A month of lockdown: Covid growth falls from 22% to 8%
When PM Modi announced a total lockdown of the country exactly a month ago, there were around 500 Covid-19 cases in India. But there were clear signs that the numbers were going to shoot up. The average daily growth in cases was 21.6% on March 24, which since dropped to 8.1%. Had we continued to grow at that rate, the number of cases would have crossed 2 lakh by now.
But a growth rate of 8.1% three days into the fifth week of lockdown is still higher than what the worst-hit countries achieved after locking down for the same period. While Germany brought down the growth rate to 2%, the US was at 4.8%.
If India continues to grow at the current rate, we will have close to 40,000 cases by the end of next week, which would swell to almost 70,000 in a fortnight, and near 2.5 lakh by the end of May.
But given how some states have managed to lower their growth rate (Kerala is growing at 1.8%, lower than Germany), the average growth rate could well fall in the coming days.
Even a small drop makes a huge difference to the total numbers. For instance, if India manages to bring down its growth rate to 6%, a month later, we would have to deal with about 1.3 lakh cases; at 5%, the total number won’t even cross one lakh.
译文来源：三泰虎 http://www.santaihu.com/49767.html 译者：Jessica.Wu
Lockdown is not the solution for COVID-19 its a temporary time for govt. to prepare for cases. this virus is not going to go away until vaccine is available. it will take another 12-18 months for vaccine. we will have to live with virus. 80% of infected people gets cured on their own rest 20% have fatality chances due to pre medical conditions, plus thousands die everyday from TB, malaria, & rest other diseases. if we lockdown the country till every last infection gets resolved then its a doom, it will destroy everything. millions of labors, daily wagers, poor people will die of hunger, unemployment if not died by virus. !!
The Common Man
Amazing india... our leader Modi is the best leader in the world
Virus cases will shoot up anyway after lock down withdrawal, impact will be even stronger post summer September-December months. Lock down only delay the crisis, vaccine is year away so that is too long wait when you notice what happened in New York from 0 cases to 100000 cases within a Month and thousands of death. .
解封后，病例数量将迅速增加，9 - 12月期间疫情会更加严重。封城只能推迟危机的到来，还有一年才能研制出疫苗。看看纽约，一个月内从0例增至10万例，成千上万人死去。
app due to timely and appropriate steps taken by modi govt.
He was sleeping since jan
don't compare Germany and USA to India. first of all india has a huge population and controlling a pandemic is very difficult. but must appreciate Modi go nment on dealing with this inspite of all odds against it
yes. correctly pointed out.
K Mohan Hyderabad city
PM Modi must be complemented for taking timely action of lock down
if there was no lock down we would have reached 1 lac. that was yesterday. today it is 2 lac. to show govt is doing a fantastic work they are managing numbers?
If Tablighi Jamaat activities were not there, situation would have been much better.
Lockdown is effective in controlling the spread, but can't absolutely stop it's growth
Cases are not going to come down. They will rise more rapidly, since more tests will be done. One could expect 1,00,000 cases in about a months time.
Only 15 thousand tested until 15th April and 65 thousand faulty kits arrived from China only last week yet the go nment is blowing the trumpet of victory. Feku raja doing what he always does best, telling lies and giving out fake figures. It is forecasted that USA and India lead by 2 Fools will have highest number of cases in the world and by end of May go nment will give up and lift the lock down and allow everyone out with a mask and your lives will depend on god if no vaccine is found.
Justice Freedom Equality
On 31 March India reported 146 cases. By 15 April daily figure jumped to 1031. 23 April daily new infections were standing tall at 1669. On what level infection is under control?
WE ALL SHOULD BE THANKFUL TO MODIJI AND ENTIRE GOVT. MACHINERY INCLUDING HEALTH STAFF AND POLICE FOR SAVING OUR LIVES.
It's better to continue lockdown for a month more and then continue lockdown only in active zones. Quarantine all people coming from other countries for 2 weeks. There is no other solution other than breaking the chain.
GOOD JOB INDIA AND INDIANS. LISTEN TO YOUR LEADERS. YOU GUYS SET AN EXAMPLE THROUGHOUT THE WORLD. THANK YOU
Lock down is not a solution as we don't know by when anti covid medicine will be come at market. only rich indians want lock down to be continued as they have sufficient food & money on their hand. If lock down continues, poor would die by hangry before covid atrack to them.
shobha rani kandakatla
Thanks to our prime minister india is safe
At least in Maharashtra, the lock down in the red zones must be continued for another 3 weeks.
Lockdown is not possible for ever. As and when, the LD is lifted, the virus will be back. Ultimately everyone will get infected. 80% will have mild symptoms and recover by themselves
............Modiji was proactive............Jai HIND
Lockdown should be extended till 15th May.
Mobility must be cut down as much as possible to decrease the number of ve cases.