Iran war: 3 ways China won without firing a shot | Fareed's Take

伊朗冲突：中国未放一枪，三大维度坐收红利

Fareed Zakaria argues that the biggest beneficiary of the US and Iran's conflict is China, without the need to fire a bullet or spend a yuan.

法里德・扎卡利亚提出观点：美伊冲突最大受益者是中国，中国无需发射一弹，也不必花费一分钱。

Here's my take. As the war with Iran blows up and cools down from week to week, one trend is clear. The biggest beneficiary of this conflict is China. Beiing did not have to fire a shot, spend vast sums, or use up political capital. But it has gained more from this crisis than any other in three decades. The war accelerated three of China's long-held goals: a Middle East less dependent on America, a world more dependent on critical Chinese technology, and a reputation for Beiing as a serious and steady world power.

Beiing has not tried to replace Washington as the Middle East's military guarantor. That would require expensive commitments. Its aim has been simpler and more subtle. Get Gulf States to detach somewhat from the American orbit. Donald Trump is doing much of that work for china . America's Gulf allies have watched as Washington waged this war in chaotic fashion and with little regard for the damage inflicted on their cities, infrastructure, and economies.

谈谈我的看法。随着美伊冲突周而复始、时而升级时而缓和，一个趋势已经十分清晰：这场冲突最大的受益者是中国。中国无需鸣枪开战、无需投入巨额资金，也不必消耗自身政治资本，却从这场危机中收获了过去三十年间任何事件都难以比拟的红利。冲突助推中国三大长期目标加速落地：中东降低对美国的依赖、全球愈发离不开中国关键技术、树立起中国沉稳可靠的大国形象。

中国并未试图取代美国，成为中东地区的军事安全保障者，这条路需要付出高昂的长期承诺。中国的目标更为简洁、手段也更为微妙：推动海湾国家在一定程度上脱离美国势力范围。而特朗普诸多举措，无形中在帮中国达成这一目标。美国在海湾地区的盟友亲眼目睹，华盛顿发起这场战事的方式混乱无序，几乎无视战火对这些国家城市、基础设施与经济造成的破坏。



The Gulf is now dividing into two camps. The United Arab Emirates is drawing closer to Israel and Washington. But a larger group led by Saudi Arabia and including Qatar, Oman, and perhaps Iraq and even Turkey is likely to seek long-term security through a balance: continued ties with the United States, but also dialogue with Iran and better relations with China. That is precisely the regional order Beiing has favored. In 2023, China brokered the restoration of diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran.

Riyadh has since resisted joining certain American-led joint data center and computer chip projects. It has bought Chinese missiles and drones, held exercises with the Chinese Navy, and explored local production of Wing Loong combat drones. Gulf countries accounted for more than 80% of Chinese defense exports to the Middle East from 2016 through 2025. No one is trying to replace America's security umbrella, but they want options, and options reduce American leverage.

China's more impressive victory is geoeconomic. At first glance, a country that imports about 70% of its oil should be among the war's biggest losers. Yet, China has weathered the shock better than most countries because it spent years preparing. It diversified suppliers, built what is estimated to be the world's largest oil stockpile, continued using coal and expanded nuclear power, and electrified its economy on a scale no other major country has matched.

海湾地区如今逐渐分化为两大阵营。阿联酋不断拉近与以色列、美国的关系。但以沙特为首，包含卡塔尔、阿曼，或许还有伊拉克乃至土耳其在内的更大阵营，打算寻求长期战略平衡以保障安全：继续维持和美国的往来，同时与伊朗开展对话，并深化对华关系。这恰好就是中国乐见的地区格局。2023年，中国斡旋促成沙特与伊朗恢复外交关系。

此后沙特不愿参与部分由美国牵头的数据中心与芯片联合项目；沙特采购中国导弹与无人机，和中国海军开展联合演习，还探讨在本土生产翼龙察打一体无人机。2016至2025年间，海湾国家占据中国对中东防务出口总量的八成以上。没有国家想要彻底抛弃美国提供的安全保护伞，但各国希望拥有更多选择，而选择权会削弱美国的影响力。

中国收获的另一项亮眼成果体现在地缘经济层面。乍看之下，一个石油进口依存度约七成的国家，本该是这场战争的主要受损方。然而中国经受冲击的能力强于绝大多数国家，这得益于多年持续布局：实现石油供应来源多元化，建成规模据称全球第一的石油战略储备；持续使用煤炭、扩大核电装机；推动经济电气化，规模没有其他大国能够企及。

 

以下是各国网友的评论：

pw8332
Chinese here. We’re busy to solve our own problems. And the US are solving Israeli problems

我是中国人。我们一心解决国内自身问题，美国却忙着为以色列各种事务奔走。

 

dollar5010
If we're solving their economic problems or have them be peaceful with their neighbors then I don't mind but we've giving them unchecked military equipment so they can oppress the innocents around them and that's the problem. Also we're using the Israeli IDF techniques to suppress our own population thru ICE goon death squads. So instead of solving problems we're creating problems. Ya China has it's own one or two major problems but in the U.S. we're in big big trouble because of 40 trillion dollar debt, culture wars the nutty far right is waging against everyone, starting another forever war by the GOP, the current orange turd in office basically makes it 100 times worst by just scrambling everything and no one here in the U.S. can trust anyone or anything anymore so everyone's on edge. It's a fucking mess we're in and the normal person are dealing with it as best as we can.

