In what ways will a 33 trillion national debt affect the United States and ultimately the whole world?

33万亿美元的国债将以何种方式影响美国乃至整个世界?

以下是Quora网友的评价：

Bill Chen

The “national debt”’ of America isn’t 33 trillion.

That’s merely the debt owed by the federal government, which primarily taxes income, and funds with shortfall by issuing treasury bonds.

There is another set of government debt that is completely separate. State and local governments tax property, and fund the shortfall by issuing municipal bonds.

The total outstanding today is 33 (treasuries) + 4 (munis) = 37 trillion.

That’s 37, followed by 12 zeroes, or 14 figures.

美国的“国债”可不止33万亿美元哦。

33万亿还只是联邦政府所欠的债务，主要是对收入征税，并通过发行国债来填补缺口。

美国还有另一套完全独立的政府债务。各州和地方政府对房产征税，并通过发行市政债券来填补缺口。

现在未偿债券的总额是33(国债)+ 4(市政债券)= 37万亿。

就可是37万亿，在数字37后面还拖着12个零呢，一共是14位数。

How big is 37 trillion, relatively speaking?

It is more than 75% of the combined GDP of the world’s top 5 global economies: US, China, Japan, Germany, India, totaling ~3.5b in population.

It is more than 85% of the combined GDP of the rest, the >180 nations outside the big 5 club. That includes all of the first world beyond the US, japan and Germany. That’s 4.5b people.

America has a population of ~330m.

那么37万亿有多大？

这一数字是世界前五大经济体(美国、中国、日本、德国、印度)GDP总和的75%以上，这5大经济体的总人口约为35亿。

这一数字超过了前五大经济体以外180多个国家的GDP总和的85%，总人口约为45亿人。

而美国人口仅为3.3亿左右。

It takes the annual economic output of a population that’s an order of magnitude larger to repay the debt owed by the American government. Note this does not include unfunded liabilities, and private debt from households and corporations.

This is far and away the greatest threat to global financial security, on sole account of size.

想要偿还美国政府欠下的债务，需要比美国大一个数量级的人口的年经济产出。请注意，这并不包括未资金化负债以及家庭和公司的私人债务。

单就规模而言，这无疑是对全球金融安全的最大威胁。

United States of America

History shows that once an enormous debt has been incurred by a nation, there are only two ways to solve it: one is simply to declare bankruptcy – repudiate the debt. The other is to inflate the currency and thus to destroy the wealth of the ordinary citizen.

Adam Smith

历史表明，只要一个国家背负了巨额债务，只有两种解决办法：一种是宣布破产—拒绝偿还债务；另一种是通货膨胀，摧毁普通公民的财富。

亚当•斯密

United States of America

it will mean higher taxes for all Americans and a lower standard of living. At 5% interest it will cost each and every American $5000/year. Thank you Democrats! It is potentially more than the Democrat inflation tax we are paying now.

it means that govt has wasted $30 trillion of our money or $90,000 for each person in America. Imagine what each American could have done with that money. Instead it was used by Democrats to solve “real” problems, but oddly the problems are now worse than ever and so Democrats are calling for more huge tax increases yet again.

这意味着所有美国人的税负会进一步增加，生活水平降低。按5%的利息计算，每个美国人每年要承担5000美元。真是谢谢你们了，民*党！

这意味着政府浪费了30万亿美元的钱，或者说每个美国人浪费了9万美元。想想每个美国人能用这些钱做什么。可惜，这些钱被民*党用来解决“真正的”问题，但很奇怪，现在的问题比以往任何时候都更糟糕，所以民 主党又在说要大幅增税的事了。

Jon’s political corner

We will be in a worldwide depression before 2024. We will be so far into it that even a total Republican takeover will not be able to fix it. And when they can't fix it, they will be blamed for it.

2024年之前我们就会陷入全球萧条。我们会深陷其中，就算让共和党接手也无法解决。但如果他们无法解决问题，他们就会因此受到指责。

The African American perspective

Never.

Almost all of that debt is owned by Americans, who find it supportable. In fact, our debt is in tremendous demand, both domestically and internationally.

Most of the debt is just investments we have made for future development. And war-making, which was deemed a responsible investment at the time.

