Can Vietnam be the new Singapore? Can Vietnam reinvent its stalling economic model?

越南能成为下一个新加坡吗？ 越南能否重塑停滞的经济模式？

以下是各国网友的评论：

lukeelgon6399
Vietnam may well become a manufacturing and services powerhouse. However, to compare the country with what is effectively the city state of Singapore is absurd. The latter is replacing, or maybe has already largely replaced, Hong Kong as the financial and services hub of Eastern and South East Asia. It will never be a manufacturing centre.

越南很可能成为制造业和服务业强国。不过，把这个国家和城邦国家新加坡相比很荒谬。后者正在（或许已在很大程度上）取代香港，成为东亚和东南亚的金融与服务中心。新加坡永远不会是制造业中心。

Djamonja
Yea, I think Vietnam would be more comparable to a small China, it's nothing like Singapore. I'm sure Vietnam will do OK, but not great because it has to compete with China, Indonesia, Malaysia, etc.

对，我觉得越南更像个“小中国”，完全不像新加坡。越南会发展得还行，但不会很出色，因为它得和中国、印度尼西亚、马来西亚等国家竞争。

IvanNguyen-ky6nn
@Djamonja Vietnam seas South Korea as a model country that they're after

越南把韩国视为榜样国家。

leealex24
Vietnam, Malaysia will be new powerhouses, but, it won't be like Singapore. The aspirations, structure and scale is very different from Singapore. Singapore at best, will be like larger Luxembourg. Malaysia and Vietnam are well positioned to be the new South Korea and mini-China respectively.

越南、马来西亚会成为新兴强国，但不会成为下一个新加坡。它们的愿景、结构和规模与新加坡大不相同。新加坡充其量会像更大的卢森堡。马来西亚和越南则更像是新韩国和小中国。

leealex24
@dennisravago8837 No one is concluding anything, but just discuss based on facts, figures and trends.

 没人在断言什么，只是基于事实、数据和趋势讨论。

PhatNguyen-e8j
VieNam has a stable politic, a beautiful position, our nation has vân phong bay where more potential Singapore'port, 50% goods on the world tranport through it, our governments are preparing to build an international financial center. Us really want to us develop because geopolitics, they don't want to china pressure to us, because we have east sea,.... I always trust our nation will become a great power nation in the future.

我们越南政治稳定，地理位置优越，我们国家有云壤湾，比新加坡港口更有潜力，世界上50%的货物经此运输，我们的政府正准备建设一个国际金融中心。美国出于地缘政治确实希望我们发展，他们不希望中国对我们施压，因为我们有东海。我一直相信我们的国家未来会成为一个强国。

RonanTOC
I've lived in Vietnam for just under a year. The country is booming, energy is palpable, highly educated young population, safe and family friendly country with reasonable birth rate. The future looks bright.
I would worry about automation and robotics in manufacturing, it won't be easy to achieve upper middle income economy. Also the currency devaluation (great for my standard of living) is tough on the population. Last few months particular it's down another 10% to my currency (GBP).
Vietnam is an interesting case. Hard to say how it will play out.

我在越南住了快一年。这个国家正在蓬勃发展，活力十足，年轻人口受教育程度高，是安全且适合家庭生活的国家，出生率也合理。未来看起来很光明。

我担心制造业的自动化和机器人技术，要实现中高收入经济体不容易。此外，货币贬值造成当地民众的生活很艰难。特别是过去几个月，对我的货币（英镑）又贬值了10%。越南是个有趣的案例。很难说会如何发展。

ngocntmt
Vietnam can be new Singapore when its government officials and public servants are selected from a pool of technocrats with strong academic and professional backgrounds. Inefficiency and wasted resources will remain major obstacles. To break through, Vietnam must boldly reform its public sector by adopting a technocratic, transparent, and performance-driven human resource system.

