India’s Economy Faces Global Shocks: Top Economists Speak Out | India Conclave 2025 Mumba

印度经济面临全球冲击：顶尖经济学家发声

At a recent meeting, top economists discussed India’s economy as global trade barriers and pressures grow. Dr. Sajid Z. Chenoy from JPMorgan said emerging markets like India face three big challenges: the decline of globalization, a “China shock 2.0” where China redirects exports to Asia, and automation reducing job opportunities. They noted that India’s service exports, like IT and call centers, are more at risk than goods, as services make up a big part of the economy.

在近期的一场会议上，随着全球贸易壁垒加剧、压力上升，顶尖经济学家就印度经济展开讨论。

摩根大通的萨吉德·Z·乔诺伊博士表示，印度等新兴市场面临三大挑战：一是全球化进程放缓，二是“第二次中国冲击”——中国将出口重心转向亚洲，三是自动化导致就业机会减少。

他们指出，印度的IT、呼叫中心等服务出口比商品出口面临更大风险，因为服务业在印度经济中占比很高。

以下是印度网友的评论：

ashras2510
In India, there’s no ease of business, only corruption at every level of governance,”

在印度，根本没有所谓的“营商便利”，只有各级政府部门的腐败。

sivasaras12
Pl don’t make swee remarks IF there is corruption you and I are responsible for

请别一竿子打翻一船人。要是真有腐败，你我都有责任。

trends2morrow107
Since 2014 it has got worse.

2014年之后，情况变得更糟了。

bryan69in2002
why are you not migrating as yet. And if you are online which means there is internet. Political comment

那你怎么还不移民？而且你能上网，说明印度是有网络的。别只会发表这种政治评论。

hokz7283
take criticism for good and impetus for correction. We have been complaining and wailing about the past weak governance. If you want strongman rule than first follow china style of uprooting corruption and misuse of power with iron hand. This is one primary reason of brain drain.

要把批评当成好事，当成改进的动力。我们一直对过去治理不力的情况怨天尤人。要是想有强权领导，就得先学中国那样，用铁腕手段根除腐败、整治权力滥用。这也是人才外流的一个主要原因。

AarPee-y8n
This panel is loaded with BJP acolytes. So the discussion will be all about pro BJP's economic policies and how wonderful they are . Why talk about 2047 when approx 80% pf India's population is below the poverty line TODAY. These Jumlas are being foisted on the uneducated masses of India and will continue to do so so that the BJP can continue unchecked. However the people of India are waking up to this JUMLEBAAZ sarkar. SAAVDAAN!!

这个专家小组里全是人民党的追随者。所以讨论内容肯定全是吹捧人民党的经济政策，说这些政策多好多好。现在印度大约80%的人口还处于贫困线以下，为什么要去谈论2047年的目标呢？这些空话正在灌输给印度没受过教育的民众，而且还会一直灌下去，好让人民党为所欲为。不过印度民众已经开始认清这个“只会说空话的政府”了。警惕啊！

MPB.491
None of the speakers are from Indian companies...The panel here only sees from their company point of view they are all MNC's

发言的人里没有一个来自印度本土企业，这个专家小组只会从自己公司的角度看问题，他们全是跨国公司的人。

banditonehundred
Good observation. We don’t need foreigners to tell us about foreign investment

观察得好。我们不需要外国人来告诉我们什么是外国投资。

venkateswarluchaluvadi7540
True Indian economists can’t dare to talk like this.

真正的印度经济学家可不敢这么说话。

KrishnaKumar-ic2bo
Very disappointed to see that the economists are only looking at exports based on the historic numbers and are not looking at the changed scenarios of fast growth in income and GDP in emerging and least developed nations of the world in the next 25 years and are focussed on only the headwinds coming from the developed nations. Is it conformance bias?

看到这些经济学家只依据历史数据来分析出口，我非常失望。他们完全没看到未来25年里，全球新兴国家和最不发达国家收入与GDP快速增长的新情况，只盯着发达国家带来的阻力。这难道是确认偏误吗？

parvswami
they thinks dollar printing machine will keep running

他们以为美元印钞机可以一直开下去。

Ravishns
I completely agree with you.

我完全同意你的看法。

keekikaaka6687
I think the economists are correct. They are not merely historic numbers they are also current export numbers. The develo nations growing needs are not going to offset the damage caused by the US tariffs overnight. It maybe a long term possibility which is not guaranteed and certainly not available at the moment. To tap into that future opportunity Indian economy should pass the current issue.

