三泰虎

韩国兴衰史:政变频发、贸易破裂、遭美国背弃

The RISE and FALL of South Korea: Coups, Trade Breakdown, and Abandonment by the USA

韩国兴衰史:政变频发、贸易破裂、遭美国背弃

South Korea is without exaggeration one of the greatest economic miracles in history. Since the 1960s, it has multiplied its GDP per capita more than 225 times. But what is truly impressive is where it started from. South Korea was one of the poorest places in the world with 30% of the population illiterate and people surviving on humanitarian and economic aid from the United States. Even sub-Saharan countries such as Sudan were wealthier. Hell, even socialist North Korea was more prosperous.

These days, however, the story is very different. South Koreans are 50 times richer. And it's not just a matter of surpassing poor countries. South Korea has left almost the entire world behind. Even Japan, its former colonizer. Korea overtakes Japan in per capita GDP on improved trade terms.

毫不夸张地说,韩国是历史上最伟大的经济奇迹之一。自 20 世纪 60 年代以来,其人均 GDP 增长了超过 225 倍。但真正令人惊叹的是它的起点。当时的韩国是世界上最贫穷的地区之一,30% 的人口是文盲,民众依靠美国的人道主义和经济援助为生。就连苏丹等撒哈拉以南非洲国家都比它富裕。说实话,就连社会主义的朝鲜当时都更繁荣。

然而如今,情况早已截然不同。韩国人的财富增长了 50 倍。而且这不仅仅是赶超贫穷国家那么简单。韩国几乎把全世界都甩在了身后,甚至包括它曾经的殖民宗主国日本。凭借更有利的贸易条件,韩国的人均 GDP 已经超过了日本。

以下是各国网友的评论:

Verunka-r1o
A society that hates children has bigger problems than economy.

一个不待见孩子的社会,问题可比经济问题严重多了。

 

jyy9624
Love family and children but failing governance leads to prudent abstinence

就算热爱家庭和孩子,可治理不力,大家也只能谨慎选择不生孩子。

 

marvelv212
Your society hate children?

你们社会是讨厌孩子吗?

 

LaserKid-mww
@jyy9624 Women want to be better off than their mothers. That was easy to do when the country was going from peasants farming to a modern country 80s and 90s, hard now that S. Korea is just yet another developed country trying to sell IP. That is why we have seen this trend replicated everywhere, no matter what culture and we don't have any universal magic tricks to keep the growth going forever. We are seeing different countries try out different strategies to get through this "plateau" problem

女性都想过得比妈妈好。八九十年代韩国从农耕社会变成现代国家时,这很容易实现。但现在,韩国只是又一个靠卖知识产权的发达国家,想变好就难了。这就是为什么不管什么文化,各地都出现了这种情况,我们也没通用的高招能让经济一直涨。现在各国都在试不同办法,度过这个“平台期”。

 

arnoldvezbon6131
Pretty sure their biggest problem is the birth rate.

我敢打包票,他们最大的问题就是出生率。

 

enzinioB
Authorization and AI would cover a lot of that it would be more social then economical problem.

审批流程优化和人工智能能解决不少问题,这更多是社会问题,不是经济问题。

 

Carbon6886-w9v
@BenzinioB nope. Who's gonna consume those products?

没用。那谁来买这些产品啊?

 

BenzinioB
@Carbon6886-w9v the other 8+ billion people around the world

世界上其他80多亿人啊。

 

peggandwhiskey
I think it may be solved if they sign plaza accords 2.0

我觉得要是他们签个《广场协议2.0》,说不定能解决问题。

 

campion04
Not pretty sure. It’s 100% the only problem that matters.

不是“敢肯定”,这100%就是唯一关键的问题。

 

꿈빛나래
출산율은 전세계적으로 감소하는 추세에요. 한국은 출산율 급락이 심했지만, 최근 14개월 동안 반등하고 있습니다^^ 걱정 마세요. 이대로라면 2025년 합계 출산율은 대만이 한국보다 낮아질 예정입니다^^

全球出生率都在降。韩国出生率之前跌得厉害,但最近14个月一直在回升哦, 别担心。照这趋势,2025年中国台湾的总和生育率估计会比韩国还低

 

꿈빛나래
사회 전체적으로 3명의 아이요?ㅋㅋㅋㅋ 지금 그런 국가는 아프리카 빼고는 없어요. 저출산은 전세계적인 현상이잖아요. 인구는 자연적으로 감소할 거예요. 그게 마냥 나쁜 건 아니에요 친구. 현실을 직시하세요. 유럽도 저출산이 심각해지고 있잖아요. 이미 1.xx인 곳도 많고요. 남의 나라 걱정할 건 아닌 거 같아요. 행운을 빌어요.

