NITI Ayog sets target for India's GDP to be 30 trillion by 2047.  Is this really possible?

印度国家经济研究所设定的目标是2047年印度GDP达到30万亿美元。这真的有可能吗？

以下是Quora网友的评价：

Anil Majmudar

Of course not . This is an election year . 25 years from know , who knows if there will be life on earth ?

当然不可能了。今年可是选举年啊。25年后，地球上还有没有生命都不好说了。

Subramaniam Duraisamy

Let's see what the NITI Aayog actually said

让我们看看印度国家经济研究所到底是怎么说的

It says and I quote: Vision Plan to make India a developed economy of $30 trillion to be out by December.

I will say this in simpler English:

NITI Aayog is preparing a document which entails a plan to make Indian economy grow.

The growth should be quantified and thus the $30 trillion number.

This is a goal and a measurable one at that. The number can be $10 trillion or $100 trillion for all we care, but quantifying the goal gives policy makers a direction.

促进印度成长为30万亿美元发达经济体的愿景计划将在12月前出台。

我可以用更简单的英语给大家翻译一下：

印度国家经济研究所正在起草一份文件，其中就包括一项使印度经济增长的计划。

增长应该进行量化，因此30万亿美元的数字也应该被量化。

这是一个可以度量的目标。这个数字可以是10万亿美元，也可以是100万亿美元，但量化目标可以给政策制定者指明方向。

BTW it's the job of the NITI Aayog to make such vision documents. We had the Planning Commission which did the same job from 1947 till 2015. They set 5 year plans every year with a target growth rate for each sector.

顺便说一句，拟定这样的目标正是印度国家经济研究所的工作。我们之前也有计划委员会，从1947年到2015年也负责同样的工作。他们每年都会制定5年计划，为每个部门设定目标增长率。

Nagendra Singh

The NITI Ayog who failed to meet their 5 year plans are planning for next 25 years.

Old nuts hard to crack and for old nuts it’s hard to see and accept the reality.

Even India will not reach to 10% growth rate in any year after 2024. Forgot about 30 Trillion India cannot even reach to 10 Trillion dollar economy by 2047.

By 2047 all the old sick people in NITI Ayog who have similar inflated ego’s will be gone from this world to ask question. Neither people remember what promises are given to them by Indian government, Politicial parties who won election or NITI Ayog 3 years back.

未能完成5年计划的印度国家经济研究所开始规划下一个25年了。

这些老家伙很难对付，也很难看清和接受现实。

印度在2024年之后压根无法达到10%的增长率。赶紧忘掉30万亿美元的噱头吧，到2047年，印度连10万亿美元的经济规模都到不了。

到2047年，印度国家经济研究所那帮虚荣自大的老家伙就都不在人世了。谁也不会记得印度政府、赢得此次选举的政党或3年前的印度国家经济研究所给过他们什么承诺。

Nagarajan Srinivas

NITI Ayog sets target for India's GDP to be 30 trillion by 2047. Is this really possible?

Targets are mostly meant to be set, but seldom meant to be achieved.

印度国家经济研究所设定的目标是2047年印度GDP达到30万亿美元。这真的有可能吗？

目标大多是用来设定的，但很少是用来实现的。

Having been a manager of a top heavy Indian public sector bank, I have a fair idea how business targets are set in our Banks. The person at the base level of the hierarchy - usually a cynical clerk on the verge of retirement collects & analyses the available past date and furnishes a realistic estimate. His higher up, usually a newly joined optimistic young PO just adds up just one additional zero to make it look less unhealthy before forwarding it to the next higher ups.

作为印度一家顶级公共部门银行的经理，我对我们银行的业务目标是如何设定的，有着相当深入的了解。最基层的人—通常是即将退休的愤世嫉俗的职员—收集并分析过去可用的数据，给出一个现实的预测。他的上级，通常是一个入职不久的乐观年轻的主管，在将目标转发给上司前再加一个零，让数字看起来好看一点。

The next higher up, who's just one promotion away before his retirement adds adds up just another additional two zeroes to the figures to make it look more healthy before putting up before the boss. The boss, who had never seen the inside of his own bank and have zilch work experience but rose to be the MD / CEO only because his wife's father was once the joint secretary in the Ministry of Finance, just glances at these figures compiled by his inferiors for who he anyways has no respect because he think they do not know the values of hard work and the power of positive thinking. So he finally adds up three additional zeroes before making the grand unveiling of the year's target, to be achieved by the same “less hardworking and lacking in positive approach” inferiors whom he detests. The clerk who prepare the first draft chuckles and retires.

