As East Asia Ages, Who Will Defend It? - Japan, South Korea, China | CNA Correspondent

东亚老龄化加剧，谁来守护这片土地？日本、韩国、中国视角

East Asia is greying fast. From Japan to South Korea and China, the region is bracing for a demographic time bomb ticking ever louder. For years, attention has centred on the social and economic impact of rapidly ageing societies. But there’s another unsettling question. As the pool of young people shrinks, what happens to a nation’s ability to defend itself? What if countries simply run out of soldiers to stand guard over their borders?

东亚正快速步入老龄化。从日本到韩国，再到中国，这片地区正面临着一颗滴答声愈发急促的人口定时炸弹。多年来，外界的关注焦点一直集中在社会老龄化加速带来的社会与经济影响上。但还有一个令人不安的问题亟待解答：随着青年人口规模不断萎缩，一个国家的国防能力会受到怎样的冲击？如果各国连守卫边境的士兵都面临短缺，又该如何是好？

以下是各国网友的评论：

dannydawg2274
bring in the passport bro's

把那些跨国找对象的老哥喊来。

МихаилМосков-ь7с
Welcome to development!

这就是经济发展要付出的代价！

leonlim3302
Modern people will not give birth anymore, can’t blame them they are smart and want to prioritise their own quality of life

现在的人都不想生孩子了。别怪他们，人都精，只想先把自己的日子过好。

FlowSharp
There wont be a quality of life when there isn’t any population left to maintain and progress a fruitful economy. Thats what people dont get

要是没人了，谁来维持经济、推动发展？到时候哪还有什么生活质量。好多人就是想不明白这点。

SamsonOhsem
Asia's people very hard working

亚洲人干活都特别卖力。

Dominus_Potatus
Because most of those countries have no social security as good as, let's say, Germany.

因为这些国家的社保，根本比不上德国那样的水平。

NINJA_AMARA
@Dominus_Potatus these asian countries will get wealthy in coming years

这些亚洲国家，再过几年肯定能富起来。

yihchiehseeto225
@NINJA_AMARA getting poorer because tax dollars go to America for their weapons systems… to be used against China. Paid in full, delivered after 2030

只会越来越穷。因为税收的钱都给美国买武器了，这些武器还用来对付中国。钱都全款付了，武器却要到2030年后才交货。

harbinger6562
I Ain't gonna lie see Can you steal balancing the Weather thieves

说实话，你们这帮搅局的，真能扭转局势吗？

YaoiMastah
The European nations had this problem too. Or rather, there were a couple of times in history, where they realised that the amount of young men in their countries was not enough to fill the ranks of their desired armies.
They resorted to creating foreign legions and hauling staggering amounts of recruits from their overseas colonies.
Now, most Asian countries lack colonies. But the idea of starting a foreign legion, or outsourcing certain tasks to foreign PMCs is one that is relatively unheard of in Asia.
All the while, as we speak, hordes of young Nepalese men are training hard to join the ranks of foreign Gurkha regiments.
What would be against it to start a foreign legion?
Or how about a 6 month conscription in exchange for waiving university tuition and other fees for foreign students?

欧洲国家也遇到过这问题。准确说，历史上好几次，他们发现本国年轻人不够，招不够想要的兵数。于是他们就组建外籍军团，从海外殖民地拉来大批新兵。

现在亚洲国家大多没有殖民地。但组建外籍军团，或者把部分任务外包给外国私人军事公司，这想法在亚洲几乎没人提过。

就在现在，还有大批尼泊尔年轻人拼命训练，想加入外国的廓尔喀兵团。

那为什么不搞个外籍军团呢？或者，让外国留学生服六个月兵役，就免他们的大学学费和其他费用，这办法怎么样？

ExleGreatsword
I dont think Chinese ppl need that narrative since the US aircraft carriers are literally in south china sea. Trump might have done the same thing to China like Venezuela if they didnt invest in military

我觉得中国人不吃这一套。毕竟美国航母就实实在在停在南海。要是中国不搞军事建设，特朗普说不定会像对委内瑞拉那样对付中国。

yihchiehseeto225
The build up of military forces in China & N.Korea is a pending threat to everyone in ASEAN they have to be stopped… so the narrative goes. BUT American businesses keep offshoring their factories to China ?

