伊朗是否已经占据上风，中国会阻止特朗普再度挑起战争吗

Has Iran got the upperhand? Will China stop Trump returning to war?

伊朗是否已经占据上风？中国会阻止特朗普再度挑起战争吗？

以下是各国网友的评论：

ronwhitehouse23
Trump is not unpredictable he is mentally deranged.

特朗普并非行事难以捉摸，他本身就心智失常、行事怪异。

ericdane7769
He's utterly incompetent, and can only cover that up by bull$hitting.

他毫无执政才干，只会靠满嘴空话和忽悠来掩盖自己的无能。

tomtucker83
@ericdane7769 He can't even bullshit effectively.

他就连吹牛忽悠，都完全不在点子上。

GerhardB4224
The old saying about power corrupts etc etc.
Normally there's a counterbalance. If not domestically at least internationally.
But he's at the apex. There's no further check or higher power beyond.
So this is like a singularity in politics...nothing left to stop the crush.....hence things just get weirder and weirder.

老话常说，权力容易使人腐化。

正常都会有制衡力量，国内没有，国际上也会有牵制。

但如今他身居权力顶峰，没有任何势力能约束管控。

这就像政坛的失控临界点，没人能阻止局势走向崩坏，事态也只会变得越来越荒诞离谱。

CoronadoBruin
Anyone who came across his appearances on Letterman and other US television back in the early to mid-80s knew/knows he is a malignant narcissist with delusions of grandeur. He is scary AF now that he is "leader" of the largest military on the planet....
May the gods help us all (and I'm an atheist)

但凡在八十年代早中期，看过他做客莱特曼脱口秀等美国节目的人都清楚，他是极度自恋、狂妄自大的偏执人格。

如今他执掌全球最强军事力量，实在让人不寒而栗。

愿上天保佑世人，即便我本身是无神论者。

scottpartlow8912
This is a SICK WORLD

这个世界简直荒唐扭曲。

ronwhitehouse23
The two conflicts are running by the same Trump narrative.

这两场地区冲突，都被特朗普用同一套逻辑刻意带节奏解读。

RosoneandWatson
Ukraine has been going on for four plus years. The world doesn't stand still for Ukraine.

俄乌冲突已经持续四年多，世界不会永远只围着乌克兰这一件事转。

muhammedrahman7013
Russia Won, that’s what happened!

事实很明确，俄罗斯已经赢得了这场冲突。

lumsop2363
@muhammedrahman7013 really? How come Putin has only just started mentioning ending the war as Ukraine has been pushing Russians back. 20% of land in nearly 4 and a half years doesn’t sound like wng to me

真是这样吗？乌克兰一直在反攻收复失地，普京反倒现在才提及停战。打了将近四年半，只拿下两成土地，这怎么看都算不上胜利。

john_smith_john
they lost more land these last 5 months than they took all last year, really good job of wng theyre doing

过去五个月丢掉的控制区域，比去年一整年拿下的还要多，这哪门子的胜利。

picsbyjlm8557
Trump quote: in order to confuse the enemy and the action that I will take against them, I must confuse myself first.

特朗普有句名言：想要迷惑对手，让对方猜不透我的举措，我就得先把自己的思路搅乱。

irvingkurlinski
No wonder he's a "military genius". lol

难怪他自诩军事天才，实在让人啼笑皆非。

tonyct6640
HMS Lime Bay looks like a sitting duck, without many armaments.

莱姆湾号军舰武器配置薄弱，完全就是海上活靶子，毫无防御能力。

timcole4608
In this age of drones and battlefield robots…. It’s a floating jammer with a missile or seven

如今已是无人机和战场机器人普及的时代，这艘军舰顶多算是一艘搭载几枚导弹的海上电子干扰船。

mambaman9363
These wars and the way the media has to deal with them. But for the viewers it’s like watching a daily unscripted Punch and Judy show.

媒体报道这些战事的方式很有意思，在观众眼里，就像天天看一场没有剧本的闹剧。

Hurricanesblackyellow95
Nothing about UAE?

居然完全没有提到阿联酋？

shaun1463
United American Emirates?

难不成把美国和阿联酋混淆在一起了？

simonmurdoch1243
war is the unfolding of miscalculations

战争，都是由一连串战略误判一步步演变而来。

maksimlipecki232
Beiing is ready to help open Hormuz. Mutual interest is above all.

中国愿意助力维护霍尔木兹海峡通航顺畅，国与国之间，共同利益永远放在首位。

zhoufen697
China won’t do a favour without a favour back, probably the chips they couldn’t make at the moment.

中国不会无偿向他国提供帮助，大概率是想借此换取目前还无法自主研发制造的芯片技术。

umarbbosa3197
unless Beiing is ready to buy more oil from Iran more than it buys from the Arabs that's the only economic leverage over Iran
Iran is ready to collect taxes from Arab oil exports unless is offered more economic opportunities which is better than the tolls

除非中国从伊朗进口石油的规模，超过从阿拉伯国家的进口量，这也是唯一能对伊朗形成经济制衡的方式。

伊朗本可以对阿拉伯国家的石油过境出口收取过路费，除非能获得比过路费更优厚的经济合作机遇。

syedmunawar1060
As long as nethanyahu is free ,no peace ,no ceasefire is possible

只要内塔尼亚胡继续掌权不下台，中东就永远无法实现和平与停火。

curtissmith1998
200 dollar oil ends it all.

