想知道这是为什么？怎么做到的？

chandra_has
The hate we are receiving at an all time high.... In all countries... due to a lot of illegal immigrants and fake certificates.... A lot of UP, Bihar, and Punjab guys spoiling the image internationally

我们在全世界受到的仇恨达到了历史最高点

都是因为很多非法移民和假证书的问题

很多北方邦、比哈尔邦和旁遮普邦的人在国际上败坏了印度的形象

silafaupaulmeredith7251
Tariffs are hurting every country. In 2024 the largest increase in nominal terms to GDP was still China but is was lower than expected However China was still closing the gap between US and China in nominal GDP in USD BUT GDP n PPP China increased even more to now 24% larger than US which is more accurate

关税伤害的是每个国家，2024年，名义GDP增长最多的还是中国，虽然比预期低

但以美元计价的名义GDP，中美之间的差距仍在缩小。而按购买力平价（PPP）计算，中国的GDP增长更快，现在已经比美国高24%了，这才是更准确的衡量标准

enuganti
Nothing affects the growth because India is a consumer market with 70% growth that comes from domestic consumption, shields its growth from the international economic turbulence.

没什么能影响印度的增长，因为印度是消费市场，70%的增长来自国内消费，可以免受国际经济动荡的影响

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