当越南的政府官员和公务员从具有强大学术和专业背景的技术官僚群体中选拔时，越南才能成为新新加坡。效率低下和资源浪费仍将是主要障碍。要突破，越南必须通过采用技术官僚、透明且以绩效为导向的人力资源系统，大胆改革其公共部门。

JT-xe5jz
I have many dealings with Vietnam government officials and departments. They’re probably similar to 1970s Malaysia

我和越南政府官员及部门有很多往来。他们可能类似于20世纪70年代的马来西亚。

CoryEngle
Singapore no, South Korea maybe

成不了新加坡，也许能成为韩国。

annenguyen249
Why does vietnam want to be the 'new' Singapore?Vietnam will be the new Vietnam.

为什么越南想成为“新”新加坡？越南会成为新的越南。

AubreyPopcan
What a reach. Singapore is Singapore. They can be the first "Vietnam" but will never be Singapore, it's just not possible.

这太牵强了。新加坡就是新加坡。越南可以成为第一个“越南”，但永远成不了新加坡，这不可能。

dennisravago8837
never be Singapore? why not? no one knows!

永远成不了新加坡？为什么不能？没人知道！

watanabe2598
No way when the Vietnamese bureaucracy is as bureaucratic and corrupt as they presently are!

越南官僚体系像现在这样官僚和腐败，绝无可能！

AnhNguyen-vc7lv
Tại sao lại so sánh Việt Nam và Singapore??? Một sự so sánh khập khiễng và thiếu tôn trọng.

为什么要比较越南和新加坡？？这样比不恰当

tanalvin8398
Vietnam will be Vietnam and will be prosperous in its own rights such as manufacturing, agricultural and services . Vietnam will not be Singapore. Singapore is Singapore with its unique policies, financial and economic strengths, no natural resources, rely on human capital. Singapore welcomes the emergence of SEA countries in economic growth and prosperity.

越南将成为越南，并凭借制造业、农业和服务业等自身优势走向繁荣。越南不会成为新加坡。新加坡是拥有独特政策、金融和经济优势，没有自然资源，依赖人力资本的新加坡。新加坡欢迎东南亚国家经济增长和繁荣

anhletuan5957
Singapore is small city with less population while việt wide area with 331.000 km2 sing with 700km2 . population việt with 100.000.000 and sing 5000.000. How same ? Nerver

新加坡是人口较少的小城市，而越南面积广阔，有331,000平方公里，新加坡只有700平方公里。越南人口有1亿，新加坡有500万。怎么会一样？永远不会。

jamesbywater
As a Singaporean, I found your comparison quite interesting. Luxembourg is known for its strong financial sector, particularly in private banking, and international investments. The financial sector is a major contributor to its economy. Singapore however is a major global commerce, finance, and transportation hub. Singapore's economy is heavily reliant on trade and manufacturing. Luxembourg and Singapore have significantly different economic profiles despite both being highly developed. Singapore also has a much larger nominal GDP, ranking 26th globally, while Luxembourg's is considerably smaller, ranking 74th. Overall, some similarities but in truth, very different. We are already larger than Luxembourg, and then some - not just "at best" as you mention.

作为新加坡人，我觉得你这样对比很有趣。卢森堡以强大的金融部门（尤其是私人银行业）和国际投资而闻名。金融部门是其经济的主要贡献者。然而，新加坡是主要的全球商业、金融和交通枢纽。新加坡的经济严重依赖贸易和制造业。尽管卢森堡和新加坡都高度发达，但它们的经济概况截然不同。新加坡的名义GDP也大得多，全球排名第26位，而卢森堡的则小得多，排名第74位。总的来说，有一些相似之处，但实际上非常不同。我们的规模比卢森堡大

ThoreClips10
Singapore invests alot in Vietnam, but I think the two countries are very different in type of economy. Singapore is financial type not manufacturing type like Vietnam

新加坡在越南有大量投资，我认为两国的经济类型非常不同。新加坡是金融型，不像越南是制造型。

vanphan9318
Singapore, nhưng thực chất là từ các quốc gia khác , Singapore là trạm chuyển tiếp

新加坡，其实是转运站。

laslie-u6u
In short Nope.
In detail: manufacturing limits to middle level
Competitors pressure.
Too large population.
Low international influence
Low resources.

