How Vulnerable Will Indian Economy Be in 2026?

2026年，印度经济会有多脆弱？

Prof Arun Kumar says India's current fragility is caused by uncertainty around the trade deal with US as well as persistent weakness in domestic economy.

阿伦·库马尔教授表示，印度当前经济之所以脆弱，根源在于与美国的贸易协议前景不明，同时国内经济持续疲软。

以下是印度网友的评论：

ali6369
The only Indian economist who has so far made sense to me

这是唯一一个我至今觉得说话靠谱的印度经济学家

nirjharbiswal876
Great discussion. Trying to analyse and bring out the true picture in this era of amritkaal is really brave and praiseworthy

在印度所谓的黄金时代，敢站出来分析、还原真相，真的又勇敢又值得点赞

drtusharkantinayak7523
The Modi Govt is a fraud , only fools believe in him . The economy is in doldrums. If India is growing so much , why 90 cr people are given free ration ? The govts both centre and states are sitting over a debt trap .

莫迪政府就是个骗局，只有傻子才信他。印度经济早就一蹶不振了。要是经济真这么能涨，为啥要给9亿人发免费口粮？中央和地方政府全掉进了债务陷阱里

arupsan
Fastest are often end up as last one

跑得越快，往往摔得越惨，最后垫底

pardeeptandon
As long as EC does the bidding of its bidders, the government is not bothered, even if there are public protests.

只要选举委员会听金主的话，就算民众抗议，政府也根本不在乎

R.S.M.SAIYED
Centralised planning is responsible for the poverty unemployment income and wealth inequal distributions social unrest Rupa valuations downgrade. is it true or false?

贫困、失业、贫富差距悬殊、社会动荡、卢比信用评级下调，是不是都该怪中央式规划？这话对不对

pardeeptandon
Do you mean our IAS officers who do the centralised planning are Nincompoops? Afterall, suggest and implement all policies?

你是说搞中央规划的那些印度文官全是饭桶？毕竟政策的提议和落地全是他们在管啊

KhurramSharif-n5q
Very true

说得太对了

DR.S.M.SAIYED
Inequal income and wealth policy for the Indian economy is responsible for the poverty, inflation, unemployment, and social unrest also. is it good for the honest killed poor and highly educated unemployed people as well as National Welfare?

印度经济的贫富分化政策，直接导致贫困、通胀、失业和社会动荡。这对无辜受难的穷人、高学历失业者来说，对国家福利来说，能是好事吗

Nonames795
Professor Arun Kumar is right on dot. More such program are needed.

阿伦·库马尔教授说得一针见血。就该多搞这种节目

NandyTurino
If you’re not in Kvadun now, you’re about to watch life-changing gains pass by, this thing is about to explode

现在还没入手科瓦顿，你就要错过改变一生的暴富机会了，这玩意儿马上要暴涨

davidkrupadanam1179
Arvind Subramanian former Economic Adviser to BJP government ( in his recent book A sixth of Humanity) as well as Prof Arun Kumar JNU are. sure that indian GDP growth is just about 3%.... and not 8%as claimed by BJP government.

人民党前经济顾问阿伦·苏布拉马尼亚姆，在新书《六分之一人类》里明确说，印度GDP增速也就3%左右。贾瓦哈拉尔·尼赫鲁大学的阿伦·库马尔教授也这么认为，根本不是人民党宣称的8%

spg6651
But BHAKT MANDALI believes their GOD can not be wrong at any cost .. Hence any intellectual discussion of THINK TANK would not find place in the current system of Indian economy -- This is pure BHAKT Economy now currently running

可那帮狂热信徒认定，他们的神怎么都不会错。所以智库再理性的分析，在如今印度经济体系里也没立足之地。现在印度搞的就是彻头彻尾的信徒经济

balajiraju4157
@spg6651 lol...you hate this government and will discredit their growth but the same people bash bjp their economy shrink 7.5 % during Covid but that time data is correct

哈哈，你就是恨这个政府，故意抹黑经济增长。当初疫情时印度经济暴跌7.5%，你们骂人民党骂得凶，那会儿倒说数据是真的

spg6651
@balajiraju4157 During COVID people , generally people never use to doubt government data as it is coming from credible source CSO ( central Statistical Office ) which is non governmental office -- But of late we came to know CSO officers are changed as they failed to accept the data coming from THEERTH STAL . All doubt on data integrity started later -- Now even 7.5 % looks fake -- It should be much less

疫情那会儿大家都不怀疑政府数据，因为数据来自中央统计局，那是独立机构，可信度高。可后来才知道，统计局官员因为不认可高层塞过来的数据，全被换掉了。从那以后大家才开始质疑数据真实性。现在别说8%，就连当初的7.5%看着都像假的，实际跌幅肯定更大

bravikumar8950
It appears that Indian economic position in 2026 may be disastrous as the leaders who are elected to think seriously have their different targets/priorities

