中国如何崛起为超级大国，以及其经济的未来走向

How China Became a Superpower and What Comes Next for Its Economy

中国如何崛起为超级大国，以及其经济的未来走向

China’s entry into the WTO in 2001 accelerated its rise as a global manufacturing and technology powerhouse, fueled export growth, and helped stabilize global demand during the financial crisis. As China expanded Belt and Road investments, advanced in EVs and AI, and entered a sharper economic rivalry with the United States, its property slowdown and domestic inequality exposed new vulnerabilities. Enda Curran, Elizabeth Economy, and Afsaneh Beschloss explain China’s past 25 years and what its next phase means for the global economy.

2001 年中国加入世界贸易组织，推动自身迅速崛起为全球制造业与科技强国，不仅带动了出口增长，还在金融危机期间助力稳定了全球需求。随着中国扩大 “一带一路” 投资布局、在电动汽车和人工智能领域实现技术突破，同时与美国的经济竞争日趋激烈，国内房地产市场下行和收入分配不均的问题，也暴露了其经济发展的新短板。恩达・柯伦、伊丽莎白・伊科诺米与阿夫萨内赫・贝施洛斯三位学者，剖析了中国过去 25 年的发展历程，解读其经济下一阶段的发展态势对全球经济的深远影响。

恩达・柯伦聚焦中国21世纪前25年经济发展的关键节点与转折，他认为2001年中国加入世贸组织是具有里程碑意义的决策，既为跨国企业打开中国市场大门，也让中国商品得以远销全球，成为中国崛起的重要起点。在全球金融危机期间，中国推出的大规模经济刺激计划，通过投资基建拉动内需与经济活力，不仅稳固了自身发展，更助力全球经济企稳，这一阶段也推动中国跃居世界第二大经济体。此后，中国通过“一带一路”在全球资本短缺时期输出资本、投资海外港口、铁路等基建项目，进一步提升国际影响力。但他也指出，中国的发展是一把“双刃剑”：随着产业链升级，中国与部分西方经济体形成竞争，双向自由贸易环境发生变化；同时，房地产行业调控收紧后陷入持续低迷，成为制约中国经济增长的新挑战。而疫情期间，中国抓住全球发展停滞的窗口期，在电动汽车、锂电池等领域实现跨越式发展，成功跻身全球领跑者行列。

伊丽莎白・伊科诺米从转型特征、经济现状和国际定位等维度解读中国发展，她强调中国在21世纪前25年实现了质变：2000年时，中国还是人均GDP仅1000美元、自行车产量远超汽车的经济体，彼时正主动调整国内政治经济体系以适应国际社会需求；如今，中国人均GDP已增至13000美元，成为全球最大的电动汽车生产、消费和出口国，国际角色也从规则接受者转变为规则制定者，开始要求国际社会适应自身发展。她观察到当下中国经济呈现鲜明的“双面性”：一方面，科技领域的高端工厂自动化程度高、管理精细，官方和企业对技术竞争充满信心，坚信自身发展路径正确；另一方面，城市经济活力不足，普通民众消费意愿未回升，中产阶层规模扩张陷入停滞，整体呈现“有产者快速发展、无产者缺乏获得感”的两极分化状态。

阿夫萨内赫・贝施洛斯的观点侧重于中国的技术突破与国际影响力的两面性，她直言西方对中国的认知存在滞后性——多数人仍停留在“中国是基础消费品生产国”的旧印象，却忽视了中国已在电动汽车电池、新材料、清洁能源等高端领域实现超越，全球对中国技术和产品的依赖程度正不断加深。她认为中国的发展优势在于独特的“政府+市场”协同模式，政府集中资本投向高端技术领域，与私营部门形成合力，这与美国近年在关键领域投入不足的做法形成鲜明对比，也是中国能实现技术突破的核心原因。在国际层面，她指出“一带一路”和“数字丝绸之路”显著提升了中国的技术与经济影响力，比如华为占据非洲70%的4G市场，中国卫星系统可与GPS抗衡；但同时，部分参与国对中国的商业运作模式存在不满并发起抗议，而这些国家选择中国投资的核心原因，是难以从其他渠道获得同等规模的资金支持。此外，她提到中国重塑国际体系的成效低于预期，多数国家并不愿用现有国际体系换取中国主导的新体系。

以下是各国网友的评论：

johnnyq4260
Schrödinger’s China: Collapsing and taking over the world at the same time.