全社会平均生3个孩子?哈哈哈哈,现在除了非洲,没哪个国家能做到。低生育率是全球都有的情况啊。人口本来就会自然减少,这也不全是坏事,朋友。面对现实吧。欧洲的低生育率也越来越严重,好多地方都降到1点几了。还是别瞎操心别人国家了,祝你好运。

 

꿈빛나래
@campion04 여성들이 사회에 많이 진출하기 때문에, 이전처럼 많은 아이를 낳는 건 힘들어요. 거의 불가능하죠. 현실을 받아들여야 해요. 아이를 키우는 건 쉬운 일이 아니에요.

现在女性都大量出来工作了,想像以前那样多生孩子根本不可能。得接受现实,养孩子可不是件容易事。

 

campion04
we don’t need to argue. Wait 2 generation when the North cross into the south with 100 unarmed soldier and conquers the south and their 7 citizens. South Korea is a failed state and the South Koreans in this chat are proving why.

没必要争。等两代人之后,朝鲜派100个没武器的士兵过来,就能占领韩国,到时候韩国可能就剩7个公民了。韩国就是个失败国家,这聊天里的韩国人刚好证明了为什么。

 

꿈빛나래
@campion04 아이고 불쌍해라ㅠㅠ.. 한국에 대한 열등감이 엄청나네ㅜㅜㅜ ㅋㅋㅋㅋㅋㅋㅋ 너 어디 나라 사람이냐? ㅋㅋㅋㅋ 니가 아무리 망하라고 빌어봤자 한국은 안 망해~ 세계 15위 안에 드는 경제 대국이거든

哎呀,你好可怜啊,你对韩国的自卑感也太强了吧。 哈哈哈哈哈哈 你是哪国人啊?哈哈哈哈 不管你怎么咒韩国完蛋,韩国都不会倒的~ 我们可是世界前15的经济大国。

 

gallasebiyo4427
Political instability? You're about 5 months late to the SK dissing party mate. They just got one of the best trade deals with the USA at the APEC summit too, plus nuclear submarines

政治不稳定?兄弟,现在黑韩国都晚了5个月。他们刚在APEC峰会上和美国签了超划算的贸易协定,还拿到了核潜艇呢。

 

Xentradi97
I was gonna say, this content sounds quite dated. Challenges still persists sure, but I think right now things are somewhat different.

挑战确实还在,但现在情况已经不一样了。

 

TheGeoLenz
Coups and trade crises may have shaken South Korea, but its long-term success came from education, innovation, and sheer determination.

政变和贸易危机可能曾动摇过韩国,但它能长期成功,靠的是教育、创新和一股子狠劲。

 

nighty9338
And Governament Intervation Against Liberalism.

还有政府对自由主义的干预。

 

kobusvanrensburg4092
They just need some Somali engineers, Afghan architects, Pakistani doctors and Syrian lawyers. It's worked everywhere else.

他们只要招点索马里工程师、阿富汗建筑师、巴基斯坦医生和叙利亚律师就行。这办法在别的地方都管用。

 

marvelv212
We have those execept they all work low paying jobs. At least mostly.

我们这儿是有这些人,但他们都在干低收入的活,至少大部分是这样。

 

 

Nick-kn6il
This is a sarcastic comment of you haven't figured it out yet haha

要是你没看出来,跟你说下,这是反讽的话,哈哈。

 

Voltaicz
@Nick-kn6il I know that but just saying that’s a rare combination

我知道是反讽,但我就是说这组合太少见了。

 

Mu3az523
It's not a miracle if the country is subsidized and sanctions free

要是一个国家有补贴、还没制裁,那它的成功根本不算奇迹。

 

nimlod
A country without subsidies and regulations cannot produce results without academic enthusiasm, smart people, and discipline. Industrialization doesn't just happen. They are the only country to go from a poor country to a developed country after World War II.

一个国家要是没补贴、没监管,再没学术热情、聪明人和好纪律,根本搞不出成果。工业化不是凭空来的。他们是二战后唯一一个从穷国变成发达国家的国家。

 

jamsbong
Korea can thank USA for this.

韩国这一切都得感谢美国。

 

howardnoh1329
Yet few countries attain success.

但能成功的国家没几个。

 

greendragonspirit1646
America pumped billions of dollars into the South Korean economy , in exchange for South Korea to help America to slaughter Vietnamese, during the Vietnam war. It's no "miracle" , but sugar daddy America's money , that contributed to South Korea's success.

越战期间,美国给韩国砸了几十亿美元,换韩国帮着屠杀越南人。韩国的成功根本不是什么“奇迹”,就是靠“金主爸爸”美国的钱堆出来的。

 

obinnaogueri
The south Koreans would have been rich anyway, with or without American money. America was irrelevant in the matter

不管有没有美国的钱,韩国人早晚都会富。美国在这事儿上根本不重要。

 

DavidHalko
@obinnaogueri - Vietnam war provided a lot of money for SK, from allies

越战给韩国带来了不少盟国的钱。

 

BladeTheWatcher
LOL no, the AI bubble can only give some extra months to South Korea, and it will make the fall harder. Come on, decline doesn't have to be catastrophic, as we see in the example of Japan.