我觉得这些经济学家是对的。他们引用的不只是历史数据，也是当前的出口数据。发展中国家日益增长的需求，不可能一夜之间抵消美国关税带来的损失。这或许是个长期可能性，但无法保证，眼下肯定是做不到的。印度经济要想抓住未来的机会，得先度过当前的难关。

inoshine5196
You are living not with todays realities

你活在过去，根本没认清当下的现实。

x6950hhhh
Foreign expert in India saying India capable to retaliate but indian working for foreign company say India can't survive... Now this show enemies of India actually working inside India for foreigners

在印度的外国专家说印度有能力反击，但为外国公司工作的印度人却说印度撑不下去，这说明印度的敌人其实就在印度国内，为外国人做事。

biswajitbordoloi8092
It is foolishness for 3 trillion dollar economy to retaliate against 30 trillion dollar economy.. when India is living on FDI and foreign Remittance without having a proper manufacturing sector.

一个3万亿美元规模的经济体，去反击一个30万亿美元规模的经济体，这太愚蠢了。印度连完善的制造业都没有，还得靠外国直接投资和海外汇款过活。

x6950hhhh
it's not about how big is the size of the economy it's about what they dependent on us... 40% medicine for US came from India meanwhile they just sending us less critical high end product only for luxury lovers would look for and they not worry much about spending on those kind of items example like apple iphone and 80% of indian are not depends on that and this go across into many US sector in India... another shock is that this is not new for India.. Trump have hit India with heavy tariffs before in 2018 for first time but India openly retaliate with massive tariffs on 28 US industry without hesitate that literally shake US market especially on tech industry but US tariff wasn't hurt India because average person India not depends US imported products also for average business they have other alternative with strong domestic supply chain support since than trump not very openly retaliate on India after came to realize... This is why India not worry about US tariff especially today India far more large than in those years.

关键不在于经济体量多大，而在于他们有多依赖我们。美国40%的药品都来自印度，而他们只给我们出口那些非必需的高端产品，只有追求奢侈品的人才会买，比如苹果手机，而且80%的印度人都用不上。这种依赖还存在于美国在印度的多个行业。另外，印度对这种情况并不陌生。2018年特朗普就曾首次对印度加征高额关税，但印度毫不犹豫地对美国28个行业加征大规模关税作为反击，这着实震动了美国市场，尤其是科技行业。但美国的关税并没有伤到印度，因为普通印度人不依赖美国进口产品，普通企业也有其他选择，还有强大的国内供应链支持。从那以后，特朗普意识到这一点，就没再公开对印度采取报复措施了。这就是为什么印度不担心美国的关税，尤其是现在的印度，比那时候强多了。

ChuckUstaad
US is collapsing.....Dollar is sinking.....Bhakts are not denying this fact

美国正在崩溃，美元正在贬值，印度人民党的狂热支持者也没法否认这个事实。

ChuckUstaad
But this 'so-called' $ 30 Trillion is a 'Hot Air Balloon" running on PRINTED Currency notes

这个“所谓的”30万亿美元经济体，就像一个靠印钞吹起来的“热气球”。

mrsarkar6933
Rahul Gandhi ji is the only hope for youths employment and Indian economy. We need education who understands the economy book. Rahul Gandhi ji top educated leader, MPhil degree from world top Cambridge university

拉胡尔·甘地先生是印度年轻人就业和印度经济的唯一希望。我们需要懂经济学的领导人。拉胡尔·甘地先生是受过顶尖教育的领导人，拥有世界顶尖学府剑桥大学的哲学硕士学位。

Kabir1960
Why nobody is discussing drastic reduction in government spending which is hugely inefficient with freebies galore. That will enable further reduction in taxes putting more money in hands of consumers and giving huge filip to domestic industry.

为什么没人讨论大幅削减政府开支？现在政府开支效率极低，还到处发福利。如果能削减开支，就能进一步减税，让消费者手里有更多钱，也能给本土产业带来巨大推动。

shantanuroy547
India is on good track...these are 'chamchas' of foreign companies who always try to derail Indian economy to fall into their traps.

印度的路子走对了，这些人都是外国公司的“哈巴狗”，总想破坏印度经济，让印度落入他们的陷阱。

prabhakararaoaravapalli9050
US media and their moles in India are active now ....to paint an artificially crafted low picture of Indian economy ...Not to fall for the pessimistic views .

