新加坡前外长：中国在为中美战争做准备

George Yeo: China is Preparing for War With USA?

乔治・杨：中国在为中美战争做准备？

former Singaporean Foreign Minister George Yeo dives into the growing tensions between China and the USA, exploring the possibility of a future conflict. Drawing from his extensive diplomatic experience, Yeo breaks down the strategic moves China is making, the underlying geopolitical factors at play, and what it all means for the global balance of power. Are we on the brink of a new Cold War, or is there a chance for peaceful coexstence?

新加坡前外长乔治・杨深入剖析中美日益升级的紧张关系，探讨未来冲突的可能性。他凭借丰富的外交经验，拆解中国当前的战略动作、背后的地缘政治因素，以及这一切对全球权力平衡的影响。我们是否正站在新冷战的边缘？和平共存是否仍有机会？

China is preparing for war. Preparing for war. Not because China wants war, but China knows that in order to avoid war, it must be prepared for war. So there's a famous line in ingfa, the art of war. He says, in other words, do not plan on the assumption that the other side will not attack. Plan on the basis that you can withstand all attacks, then there will be peace. Now interestingly, this statement from Sun Tzu was quoted by Medadev, the Russian prime minister who has also been reading Sun Tzu.

There are three main domains of warfare which I think China is worried about. Now I don't belong to the five eyes. I'm not in government. So I'm just watching and trying to understand and make sense of what I read and see. One is of course nuclear warfare. China says it will not be the first to use nuclear weapons. So, it must have a deterrent capability. The US has been quite determined to deny China a counter-strike capability because if it's just conventional warfare, repeated scenario war gaming by the Indopacific command by RAN shows that in a conventional war around Taiwan, the South China Sea, America cannot prevail. So they must be able to threaten nuclear weapons. But if China can threaten back, then that threat is blunted.

中国在为战争做准备。为战争做准备。并非因为中国渴望战争，而是中国深知，要避免战争，就必须做好战争准备。正如《孙子兵法》中有句名言：“无恃其不来，恃吾有以待也。” 换言之，不要寄望于对方不会进攻，而要基于自身能抵御一切攻击来谋划，如此方能实现和平。有趣的是，俄罗斯总理梅德韦杰夫也曾引用孙子的这番话——看来他也研读过《孙子兵法》。

我认为中国主要关注三个战争领域。先说明，我不属于“五眼联盟”，也不在政府任职，只是以旁观者身份理解所见所闻。首先是核战争领域。中国承诺不首先使用核武器，不过必须具备威慑能力。美国一直极力遏制中国的二次核打击能力，因为印太司令部和澳大利亚海军多次兵棋推演显示：在台海、南海周边的常规战争中，美国无法取胜。因此，美国必然会试图以核武器相威胁。但如果中国能以核威慑反制，美国的威胁就会失效。

So China has a few hundred warheads. America has many thousands. And China is thinking of putting their ICBMs on highspeed rail. It's about the same length of the carriage. Uh but they can't be sure because a few hundred, you can tag every one of them. Yes, you have tunnels but I know where the tunnels open and where they close and I can close them. China's strategic bombing is very backwards relatively speaking. So they are very dependent on strategic submarines, which is why the South China Sea is so important. It's not about navigation or ship. At the core of it are nuclear submarines. You know in SA they have a facility like you see in James Bond movie. You know deep down below the submarines come out. The Americans cover the seabed. They have all kinds of drones, seabed arrays, surveillance to monitor all the Chinese submarines. And the Chinese harass American submarines and encourage the fishermen to fish out American drones. They pay much more for a drone than for a tuna and see. So there's a game going on which is not much reported but which those who are interested follow.

But just to be sure, China will increase its warheads to maybe a thousand, maybe more, so that whatever you do, you can't take out all my counter strike capability. And without that counterstrike capability, America's ability to prevent reunification of Taiwan will be severely blunted. So this one serious area and in many Chinese cities they're building tunnels, nuclear tunnels like they did against the Soviet Union.

中国目前有数百枚核弹头，而美国拥有数千枚。中国正考虑将洲际弹道导弹（ICBM）部署在高铁上——导弹长度与高铁车厢相近。但问题在于，数百枚导弹数量有限，每一枚都可能被追踪。即便有隧道掩护，美方也能掌握隧道出入口位置并实施封锁。相对而言，中国的战略轰炸能力较为落后，因此高度依赖战略核潜艇——这正是南海的核心意义所在。南海的关键并非航运或通航自由，而是核潜艇部署。就像詹姆斯·邦德电影里的场景，某些东南亚国家的海底设施能让潜艇隐蔽出入。而美国则通过各类无人机、海底阵列和监视系统覆盖海床，严密监控中国潜艇。对此，中国一方面骚扰美国潜艇，另一方面鼓励渔民打捞美国水下无人机——甚至开出比金枪鱼更高的悬赏。这场博弈虽少被报道，但业内观察者始终关注。

为确保万无一失，中国可能将核弹头数量增至千枚甚至更多，以保证无论美方如何行动，都无法摧毁全部二次核打击能力。一旦中国失去这种能力，美国阻止台湾统一的底气就会大幅削弱。这是关键领域之一，中国许多城市正在修建核防护隧道，就像当年应对苏联威胁时那样。

以下是各国网友的评论：

duinay3
more appropriate title should be, "China prepares to defend itself from US".

