What Does the Iran War Mean for China? | Vantage with Palki Sharma | N18G

帕尔基：伊朗冲突对中国意味着什么？

While China has slammed the US-Israel war on Iran, many commentators have noted the lack of belligerence in Beiing's reaction. What does this war mean for China? How are they navigating the energy crisis? Palki Sharma tells you.

帕尔基：尽管中国强烈谴责美以对伊朗发动的战争，但许多评论人士指出，北京方面的回应并未表现出一贯的强硬姿态。这场冲突对中国意味着什么？中国又将如何应对此次能源危机？

One country has been surprisingly silent through all of this, and that is China. While it has offered support to Iran and spoken out against American and Israeli aggression, its response has been unusually muted, a departure from its typically assertive diplomacy. The question remains: why? And what is at stake for China?

To begin with, West Asia is of critical importance to Beiing, and Iran holds an even more vital position within the region. China has signed a 25-year agreement with Iran, pledging around $400 billion in investment over the period. In short, Iran represents China’s long-term strategic bet in West Asia, and in return, China secures access to Iranian oil. Roughly half of China’s crude oil imports come from West Asia, and Iran alone exports around 1.4 million barrels per day to global markets, with its supplies still flowing. Notably, the Strait of Hormuz remains open to Iranian vessels even as it is closed to other ships.

Beyond this, China has built up an enormous oil reserve, reportedly holding about 1.4 billion barrels — enough to sustain its needs for many months. China also possesses a large renewable energy base, with 31% of its electricity generated by wind, solar, and hydropower, meaning the energy impact of the conflict on Beiing remains limited. In this regard, China is in a stronger position than other Asian nations.

在这一系列事态中，有一个国家的态度出人意料地沉默，这个国家就是中国。尽管中国对伊朗表示了支持，也公开谴责了美国与以色列的侵略行径，但其回应却异常克制，一反其惯常的强硬外交姿态。问题在于：中国为何如此？这场冲突对中国而言，又有哪些核心利益攸关？

首先，西亚地区对北京至关重要，而伊朗在该区域的战略地位更是举足轻重。中国与伊朗签署了一份为期25年的合作协议，承诺在此期间向伊朗投资约4000亿美元。简言之，伊朗是中国在西亚的长期战略押注，作为回报，中国得以稳定获取伊朗的石油资源。中国约一半的原油进口来自西亚，其中伊朗每日向全球市场出口约140万桶原油，且目前供应仍在持续。值得注意的是，霍尔木兹海峡虽对其他国家船只关闭，但对伊朗本国船只始终保持开放。

除此之外，中国已建立起规模庞大的石油储备，据报道储量约14亿桶，足以支撑国内数月的需求。中国还拥有强大的可再生能源体系，风电、太阳能与水电发电量占全国总发电量的31%，这意味着此次冲突对中国的能源冲击相对有限。在这方面，中国的处境优于亚洲其他国家。

Politically, however, the situation presents a mixed picture, with both advantages and risks. Starting with the risks: if Iran were to collapse, West Asia would likely move toward a unipolar system dominated by Israel and the United States, which would likely push China out of the region or at least severely reduce its influence. Another concern is supply chain disruptions. Even with large oil reserves, China’s economy is still affected by war-driven price hikes, and a higher import bill would add strain to an already slowing economy. China’s economic model depends on global stability, open supply lines, steady demand, and seamless trade — all of which are undermined by a major war.

On the positive side, the conflict is further weakening the US-led alliance. A recent joint statement by Europe, Canada, and Japan stopped short of direct criticism of the US but still expressed concern over the escalating conflict and called on all nations to uphold international law. This reflects a broader trend: US allies, particularly in Europe, have grown uneasy with Trump’s approach and are seeking closer ties with China. Many European leaders visited Beiing earlier this year, a clear sign of shifting alignment.

Secondly, the war is depleting US military resources. As the conflict continues, the US is rapidly expending its ammunition stockpiles. For example, the US produces only about 80 Tomahawk cruise missiles per year, yet it fired roughly 400 within the first 72 hours of strikes — equivalent to five years of production in just three days.
然而从政治层面看，局势利弊交织，机遇与风险并存。先看风险：一旦伊朗崩溃，西亚很可能走向由以色列与美国主导的单极格局，这或将把中国彻底挤出该地区，至少会大幅削弱其地区影响力。另一重担忧是供应链中断。即便拥有巨额石油储备，战争引发的油价上涨仍会冲击中国经济，更高的进口成本将给本就放缓的经济增添压力。中国的经济模式高度依赖全球稳定、开放的供应链、稳定的需求与顺畅的贸易往来，而一场大规模战争恰恰会彻底破坏这一切。

从积极方面看，这场冲突正进一步削弱美国主导的同盟体系。近期，欧洲、加拿大与日本发表联合声明，虽未直接批评美国，但仍对冲突升级表达了担忧，并呼吁所有国家维护国际法。这反映出一个更广泛的趋势：美国的盟友，尤其是欧洲国家，对特朗普的政策路线日益不安，正寻求与中国建立更紧密的联系。今年早些时候，多位欧洲领导人密集访华，清晰地展现了这种阵营转向。