有种说法是，中国和朝鲜扩充军备，对东盟所有国家都是潜在威胁，必须加以制止。可美国企业还一个劲地把工厂迁到中国，这算怎么回事？

CnTieu-z7n
Those old aircraft carries are worthless against a real war against china.

真和中国打起来，那些老旧航母根本没用。

Baz.007
@CönTieu-z7n Whatever carriers are useful or not, that may be debatable. What's not is that in this day and age. Carriers still have the symbol of gunboat diplomacy for many nations.

航母有没有用，这事可以争论。但毋庸置疑，这年头，航母对很多国家来说，依然是炮舰外交的象征。

pineapplesareyummy6352
@Baz.007 True. Though it is correct that "gunboat" diplomacy only works against WEAK nations who have no means to defend against carriers. In reality, in a REAL industrial war, these ships will be sunk 1,000 km from even reaching the coasts of China or Russia. (The proxy war in Ukraine is just a limited war fought on a shoestring budget, and Russia isn't even implementing conscription, so I don't count it as a real industrial war, but it is just testing grounds).

说得对。炮舰外交也就对那些没能力对抗航母的弱国管用。现实中，要是爆发真正的工业级战争，这些航母在离中俄海岸还有一千公里的地方，就会被击沉。（乌克兰代理人战争只是场低预算的有限战争，俄罗斯甚至都没征兵，所以我不把它算成真正的工业级战争，那只是个试验场而已。）

MKay-dd7rh
Indonesia and the Philippines, loads of young people

印度尼西亚和菲律宾，有的是年轻人。

ianhomerpura8937
The Philippines also has a problem recruiting more young people for its armed forces as well

菲律宾想招更多年轻人参军，也遇到了麻烦。

yihchiehseeto225
During the first Silk Road , trade settlements were setup all around ASEAN . For almost a thousand years, there were no invasions or colonialization of any ASEAN Countries. … not even with the creation of BRICS

古代丝绸之路时期，东盟各地都有贸易据点。差不多一千年来，没有任何东盟国家被入侵、被殖民。就算金砖国家成立了，也还是这样。

ShenpheneEchavia
china will replace its people with robots, like robot soldiers, robot workers among others. chinese citizens should sacrifice for the party.

中国会用机器人取代人，比如机器人士兵、机器人工人之类的。

TheFlagUnit
solution- don’t go to war with China

解决办法就是——别和中国打仗。

JoonWee-q2k
No one wants to have a war with China. China maybe should stop being a bully.

没人想和中国打仗。或许中国该停止恃强凌弱了。

joek7031
@JoonWee-q2k maybe dont let the real bully setup a couple of his 750 military bases around china and constantly tesspass chinese territory

或许该让那个真正的恶霸，别在中国周边建750个军事基地，别总闯入中国领土。

albertsunaga8802
The Korean and Japanese are catching up with China in terms of AI, autonomous assets and softwares. However, China is leading on humanoid robots and other robots in general by a very large gap.

韩国和日本在人工智能、自主装备和软件方面，正在赶上中国。但在人形机器人和其他各类机器人领域，中国的领先优势非常大。

pineapplesareyummy6352
I think China has already demonstrated what the future will be - robots powered by AI. It already feels that way in the real economy. Entire factories are now run by robots with just a handful of workers on the factory floor, producing the same amount of "stuff" as before. The age of human labour in mass production is already over. What matters is how many robots a country has installed. It's not much of a stretch to imagine the same will happen with national defense. You may still need humans. But if one human in charge of 100 robots effectively fights like 100 humans, then "manpower" isn't what people think it is. A real industrial war would be drone swarms, robot soldiers, autonomous ships, autonomous planes, hypersonic missiles, and all powered by computers.