如果美国是帮助以色列发展经济、促成以色列与周边国家和平相处，那我并无异议。可现实是美国无限制向以色列输送武器，任由其压迫周边无辜民众，这就是症结所在。美国甚至效仿以色列国防军的手段，依靠移民与海关执法局这类暴力队伍管控本国民众。美国非但没有化解矛盾，反而不断制造新冲突。诚然中国也存在一些难题，但美国眼下麻烦缠身：40万亿美元巨额债务、极端右翼挑起全方位文化对立、共和党还打算开启又一场无休止战争。现任那位饱受争议的总统把一切搅得天翻地覆，局势雪上加霜。如今在美国，人与人之间互不信任，所有人都紧绷神经。整个国家一团糟，普通民众只能尽力熬下去。

 

rfimor
China: working hard to make money
US: we're too busy killing people and forget to make money. That's wrong. Not because killing is wrong but because China is "stealing" our money!

中国：埋头努力发展经济赚钱。

美国：成天忙着打仗，都忘了搞经济。在美国看来这是坏事，理由倒不是杀戮本身有错，而是觉得中国在“抢走”他们的财富！

 

G-Tango
China: Why waste a bullet when the US keeps shooting itself in the foot?

中国：美国总在不断自毁前程，我们何必浪费子弹？

 

godzillamothra5983
China: Oh please, stop sending all those wngs that we don't ask and need, just make peace already for fuck sake

中国：拜托，别总强行把冲突带来的红利安到我们头上，赶紧实现和平吧。

 

minhoonoon9443
China finds solutions, US finds excuses

中国寻求解决办法，美国只会寻找借口。

 

Decoy0527
Foreign policy:
Washington DC blows stuff up.
Beiing builds stuff.

外交政策对比：

华盛顿到处制造战火、摧毁一切；

中国到处建设、开展合作。

 

lickmyballsho
Sad, but true

很残酷，但这就是事实。

 

jongoo-d4c
The obsession with China is on another level

某些国家对中国的执念已经到了离谱的地步。

 

WongPeter-tx7qq
"Chinese problems, even if they affected no one outside China, would be of vast importance, since the Chinese are estimated to constitute about a quarter of the human race. In fact, however, all the world will be vitally affected by the development of Chinese affairs, which may well prove a decisive factor, for good or evil, during the next two centuries. This makes it important, to Europe and America almost as much as to Asia, that there should be an intelligent understanding of the questions raised by China, even if, as yet, definite answers are difficult to give." - these words were written in 1921 by Bertrand Russell in his book "The Problem of China" - i.e. at a time when China was still in the midst of her century of humiliation.

“就算中国的问题只局限于国内、不对外产生影响，也有着重大意义，毕竟中国人约占全球人口四分之一。事实上，中国发展走向会深刻影响全世界，在接下来两百年里，无论结果好坏，都可能成为决定性力量。因此欧美和亚洲一样，都需要理性看懂中国面临的各类问题，即便当下很难得出确切答案。”这段话出自伯特兰·罗素1921年著作《中国问题》，彼时中国仍深陷百年屈辱之中。

 

inspirationalspirituality2690
I'm obsessed with the real issues. Isreal is a realistic threat to America

我更关心真正的核心矛盾。以色列实际上正在给美国带来隐患。

 

zackwang9314
China : do nothing and Win.
US : it is all China's fault

中国：静观其变，顺势得益。

美国：所有问题全都怪中国。

 

HendrikZ-z4s
China: “told you not to start a war, did you listen?”

中国：早就劝过不要开战，你们听得进去吗？

 

itdoesntmatterwhatyourname-v5f
Didn't know China was at war with anyone.

我没听说中国和任何国家处于交战状态。

 

livinghistoryinrealtime
War crimes to hide sex crimes is a pathological level of narcissism.

用战争罪行掩盖性犯罪，是病态的自负。

 

Geopolitics-Cricket-By-Nishant
USA fool....their biggest mistake that they distroyed India Trust and Partnership...
I will explain step by step
When Trump comes in power...whole america knows who is our real enemy.... number one...russia or china..... obviously China...
So Trump need to announce Trade war against the China but he did total nonsense....he just announced global trade war.... Even with their longest strong partners that is western countries and some Asian countries
Trump as president lose creditability....he just TACO.... again and again....zero long terms clarity
Trump act as business man rather than president of USA....he just create huge wealth through crypto using Pakistan.... pakistan has zero ability.... Trump think pakistan give benifit of rare earth of Balochistan....he is totally loss.... China try so hard from so long time even China not got anything how can USA think that pakistan give them.... pakistan just play double game to got money.....bcoz pakistan has no ability to handle their internal security system.... USA forgot it's own President remarks on Pakistan... famous hilleri clinton remarks... don't park snake in yr backyard...bcoz one day they come to bite you itself....how can USA so much idiot...

