关税、紧张局势与全球格局重组：印度能否顶住特朗普的关税压力？

Tariffs, tensions and global realignments: Can India withstand Trump's tariffs?

关税、紧张局势与全球格局重组：印度能否顶住特朗普的关税压力？

India is the target of spiraling U.S. tariffs, reportedly over its purchase of Russian oil. New Delhi is circling the wagons, tightening its belt to cope with adverse U.S. policy. But where does that leave trade relations between the world's largest and fourth-largest economies?

印度成为美国不断加码的关税政策针对对象，据称背后原因与印度购买俄罗斯石油有关。印度政府正采取防御姿态，通过紧缩开支来应对美国的不利政策。但对于全球第一大与第四大经济体而言，这会给两国贸易关系带来怎样的影响？

以下是各国网友的评论：

bAHMaS9
It's not russian oil but it's NOBEL PEACE PRIZE nomination which india refused.

不是因为俄罗斯石油，而是因为印度拒绝了为特朗普提名诺贝尔和平奖

arunal3695
What nonsense is this? India nobody to decide on the Nobel Peace Prize.

这简直是胡扯！印度根本没资格决定诺贝尔和平奖颁发给谁。

Mohna-h7z
@arunal3695 trump asked for a peace prize for indo pak ceasefire, but vishwahguroo did not accept, so he got 50%tariffs and vishwahguroo has no answer for that

特朗普想借着印巴停火的事儿拿诺贝尔和平奖，可“世界导师”莫迪没同意，所以印度才被加征了50%的关税，这下“世界导师”没辙了。

induchopra3014
@Mohna-h7z has. India took export elsewhere. Simple. No loss. Now our exports will double

怎么没辙？印度已经把出口转向其他地方了。很简单，没损失。现在我们的出口量还能翻倍。

loginfast4432
No, it's ARAMCO oil, which India refused

不对，是因为印度拒绝购买沙特阿美的石油。

amitm1993
Nobody should give the Nobel peace prize to a snake

谁都不该把诺贝尔和平奖颁给一条“毒蛇”。

rahulbarman8875
India will raid in American tech companies

印度会对美国科技公司展开突击检查

Lazy.Potato.69
'Dead economy' India Q1 GDP growth rate : 7.8%

都说印度是“死经济”，可印度一季度GDP增长率明明是7.8%。

sportsonwheelss
Trump would say India have no card.

特朗普肯定会说印度手里没牌可打。

runal3695
No true because Endia has a lot of bullockcarts

才不是呢，因为印度有一大堆牛车

SUBHRONILBISWAS-n1s
@arunal3695 India has 190000 BrahMos as well

印度还有19万枚“布拉莫斯”导弹呢。

navneetmishra1309
@arunal3695 Keep Dreaming !

做你的白日梦去吧！

bAHMaS9
India has medicine card. 70% american medicine are indian. India is called pharmacy of the world. But we not going to do that, we r not foolish like USA

印度有“药品牌”。美国人用的药70%是印度产的，印度可是被称为“世界药房”。但我们不会这么做，我们可不像美国那么蠢。

Mohna-h7z
@bAHMaS9 ok dont do that but 50%tatiff you have no reply

行，你们不这么做也行，但面对50%的关税，你们还不是没辙。

SandeepKumar-zu8wk
@Mohna-h7z ur president is because of India. Nobel barrier is India.

你们的特朗普总统能有今天，还得靠我们印度。印度才是他拿诺贝尔和平奖的拦路虎。

RitamDandapat-lj5uf
@Mohna-h7z tarrif is not on medicines

关税没加到药品上。

Mohna-h7z
@RitamDandapat-lj5uf bruh i am happy, two facisist now at it viswahguroo & orange man is at each other throats

兄弟，我可太开心了，两个“法西斯”掐起来了——“世界导师”（莫迪）和“橙发男”（特朗普）在互掐

sportsonwheelss
@induchopra3014 Indians thinks India had all the cards is the difference. Not reality. One foot on one boat while the other foot on another boat would never end well.