不会的。

这些债务几乎都是美国人持有的，他们觉得这些债务不算什么。事实上，我们的国债在国内和国际上都有巨大的需求。

大部分国债只是我们为未来发展所做的投资。还有战争，也被认为是一种重大投资。

Citizen Kain

There are $33T in timed payout savings accounts. The interest on those savings accounts (securities) will increase the money supply, almost exclusively in areas of the economy that have extremely low velocity or productivity. Other than that, not really anything will be affected. The public sector debt is not something borrowed and is not a funding mechanism. Those are popular misconceptions.

定期付款储蓄帐户中有33万亿美元。这些储蓄账户(证券)的利息会增加货币供应，基本上只限于经济发展速度极低或生产率极低的领域。除此之外，不会有什么其他影响。公共债务不是借来的，也不是一种融资机制。这些都是普遍存在的误解。

M Mesmer

Don’t worry the national debt only needs to be paid back in FRN’s. Just like your mortgage if you are lucky enough to have one. Ask any homeowner, inflation is a gift. The real problem arises when we ask the Chinese to continue to invest in U.S. government debt notes. Private persons aren’t allowed to use a collection of credit cards to “pay” each others monthly mininium due. Only big finance and national banks are privileged to play that game.

不用担心，国债只需要以浮动利率来偿还，就像你的抵押贷款一样。问问房主就知道，通胀是一份礼物。但当我们要求中国继续投资美国政府债券时，真正的问题就出现了。个人是不能用几张信用卡来“拆东墙补西墙”的，只有大型金融机构和国有银行才有资格玩这种游戏。

Steven Mak

As long as the US can maintain the USD hegemony, it will be fine. However, with recent sanctions against Russia, other countries are thinking about the alternative.

只要美国能维持美元霸权，美国国债就不会出问题。但最近美国对俄罗斯实施制裁，其他国家都纷纷开始考虑替代方案。

Marl Reds

I think America has one of the smallest national debt / per capita GDP ratios of any nation in the world. Further, the debt is denominated in United States dollars, the value of which we all known Biden if rapidly devaluing. That said, I sure as hell don’t want him as my president.

我认为美国是世界上国债/人均GDP比值最小的国家之一。此外，国债是以美元计价的，我们都知道，拜登执政期内美元正在迅速贬值。也就是说，我绝对不想让他当我的总统。

James H.

“When will United States’ 20 trillion-dollar debt be paid?”

It is being paid. The United States is constantly paying its debt.

The government borrows money by issuing bonds. The investors/bondholders are paid interest and when the bond matures the bondholders are paid the principal.

The investors/bondholders depend on the interest payments, and depend on the full repayment of the principal. Government bonds are low-yield investments but they're an extremely safe place to park your money.

“美国的债务什么时候能还清？”。其实，美国一直在偿还债务。

政府通过发行债券来借钱。投资者/债券持有人获得利息，等债券到期时，债券持有人就能拿回本金。

投资者/债券持有人依赖利息收入，依赖本金的全额偿还。政府债券是低收益投资，但却是一个极其安全的投资标的。

The Social Security trust fund is made primarily of these bonds.

These bonds are used to keep foreign governments and foreign markets interested in kee large stocks of the US dollar on hand, which assists in kee the US dollar as the world's reserve currency.

We don't ever want to eliminate the debt completely, as these bonds perform functions which are important to the economy in general and to private individuals.

The answer to your question, “When will United States’ 20 trillion-dollar debt be paid?” is both always and never.

社会保障信托基金主要就由这些债券组成。

这些债券可以保持外国政府和外国市场持有大量美元的兴趣，这有助于保持美元作为世界储备货币的地位。

我们从来没想过完全消灭债务，因为这些债券对整体经济和个人都有重要的作用。

至于你的问题：美国的债务何时能还清？答案是：永远都还不清。

Ken M

Related

Is the national debt of the United States good debt or bad debt?

BAD debt. It’s BAD debt because it is debt used to pay the day to day bills.

It’s used to buy weapons and bomb other countries. In short there is no pay off to the debt.

Good…or better debt is when you get into debt to build infrastructure or some sort of investment that creates economic opportunity or cost savings later on. There’s a saying about Build roads and they will come (prosperity).

