India's economic slowdown is visible everywhere except the official GDP series.

(Which raises some questions about said series.)

除了官方公布的GDP数据之外，印度经济放缓的迹象随处可见。

这也让人们对这套官方统计数据产生了质疑。

以下是印度网友的评论：

Anantha Sundar Rajan1
Boss, Do the macro-economic parameters you have shown and the impact these actually have on the people on the ground have any relation at all? And don't go by %age, it is misleading use absolute numbers adjusted to inflation and the base benchmark selected. 10% growth is easy when the base is just 100- you just need to grow 10 rupees, but a 10% growth on 1000 means you have to created a growth of 100. Look at the adjusted, corrected data below, and if comfortable debate with me: (here the period shown is between 2004 to 2014 and 2014 to 2025)

老兄，你列的这些宏观经济数据，和老百姓的真实生活感受有关系吗？别光看增长率百分比，这很容易误导人。要用扣除通胀后的实际绝对值，还要看统计基数。基数只有100时，增长10%很简单，只需要多10卢比。但基数是1000时，增长10%就要多出100。你看看下面调整过的真实数据，不服的话可以和我辩论。时间段分别是2004-2014年和2014-2025年。

Avi Yadav2
India has been hit by two major events GST, Demonetisation so , base year would have been taken before the 2008 crisis , if numbers aren't adjusted for inflation then they would look attractive. It's my thought I may be wrong .

印度经历了两件大事：商品服务税改革和废钞令。统计基数应该用2008年金融危机之前的年份。如果数据不扣除通胀，看起来就会很漂亮。这只是我的看法，可能不对。

Anantha Sundar Rajan
Yea, I know, but look at the background of piie, and what kind of economic policies it normally advocates- and you will understand the reason behind this article of its.

我知道。但你看看彼得森国际经济研究所的背景，还有它一贯支持的经济政策，就明白这篇文章为什么这么写了。

Keralatemples
The post compares 2005-11 (a global commodity boom period with unusually high credit and trade growth) with 2012-24, a period that includes multiple global shocks. such as the global trade slowdown after 2012, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the 2022 energy shock. Naturally, indicators like exports, imports, and credit growth appear slower because global trade itself slowed dramatically after 2011. That does not mean GDP data is wrong; it simply reflects a different global environment. Second, many of the indicators used (imports, exports, credit, electricity growth) cannot move at the same pace forever once an economy becomes larger. When an economy matures, growth rates in these variables naturally moderate even if the economy continues expanding strongly. For example, India’s GDP today is more than twice the size it was in 2011, so percentage growth in trade or credit will mechanically look smaller. Economists call this the base effect—high early growth during expansion phases cannot continue indefinitely.

这个对比很不公平。2005-2011年是全球大宗商品繁荣期，信贷和贸易增速都异常高。而2012-2024年遭遇了多重全球冲击：2012年后全球贸易放缓、新冠疫情、2022年能源危机。所以进出口、信贷等数据增速自然变低，这不代表GDP数据造假，只是全球环境不同了。其次，经济规模变大后，进出口、信贷、用电等指标不可能永远高速增长。经济成熟后，哪怕整体仍在强劲扩张，这些指标的增速也会自然放缓。比如印度现在的GDP规模是2011年的两倍多，贸易和信贷的百分比增速自然会变小。经济学家称之为基数效应，早期高速增长不可能一直持续。

Sumit Rao
Where are you seeing it?

你从哪儿看出来印度经济放缓的？

Krishnan Nayar
Remind me what the almighty hurry is about? OK, India's not going so fast. So what? It is progressing and will get there in the end, though some years later than some had hoped. What's the big deal?

我就想问问，大家在急什么？印度经济发展确实没那么快了，那又怎样？我们经济一直在发展，早晚能达到目标的啊，只是比有些人预期的晚几年而已，有什么大不了的？

DatFollowButton
What do you define as 'get there'?

你说的“达到目标”具体指什么目标啊？

Krishnan Nayar
What is so terrible about India having reasonable access to technology and a reasonable standard of life for its people even if this is somewhat less opulent than China's? Why should everyone live in the tasteless wasteful style of an American suburb?

就算印度的生活水平不如中国那么高，只要民众能用上技术、过上体面的生活，这有什么不好的？为什么所有人都要学美国郊区那种无趣又浪费的生活方式？

Vinay
In the long run, we are all dead.

长远来看，我们以后都会不在的

joysamcyborg
The average Chinese gdp growth between 2005 to 2011 was 11% And between 2012 to 2024 was 6% A massive 5 percentage point dip. Context is important. This is the decade of Covid, supply chain disruptions, food shortages, global hyperinflation,Ukraine war, trade war, Middle East wars. India’s gdp growth taken in that context looks awesome .