问题就在于，印度人觉得自己手里什么牌都有，可现实根本不是这样。一只脚踩一条船，这样下去肯定没好结果。

nikhilniks1194
China and India they must change their differences and start liking and develo each other

中国和印度必须化解分歧，开始相互友好、共同发展。

Lucifer0007
Nothing to do with Russian Oil, this is all about India not opening its agricultural economy to Monsanto genetically modified seeds. Also, India rejected American Fighter jets in favour of Russian Planes. Also, (I know) India didn't bow to Trump falsely declaring that he brokered the peace deal between India and Pakistan.

跟俄罗斯石油没关系，根本原因是印度没向孟山都的转基因种子开放农业市场。而且印度没买美国战机，选了俄罗斯的飞机。另外，我知道特朗普谎称自己促成了印巴和平协议，印度没向他低头。

av3347
Well the question should be "Whether Trumps tariffs stay legal ???

其实问题应该是“特朗普的关税合法性能维持多久？”

1pasupaty
Arey u know even weaker countries like Iran have survived sanctions.india has got good trade relationships with many countries.doing thus for centuries.

哎呀，你不知道吗？就连伊朗那样的弱国都能顶住制裁。印度和很多国家都保持着良好的贸易关系，几百年来一直都是这么做的。

gbhatia9809
India is world’s largest producer of milk, 2nd largest producer of steel & one of largest producer of food grains. India’s rural economy which employs 60% of Indians would suffer from cheap agricultural & dairy imports from US causing mass unemployment. So, tariff or no tariff, these sectors are out for the US.
India imports 4.5 million barrels of crude oil every day. If India stops buying Russian oil, the global crude prices will go up to at least $120 from present price of $70 per barrel. That will help high-cost shell oil producing US companies, but India will have to spend additional $90-100bn every year on crude oil alone. That is much more than India’s annual exports to the US. India will prefer to forgo its entire US exports than the Russian oil.
India has everything except crude oil, fertilizer, coking coal & uranium which Russia can provide making the two economies highly complementary. Tariffs imposed by US on India for buying Russian oil can act as blessing in disguise. It will connect India with Russia heralding the dawn of a new, dollar down-graded world order.
Chinese economy is in internal collapse; Trump tariffs will further aggravate it. This can compel China to resolve border dispute with India which will help China relocate its huge army locked along over 3,800 km long Indo-china border saving money & manpower to concentrate on freeing itself from its island chains shackles.
After Doklam & Galwan, China has seen India’s strength & Operation Sindoor has shown India’s capability in modern warfare. China cannot now gain anything in border which If left unresolved, then during Island chains crisis with the West, Indian Army can initiate moves to in order to create buffer . Island chains region is lifeline of China more important than border & Island chains region can only be secured with security at border. Both China & India can also develop mutually beneficial trade to offset Trump tariffs.

印度是世界最大的牛奶生产国、第二大钢铁生产国，也是最大的粮食生产国之一。印度农村经济吸纳了60%的印度劳动力，如果允许美国廉价农产品和乳制品进入印度，农村经济会受到打击，还会引发大规模失业。所以不管有没有关税，这些领域都不会对美国开放。

印度每天进口450万桶原油。如果印度停止购买俄罗斯石油，国际原油价格会从现在的每桶70美元涨到至少120美元。这对成本高昂的美国壳牌石油这类企业有利，但印度每年单在原油上就要多花900到1000亿美元——这比印度对美年出口额还多。所以印度宁愿放弃对美全部出口，也不会不买俄罗斯石油。

印度除了原油、化肥、焦煤和铀，其他物资都不缺，而这些正好是俄罗斯能提供的，两国经济互补性很强。美国因为印度买俄罗斯石油而加征关税，反而可能是件“因祸得福”的事：这会让印度和俄罗斯走得更近，预示着新的、美元地位下降的世界秩序即将到来。

