Is China testing Trump? | DW News

德国之声新闻：中国在试探特朗普吗？

Beiing has tested Trump's blockade, but not because it desparately needs the oil being carried out of the gulf. China expert Eyck Freymann says China is testing, probing the United States when its forces are stretched and its weapons stocks are running down.

We interviewed Freymann, a Hoover Fellow at Stanford University and an expert on global energy policies and China.

北京方面已然试探了特朗普的封锁举措，但此举并非因为中方迫切需要海湾地区外运的石油。中国问题专家艾克・弗莱曼表示，在美国兵力部署捉襟见肘、武器储备持续消耗之际，中国正借机试探、摸底美国的底牌。

我们采访了斯坦福大学胡佛研究所研究员艾克・弗莱曼，他深耕全球能源政策与中国相关领域研究。

当前霍尔木兹海峡局势混乱，航运往返、封锁措施落地又伴随航线重开，局势信号矛盾。伊朗率先封锁水道冲击全球经济，美国随后对伊实施封锁施压，中方被视作被迫卷入冲突的关键一方。一艘悬挂马拉维旗帜、中资所有且配备中国船员的运油船，曾在驶过霍尔木兹海峡后突然折返，该船因运输伊朗原油早已遭受美国制裁，这一举动引发外界对中方战略意图的讨论。

节目邀请斯坦福大学胡佛研究所学者、中国与全球能源政策专家艾克・弗莱曼展开分析。专家指出，多年来中国长期协助伊朗出口受制裁原油，此次船只折返是中方有意试探特朗普政府：一方面试探美方是否敢于拦截扣押中资船只，检验其封锁执行力度；另一方面摸底美军侦察、拦截与执法的实战能力。距离中美北京峰会仅剩数周，中方借中东局势持续试探美方底线与战略决心。

中方此举属于主动战略试探，借机观察美方应对危机的模式。长期以来，中国为伊朗提供多类关键支持，包括提供卫星技术、协助完善防空体系、助力研发弹道导弹，中伊合作由来已久。中方一贯将中东视作高危敏感区域，刻意避免直接卷入当地各类派系与地区冲突，对外塑造纯商业合作的中立形象，但深厚的中伊关系使其难以彻底置身事外。

在中方视角下，这场中东冲突的理想结局，是大幅消耗美国远程导弹、防空拦截弹等高端军备。美军弹药储备枯竭后，将无力干预亚太事务，中国便可不战而强化对周边区域的影响力。中国无意接替美国成为中东秩序管控者，而是希望长期削弱其全球影响力

以下是各国网友的评论：

michaeljiang960
China literally didn't do and say anything , just sat back watching these experts putting words into China's mouth.

中国全程没有任何行动、也没有发表表态，只是静观其变，任由这些专家随意曲解、臆测中国的想法。

kingme7307
oh yeah, they passed thru the us blockade the first day buddy

没错，这艘船第一天就直接穿过了美国的封锁线。

yesun6702
@kingme7307 dare the us wage war against china by hitting any Chinese ship?

美国真敢动手拦截中国船只，就此和中国开战吗？

lwty
Why there are so many experts on China with very superficial understanding of China

为什么这么多所谓中国问题专家，对中国的了解都如此肤浅？

next.institute
Well this one is spot-on. Just wait. Chinese economy is doing badly though. That might change their approach, but for now they are enjoying the show

这段分析说得很到位。拭目以待就好。不过目前中国经济处境不佳，后续或许会调整策略，但眼下中国正坐观局势发展。

ЕвгенийКоролев-ш9р
The United States has already declared a blockade of Cuba , but a Russian tanker with 100,000 tons of oil quietly arrived at a Cuban port.

美国早已宣布封锁古巴，可一艘搭载十万吨原油的俄罗斯油轮，还是顺利驶入了古巴港口。

happylucky-zh1oq
Because Trump allowed it, go find a corner to cry buttercup

这都是特朗普默许的，不服也只能暗自憋屈。

ЕвгенийКоролев-ш9р
@happylucky-zh1oq Because it 's for you that Trump is the master and you lick his feet . For independent countries such as Russia, China and a number of others, Trump is just the president of another country and no one else.

只有你才把特朗普当主子、一味讨好。对于中俄这类独立自主的国家来说，特朗普不过是别国总统而已。

jomo4435
100 billion for a one year US war on Iraq.... Lmao a 580 billion 40 day war with Iran ..... Talk about the US digging a hole

美国打伊拉克一年耗资一千亿美元。可笑的是，和伊朗开战短短四十天就要花五千八百亿。完全是在给自己挖坑。

jonathanjacob5453
Wealth transfer as the empire collapses.