2005-2011年中国GDP平均增速11%，2012-2024年只有6%，直接跌了5个百分点。要看大环境。这十年有新冠疫情、供应链断裂、粮食短缺、全球高通胀、俄乌冲突、贸易战、中东战乱。放在这个背景下看，印度的GDP增速已经非常亮眼了。

Raj
In 2014 we have we exported 314 billion usd goods , in 2025 it's only 420 . only grow 100 billion

2014年印度商品出口3140亿美元，2025年才4200亿，只增长了1000亿。

Vishal
Look ar USD INR ratio. The USD has appreciated by 40% or more. Instead of only dollar value also look ar shipment size

看看美元兑卢比的汇率，美元升值了40%还多。不能只看美元价值，也要看实际出口货量。

Raj
We import in usd not in INR

我们进口是用美元结算，不是卢比。

Vishal
Low base vs high base effect. In 2005 base was hardly 100 billion. Some make in India components and readjustments of oil basket with better negotiation rates .

这是基数高低的问题。2005年出口基数才1000亿出头。还有印度制造的产业调整，以及石油采购议价优化等因素。

Kupcake
Total exports were 468 bil, in 2024 it was 826 bil.

2011年总出口4680亿，2024年达到8260亿。

Raj
Abe gadha . Ye service aur merchandise do lekar Hai. Infact most most countries not count service export as export

你傻啊，这是服务+商品出口加在一起的。大多数国家根本不把服务出口算作出口。

Kupcake
Gadhe, both add the same value to GDP. No country omits services while calculating GDP.

笨蛋，两者对GDP的贡献是一样的。没有国家计算GDP时会剔除服务出口。

Raj
Even service export is not satisfactory from 150 billion to 350 billion in 12 years

就算服务出口也不行，12年才从1500亿涨到3500亿。

Hrishikesh Verma
Yes, we didn't perform as expected especially in manufacturing and that's evident from Manufacturing GVA hovering around 14℅, but also see services exports, it has more than doubled

确实，我们的表现没达到预期，尤其是制造业，制造业增加值占比一直在14%左右徘徊。但你也要看服务出口，已经翻了一倍多。

Raj
In reality service export isn't truly we should call export things. Calling tourism, consulting things likes export is bad economic terms

说实话，服务出口根本不算真正的出口。把旅游、咨询这类叫出口，在经济学上很不严谨。

Shashank Vashistha
Here some countries whole gdp is depend on tourism and you are saying don't say these as it is bad economic terms

有的国家整个GDP都靠旅游业，你居然说这不叫出口、不算正经经济数据。

Raj
Even India's tourism sector is stagnant . AI will be huge blow for India's IT export

印度的旅游业本身就停滞不前。而且人工智能会对印度IT出口造成巨大打击。

Rishi
I think it's mostly down to poor deflator estimation. Data collection has been a mess under the Modi government

我觉得问题主要出在平减指数测算不准。莫迪政府时期的数据统计工作一塌糊涂。

Rohan Bhardwaj
Didn’t IMF recently downgrade quality of Indian official statists to second from bottom?

国际货币基金组织最近不是把印度官方数据的可信度排到倒数第二了吗？

Sandeep Neel
Now do the rest of the world for the same time period. Remember the world was hit by COVID and two wars during this period.

你也拿同一时期的其他国家数据对比看看。别忘了这期间全球遭遇了新冠疫情和两场战争。

Hariharan
Every quarter GST collection is outpacing last years and yes India is not going … get lost

每个季度的商品服务税收入都比去年高，印度经济根本没放缓，一边去。

Krishnan Nayar
"Growth during the boom years between 2005 and 2011 may have been underestimated by about 1–1½ percentage points on average; and subsequent growth between 2012 and 2023 may have been overestimated by about 1½-2 percentage points." Is that all? Big deal.

“2005-2011年繁荣期的增速平均被低估1到1.5个百分点，2012-2023年的增速被高估1.5到2个百分点。”就这？多大点事。

Lovely
We can’t trust anything these days ; governemtn is busy beating it’s chest that we are moving towards vikshit Bharat

现在什么数据都信不过。政府就只会到处吹嘘，说印度正在迈向强国。

5th_pass
Economic slowdown was visible if one look at the official growth rates. Growth had fallen for 8 quarters from 2018-19 reached at decade lowest 3.8% in 2019-20. During Covid19 2020-21 minus 5.8% , post partial weak recovery 2021-22 9.8%=net growth 3.43% in 2 fiscals.