哈哈,不对,人工智能泡沫只能给韩国续几个月的命,到时候跌得更惨。拜托,衰退不一定就得是毁灭性的,看看日本就知道了。

 

CARL_093
from nothing to topnotcher in world economy

从一穷二白到世界经济尖子生。

 

baamonster2
Who wants to stay at home and raise babies when you invested 20 years of your life studying to get a good career?

你花了20年读书就为了找份好工作,现在让你在家带孩子,谁愿意啊?

 

bibby3027
Exactly. A society that prioritizes grades and career over family and kids is surprised that no one is starting families.

可不是嘛。一个把成绩和事业看得比家庭孩子还重的社会,居然还惊讶没人愿意成家生子。

 

baamonster2
@bibby3027 it’s because they prioritize kids and family that they don’t have kids. They know they can’t give them the standard of life they want for them.

正因为他们重视孩子、重视家庭,才不敢生孩子。他们知道自己给不了孩子想要的生活。

 

arnoldvezbon6131
@baamonster2 This is the lamest cop out ever. Where did this idea that if you cant treat your kids with the royal life style it's not worth it? So dumb.

这借口也太烂了。谁告诉你“不能给孩子过皇室般的生活就不如不生”的?简直离谱。

 

bbokdoong
South Korean stock market went up almost 90% ytd. They secured 260k Nvidia GPUs to develop the sovereign AI model and automate their factories. Yes, they are finished

韩国股市今年涨了快90%。他们还弄到了26万块英伟达显卡,用来搞自主人工智能模型、实现工厂自动化。是啊,他们完了

 

jasonchang8601
Dont act like the US is the only option for South Korea.

别搞得好像美国是韩国唯一的出路似的。

 

obinnaogueri
They aren't that tight with asia, and as weird as it sounds, not that close to Asia, there's no where else

他们和亚洲关系不咋近,虽然听起来奇怪,但确实不怎么融入亚洲,没别的地方可去。

 

cdb5961
A product getting tariffed doesnt mean it wont sell in the US market.

产品被征税,不代表在美国就卖不动了。

 

raylee5030
South Korea prospered because of the Vietnam war. US relied on South Korea for logistic support such as supply chains, ship servicing and building, and R&R activities. Likewise, Japan benefited greatly from the Korean war.

韩国能富,全靠越战。美国当时靠韩国搞后勤,比如供应链、修船造船、还有士兵休整这些。日本也是一样,靠朝鲜战争发了大财。

 

magnvss
South Korea’s demographic crisis is arguably more exstential than its past political instability. If affects everything, even the exstence of Korea as a country. Not mentioning it is like complaining about a bad dinner on the Titanic.

韩国的人口危机,比过去的政治不稳定还致命。这事影响所有方面,甚至关系到韩国这个国家能不能存在。不提这事儿,就跟在泰坦尼克号上抱怨晚餐不好吃一样可笑。

 

driasalta4834
Endless growth is a Unicorn that we are told is real, thing are more cyclical. Because of this belief we have an economic system that literally treats people like livestock

大家总说“无限增长”是真的,其实这就是个神话。事物发展本来就是有起有伏的。就因为信了这套,我们的经济体系简直把人当牲口对待。

 

HistoryoftheEconomy-u2c
Nations don’t have friends — they have interests. Who do you think came out of this stronger?

国家之间没有朋友,只有利益。你觉得谁最后从中赚大了?

 

SeeLasSee
If the two Koreas were to abruptly unified, after some hiccups the new nation could really thrive.

要是朝韩突然统一,虽然会有段波折,但这个新国家肯定能发展得很好。

 

Arvandor81
People need to be more concerned about this. When SK's population and economy reach a tip point and they can no longer support themselves, China and the West will start to fight over the scraps in a war that could potentially be catastrophic.

大家得更重视这事。等韩国的人口和经济跌到撑不下去的临界点,中国和西方就会开始抢地盘,到时候可能会引发灾难性的战争。

 

xanderreyno
Korea is great, i am sure they will be able to bounce back.

韩国很厉害,我相信他们能东山再起。

 

larryc1616
Only if they have more babies 2.1 ratio or mass immigration. Same with Japan and Europe. Mass immigration to keep what you have or suffer permanent decline.

除非他们把生育率提到2.1的更替水平,或者搞大规模移民。日本和欧洲也一样。要么靠大规模移民保住现状,要么就一直衰退下去。

 

yongbinsong9676
Europe first must worry about itself, because the old continent is visibly collapsing and leaving behind on the stage.

欧洲得先顾好自己,这个老大陆明显在垮台,已经跟不上时代了。

 

DavidHalko
Europe has the same problem as SK

欧洲和韩国面临一样的问题。

 

AnimeLiterature
The stage itself is collapsing. There won't be any stage.

舞台本身都在塌,以后根本没什么舞台可言了。

 

brianhawkeswood1887
No one has mention how intelligent the people are. They value education unlike western countries that has over the past three generations destroyed their own education systems.

没人提韩国人多聪明。他们重视教育,不像西方国家,三代人下来把自己的教育体系全毁了。

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