美国太糊涂了。最大的失误，就是毁掉和印度之间的信任与伙伴关系。我一步步说明。

特朗普上台时，全美国都清楚真正的头号对手，俄罗斯还是中国？答案显而易见是中国。

特朗普本应针对性发起对华贸易战，可他决策混乱，直接掀起全球贸易战，就连长期盟友西方国家与部分亚洲国家也未能幸免。

特朗普身为总统，信誉持续崩塌，政策反复无常，完全没有长远规划。

他更像一个商人，而非美国总统。他试图借助巴基斯坦，依靠加密货币牟利。可巴基斯坦自身实力薄弱。特朗普指望巴基斯坦提供俾路支斯坦的稀土资源，注定落空。中国深耕当地许久都没能有所收获，美国怎么会幻想如愿？巴基斯坦只是两头周旋换取资金，本国根本无力维持内部稳定。美国早忘了希拉里那句名言：不要把蛇养在后院，终有一天它会反噬主人。美国怎么会如此缺乏远见。

 

liqipedia
Let's remind ourselves that China is NOT at war with any country.

大家要清楚一点：中国没有和任何国家交战。

 

melvinpenman1102
And has not been since 60's

从上世纪60年代之后，中国就没有卷入战事。

 

71suezqz
War in 2026 comes in many forms many you will never know about

2026年的冲突形式多种多样，很多较量普通人无从知晓。

 

Samuelkings
China never asked America to start an illegal war, so leave China out of it

美国发动这场非法战争和中国无关，请不要强行把中国牵扯进来。

 

Anon-u3i
Never interrupt your enemy when they are busy destroying themselves.

当敌人忙着自我瓦解时，不要出手打断。

 

zaoan636
Americans, aren't U all sick? "The most beneficiary is China"? All wars America start are aimed either to hinder China's development or to stop China's rise. If U don't do any of them, the most beneficiary would be U America.

美国人，你们不觉得这套说辞很荒谬吗？张口就说“最大受益者是中国”。美国挑起的所有冲突，初衷要么阻碍中国发展，要么遏制中国崛起。倘若美国不主动挑起争端，最大受益者本该是美国自己。

 

Boingles206
The USA was always gonna fail if we ever had a racist in the White House who would take us backwards

如果白宫掌权者奉行种族主义、带领国家倒退，美国注定走向失利。

 

balso_snell
If you sit by the river long enough, you will see your enemies' corpses float by.

静坐河边，静待仇敌自陷泥潭。

 

cbwavy
China gets to sit back and watch their enemy self destruct

中国只需要静观对手走向自我崩溃。

 

ManeekanThanakunkittinan
China won big time. Trade partners want security and economic stability not wars and tariffs. China clearly has an open doors policy on business and very specifically not war.

中国收获巨大。各国贸易伙伴想要稳定的环境发展经济，不想要战火与关税壁垒。中国坚持经贸开放，主动避开战争。

 

dollar5010
China don't have to do a single thing. They just going to ignore that orange turd in our office and let him destroy the U.S. from within.

中国什么都不用做，只需无视那位备受争议的总统，任由他从内部瓦解美国。

 

sweetg1992
Even the EU is increasingly turning toward China. Donald Trump and his administration are among the most hated leaders in the Nordic region, and they are dragging the US down with them. I say this as someone living in Norway.

就连欧盟也越来越倾向和中国合作。特朗普及其政府在北欧广受反感，正拖累美国整体走向衰落。我目前定居挪威，对此深有体会。

 

MasterPortuguese
If the US doesn’t strengthen the school system in America, China will win without firing a missle. China has like 30 million engineers

如果美国不完善教育体系，中国无需发射一枚导弹就能占据优势。中国拥有大约三千万工程师。

 

heathwirt8919
Way number 1 is the US population electing a criminal conman to the office of the presidency and by this imbecile appointing a group of stooges to head all the important offices.

首要问题就是，美国民众选出一名投机政客担任总统，而这名领导者又安排一众亲信把持各大关键部门。

 

chaopapadopoulos
China, China, China ! Reporters should thank China. Without China, these people will not have jobs or topics that they can latch on a daily basis. These reporters need a topic that they can draw attention to themselves and show off their exstence and importance. How true of their reporting, analysis, or observation is not important at all. All they need to tell their audience is I GOT YOU A CHINA STORY! PAY ATTENTION TO ME!

中国、中国、又是中国！记者们反倒该感谢中国。要是没有中国，他们日常就没有话题可以报道，甚至可能丢掉工作。这群媒体人需要热点博取关注度，凸显自身价值。报道、分析是否客观真实根本无关紧要，他们只需要告诉观众：我挖到关于中国的新闻，快来关注我！