标题该改成“中国准备抵御美国”才对。

SoloWolf1792
China has the right to defend itself from US

中国有权自卫反制美国。

Aron-t6m
Usrael and the Anglo-Saxons do not want to give up their colonial claims ..

“美以集团”和盎格鲁 - 撒克逊人就是不肯放弃殖民野心。

Worldwide-789
Yup america is the bully here

可不是嘛，美国才是霸凌的那方。

arslan_TM
Full support and back to China from Pakistan

巴基斯坦挺中国，全力支持！

tevenchan8307
American warships sailed to the Red Sea and the Persian Gulf, claiming to fight terrorism and maintain world peace, and sailed to the Taiwan Strait, claiming to maintain freedom of navigation. Chinese warships sailed to the South China Sea, and were called bullying the Philippines and Vietnam. Open the world map and take a good look. Is there something wrong with the fairness and freedom in your mind?

美国军舰开去红海波斯湾，说是反恐护和平；开赴台湾海峡，说是维护航行自由。中国军舰去南海，就被说成欺负菲律宾越南。打开世界地图看看，你们心里的公平自由是不是歪的？

goching7738
US has fought many major wars and engaged more than 100 armed conflicts throughout its history. We must bear in mind that America has never fought any wars on its own soil.

美国历史上打了多少大战，搞了100多场武装冲突。但别忘了，美国本土可从没打过仗。

donperera2497
Begng of the end of American supremacy

美国霸权要完了，这就是开始。

fosteringfirearms9173
We've all been hearing that bs for decades now... lol.

这话我们都听了几十年了，全是鬼扯，哈哈。

genoatamayo5630
just keep dreaming

接着做你的春秋大梦吧。

WilfredoAblola-r2r
The speaker is day dreaming blah blah blah,you are bully on you neighbors

说话的人在做白日梦呢，吧啦吧啦。你就是在欺负邻居。

SamuraiBud
The chinese fan boy has spoken

中国的“狂热粉”发言了。

bluecalu7944
America is almost 300 years old. Even the greatest empires in world falls.

美国快300岁了，再牛的帝国最后都会垮。

SlavaRussiaHamas7October
Yes they are even if they say they are not

对，就算嘴上说没准备，其实早就在准备了。

nandanugent
China has lifted 1.4 billion citizens out of poverty while the US is rapidly moving in the opposite direction. Perhaps if the US focused on the development of their great nation and the infrastructure of the country while supporting their own citizens instead of initiating military conflicts all around the globe they would become truly successful and happy.

中国让14亿人脱贫，美国却往反方向狂奔。要是美国别满世界挑事，好好搞本国建设、修基建、帮老百姓，早该成功幸福了。

danwelterweight4137
US has no industrial capacity to go to war against a peer competitor. The US wouldn't even be able to match what Russia is doing right now. And Abram tank takes 8 months to manufacture. Russia is manufacturing over 100 to 150 tanks a month. It takes the US 18 months to 24 months to build a single F - 35 fighter jet. Back in WWII the US manufacturered a single B - 17 bomber in just 53 minutes. China manufacturers 215x more ship tonnage than the United States today. China manufacturers 12x more steel than the United States. Graduates 7x more engineers, mathematicians, technicians and scientists than the United States. It's not even close.

美国跟同级别对手开战的工业能力根本没有。现在连俄罗斯的产量都比不过：艾布拉姆斯坦克造一台要8个月，俄罗斯每月造100 - 150辆；美国造一架F35要1年半到2年，可二战时造架B - 17轰炸机才53分钟。现在中国造船吨位是美国的215倍，钢铁产量12倍，培养的工程师科学家是美国的7倍，根本没法比。

talk2stop
If US to war with China, Singapore needs to prepare their ports for US carrier & submarines to dock at Singapore ports. That's Singapore job to work for US. China aware of that. Singapore is doing the war drumming.

要是美中开战，新加坡得给美国航母潜艇腾港口，这是给美国当差呢。中国心里清楚，新加坡这是在煽风点火。

DK-gj5sp
China and Russia must block Singapore ports before hand. And Malaysia should help China

中俄得先把新加坡港口封了，马来西亚该帮中国。

cliffordtan8799
Keyboard warriors in rampage!

键盘侠又在狂喷了！

ezekielhall7907
All Singaporeans know without any doubt that the powerful Singapore government, like Taiwan supports China militarily

所有新加坡人都清楚，新加坡政府跟台湾地区一样，在军事上支持中国。

dg3831
I got a saying to. Don’t turn your back on your opponent.