这位上司，距离退休只剩下一次晋升的机会了，会在向老板汇报业务目标前，往数字上再加上两个零，继续粉饰数据。这位老板从未调研过自己银行的内部情况，也没有任何相关的工作经验，就因为他岳父曾经是财政部联席秘书，所以他被提拔为总经理/首席执行官。他匆匆扫了眼下属编制的数据，他认为下属们不知道努力工作的价值和积极思考的力量。于是，他最后还会再加上三个零，然后隆重宣布今年的目标，但这个目标最后也是要由这些“不够努力、态度不够积极”的下属来实现。

This is how millions become billions and billions become trillions, merely by addition of more and more zeroes.

Coming back to the question, the year 2047 is still a long way off. And in the long run “most if not all” of us are dead.

所以几百万变成了几十亿，几十亿变成几万亿，零越加越多。

回到这个问题上，2047年还很遥远。从长远来看，“如果不是全部的话，我们中的大多数人”都会死亡。

Bishwajeet Narayan Deb

These are all BS statements. First, ask those fellows whether they can count how many zeros would be there in 30 trillion or not. I am sure that our supreme leader has asked them to come up with some impressive numbers. So they have thrown some numbers. But don't ask them about the number of zeros, they won’t be able to answer. They have to search Google. Modi might have told them to give some numbers for 2047.

全都是胡扯。首先，问问那些家伙，他们数清楚30万亿里有多少个零了吗？我相信我们的最高领导人命令他们必须拿出一些令人印象深刻的数字。所以他们报了这个数字。但是别问他们到底有几个零，他们不会回答的。他们得先上谷歌搜一搜才知道。莫迪有可能是让他们给出2047年的数据吧。

Next year there is a General election and this year there are assembly elections in five states. So people have to be told some new stories. 2047 is a safe distance. Modi and his so-called experts from the NITI Ayog wouldn't be there to take questions. So tell anything you want to tell: 30-40–50 trillion by 2047. Who's going to check what you have told people in 2023? Modi just wants to prove that he is a visionary and that the entire plan to make India a developed nation is ready.

明年印度要举行大选，今年有五个邦会进行议会选举。所以政府要给人们一些新的故事。2047年算是一个安全的时间。等到那个时候，莫迪和他所谓的印度国家经济研究所专家早都不在了，就算实现不了也不怕。所以你想说什么就说什么吧：到2047年，30万亿、40万亿、50万亿，随便说。到那个时候，谁会管你2023年说过什么？莫迪只想证明他是一个有远见的人，他已经做好让印度成为发达国家的万全计划。

My dear NITI Ayog experts - you would not be able to tell me what would be our GDP growth in the next four quarters. You couldn’t complete one single smart city in ten years and you want us to believe that you are capable of calculating 30 Trillion. Please stop this nonsense or tell me what this 30 Trillion GDP would mean to the common people like me. The proof of the pudding is in eating. Are you going to create more jobs? Are you going to reduce the burden of taxes on us? Are you going to have 1000 smart cities? Is India going to be among the top ten nations in the Global hunger index? You people have to tell us whether our lifestyle or the living standard going to be improved. Are you going to put more tax on us or increase the rate of taxation? GDP size in isolation doesn’t make any sense to us.

30 Trillion GDP is a feature of the economy you are talking about. Tell us the benefits that connect us. Tell us how are we going to benefit from the 30 Trillion GDP. Tell us the calculations. Let's see how good you are in economic mathematics.