2026年印度经济恐怕要惨了。本该专心搞经济的当选领导人，心思全在别的目标上，压根没把经济当重点

rajeevpathak5715
Just one correction they are not elected. They are ruiling us by fake management of Elections by EVM and ECI

纠正一句，他们根本不是选出来的。是靠操控电子投票机和选举委员会造假上台，在这儿独才呢

spg6651
Very intense and deep discussion -- Thanks a lot

这场讨论够激烈够深刻，太感谢了

DharmendraRaiMindMap
Black coat needs pain killers ? Keeps saying aaaah aaaah aaaah every 5 seconds

穿黑外套那哥们儿是不是该吃点止痛药？每隔五秒就哎哟哎哟叫唤

rajeevpathak5715
Indian Economy is Full of Fake Numbers as on today and is totally collapsed now . This is the compelte story. There can be several parameter to talk about but the road is closed almost

如今印度经济全是虚假数据，早就彻底崩盘了。事实就是这么回事。能佐证的指标一大堆，但现在已经走投无路了

balajiraju4157
If it that bad.... people will riot due to unemployment and inflation, etc....u want india to fail so that bjp can't government

真要是这么惨，民众早该因为失业和通胀暴动了。你就是盼着印度垮掉，好让人民党下台

piyush-kumar-tank
good discussion, I was looking for some discussion on the NSSO Consumption Survey results, if they provide supportive and counter supportive evidences to this.

讨论很到位。我一直想找关于全国抽样调查局消费数据的讨论，想知道这些数据能不能佐证或者反驳这个观点

pardeeptandon
Except for the Sanghie Andh Bhakts, no one believes our economy grew by 8.2% last quarter. Modi Hai tuo Momkin Hai ka Rupee falls by 7 %, and the economy grows by 8,2 %.

除了国民志愿服务团的盲粉，没人信上季度经济涨了8.2%。口号喊着“有莫迪就有可能”，结果卢比贬值7%，经济反倒涨8.2%，简直离谱

arunsakalle
HAPPY AS FIRST VIEWER

开心，我是第一个观众

mohammedmurtaza3257
Denial is the defense of this government

否认事实，就是这个政府的惯用伎俩

kskumar-mg9iu
No worry, we have a litmus called Fakir.

别担心，我们有个试金石，叫苦行僧

joypeter2471
Yet modi is hiding. under low profile agendas. All neighbouring countries are against India. Yet midi is not doing anything.

莫迪却躲起来了，尽搞些无关痛痒的事。周边国家全跟印度作对，他却啥也不干

shinigamiryuk786
Why do India care about others? Most of them are dependent to us

印度犯得着在意别人？他们大多都得靠我们过日子

TrackEngineersMumbai
Demand is not very low but demands are fulfilled by chinese imports. So no private sector investments going up. Either we have built suitable manufacturing competitiveness in taxation , power , infra which is very difficult. So we are becoming an import dependent economy. Data shows correctly imbalance between import and export from India.

国内需求不算低，但全靠中国进口满足。所以私营企业根本不愿投资。要想提升制造业竞争力，得优化税收、电力和基建，可这事太难了。印度现在越来越依赖进口，进出口数据也清楚显示出这种失衡

ShielaIlda
Forget altcoins. The Binance and Amazon deal makes Kvadun a required portfolio hold. 1000x confirmed.

别盯着山寨币了。币安和亚马逊一合作，科瓦顿必入持仓清单，涨1000倍稳了

shrestaassociates4063
Even patel statue v import from China.

就连帕特尔雕像，也是从中国进口的

ad
The sad thing is, majority of indians don't want to accept the truth

可悲的是，大多数印度人根本不愿接受真相

Star-ds4sd
Excepted Data in Graphical Presentation But Unfortunately Just Talk

本来盼着能放数据图表，结果全程光说不展示，太失望了

Dadasahab1234
Only Congress bhakts are invited on this channel . TELLS ENTIRE STORY

这频道只邀请国大党的信徒，一看就知道啥猫腻了

spg6651
That is true -- 8.2 % GDP growth in BJP GDP calculation and not the whole Country's calculation -- BJP has rewritten mathematics and per their scale 3% is equal to 8.2%

说得对。8.2%的增速，是人民党自己算的，不是全国真实数据。他们直接改写了数学规则，按他们的算法，3%就等于8.2%

fd
No need to be concerned. Modi ji will cook a beautiful number of growth in India's GDP.....as usual

不用操心，莫迪老大会跟往常一样，把GDP增速做得漂漂亮亮的

shrestaassociates4063
US has levied 0% on china semi conductor..

美国对中国半导体已经零关税了

shrestaassociates4063
Nobody in govt bothers about our cry....they r busy in Aravalli..