我也有句老话：别把后背留给对手。

josiahchengc
Yes, a very wise man enlightening us about the mortal dangers we face today and always seeking peaceful solutions for the world!

对，这位智者在点醒我们当下的致命危机，还一直为世界找和平出路！

paulasmith754
want peace. but prepare for the worst.

想要和平，但得做最坏打算。

marjoriecoey3418
China is smart. Ready but steady.

中国很精明，有准备但不冒进。

eecheelek
Why does some Asean countries still host USA military bases if they don't want to be involve in the US - China rivalry? Does it not show already which side they're on? if a war breaks out, of course they will be targetted. Sovereignty or pretending Neutrality means nothing if you have foreign forces having forts, bases, garrisons stationed on one's soil.

有些东盟国家不想卷中美对抗，为什么还让美国驻军？这不明摆着站哪边吗？真打起来，他们肯定成靶子。外国军队在自家地盘上修基地驻军，何谈主权和中立。

darlenewilson4511
Don't forget about heroshima

别忘了广岛

africaunited7939
Very wise man

这人说得很有见地。

bradley8361
I prefer all nations to be friends not foes. All nations are different, that is what makes them all the same. All countries cannot go it alone, that's what will bring us all closer together.

我盼着各国做朋友不做敌人。各国都不同，这正是共同点。谁也不能单打独斗，抱团才能走得近。

MichaelCleveland-v5h
Work for peace. Prepare for war. The rich who rule over us American Slaves. Will not let go of power, no matter how many of us slaves die. My prayers go to China and peaceful global cooperation.

为和平努力，为战争准备。统治我们这些“美国奴隶”的富人，哪怕我们死光也不肯放权。愿中国和全球和平合作能实现。

NN-wc7dl
China has a great collection of wisdom to fall back on. What does the United States have that could challenge that? Lonesome Prairie Thoughts of Roy Rogers? The collected poems of Buffalo Bill?

中国有深厚的智慧家底。美国拿什么比？罗伊·罗杰斯的《寂寞草原随想》？还是水牛比尔的诗集？

ImagesOfCountries
China is just practising pragmatism and rationality.

中国只是在务实理性做事。

alphaomega5923
Keep it concise: blend common sense with strategic finesse. ASEAN’s $3.1 trillion market brims with opportunities for America. China today isn’t the China of the 1950s. Times are shifting, and develo nations are eyeing the broader horizon.

说简单点：把常识和战略智慧结合。东盟3.1万亿市场对美国是机会。今天的中国不是50年代的中国了，时代在变，发展中国家都在看更远的未来。

abc123-q3s
I use all China products from Bangladesh

我在孟加拉国用的全是中国货。

OGFACESOLDIER0708
China will get obligated. No more rice for my Eastern Friend

中国会被“套住”的，我东方朋友要没米吃了。

IANGTG
1. If the U.S. initiates the war with China, it is definitely the lose - lose situation. The reason is that China always keeps very low profile in terms of military strengths, especially the highly lethal and destructive weapons. 2. China fully grasps the essence of military tactics, including the classic Sunzi's THE ART OF WAR

1. 美国要是挑头打中国，肯定两败俱伤。中国在军事力量上一直低调，尤其是高杀伤力武器。2. 中国把《孙子兵法》这些战术精髓摸透了。

chickapeas5646
Iran had China weapons and defense. Pakistan too, India took care of that. China has no clue the hell the US could bring on them! Just hope it never happens!

伊朗和巴基斯坦都有中国武器防御，印度“处理”过这事。中国根本不知道美国能使出什么狠招，只求别打起来！

awas1143
I refuse to believe people think we’re actually going to war

真不敢信有人觉得真会开战。

legpol
In case of war between China and the US, what I have seen is, more Asian countries will help the US win. What did Mr.Yeo see?

要是中美打起来，我觉得更多亚洲国家会帮美国赢。杨先生怎么看？

ohnnyyuen809
In times of peace, the wiseman prepares for wall. Sun Tsu. When elephants fight, it is the grass that suffers.

孙子说过，智者居安思危。大象打架，小草遭殃。

nyang
If you want to be the champion, you have to challenger the champion to beat up the champion to become the championship. Or you're just sitting there and watching him wearing his champion belt!

想当冠军就得挑战现任冠军，打败他才能上位。不然就只能干坐着看人家戴腰带！

ougohgoh1
Don’t be hypocritical, Singapore is US closest allied after Israel and Japan, China must beware of this tiny country

别装了，新加坡是美国继以色列、日本之后的铁盟友，中国得防着这个小国。

subhranshuganguly2246
I am glad as an Indian - China is focused on Taiwan and s China sea. We Indians do not want to be Ukraine of Asia

作为印度人我挺高兴：中国盯着台湾和南海呢。我们可不想当亚洲的乌克兰。