简而言之，不行。详细来说：制造业局限于中低端；竞争对手的压力；人口太多；国际影响力低；资源匮乏。

AubreyPopcan
Exactly, Singapore is Singapore because of it's size, geolocation, and a bunch of other factors. Viet Nam is too large of a country, there's too many people (which is not always bad) and generally speaking too much corruption, Singapore is a safe haven for international companies, the trust is there, years and years of excellent growth and security, Vietnam cannot say the same thing, also Singaporean laws are great, harsh punishments for crimes is fantastic, in Vietnam it's quiet easy to bribe police and get yourself out of trouble, in such a place unfortunately I would not feel 100% confident to invest my money or have money there for too long.

没错，新加坡之所以是新加坡，是规模、地理位置和一系列因素促成的。越南这个国家大得多，人口多（这并不总是坏事），而且总体来说腐败严重。新加坡是国际公司的安全港，越南则不能比。此外，新加坡的法律很好，对犯罪严厉惩罚，在越南，犯事了后可以轻松贿赂警察蒙混过关

quanganhnguyen5239
Quality of people VN play a main roles in 10 years of develo this country. If not vn still stuck in low income country

越南人的素质在这个国家未来10年的发展中起着主要作用。如果没有高素质的人，越南仍会困在低收入国家行列。

stonerr
nope;; viet can be a new viet thats it

不行；越南只能成为新的越南，就这样。

tranbaohoangvu9464
who care

谁在乎。

MrUled
Risks for Vietnam are getting old before wealthy, china+1 strategy will fizzle. Limited success in building high end local supply chains. That said compared to rest of SE Asia they have stability and focus, they may at least overtake Thailand, Malaysia, Philippines

越南的风险是未富先老，“中国+1”战略将失败。在建设高端本地供应链方面成功有限。尽管如此，与东南亚其他国家相比，越南这个国家稳定，至少可能超过泰国、马来西亚、菲律宾。

xuanhienbui4948
Vietnam has benefited from its demographic structure, unfortunately, demographic dividend will end within 12 years and leave the whole country at risk of falling into the middle-income trap. Therefore, no further miracle for middle class, its mask will be stripped off.

越南受益于其人口结构，不幸的是，人口红利将在12年内结束，整个国家面临陷入中等收入陷阱的风险。中产阶级不会有更多奇迹，其面具将被剥下。

karl07777
corruption. SGP is on the other extreme.

越南存在腐败问题。新加坡是另一个极端，非常廉洁。

Buddy-OC
No check and balance. Corruption. Never

没有制衡。腐败。永远不可能。

tranbaohoangvu9464
cant wait to see how Vietnam handle first economy recession and multi related crises.

迫不及待想看看越南如何应对首次经济衰退和多重相关危机。

papahsetnov5761
Vietnam can't replace singapore.
Thailand therefore i think would replace singapore if they brave enough to gamble on kra canal

越南无法取代新加坡。我认为如果泰国足够勇敢，敢在克拉运河上赌一把，它会取代新加坡。

khanh8541
It will never be. Comparing it to Malaysia, Thailand is closer. Vietnam would be lucky to be at those countries' level. GDP per capita is at 4.5k. Vietnamese cultural foundations and talent are not suited for industrialization aside from cheap labor but more for tourism which won't make it rich. Speaking this as a Viet.

永远不会成为下一个新加坡的。把越南和马来西亚、泰国相比更合适。越南能达到这些国家的水平就很幸运了。人均GDP为4500美元。越南的文化基础和人才除了廉价劳动力外，不适合工业化，更适合旅游业，但旅游业不会让它致富。我是作为越南人说这样的话的

davecai999
To compare Vietnam and China, or implying Vietnam catching up with Singapore is absurd and hilarious -- looking at the R&D spending, China spent RMB 3.6 trillion in 2024, 8% over 2023 and 2.7% of GDP, this level of R&D is on par with leading developed countries such as the US, Japan etc, and ensure the competiveness of China's industry. Neither Singapore nor Vietname came close.

将越南和中国比较，或暗示越南能赶上新加坡，是荒谬和可笑的——看看研发支出，中国2024年花了3.6万亿元人民币，比2023年增长8%，占GDP的2.7%，这一研发水平与美国、日本等领先发达国家相当，确保了中国工业的竞争力。新加坡和越南都差得远。

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