就算看官方增速，经济放缓也很明显。2018-19财年起增速连续8个季度下滑，2019-20财年跌到十年最低3.8%。2020-21财年疫情影响萎缩5.8%，之后微弱复苏2021-22财年增长9.8%，两个财年合计实际净增长只有3.43%。

KrishnanNayar1
Well, no-one is forcing you to believe India is progressing. Have it your way.

没人逼你相信印度在发展，你爱怎么想就怎么想。

Kupcake
Electricity & credit growth will obviously slow down as base increases. You just cherrypicked indicators that suits you. Services exports were 137 bil in 2011, its ~400 bil in 2025. Steel production has also doubled during the same period. Electronics exports have 8x'd

基数变大后，用电和信贷增速自然会放缓。你只是故意挑对自己有利的数据。2011年服务出口1370亿，2025年接近4000亿。同期钢铁产量翻番，电子出口增长8倍。

Arnab Biswas
What is the corporate earnings growth rate across sector;corporate earnings growth rate are levered exposure to underline gdp growth rate / pfce durable growth rate, last 10 years CAGR is around 13.5 % for nifty 500 firms, whole universe 11.5%,so rough gdp growth 5.5-6.5

看看各行业企业利润增速。企业利润和GDP、居民消费增速高度相关。过去10年，印度NIFTY500企业利润年均增速约13.5%，全市场约11.5%，据此推算GDP增速大概在5.5%-6.5%。

chethboy
You put garbage in you get garbage out on such report … biased and doesn’t make sense

这种报告就是垃圾数据进，垃圾结论出，充满偏见，毫无道理。

Rohan Bhardwaj
“Hindu Pro Max” rate of growth under a Hindutva government Lower or just about on par with the original ~ 4% growth rate for decades that India experienced post independence that turned India into…well what India is today.

印度教民族主义政府治下，所谓“印度加强版增速”，其实也就和独立后几十年4%左右的低速差不多，正是这种增速造就了今天的印度。

Settl Delvin
Should be weighted by % of contribution of sector to gdp it'd probably give a better picture

应该按各行业对GDP的贡献比重加权计算，这样才能更真实反映情况。

Dharmesh
For laymen like me, tax collection is the indicator of financial system of transactions. Beyond that you can throw your charts and number. It's you vs. them with both lacking any reliability.

对我这种普通人来说，税收数据才是真实交易的反映。其他的图表和数据都没用。两边吵来吵去，数据都不靠谱。

iamuditmitra
A strange series, one of 6 years, another of 12. Second one was coming on the back of a tiny economy, hence % will always look better. That's, like elementary school. As every analyst was forecasting 30% credit growth YoY. Now it's a pipe dream. Well that's the difference

这个时间段划分很奇怪，一个6年，一个12年。早期经济体量很小，所以增长率看起来自然好看。这是小学生都懂的道理。以前分析师还预测信贷同比增长30%，现在根本不可能，这就是基数差异。

bharath
lol. Electricity consumption doubled from 2012 to 2025 thats means 6% annual electricity consumption increase? your number is wrong. 2024–2025: Total exports (merchandise and services) hit an all-time high of $825.25 billion in 2024–25, showing 6.05% annual growth. Wrong data

哈哈。2012到2025年印度用电量翻了一倍，年均增速怎么可能只有6%？你的数据错了。2024-2025财年，商品+服务总出口创历史新高，达8252.5亿美元，年均增长6.05%。你数据不对。

Neeraj
I am curious about the time frames chosen. As usual seems to be statistical thuggery by so called western academicians! Justin when will you and likes will show some honesty?

我很怀疑这个时间段是故意选的。又是所谓西方学者的统计操纵。贾斯汀，你和这类人什么时候能诚实一点？

Peeps
We will see. There have been dire predictions for India for many years. None of them came true. So there is a middle ground between the pessimism of the West and optimism of India. Might surprise you.

走着瞧。这么多年一直有人看空印度，结果一个都没应验。西方的悲观和印度的乐观之间，还有中间地带，结果可能会让你大吃一惊。

shiraz
Don't think data is accurate. Credit growth at 5%, sales growth at 3%, Direct tax at 7%. Nifty revenue growth is 10% last 10 years, credit growth is 11%, direct tax is more than 10%. Even consumption and investment numbers look way odd.

我觉得这些数据不准确。信贷增速5%、销售3%、直接税7%？过去10年印度蓝筹股营收增速10%，信贷增速11%，直接税超10%。就连消费和投资数据也明显不对劲。

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