油价一旦涨到每桶200美元，全球经济格局都会彻底崩盘。

robertb8186
@curtissmith1998 . Always remember, there is way more oil in world to be extracted elsewhere.

要记住，全球还有很多地区蕴藏可开采石油，并非只能依赖单一产地。

irvingkurlinski
Ukraine, the first sixth generation super power.

调侃一句，乌克兰都快被吹捧成全球首个六代超级大国了。

curtissmith1998
Niall Ferguson said no world power has survived a military that costs more than the interest on the national debt. Does a 1.5 trillion dollar military save us?

尼尔·弗格森曾提出观点，但凡军费开支超过国债利息的世界大国，最终都难逃衰落命运。每年投入1.5万亿美元军费，真能守护美国的安全吗？

NanabaWallace-i7u
I just re-listened to the 2016 White House Correspondent's Dinner speech then President Obama gave. I want to cry! What's happened?!?! How is Trump the president?

我刚重温了2016年奥巴马在白宫记者晚宴上的演讲，内心感慨万千。世事怎么会变成这样？特朗普怎么能当上美国总统？

mrtom3297
Moral responsibility? Even now a 1 person target can be hit with a 1000kg bomb.

还谈什么道义责任？如今为了定点清除一个人，都不惜动用一千公斤级重磅炸弹。

ilikedirtx22
That’s what I’ve always said, whenever Donald Trump throws his weight around and the world doesn’t respond, that weakens the United States position in the world

我一直都这么认为：特朗普每次肆意推行霸权行径，而国际社会无动于衷时，美国的全球地位只会不断被削弱。

robertb8186
Regarding the IRGC’s “plan,”… everyone’s got a plan until they’re hit in the mouth. — Mike Tyson

借用迈克·泰森的话形容伊朗革命卫队的部署计划：没被现实狠狠打脸之前，人人都觉得自己有万全之策。

JeromeDeschamps1
...the great philosopher. Looks like he was wrong here. Iran was hit squarely in the mouth, and yet.

这句名言很有道理，但这次却失灵了。伊朗明明遭受了直接冲击，却依旧稳住了局面。

robertb8186
@JeromeDeschamps1 . Why?… because they can aim a slingshot at a container ship and the insurance companies refuse to insure the ships? Seems like pressure needs to build on the insurance companies.

原因很简单。伊朗哪怕只是轻微袭扰商船，保险公司就不敢再为船只承保。其实可以从施压保险公司这边寻求破局。

johnh-dk
Would Trump do a deal in China for Ukraine for Iran and Venezuela? Positions of the stars seems to be most promising now

特朗普会不会拿乌克兰、伊朗、委内瑞拉的局势，和中国做利益交易？从目前各方态势来看，这种可能性非常大。

pappaxray2
Just get to the point, the US have a bunch of nutters in charge who are basically going to build Skynet. We're all doomed.

直说核心本质：美国如今掌权的是一群极端激进分子，简直要研发出天网这类失控智能系统，我们所有人都会跟着遭殃。

GrahamDobson-l2v
Iran tests the tankers and rattles the insurers as its patrol boats, drones, and mines make the narrow Strait shiver under their shadow; the U.S. escorts, convoys, and carrier groups counter with steel, screens, and surveillance to steady the lanes and stiffen the market’s nerve; but Iran turns the tide with a cheaper, deeper, sharper strike, not by closing the channel, but by chilling it, by making Lloyd’s, shippers, and traders see risk rise like a rogue wave before it breaks; and so the world pays the price as oil jumps, routes warp, and economies reel, proving that Tehran’s smallest move can make the global system sway.

伊朗出动巡逻艇、无人机和水雷在海峡施压，袭扰过往油轮、震慑各大保险机构，让狭窄的霍尔木兹海峡笼罩紧张氛围。

美国则派出护航舰队、运输编队与航母群，依靠军舰、防空防御和监控体系稳住航道，安抚市场恐慌情绪。

但伊朗用低成本、更隐蔽且精准的打击方式扭转局势，不直接封锁海峡，却能让整条航运线路陷入低迷。

劳合社、船运公司和贸易商都能感受到风险如同巨浪般悄然攀升。

最终油价暴涨、航线变更、各国经济遭受冲击，足以说明伊朗哪怕稍有举动，都能牵动全球格局走向。

MrChiangching
It's simple, declare victory and leave.

办法其实很简单：直接宣布胜利，然后撤军走人就行。

robertb8186
Also, calling this the 70 whatever day of the war is a little disingenuous. We stopped bombing the regime over a month ago.