美国媒体及其在印度的眼线现在很活跃，故意把印度经济描绘得很糟糕，别被这种悲观论调骗了。

user-jh9kj5hk8h
That is a worthless statement without reasoning. Their claims answer the the question why and how. Yours is fowl fluff

你这话毫无价值，根本没有论据支撑。他们的观点还会解释“为什么”和“怎么做”，而你的话就是废话。

sonatboro7873
India too needs economic escalations if trade talk never works early. This economists are blundered

如果贸易谈判早早就谈不拢，印度也需要采取经济升级措施。这些经济学家真是犯了大错。

keekikaaka6687
What do you expect to gain by retaliating? Let’s look at numbers and probably it makes it easy to see. Indian exports to US is more than 3 times of US exports to India - India to US about $272B both Goods and Service exports together and US to India it’s about $84B. Indian exports of goods and services to US is close to 7% of Indian GDP where as US exports are 0.3% of their GDP. On top of it India receives remittances of more than $130B. US can always impose taxes on those remittances - this has been discussed as a possibility already. Who stands to lose if we retaliate?

反击能给我们带来什么好处？我们看看数据，可能就清楚了。印度对美国的出口额是美国对印度出口额的3倍多——印度对美商品和服务出口总额约2720亿美元，而美国对印出口约840亿美元。印度对美商品和服务出口额占印度GDP的近7%，而美国对印出口仅占其GDP的0.3%。除此之外，印度还能收到超过1300亿美元的海外汇款。美国随时可以对这些汇款征税——这种可能性之前已经讨论过了。如果我们反击，谁会吃亏？

prashant2008kashyap
World is in the state of pre war preparations. Those who have been slapped tariffs are the designated enemies in this future war

世界正处于战前准备状态。那些被加征关税的国家，就是未来这场战争中指定的敌人。

notforclapsnt8631
To reach 10k per capita GDP by 2047, handover power to BJP till 2052 OR handover law enforcement of country to Military and handover policy implementation to technocrats/businessmen with love for motherland.

要想在2047年实现人均GDP 1万美元的目标，要么把权力交给人民党直到2052年，要么把国家执法权交给军队，把政策执行权交给热爱祖国的技术专家或企业家。

aaedreonguile
We have prople like u as voters thats the biggest threat

有你这样的人当选民，才是最大的威胁。

dewdrop3315
@aaedreonguile Pappu enjoyed Trump's calling Indian economy dead. Pure Indians know where to vote.

“帕普”（拉胡尔·甘地）倒是很喜欢特朗普说印度经济“已死”。真正的印度人知道该给谁投票。

dhrubabhaumik9793
Domestic consumption & long term tax exemption, massive dergulation in manufationing for domestic consumtion is need of the hour.

眼下亟需的是提振国内消费、推出长期免税政策，以及为面向国内消费的制造业大幅松绑。

mandarp9472
India needs labour reforms, land reforms, easing rules & regulations, less red tape, less corruption in every government department, tax audits and tax harrasment of SME, small companies must stop. India also needs to bring down cost of capital, power costs, freight cost.

印度需要进行劳工改革、土地改革，放宽规章制度，减少官僚主义，清除各政府部门的腐败。必须停止对中小企业的税务审计和税务骚扰。印度还需要降低资金成本、电力成本和运费。

soniak-z2w
We need New Political ,social and financial leaders.

我们需要新的政治、社会和金融领域的领导人。

tadepalliprasad
An economy that long depended on "service " and export of "human resource " not on manufacturing, production and assembly has to naturally face the consequences !

一个长期依赖“服务业”和“人力资源出口”，而非制造业、生产和组装业的经济体，自然要面对这样的后果！

korathmathew
Why can't India be business friendly like the US? Reform is the key.. we have the talent pool.

印度为什么不能像美国那样对企业友好？改革才是关键，我们有人才储备啊。

KirenKK-te7pb
India has always planned for the worst and yet adapted to the best of feasible opportunities even in adversity ( economic/ trade). One has to face reality without fantasy.