薛定谔的中国：一边说它要崩溃，一边又说它要称霸全球。

firefly4326
The western fake news is terrible and incoherent. News keep propagating China collapse, then keeps spreading China prowess of superpowers as if its scary with creepy music.

西方的假新闻又离谱又混乱。一会儿鼓吹中国崩溃，一会儿又大肆渲染中国的超级大国实力

aparnarai3708
@firefly4326 Perpetuate the news that China will collapse to justify lack of reforms. Perpetuate news that China is taking over the world to increase military spending and cut social spending. Perfect strategy.

反复炒作中国崩溃论，为自己不改革找借口。大肆宣扬中国称霸论，为增加军费、削减社会福利找理由。这招真是高。

Steve-pq7cb
Yes, Monday, Wednesday, Friday, China collapsing; Tuesday, Thursday, Saturday, China taking over the world; Rinse Sunday.

可不是嘛，周一三五说中国要崩溃，周二四六说中国要称霸全球，周日歇一天，下周接着来这套。

araara4746
We can see the same pattern in a lot of western propaganda, for example saying Russia is losing against Ukraine, but at the same time saying Russia will take over all of Europe.

西方很多宣传都一个路数。比如一边说俄罗斯在俄乌冲突中节节败退，一边又说俄罗斯要吞并整个欧洲。

polysporin8332
Hehe yeah the west is drinking from their own punch bowl of propaganda, they have confused themselves. The west's politicians and think-tanks, Not knowing what is real or their own manufactured propaganda anymore.

哈哈，可不是嘛。西方自己炮制的宣传套路，自己先入了坑，把自己都绕晕了。西方的政客和智库现在都分不清，哪些是真相，哪些是自己编的谎言。

callingthenuke448
This is what you call an economic cognitive dissonance if a trillion dollar trade surplus is collapsing then I guess the whole world especially Europe is spiraling into the abyss

这就是所谓的经济认知失调。要是说坐拥万亿美元贸易顺差的国家都算崩溃，那恐怕整个世界，尤其是欧洲，早就跌进无底深渊了。

whitemoon5752
The WTO opportunity was open to everyone, not only China. It was open to India , Asia Afric etc. Just putting WTO as a catalyst ifor China’s growth is not correct.

加入世贸组织的机会是面向所有国家的，不只是中国。印度、亚洲、非洲等国也都有份。把中国的发展只归因于世贸组织这个催化剂，这种说法根本站不住脚。

Jay-v5k8n
Not the first time in Chinese history

这在中国历史上可不是头一回了。

V-9871
According to economic historians, China had been a 'super power' until the mid 19th century. The current trend is just reverting back to the norm established for centuries prior.

经济史学家称，中国在19世纪中叶前一直是超级大国。如今的发展趋势，不过是回归延续了数百年的常态而已。

amunra5330
As soon as I heard Hoover Instituation I was turned off. Basically she gors to China to see if if its collapsing.

一听到胡佛研究所的名头，我就没兴趣了。说白了，她去中国就是为了找证据，证明中国要崩溃。

lambertgiang
She did see China Collapsing into Traffic Chaos in the Golden Week of National Holidays that the Rail & Air Passengers set Records Year after Years

她确实看到中国“崩溃”了——国庆黄金周的交通一片繁忙，铁路和航空客运量年年创下新高。

BoetHuman-pk8it
They dont f talk about the f warmongering usa

他们压根不提美国这个好战分子。

schoolwork6968
You mad that the Chinese economy is vulnerable to the us navy?