其次，战争正在快速消耗美国的军事资源。随着冲突持续，美军弹药库存急剧消耗。以“战斧”巡航导弹为例，美国每年仅生产约80枚，却在首轮打击的72小时内发射了约400枚——短短三天就耗尽了五年的产量。

Thirdly, the conflict provides China with a valuable learning opportunity. By observing how the US deploys its firepower, maneuvers its military assets, and selects its initial targets, China gains real-world insights it would not otherwise acquire, given that Beiing has not fought a war in decades while the US has been engaged in constant conflicts.

In summary, it is too early to label China a clear winner or loser in this war. A short conflict would ease China’s energy supply concerns, while a prolonged one would exhaust its main rival, the United States. Either way, one thing is evident: Beiing is not taking direct military action to assist Iran. It may provide political or intelligence support, but when it comes to actual combat, Iran stands alone.

再者，这场冲突为中国提供了宝贵的实战学习机会。通过观察美国如何部署火力、调动军事资产、选定首轮打击目标，中国获得了难得的实战经验——毕竟中国已数十年未经历战争，而美国却始终深陷各类冲突。

总而言之，现在断言中国在这场战争中是赢家还是输家还为时过早。短期冲突可缓解中国的能源供应压力，长期战争则会耗尽其主要对手美国的实力。无论如何，有一点显而易见：中国不会采取直接军事行动援助伊朗。中国或许会提供政治或情报支持，但在实际作战层面，伊朗只能孤军奋战。

以下是印度网友的评论：

Avatar_2025
China is building bridges and US is collapsing them.

中国在搭建桥梁，美国却在摧毁桥梁。

FirstCitizen-hk5gh
I love made in china

我爱中国制造。

JB-63CADDY
The new San Francisco-Oakland Bay Bridge eastern span was Why China was Used: California state officials selected the Chinese company because it was significantly cheaper (saving an estimated $400 million) and because officials argued no U.S. fabricators had the immediate capacity or space to create such large, complex sections at the time.

新旧金山-奥克兰海湾大桥东段之所以找中国建造：加州官员选择中国企业，是因为价格低很多（预计省下4亿美元），而且当时美国没有工厂有能力、有场地造出这么大、这么复杂的构件。

yellow13foxtwo
China gets free weapons system tests for future conflicts..

中国等于免费做了未来战争的武器系统测试。

joem0088
Sun-Tze : Wng without fighting is the supreme art.

孙子说：不战而屈人之兵，善之善者也。

williamchoi6902
China used brain without war with America already win quietly . Trump used weapons no brain lost anything

中国靠脑子，没跟美国开战就悄悄赢了。特朗普只懂用武力，不动脑子，什么都没得到。

bluefanning
The US aims to bring down the current Iranian regime, thus eliminating any exstential threat to Israel. This would mean the alliance would be firmly established and control the Middle East. However, both Israel and Trump have clearly underestimated Iran. Without deploying a large ground force, there will be no results. But once ground troops are involved, it will become another Afghanistan, and Iran is much larger and more dangerous than Afghanistan. This could truly be the final battle for this declining empire. If Trump is smart enough, he should find a suitable reason to withdraw completely while the sunk costs are still relatively low. However, this also means Israel will be consumed by Iranian wrath... revenge will continue until the victory set by the Iranians, or until facing an even stronger force of nature. This force can only be the full intervention of China and Russia, but to achieve this, Trump would have to give up a huge bargaining chip. Furthermore, the war must have progressed to a truly uncontrollable state, for example, Israel using weapons of mass destruction.

美国想推番现伊朗政权，消除以色列的生存威胁。这样美以联盟就能站稳脚跟，控制中东。但以色列和特朗普明显低估了伊朗。不派大规模地面部队，根本没用。可一旦派地面部队，就会变成另一个阿富汗。而伊朗比阿富汗大得多、也难打得多。这可能真会成为这个衰落帝国的最后一战。特朗普要是够聪明，就该趁损失还不大，找个合适理由彻底撤军。可这也意味着以色列会遭到伊朗疯狂报复……伊朗的报复会一直持续，直到他们取得胜利，或者遇到更强大的力量。这股力量只能是中俄全面介入，但要走到这一步，特朗普必须付出巨大代价。而且战争必须发展到完全失控的地步，比如以色列使用大规模杀伤性武器。

Exmuslim-e6h
Ahh actually it's the other way around, china was dependent on iran and venezuela oil

其实恰恰相反，是中国依赖伊朗和委内瑞拉的石油。

michihofer587
Russia has been supplying oil China for a long time. Look after your poor India first then think about China.