帝国走向衰落的过程，就是不断消耗自身财力的过程。

johnfirst3986
Irresponsible behavior? So is that why china keep harrassing the philippines coast guard and bombarding water canon in their teritory?

指责别国行为不负责任？那中方频频对峙菲律宾海警、在对方海域使用水炮，又该怎么解释？

fabianabongo6284
CHINA is just serious when it comes to protecting its national interests and ready to use its navy to do so. The US interests does not come before Chinese interests.

中国只是坚决捍卫自身国家利益，必要时会出动海军。美国的利益，绝不能凌驾于中国利益之上。

squireson
I think your numbers might be a little off there.

我觉得你给出的数据不太准确。

ayakumarkarikuzhychn
Check who is selling the Venezuelan crude oil, after the upsetting Maduro administration, and to which account the sale proceeds go and who is deciding how much of that money goes to Delci Rodrigues government? There is not much distance the current Iranian regime following that path

查一查马杜罗政府动荡后，是谁在倒卖委内瑞拉原油、资金流向何处，以及谁在支配这笔收入。如今伊朗当局的做法，和这种模式相差无几。

jamesjonnes
China isn't having any of this US blockade nonsense.

中国根本不会理会美国这场荒唐的封锁行动。

corujariousa
It's all sick rhetoric and no substance with the degenerate in the White House. Bullies can never handle the ones who do not fear nor bow to them

白宫现任执政者只会满口歪理、毫无实干。霸凌者永远奈何不了不畏惧、不妥协的对手。

happylucky-zh1oq
Reality says otherwise, the sanctioned Chinese oil tanker Rich Starry turned around like a pussycat , no matter how much you hate USA it is still the most powerful country in the world and will remain in the foreseeable future. Go find a corner to cry little boy

现实恰恰相反。被制裁的中国“繁星号”油轮乖乖掉头避让。不管多反感美国，它目前仍是全球第一强国，短期内不会改变。不服也只能默默接受。

ryanhoviolin
just wait when China sends its aircraft carriers to the Strait to accompany their tankers. Let’s see who will run like a pussycat then.

等着看吧，一旦中国派出航母为油轮护航，到时候谁会狼狈退缩还不一定。

spianny
China hel Iran protect itself from illegal US and Israeli attacks isn’t just fine, it’s ethical

中国助力伊朗抵御美以的非法打击，不仅合理，更是合乎道义的选择。

MarloMitchell
thank you, i don't know why they don't mention how illegal everything USA is doing more. Other countries have the right to defend themselves.

说得没错。我不明白，大家为何很少提及美国种种违规行径。每个国家都有权自卫。

serena-yu
China helps Iran, Pakistan, North Korea and Libya to develop their nukes. Some succeeded, some didn't.

中国协助伊朗、巴基斯坦、朝鲜、利比亚研发核武器，部分国家研发成功，部分未能实现。

Marchollaaa
Yes, China is hel to improve the whole world, while The Simpsons country is destroying

中国一直在推动全球发展，而美国却到处制造破坏。

esense9602
And China is considered as bad guy when the country didn't even fckng start a war

中国从未主动挑起过任何战争，却总被抹黑成反派。

MartinOlminkhof
China possibly attacking Australia is a bit of a stretch

说中国会攻打澳大利亚，完全是无稽之谈。

Drownedinblood
Literally zero reason to attack Australia unless the uses it.

只要澳大利亚不主动挑衅，中国完全没有理由动手。

sameerdulal
Australia along with South Korea are the nearest well-armed US allies in the Pacific. So, when China attacks Taiwan, US will jointly work with Australia in defence. So, I think China being wary of Australia is indeed natural.

澳大利亚和韩国，是美国在太平洋地区军备完善的核心盟友。一旦台海爆发冲突，澳方必然协同美国介入。因此中国对澳保持警惕，合情合理。

spades.unfairness.protagonist
I think the point is that if the US isn't heavily invested in the Pacific, China does what it likes. No need to attack Australia or any other states, just do what it wants without fear of reprisal.

核心问题在于：一旦美国放松亚太布局，中国就会掌握主动权。无需攻打澳大利亚等国，就能不受制约地维护自身诉求。

dayeeoliver
Trump can't even open the strait of Melania. Trump is a clown

特朗普连自家的事都处理不好，就是个闹剧总统。

Mcf412
He can open Melania but only by paying a lot of money

他也就只能靠金钱维系私人关系罢了。

gamaigia9270
The US sells arms and intelligence to other countries, so why can't China ?

美国常年对外出售军火、共享情报，凭什么中国就不行？

MjolnirFeaw
We've repeated enough that selling to a country at war does not make us part of that war.