你是不是气不过中国经济会受美国海军的制约？

AyushAyush739
Yeah china is totally not sending fighter jets into the waters of Japan , South Korea, Taiwan or scaring its small neighbour like Vietnam, Phillipines, Malaysia or Indonesia.

可不是嘛，中国才没有派战机进入日本、韩国、中国台湾周边海域，也没有吓唬越南、菲律宾、马来西亚、印度尼西亚这些小邻国呢。

guens01
When it comes to China, even the westerners who seem to know the basics about China tell boldfaced lies with a straight face. The first woman lie about the Belt in Road, the second woman repeat the overcapacity lie as if it is true. What is going on? No wonder the West is going to hell.

一谈到中国，就算是那些看似对中国略知一二的西方人，也能面不改色地睁眼说瞎话。一个女的扯“一带一路”的谎，另一个女的把产能过剩的谬论当真理反复说。这都什么事儿啊？难怪西方要走下坡路。

lijackson-x6r
If they are very honest, they won't have the 2nd chance to get invited on TV to make comments on China. It takes time for them to educate the American people, bit by bit, and step by step.

他们要是敢说真话，就再也没机会上电视点评中国了。他们要一点一点、循序渐进地给美国民众洗脑。

MFShro0m
There are many kool-aid salesmen and even more who still haven’t worked all the kool-aid they drank growing up out of their system

现在有太多贩卖歪理的人，还有更多人从小到大被这些歪理洗脑，至今都没清醒过来。

Niubility-f9l
India joined the WTO earlier than China. India is a de ocratic country and an ally of the West. Why doesn't the United States help India? It's truly a disaster to be your Western ally

印度加入世贸组织比中国还早。印度是民诸国家，还是西方盟友。美国怎么就不帮印度呢？当西方的盟友真是倒了八辈子霉。

kommenkcmousa7388
Less than 35 yrs They are so so ahead of usa and the world its unbelievable.

不到35年的时间，他们就远远领先于美国和世界其他国家，简直难以置信。

dysonyamagata1133
Is China really surpassing the United States and the rest of the world? That claim is utterly ridiculous—it's merely a familiar propaganda tactic used by the U.S. to instill fear in its own citizens and allies, as if China were about to storm into their homes tomorrow like Western colonial powers once did to the rest of the world.

中国真的在赶超美国和其他国家吗？这种说法简直荒谬至极。这不过是美国惯用的宣传伎俩，用来吓唬本国公民和盟友，就好像中国明天就要像西方殖民列强当年那样，闯进他们家里烧杀抢掠似的。

The reality is that China remains a develo country with a per capita GDP of just $13,000. China hasn't actually invented anything original—electric vehicles, batteries, solar panels, nuclear energy, robotics, AI, semiconductors—all were originally invented by the U.S. or the West.

事实是，中国仍是发展中国家，人均国内生产总值仅1.3万美元。中国根本没有任何原创发明——电动汽车、电池、太阳能板、核能、机器人技术、人工智能、半导体，这些全都是美国或西方率先发明的。

China isn't nearly as powerful as you might imagine. Its strength lies simply in having a large, hardworking population. Our factory workers routinely labor 10–12 hours a day for wages only one-fourth of what American workers earn. Our engineers often work 72-hour weeks for less than one-fifth the salary of their American counterparts.

中国远没有你想象的那么强大。它的优势不过是拥有庞大而勤劳的人口。我们的工厂工人每天通常要工作10到12个小时，工资却只有美国工人的四分之一。我们的工程师每周经常工作72小时，薪水还不到美国同行的五分之一。

We relentlessly cut costs at every stage of production to deliver affordable goods to ordinary working families around the globe—and to support the livelihoods of our nation’s 1.4 billion people. China’s competitive edge is straightforward: it’s sheer diligence!