我觉得中国已经展示了未来的样子——由人工智能驱动的机器人。实体经济里已经是这个趋势了。现在整座工厂都由机器人运作，车间里只有寥寥几个工人，生产的东西却和以前一样多。大规模生产依赖人力的时代，已经结束了。关键看一个国家部署了多少机器人。不难想象，国防领域也会变成这样。或许还是需要人，但如果一个人操控100个机器人，能发挥出100个人的战斗力，那所谓的“人力”，就不是人们理解的那样了。真正的工业级战争，会是无人机群、机器人士兵、自主舰艇、自主战机、高超音速导弹的天下，这一切都由计算机驱动。

yihchiehseeto225
The cash registers of Asia for America, are Japan, S.Korea, Singapore & Philippines (Billions held in American Banks). All are being pressured to buy American weapons or be allowed to build Bases in their countries. Pay up in full for a weapons contract that may not be fulfilled… ? To defend yourself is aggression? Because it doesn’t allow America an easy win. What kind of logic is that?

对美国来说，亚洲的“提款机”就是日本、韩国、新加坡和菲律宾（上千亿资金存在美国银行）。这些国家都被施压，要么买美国武器，要么允许美国在本国建军事基地。签了武器合同，全款付了，结果可能拿不到货？自己防卫就是侵略？就因为这让美国没法轻松取胜？这是什么逻辑？

tofindtrek
don't worry, China hs over 700Million young men potentialy conscripted for army, robots will replace human production in factory during the war.

别担心，中国有超过7亿年轻男性，都能征兵。战争期间，工厂里的人力生产也会被机器人取代。

CommanderBacara
don't worry...US will take over

别担心，美国会接手一切的。

inxousinx7993
army size is only a matter of budget, if they focus the budget to hire people then the people will come well except japan

军队规模只和预算有关。只要把预算砸在招兵上，自然有人来。日本除外。

Edward-p9y7c
For Korea, if they unite most of their current problem will be solved.

对朝鲜半岛来说，只要南北统一，现在的大部分问题都能解决。

crazylittlebigthings
Problem is these three countries chosed to be homogenous.

问题是这三个国家，都选择了单一民族的路线。

Shaftalooooo
Korea must unite and ask the US to leave. Let there be peace. A united Korea makes more sense than going to extinct by an rapidly aging population.

朝鲜半岛必须统一，还要让美国撤走。让和平到来吧。统一的朝鲜，总比因为人口快速老龄化而走向消亡要靠谱。

Junokaii
I'm particularly worried about south korea. Its population will be similar to the north by 2100 due to population collapse.

我特别担心韩国。因为人口暴跌，到2100年，韩国的人口会和朝鲜差不多。

jillthompson6110
China's "modern weapons" were proven to be complete crap recently, with wars in Thailand/Cambodia, and Venezuela

最近的泰柬冲突和委内瑞拉局势，已经证明中国的“现代化武器”全是垃圾。

NicholasWilliams-x9m
It's a poor defense strategy investing into weapons, the best strategy is to make other countries people live good lives, create stability and prosperity for everyone so war doesn't happen at all. Still invest into information tech, but for the purpose of making people's lives better and live healthier, more brain power = less babies. more diverse fun society, less aggression, more cooperation. But yes invest into autonomous weapons, thats a good thing.

把钱投在武器上，是糟糕的国防策略。最好的策略，是让其他国家的人民过上好日子，为所有人创造稳定和繁荣，从根本上避免战争。还是可以投资信息技术，但目的是改善民生、让人们更健康。受教育程度越高，生育率就越低。社会越多元、越有趣，就越少冲突、越多合作。不过，投资自主武器倒是件好事。

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