俄罗斯长期给中国供应石油。先管好你们贫穷的印度，再来操心中国。

nmew6926
Yes in absolute terms China is the biggest importer of Oil. This is because China is the largest economy. But in percentage only 15% of China energy needs are imported compared to Japan, S Korea, India, EU which depend between 45 to 90% on imported energy. So Palki, you should better worry for India. Already after only 3 weeks war, there is a shortage of LPG gas in India.

按总量算，中国确实是最大石油进口国，因为中国经济体量最大。但按比例算，中国只有15%的能源靠进口。而日本、韩国、印度、欧盟，进口能源占比高达45%到90%。所以你还是多担心印度吧。战争才刚打3周，印度就已经缺液化石油气了。

countryside-j7t
The United States and Israel invaded Iran, India was a bystander, and India betrayed Iran. Iranian warships participated in military exercises in India and were bombed by the United States as soon as they left port. Iranian warships had no weapons. During this period, Indian Prime Minister Modi called Israel his father country and India his mother country, and even visited Israel

美国和以色列攻打伊朗，印度在一旁旁观，还背叛了伊朗。伊朗军舰曾在印度参加军演，刚离开港口就被美国轰炸，军舰上根本没有武器。这期间，印度总理莫迪还称以色列为父国、印度为母国，甚至亲自访问以色列。

adamsaciid4919
Another victory in china is they can sell now millions of solar panels around the world and millions of ev cars

中国还有一大胜利：现在能向全球卖出数百万块太阳能板、数百万辆电动汽车。

SilvioBarreiros
The United States is asking China for help in this war, which shows that the United States isn't as strong as it seems.

这场战争里美国还在求中国帮忙，说明美国并没有看上去那么强大。

MarkWriter-z5j
The entire world is buying its ‘sanctioned’ oil and gas from Russia. Who are you kidding?

全世界都在买俄罗斯“被制裁”的石油天然气，你骗谁呢？

alexzhao489
China is just a peaceful country and that is not a fault

中国只是一个爱好和平的国家，这并不是错。

pinoyautotechmechanic
China is a big bully on its neighbours

中国总欺负周边国家。

IamHandsome4u
India has not even helped 1% of wt china has done for Iran in this war and they hv the audacity to question china on hel iran. LMAO

这场战争里，印度对伊朗的帮助连中国的1%都不到，居然还有脸质疑中国对伊朗的援助，哈哈。

Linkwii64
China future proof their energy. They are the winner from this because more people will be switching to electric vehicles now.

中国在为未来能源安全做准备。这次他们才是赢家，因为会有更多人转向电动汽车。

adamsaciid4919
Why china lose when they getting oil without any attack lets talk about india

中国安安全全拿到石油，凭什么说中国输了？有本事说说印度。

craiglarge5925
China is wise not to stick its nose in where it is not needed, it is a real shame USA does not follow suit.

中国很明智，不插手不该管的事。可惜美国做不到。

adaml3809
China this, China that. Take care your own country for a change.

天天中国这、中国那，有时间先管好你自己国家吧。

diaonilaomuchouhai
if america and israel which it claimed the most powerful country and weaponize countiries in the world cant even handle iran, how the fuck they can make an invasion to CHINA huh with more than 5000 years of history lol

美国和以色列自称全球最强、武器最先进，连伊朗都搞不定，还想入侵有5000多年历史的中国？可笑。

lightjunction7373
It is another loss for China, and consequently a win for India

这对中国又是一次失败，对印度则是胜利。

AliRaza-t1i9f
The war has added the trouble more for the people of world.

这场战争给全世界人民都添了麻烦。

philip7415
You can feel How jealous she is about China long vision strategy

能看出来有些人有多嫉妒中国的长远战略。

deepam3857
There is a fine line between jealousy and admiration..it all depends upon the perspective u choose

嫉妒和欣赏只在一念之间，全看你用什么角度看。

001llaff3
China behaves like a gentle adult.

中国表现得像个稳重的成年人。

lindamkhwebane
Not only that but a sober and matured adult. Aluta continua Iran. Watching from South Africa

不止稳重，还清醒、成熟。伊朗加油，南非网友在此关注。

siamiam4306
US only produces 80 Tomohawks a year.

美国一年只生产80枚战斧导弹。

babaaaron
China is waiting for the US to exhaust themselves... I hope they don't

中国就在等着美国把自己耗干……希望别这样。

incognito4344
Even India is not hel Iran.., India was getting oil from Iran.., their workers are benefiting working for Arabs .., where is the loyalty

连印度都不帮伊朗。印度以前一直买伊朗石油，印度人还在阿拉伯国家打工赚钱，忠诚在哪？

GreatAmit-e3l
China must come forward to rescue Iran from Trump's paw

中国必须站出来，把伊朗从特朗普的魔爪中救出来。

stone1227
China has access to cheap Russian oil that other countries don't have, which gives Chinese manufactured products additional advantage in the global market

中国能拿到其他国家没有的廉价俄罗斯石油，这让中国产品在全球市场更有优势。

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