我们在生产的每个环节都拼命压缩成本，为的是给全球普通工薪家庭提供实惠的商品，也是为了养活本国14亿人民。中国的竞争优势很简单，就是靠实打实的勤奋！

ydliu264
To understand China, the easy way is to read the China National Anthem.

想要读懂中国，简单的办法就是去读《中华人民共和国国歌》。

AlejandroPikoulasPlata
China needed only 20 years to become a middle-developed country and be competitive in many technology fields...I bet China will become a high-developed country and a powerhouse in every technology field within 10 years.

中国只用了20年就跻身中等发达国家行列，还在多个科技领域具备竞争力。我敢打赌，未来10年内，中国会成为高度发达国家，在所有科技领域都占据领先地位。

billlau1142
China was a superpower multiple times and held that position for over 2000 years.

中国曾多次成为超级大国，而且占据这一地位长达2000多年。

justchess4981
They won't they just copy from usa and make it cheaper name a product by china which is cutting edge or others can't build.

他们才不会创新，只会照搬美国的技术，然后把成本压低。你倒是说说，中国有什么尖端产品是别国造不出来的？

TheGiantBunnysaid
@justchess4981 Yes, they've copied so much that they now have so much copied technology that we just so happened to not have at all. There is a grain of truth in what you're saying, but that outdated information can only go so far.

是啊，他们抄来抄去，结果抄出来的技术，好多都是我们自己压根没有的。你说的话有那么点道理，但这种老黄历早就过时了。

a9udn9u-vanced
"China not interested in increasing domestic consumption"
"China interested in advancing their technologies means they want world dominance"
These are very strange mindsets

“中国没兴趣扩大内需”

“中国发展科技就是想称霸世界”

这种想法简直离谱。

stevenzheng5459
Domestic consumption in China has been steadily increasing. Problem is China simply cannot domestically consume their way out of their current level of manufacturing output. Even with 1.4 billion people. When a country is "the World Factory" with enormous productive capacity, most of the goods still depends on export. Deindustrializing developed countries forgot what it's like. England was the first industrialized nation. There was a time when England needed to export their coats, hats, and ceramics worldwide. And this was way back in the late 1800s, when the world population was approaching 1 billion.

中国的内需一直在稳步增长。问题是，就算有14亿人口，中国也没办法单靠内需，消化掉当前的制造业产能。一个国家要是成了“世界工厂”，拥有庞大的产能，大部分商品就只能依赖出口。那些去工业化的发达国家早就忘了这种滋味。英国是世界上第一个工业化国家，曾经也得把生产的服装、帽子、陶瓷卖到全世界。那还是在19世纪末，当时全球人口才刚接近10亿。

svenhsu
It’s about the education system

关键还是在教育体系。

muhammaduddin9268
The Chinese are very organised and intelligent this is their real power.

中国人做事有条理，又聪明，这才是他们真正的实力所在。

AdamDinh-m3y
They have flying cars

他们都有飞行汽车了。

marianam8643
The Chinese miracle, the way in which this country organized itself, planned, strategized and protected itself and came up on top is truly remarkable. It was 10 years ago that china’s economy topped the US by GDP by PPP. It is sad that it is only now that most people notice.

中国奇迹真的了不起。这个国家靠统筹规划、战略布局和自我保护，一步步崛起。其实早在10年前，中国的购买力平价国内生产总值就已经超过了美国。可惜的是，大多数人到现在才注意到这一点。

badbad-cat
If I see China's PPP based GDP double that of the USA or China's nominal GDP surpasses the USA, I'd go watch Gordon Chang's 'China-collapse' videos. It'd be so funny

要是哪天中国的购买力平价国内生产总值达到美国的两倍，或者名义国内生产总值超过美国，我就去看章家敦的“中国崩溃论”视频。那场面肯定笑死个人。

eliso5973
WTO needed China to join, more than China needed WTO to rise. Wake up.