印度总是做最坏的打算，但即便在困境中（无论是经济还是贸易困境），也会充分利用可行的机会。人必须面对现实，不能空想。

rajeshrp6424
yes but todays India is different , we think we will teach US a lesson and we are Viswaguru

话是这么说，但现在的印度不一样了，我们觉得自己能给美国一个教训，还觉得自己是“世界导师”。

Humanbeing01
We should keep our tariffs higher because we are big market but our export is not much large so we can get good revenue by giving access to Indian market. We should give incentives to make foreign companies to make manufacturing in india which can create jobs & people learn skills and experience and lean latest manufacturing technologies. It can create many small local manufacturing businesses. India should focus on good practical skill base education. Ease of business specifically for export. We should focus on making products exporting from india. Take advantage of modern knowledge and technology and Improvement on agriculture sectors. We should focus on make in india & made in india. Diversify our import, export.

我们应该维持较高的关税，因为我们是个大市场，但出口规模不算大，这样通过开放印度市场就能获得可观的收入。我们应该出台激励措施，吸引外国公司来印度建厂生产，这样能创造就业机会，让人们学习技能和经验，掌握最新的制造技术。这还能催生很多本土小型制造企业。印度应该注重优质的实用技能教育。要改善营商环境，尤其是针对出口企业的营商环境。我们应该专注于制造可出口的产品，利用现代知识和技术改善农业领域。我们要聚焦“印度制造”和“印度产”，实现进出口多元化。

mahabaleshwarpandit2378
On the contrary such shocks should be absorbed and still outperform because this kind of shocks will continue unabated

相反，印度应该承受住这样的冲击，并且依然实现超越，因为这类冲击会持续不断。

alex5chandy
Like that. Listen to the panelists in the first round and how they change in the subsequent round. Dr Chakravarty though has been more or less consistent with his views.

就是这样。听听专家们第一轮的发言，再看看他们在接下来几轮里态度的转变。不过查克拉瓦蒂博士的观点倒是基本一致。

biswarupbkarmakar3227
How can 10000 USD per capita income be termed as viksit?? India today host has such low standards for viksit?

人均收入1万美元怎么能算“发达”呢？《今日印度》对“发达”的标准就这么低吗？

daredragon5934
gendu log india has 1.44 billion population and will peak at 1.7 to 1.9 billion so , 10,000 per capita his good ,russia and china also have 14k and 13k respectively

这些蠢货，印度有14.4亿人口，人口峰值还会达到17亿到19亿，所以人均1万美元已经很不错了，俄罗斯和中国的人均也才分别是1.4万美元和1.3万美元。

prabhakararaoaravapalli9050
If US imposes 50% tariffs on some sectors , is that the end of life for these sectors ? Do not paint a bleek picture . We dealt with COVID and sudden demand shut down and this is another opportunity to explore other markets ....may be with lesser margins for a few months ... I agree that footwear sector may need some govt support/ subsidies for some time . Diamond industry is rich and can they not absorb some shock for some months ?

如果美国对某些行业加征50%的关税，这些行业就活不下去了吗？别把情况说得这么悲观。我们都挺过了新冠疫情和需求骤降，这次也是开拓其他市场的机会。可能未来几个月利润会减少一些，但没关系。我同意制鞋业可能需要政府支持或补贴一段时间。钻石行业很有钱，难道他们就不能承受几个月的冲击吗？

SatishKumar-er2lq
Talk about growth about next few yrs instead of asking about 2047, its useless questions, only help politician to collect vote and media propaganda.

还是谈谈未来几年的增长吧，别总问2047年的事了。这种问题毫无意义，只会帮政客拉选票，帮媒体搞宣传。

sujatharaokanuru8833
All this top Indian economists had said three years ago post covid but govt didn't listen. Wonder who advised govt!

三年前新冠疫情之后，这些印度顶尖经济学家就说过这些话了，但政府根本没听。真想知道是谁在给政府提建议！

anonymousan5063
Indian economy is very very strong due to IITs, IIMs and UPSC which are controlling the economy of India .on the other hand India also the super power in IT, AI and semiconductor technology which are the heart and brain of economy.

多亏了印度理工学院（IIT）、印度管理学院（IIM）和印度公务员委员会（UPSC），它们掌控着印度经济，所以印度经济非常强劲。另一方面，印度在IT、人工智能和半导体技术领域也是超级大国，这些领域是经济的核心和大脑。

freeTitan6053
The only blocker to Indian economy are the corrupt IAS officers and other government servants, they will not allow anything to pass without a bribe.

印度经济唯一的障碍就是腐败的印度行政服务局官员和其他政府工作人员，不给贿赂，他们就不让任何事通过。

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