中国经济陷入困境，特朗普的关税会让情况更糟。这可能会迫使中国解决与印度的边境争端——这样中国就能把部署在3800多公里中印边境上的大量军队调走，节省资金和人力，集中精力打破“岛链”封锁。

经过洞朗和加勒万河谷冲突事件，中国已经见识了印度的实力，“辛杜尔行动”也展示了印度的现代作战能力。现在中国在边境捞不到好处，如果边境问题一直不解决，那么当中国与西方在“岛链”发生危机时，印度军队可能会趁机发动进攻。“岛链”地区是中国的生命线，而“岛链”的安全只有在中印边境稳定的前提下才能保障。中印两国也可以发展互利贸易，来抵消特朗普关税的影响。

abhikulkarni7089
Question is like to wright can USA withstand trump tarrif ?

问题应该反过来问：美国能顶住特朗普的关税吗？

Thesky_acct
INDIA is sending a giant middle fingered signal to DoLund Ceasefire Trump

印度这是在给“特朗普”竖大拇指

JamieMorlok
India was overdependent on America & overpleased it by following orders, many negative ones. Finally, India has comprehended that all this doesn't serve India & its markets. So, a blessing in disguise is that India will venture out (more co-ordiantion with Russia/China), co-operate & co-exst particularly with Asian & African countries.

印度以前太依赖美国了，还老是听美国的话——很多都是不好的指令——拼命讨好美国。好在印度终于明白，这样做对自己和自己的市场都没好处。所以这事也算是“因祸得福”：印度会主动走出去多和俄罗斯、中国合作，尤其是和亚非国家合作共存。

indianpatriots1278
We need to end the problems with China and prosper ,the only problem I foresee isbthat China might notbsee the bigger picture ,if they do and concede on some points this might be a golden opportunity for both countries

我们需要解决和中国的问题，共同发展。我能预见到的唯一问题是，中国可能看不到长远利益。如果中国能看到，并且在一些问题上做出让步，这对两国来说可能都是个黄金机遇。

deepikakadai5698
India should be prepared for worst. If US impose sanctions on india , another war from Pakistan was also possible

印度应该做最坏的打算。如果美国对印度实施制裁，巴基斯坦也有可能再次发动战争。

abhikulkarni7089
Section will take down doller definitely not need to worry game begins

美元结算体系肯定会被搞垮，没必要担心，好戏才刚开始。

Dr.singye
It's India n modi who didn't cooperate with brics

是印度和莫迪不配合金砖国家。

Venom-uu1ge
Who are you? Brics chairmen ? you guys love to be in someone influence always isn't?

你以为你是谁啊？金砖吗？你们这些人就喜欢受别人控制，不是吗？

LM-if1rq
lol this is not the first the U.S. sanctions India. But this time its call tariffs. India will do just fine

哈哈，美国又不是第一次制裁印度了，只不过这次叫“关税”而已。印度肯定没事。

induchopra3014
Trump has ruined 20 years of diplomacy. On one lunch wirh asim munir. Now cry. India diversifying trade exports. China india closer.

特朗普毁了20年的外交成果，就因为和阿西姆·穆尼尔吃了一顿饭。现在后悔也晚了。印度正在实现贸易出口多元化，中印关系也越来越近。

Broad-Spectrum
Trump’s tariff war might sting in the short term, but the bigger picture is more important. Moves like this are only pushing countries closer to BRICS, which is already getting stronger and resha global trade. If anything, these tariffs could speed up the shift toward a more balanced, multipolar world order instead of kee US dominance intact.

特朗普的关税战短期内可能会让人难受，但长远来看不然。这种做法只会把各国推向金砖国家——金砖国家本来就越来越强，还在重塑全球贸易格局。说白了，这些关税反而可能加速世界向更平衡的多极秩序转变，而不是让美国的主导地位维持下去。

ruggeddiscipline6026
That’s the point the energy is shifting from the west

你说的这个才是关键，影响力正在从西方转移。