亲爱的印度国家经济研究所的专家们，你们没有办法说清楚未来四个季度印度的GDP增长率。你们都没有能力在10年内打造一个智能城市，还想让我们相信你有能力算出30万亿这个数字。别胡闹了，不然你们直接跟我们说说这30万亿GDP对普通印度人意味着什么。布丁好坏要靠吃。你们能创造出更多的就业机会吗？你们有打算减轻我们的税收负担吗？你们计划打造1000个智慧城市吗？印度会成为全球饥饿指数排名前十的国家吗？你们必须告诉我们，我们的生活方式或生活水平能不能得到改善。你们要增加税收还是要提高税率？光有一个GDP的数字，对我们来说没有任何意义。

告诉我们，我们将如何从30万亿GDP中受益。告诉我们计算结果。让我们看看你的经济数学究竟水平如何。

The NITI Ayog team knows that Modi has lost his credibility so this time the promises are coming from different mouths. When Modi could not deliver his promises what is the value of your projection?

印度国家经济研究所的团队也明白莫迪已经没有可信度了，所以这次换不同的人来给出承诺。连莫迪都无法兑现他的承诺，你们的预测还能有什么价值？

Kanthaswamy Balasubramaniam

Why not?

Hell even 100 Trillion is possible

It's just pulling out random numbers isn't it?

$ 20 Trillion , $ 50 Trillion, $ 100 Trillion, $ 1000 Trillion

Meanwhile Today the number is $ 3.53 Trillion

为什么不可能呢？

搞笑，100万亿都有可能。

这就是个随机抽取的数字，不是吗？

20万亿，50万亿，100万亿，1000万亿，随你喊

现在，这个数字是3.53万亿美元

This is why I have the deepest contempt for organizations like Niti Ayog

Had they said $ 15 Trillion and given a good roadmap, I would have had tremendous respect for them

That would have implied a 6.21% growth across the next 25 years which would have been in itself a massive, massive economic ordeal needing the best brains and the most efficient ones in the country

所以我非常鄙视印度国家经济研究所这类组织

如果他们说15万亿美元，配上一个可行的路线图，我对他们会非常尊重。

这意味着未来25年的增长率为6.21%，这本身就是一场巨大的经济考验，需要全国最优秀的人才和最高效的人才。

Instead when an Organization like Niti Ayog says $ 30 Trillion in 25 years, you realize they shouldn't deserve not just respect but even the recognition that they are an economic group

Now maybe Modi or Stalin or KCR Or some such leader can make such a statement

Not Niti Ayog

The very fact that they make such a statement shows they aren't in the SLIGHTEST BIT SERIOUS about Indias long term growth prospects to give a realistic perspective

相反，听到印度国家经济研究所这样的组织说印度的GDP在未来25年内能达到30万亿美元，你就明白他们不但不该得到尊重，甚至都没资格说自己是经济集团。

也许莫迪、斯大林或其他领导人可以发表这样的声明

但国家经济研究所不可以

事实上，他们发表这样的声明，证明他们对印度的长期增长前景一点也不严肃，没办法给出务实的观点。

India is a Populous Country of 1.43 Billion people with an Industrial Productivity that is inferior to that of Singapore, a Nation of 4 Million People

India is a country that until this millisecond has a $ 140 Billion Trade Deficit, which would Balloon to $ 225 Trillion the second Putin and Europe end their hostilities

India is a country that still relies on rainfall for 81% of it's Foodgrains

印度是一个拥有14.3亿人口的大国，工业生产力还比不上只有400万人口的新加坡。

印度是一个直到现在还拥有1400亿美元贸易逆差的国家，如果普京和欧洲结束敌对，这一逆差将飙升到225万亿美元。

印度是一个81%的粮食产量仍然依赖自然降雨的国家。

India is a country where you still have 6.2% of the Population labelled EXTREMELY POOR , 21.5% of the Population labelled POOR and 47% of the Population labelled LOW INCOME

After 75 years of Independence

Hell India is a country where the poorest adult gets 980 Calories a day and the Poorest Kid gets 17 Calories/Kg/Day

A US Prison prescribes 1600 Calories a day minimum for a Prisoner

India is a country where 44% of the Youth from 21–25 are unemployed and 78% of the Youth dont have advented jobs (Jobs suited to qualifications)

印度仍然有6.2%的人口处于极端贫困，21.5%的人口生活贫困，47%的人口是低收入群体

而这种局面，发生在印度独立75年后

印度最穷的成年人每天仅摄入980卡路里，最穷的孩子每天仅摄入17卡路里/公斤

而美国监狱规定囚犯每天都最少要摄入1600卡路里

印度有44%的21-25岁年轻人失业，78%的年轻人找不到和能力适配的工作。