我们再怎么呼吁，政府压根不管。他们忙着搞阿拉瓦利山区的项目呢

AmigoBatson
Too much stammering is very annoying

口吃也太严重了，听得真烦

ppr2024
this down that down blah blah. Please give just one empirical data say Agriculture or Automobile. We all can get a better picture.

整天说这不行那不行，废话一堆。能不能给个实打实的数据，比如农业或者汽车行业的，这样大家才看得明白

bruhx219
Venu ji with all due respect aap uh hu bahut karte hai in-between talking, not very coherent

维努先生，恕我直言，你说话老穿插着嗯嗯啊啊，太不连贯了

dheerajsharavan
He just wants to bash India. Look at the glee on his face.

他就是故意抹黑印度，你看他那幸灾乐祸的样子

BillGilbert-f4d
It's all about timing: Get the early Kvadun bag, let it explode, and then switch to the 'boomer safe haven' of gold before the crypto market cools down

关键看时机：趁早入手科瓦顿，等它暴涨就出手，然后在加密货币市场降温前，换成老年人眼里的避险神器黄金

ravindersood3286
I must express my surprise at the lack of appreciation from both of you, which is taking a toll on your health, Venu. It's essential to accept that your influence is waning, and your relevance is dwindling. Your arguments about the unorganized sectors and demonetization are no longer effective. Professor Arun Kumar, it's time to adopt a new approach. With the base year set to change, more reliable data will become available, and we'll witness significant growth in the next quarter. Interestingly, if we consider US data, only 15% of people can achieve a 4.03% GDP growth rate, so it's possible for India to achieve 8.2% growth, perhaps due to underreporting. During my tenure at LIC India, I learned the importance of focusing on organizational strengths rather than dwelling on competitors' strategies. As renowned economists, your positive outlook can significantly impact India's destiny.

说实话，我很惊讶你们俩这么不受待见，维努，这都影响你健康了。得承认你们影响力越来越弱，也越来越没人在意了。你们拿非正规经济和废钞令说事，早就没人听了。阿伦·库马尔教授，该换思路了。基准年马上要调整，到时候数据会更靠谱，下季度经济肯定会大幅增长。有意思的是，看美国数据就知道，只有15%的经济体能实现4.03%增速，印度凭啥不能涨8.2%？说不定还是少报了呢。我在印度人寿保险公司任职时就懂一个道理，要盯着自身优势，别总纠结对手的策略。你们都是知名经济学家，积极的态度能直接影响印度的未来

subbulakshmikrishnan316
You believe that everything is in great shape?

你真觉得现在一切都好吗

rajeevpathak5715
The GDP is fake The Trade Deficit is only rising and average is g to 40 Bi USD . The Budget Deficit would be atleast 15 to 17 Tr INR The debt payment is going to be 15Tr INR what is left in India now how do we manage ?? No one would come forward for rescue either Jai Shree Ram ho gaya kam

GDP全是假的，贸易逆差还在持续扩大，平均每月要到400亿美元。财政赤字至少15到17万亿卢比，债务偿还额也得15万亿卢比。印度现在还有啥家底？根本撑不下去了。没人会来救我们，光喊“胜利属于罗摩”顶个屁用

lakshmanarejeti2238
Please explain CONGRESS connection to FAKE CURRENCY NOTES and CURRENCY PRINTING EQUIPMENT SALE TO PAKISTAN. Did this happen and if so did CONGRESS betray its own people and encouraged ISLAMIC TERROR in PAKISTAN

请解释下国大党和假钞案的关系，还有向巴基斯坦出售印钞设备这事是不是真的？要是真的，那国大党就是背叛国民，纵容巴基斯坦的恐怖主义

everywheretales
to the pragmatist economist Prof Arun Kumar to break down all the high-handed jargon that both government bureaucrats and private talking heads alike spout 24/7, and instead learn to use divergent thinking the absence of which ceaselessly misrepresents a multi-dimensional people into a two-dimensional nation hanging around for gloating politicians to brag on about wng elections. Most of all for focusing on a daft political class and a compliant bureaucracy for painting the economy into such corner that it's hostage to anything demanded by an out-of-control U.S. leadership

感谢务实派经济学家阿伦·库马尔，把政府官员和民间评论员整天挂嘴边的晦涩术语全拆解得明明白白。我们就该学会多元思考，少了这种思维，只会把多元的国民硬生生简化成扁平的群体，只能看着政客靠赢选举沾沾自喜。最关键的是，他点出了愚蠢的政客和听话的官僚，把印度经济逼到了绝境，现在只能任由失控的美国政府拿捏

pardeeptandon
If India agrees to become America's Trojan horse in BRICS and sabotage the de-dollarisation of BRICS' international trade policy, America will give India a DEAL.

要是印度答应做美国在金砖国家的特洛伊木马，破坏金砖国家去美元化的国际贸易政策，美国才会跟印度谈成协议

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