道理已经说得很清楚：向交战国家出口物资，不等于直接参战。

corujariousa
Do what I say not what I do... American history and society are full of hypocrisy, and ignorance. Under the control of the degenerate in the White House, those usual traits have reached unbearable levels.

典型的双重标准。美国的历史与社会，充斥着虚伪与偏见。而现任白宫当局，更是将这些问题无限放大。

RefiDarma
Because big yahu Will threat Trump with some his name on the files

背后有把柄拿捏着特朗普，这才是关键原因。

SomnathDe-h7d
Trump / USA has become a laughing stock.The world doesn't show earlier seriousness about USA .

特朗普政府以及如今的美国，早已沦为国际笑柄。各国也不再像以往那样敬畏美国。

jeannie-bw6ee
You talk about the USA and our president.. you don't even know him.. United States has a lot of power.. that people don't know about.. for you you should shut your mouth online

随意抨击美国和总统，只是源于无知。美国隐藏的实力远超外界想象，网络发言应当保持理性。

happylucky-zh1oq
Reality says otherwise, the sanctioned Chinese oil tanker Rich Starry turned around like a pussycat , no matter how much you hate USA it is still the most powerful country in the world and will remain so in the foreseeable future. Go find a corner to cry little boy

现实一目了然。被制裁的中国繁星号油轮只能妥协掉头。就算反感美国，也无法否认它当下的霸主地位，短期无法撼动。没必要强行辩解。

TrollPriestZandum
As an American, born and raised, i want to buy a Chinese EV. We need their high speed charging network too.

我是土生土长的美国人，我想买中国电动汽车，也很需要中国的快充配套技术。

captives6479
Teslas and Korean EVs are better. You don't need Chinese EVs.

特斯拉和韩国电动车综合实力更强，没必要选中国电车。

Robin.Burke-Optical_Collusion
@captives6479 It's an issue of affordability for many Americans, not quality. Surprise fact, most Americans are effectively working poor and dependent on short term credit card debt to get by from month to month.

对多数美国人来说，关键是价格，不是质量。事实上，大部分普通美国人收入微薄，只能靠信用卡透支维持日常开支。

justintindall9515
What's all this 1 talk? China is just sick and tired and so is the rest of the world of the United States using its military and financial power as a stick to beat everyone over the head with. Their unprovoked aggression towards Iran is just front and center at the moment.

没必要吹嘘美国天下第一。全世界都厌倦了美国靠着军事和经济实力到处施压。如今无端针对伊朗的挑衅，就是最典型的例子。

diogopinto6039
Remember that this guy is an American giving an AMERICAN view of the facts. USA was never the world police, they are imperialists. China’s never said or made any moves to be a hegemon in the region. USA is just afraid China would do the same as they do, but they are different.

要清楚，这位专家的观点完全站在美国立场。美国从来不是世界警察，而是彻头彻尾的霸权国家。中国从未谋求地区主导权，美国只是以己度人，刻意抹黑中国。

michaelanderson3771
You are focussing on oil , but a huge portion of Aluminium, LNG, Urea fertiliser, Helium ships ex the Persian gulf. US grain was a big export into the region but now less and less. Trump started a war that never needed to start as he was pressured by Israel on false grounds. A repeat of the Iraq WMD fallacy. It is all a distraction for the Trump Epstein files.

大家只关注石油，却忽略波斯湾还大量出口铝、液化天然气、尿素化肥、氦气等物资。美国粮食对该地区的出口也在逐年缩减。特朗普受以色列裹挟，借着虚假理由挑起冲突，和当年伊拉克大规模杀伤性武器的骗局如出一辙，本质是为了转移国内丑闻的舆论视线。

willardSpirit
How can we spend $700-800 billion a year on defense and nearly depleting our missile stockpile in a month's time?

美国每年军费高达七八千亿美元，为何短短一个月，导弹储备就濒临耗尽？

mikeb5664
Did you know some of that money is used to subsidize grocery prices for members of the US military? They blow up stuff on the other side of the world which raises gas and food prices for you, while your tax dollars make sure they get food much cheaper than you do.

很少有人知道，部分军费会用来补贴美军物资采购。美军在海外发动冲突，推高全球油气和粮食价格，普通民众负担加重，军人却能享受低价物资补贴。

veggemeyer8103
11 aircraft carriers, the most jets in the world, constantly running around the globe providing security for some deadbeat country, etc. Missiles take time to produce, and tech is always changing. You can't stockpile old tech.

美国坐拥十一艘航母、全球规模第一的战机编队，常年全球部署。但导弹生产周期漫长，技术持续迭代，老旧装备也无法长期大量储备。

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