美国的国债是好是坏？

美国国债是坏账，因为它是用来支付日常账单的债务。

美国用美国国债购买军火、轰炸其他国家。简而言之，这笔债务是无法还清的。

所谓好的债务或者更好的债务是为建设基础设施或其他投资而负债，从而创造经济机会或节省成本。有句谚语说：“修路就会富。”

Paul Sutton

Related

How big a problem is the US national debt?

美国国债问题有多严重？

First, the size of the debt and where it sits.

The total debt is about $21 Trillion. Of that some $5.5 Trillion or so is owed to Social Security (>$4 Trillion) and other intragovernmental agencies, leaving us about $16 Trillion.

Of that $16 Trillion, over $9 Trillion is held in US pension funds, ETFs, Mutual Funds, and so on, with some $6 Trillion owed to foreign governments (sovereign funds), roughly $1 Trillion to China, $1.1 Trillion to Japan, and the rest in increments of less than $500 Billion to other foreign holders.

So, if we default, we screw Americans, mostly. So I’m guessing that defaulting isn’t in our best interests.

首先，美国国债的规模和位置。

美国国债大约5.5万亿美元是欠社会保障(> 4万亿美元)和其他政府间机构的，剩下还有大约16万亿美元。

在这16万亿美元中，美国的养老基金、ETF、共同基金等持有超过9万亿美元，外国政府(主权基金)持有约6万亿美元，其中中国持有1万亿美元，日本持有1.1万亿美元，其他外国持有者持有不到5000亿美元。

所以，如果我们违约，遭殃的主要还是美国人，所以违约不符合我们自己的最佳利益。

While some like to blame Keynesian economics for the debt they seem to forget that while Keynes advocated deficit spending to get an economy out of the doldrums he also advocated that when the economy had recovered they should pay their debts down. Obviously, the debts owed Social Security, Medicare, and other agencies won’t go away. During the Clinton years 80% of the debt then was owed to Social Security, and the actual amount owed to Social Security hasn’t changed substantially in 20 years.

虽然有些人喜欢把债务归咎于凯恩斯主义经济学，但他们似乎忘记了，尽管凯恩斯主张用赤字支出来刺激经济走出低迷，但他同时也主张应该在经济复苏时偿还债务。显然，欠社会保障、医疗保险和其他机构的债务不会凭空消失。在克林顿执政期间，80%的债务是欠社会保障的，而欠社会保障的实际数额在20年里没有实质性的变化。

The problem? Republican administrations, specifically Bush 43 and Trump, have made the assumption that in order to make themselves look good, they put the emphasis on “growing the economy” while growing the debt. The main complaint about the Obama years was that “GDP growth wasn’t accelerating as fast as it could,” at least according to Trump. However, since Trump took office, his first budget deficit is larger than almost any Obama year, and in 2019 will exceed every Obama year.

So, we vote for politicians who promise prosperity while financing it with increasing amounts of debt. As some have pointed out, like with Russia, debt isn’t a problem until it is.

问题何在？共和党政府，尤其是小布什和特朗普做出了这样的设想：为了让自己政绩好看一些，他们在增加债务的同时强调“增长经济”。大家对奥巴马的主要不满就是“GDP增长速度不够快”，至少特朗普是这样认为的。但特朗普上任后，第一年的预算赤字几乎就超过了奥巴马任职期内的任何一个年度。

我们投票给那些承诺要给国家带来繁荣的政客，然后用越来越多的国债为他们的目标融资。有些人就指出，和俄罗斯一样，债务本身不是问题，直到它慢慢成为大问题。

And now we want to engage in an arms race with China in a way not dissimilar to the arms race Russia got into with the US. In the end, the outcome is obvious. With four times our population, and with a GDP that will eventually dwarf the US, the US is engaging in a contest that will eventually bankrupt us if carried forward at a similar pace. We get the government we deserve. Maybe if we just stifle the macho nonsense and think strategically we’ll begin to assimilate ourselves into the global community instead of trying to dominate it. Your choice.

现在我们想跟中国进行军备竞赛，就像俄罗斯曾经和美国进行军备竞赛一样。最后的结果将显而易见。中国的人口是美国的四倍，中国的GDP也将令美国相形见绌，如果继续以同样的速度发展下去，这场军备竞赛会让美国破产的。如果我们能克制政府大男子主义的胡言乱语，从战略上思考问题，我们就能慢慢融入全球社会，而不是总想着主宰世界。这正是你们的选择，你们这是自作自受。