另外，刻意炒作战争已经开打七十多天这种说法并不实在。早在一个多月前，就已经停止对其政权的空袭行动了。

larrymosher5045
US troops are still in harm's way in the Middle East,tens of thousands.

目前仍有数万美军驻守中东，长期身处危险的作战环境之中。

robertb8186
@larrymosher5045 And troops are still in Germany 80 years later. They’re always in “harms way.”

美军驻扎德国已经整整八十年了，他们本来就常年处在所谓的危险部署状态。

michaelbroderick2282
China is smart. They are constantly thinking long term. 30-100 years. Long term to the West is 6 months to 2 years.

中国做事极具长远眼光，布局动辄放眼三十年到上百年。而西方所谓的长远规划，往往也就短短半年到两年而已。

arikahn3907
Claiming “America wasn’t getting ripped off, look at all the soft power” is BS. Add up the dollars US overpaid for NATO and quantify the “soft power” in trillions of dollars please? Typical European selfish rationalization of free loading socialism off the US teat!

拿美国收获软实力、不算吃亏这种说法完全站不住脚。把美国为北约多付出的经费核算一下，再看看所谓软实力能折算成多少万亿美金？这纯属欧洲人自私的借口，就是想一直依附美国、坐享其成。

lindafielding6733
Utter bs. The US pays the same to NATO for its defence as Germany. ie 16% of the budget. Also until recently the US has insisted NATO allies buy US weapons, for which it charges a premium. NATO has effectively been subsidising US weapons R&D for over 80 years. The US has rent free bases and allies pay part of the cost of supplying them. As Rubio pointed out those bases are there for US operations around the world, not to defend Europe. Time for a divorce. Once Europe kicks the US out, closing the bases and the early warning installations the US fools will realise how much NATO has subsidised the US. We don’t need US traitors in Europe!

完全是无稽之谈。美国和德国向北约缴纳的防务经费占比一致，均为预算的16%。直到不久前，美国还强制北约盟友采购美制武器，并且刻意抬高售价牟利。

八十多年来，北约实际上一直在变相补贴美国的武器研发项目。美国在欧洲拥有免租金军事基地，部分后勤补给开销还由盟友承担。

正如卢比奥所说，这些基地是为了方便美国全球军事部署，根本不是为了防御欧洲。欧美关系早该划清界限。一旦欧洲驱逐美军、关停军事基地和预警设施，美国人才会醒悟，北约多年来给了美国多大扶持。

欧洲根本不需要美国那些心怀二心的人插手内部事务。

Alan-g1b5f
China 2nd guessed Trump, not a hard thing to do. Thus they gave massive oil and fertilizer stocks. Easy to foresee massive sanctions against the Trump rouge state.

中国早就预判到了特朗普的行事套路，这并不是什么难事。因此提前储备了大量石油和化肥物资。特朗普当局肆意妄为，日后遭到国际大规模制裁早已在预料之中。

tgr5772
Trump can't return to war., Iran will just bomb the Gulf states and that would be catastrophic fo the global economy. We are all in a stalemate so Trump can save face. In reality the war that was stupid and pointless in the first place is lost but he just will not admit it. The longer the blockade goes on the more time Iran has to adapt. If they lose their oil it will put a huge strain on the rest of the oil market because countries will now be competing with China who hitherto piurchased Iranian oil

特朗普不敢再度贸然挑起战争。一旦开战，伊朗势必会袭击海湾国家，给全球经济带来毁灭性打击。如今各方陷入对峙僵局，正好给了特朗普一个台阶保全颜面。事实上这场战争从一开始就荒唐无意义，早已注定失败，只是他执意不肯承认。封锁对峙持续越久，伊朗就有越多时间调整应对策略。如果伊朗石油出口受阻，全球石油市场将承受巨大压力，各国还会和中国争抢原油资源，毕竟中国一直是伊朗石油的主要采购大国。

ALuizRG

In any case, the U.S. will not be able to attack because it is an unplanned war. The American military significantly reduced its stockpile of essential missiles during the war with Iran, creating an "imminent risk" of ammunition shortages in a future conflict, should one occur in the coming years, according to experts and three people familiar with recent internal Department of Defense assessments of missile stockpiles.
In the last seven weeks of the war, the American military spent at least 45% of its stockpile of precision strike missiles; at least half of its stockpile of THAAD missiles, designed to intercept ballistic missiles; and nearly 50% of its stockpile of Patriot air defense interceptor missiles, according to a new analysis conducted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).

无论如何美国都无法再发起军事打击，因为这是一场毫无预案的战事。据相关专家以及三名熟知美国国防部近期导弹库存内部评估情况的人士透露，美军在对伊朗的军事行动中已大量消耗核心导弹储备，如果未来数年内再爆发冲突，美军将面临弹药补给即将短缺的严峻隐患。

美国战略与国际研究中心的最新分析数据显示，在战事过去七周里，美军精确打击导弹库存消耗至少达45%，专门用于拦截弹道导弹的萨德导弹储备已耗损过半，爱国者防空拦截导弹的库存量也将近消耗了五成。