是世贸组织更需要中国加入，而不是中国更需要靠世贸组织崛起。醒醒吧。

Voxabonable
You don't see Chinese officials saying China is a superpower.

你什么时候见过中国官员说自己是超级大国？

intuneorange
If I had the epstein files hanging over my head , I would consider major actions to distract the people from my moral shortcomings. It's much better to use diplomacy than to waste money on more military threats

要是我头上悬着爱泼斯坦档案这种定时炸弹，我也会搞点大动作，转移民众对我道德污点的注意力。用外交手段解决问题，总比砸钱搞军事威胁强得多。

jarednovel
It should be remembered that China once dominated the global trade through the silk road then it went through periods of decline and isolation. China also experienced foreign invasions, subjugation and humiliation. What is happening now is China reclaiming its position at the top. Which means the world is just witnessing history repeating itself.

我们应该记住，中国曾通过丝绸之路主导全球贸易，后来经历了衰落和闭关锁国，还遭受过外敌入侵、压迫和屈辱。如今正在发生的，不过是中国重新夺回世界之巅的位置。这意味着，世人正在见证历史的重演。

jarednovel
China has created a lot of wealth doing business with Africa because China took Africa seriously. Europe and the US on the other hand have been ignoring Africa and even tried to erase it or just treating it as source of cheap raw materials.

中国通过和非洲做生意赚了不少钱，因为中国真心重视非洲。反观欧美国家，一直忽视非洲，甚至想把非洲从视野里抹去，或者只把它当成廉价原材料的供应地。

danwelterweight4137

87% of everything manufactured in China is consumed in China. 70% of everything manufactured IN Germany, Italy, South Korea and Japan is consumed outside of these countries. Yet the last lady is saying that there is over capacity in China

China only has 1 military base outside of China in Djibouti.

China has never fought a single war outside its hemisphere in its entire 5000 years

US has 900 military bases spread around the world including 300 encircling China... US has fought over 250 interventions around the world since 1990

Yet she says China is interested in world hegemony.

The reporter doesn't even scrutinizes any of her ridiculous statement, and claims.

He just takes it as if she some kind of truth giving guru

This is the quality of the reporting you find in Western mainstream and this exactly why the West will lose to China.

You claim China is the close tota tarian dystopian society but Most Chinese know everything about the United States and the West.

They know all the name of the celebrities, the cities, name of famous senators, events, celebrations... Hundreds of millions of Chinese have been to the west as tourists. Chinese know about Western countries history, name of cities, rivers, geography

But Westerners don't know jack about China. Never been to China, don't know anything about Chinese culture, history, way of thinking, political system, celebrities, pop culture, fashion, geography.

Nothing.

They don't know nothing

中国生产的商品，87%都在国内消化。而德国、意大利、韩国和日本生产的商品，70%都销往海外。可刚才那位女士却一口咬定中国产能过剩。

中国在海外只有吉布提这一个军事基地。纵观五千年历史，中国从未在所在半球之外挑起过任何一场战争。

而美国在全球坐拥900个军事基地，其中300个就用来包围中国……自1990年以来，美国在全球发起的军事干预行动多达250余次。

可这位女士却说，中国企图称霸世界。记者对她这些荒诞不经的言论和主张，连一丝一毫的质疑都没有，反倒把她奉为洞悉真相的宗师。

这就是西方主流媒体的报道水准，这也正是西方终将败给中国的原因。

你们口口声声说中国是个封闭的威*反乌托邦社会，可事实上，大多数中国人对美国和西方的一切都了如指掌。

他们知道西方的明星、城市、知名议员的名字，清楚西方的各类事件与庆典……数亿中国人曾以游客的身份到访西方，他们了解西方国家的历史，熟悉那些国家的城市、河流与地理风貌。

反观西方人，对中国却一无所知。他们没去过中国，不了解中国的文化、历史、思维方式、政治制度，也不知道中国的名人、流行文化、时尚潮流和地理概况。

什么都不知道。简直是一无所知。