三泰虎

如果印度真的想退出金砖国家,大家欢迎吗

Do you welcome the idea if India truly wants to leave BRICS?

如果印度真的想退出金砖国家,大家欢迎吗?

 

以下是Quora读者的评论:

Bill Chen

No one can stop India from its choices. It marches to its own beat.

That's the power of heft.

The key to understanding New Delhi is it seeks Indian development, on Delhi's exclusive terms.

BRICS+, SCO, and the ASEAN-GCC-China supranational grous are focused on free trade, symbiotic in-step development and multilateral frameworks of cooperation arrived through consensus.

Which rubs against the grain of Indian policies, and the “we will do it our way" bent evident in a string of Indian decisions.

And that is ok. India will prosper if it finds itself useful to the world. It may catch winds of opportunity playing all sides. But such haphazardness lack directionality and long term stability. India may find itself marching to its own beat, in step but also in place.

Truth be told, in the 21st century, India isn't a bottleneck, when push comes to shove. Not in technology, resources or financing. Nice to have but no rainmaker.

India giving up its seat won't upend the table. However, India may find to its dismay that the seat is no more when it regrets and tries to unpeel the banana.

没有人能阻止印度做出自己的选择。印度向来按自己的节奏行事。

这就是体量带来的力量。

理解新德里的关键在于,印度追求自己的发展,但必须完全按照自己的条件来。

金砖扩员机制、上合组织以及东盟 - 海湾合作委员会 - 中国这样的超国家集团,都聚焦于自由贸易、共生同步发展以及通过共识达成的多边合作框架。

而这与印度的政策相悖,印度一系列决策中都明显体现出“我们要按自己的方式来”的倾向。

不过这也没什么。如果印度能对世界有用,就会繁荣发展。它或许能在左右逢源中抓住机遇。但这种随意性缺乏方向性和长期稳定性。印度可能会发现,自己虽然按自己的节奏前进,却只是原地踏步。

说实话,到了21世纪,真到了关键时刻,印度并非瓶颈。在技术、资源或资金方面都不是。有它挺好,但它并非能一锤定音的角色。

印度放弃自己的席位不会搅乱全局。然而,当印度后悔并想要回头时,可能会沮丧地发现,那个席位已经不复存在了。

 

Yi Li

Couldn’t welcome more.

There is no better news than India’s withdrawal from BRICS, and i believe it’s a good thing for all the member countries. Since India joined the BRICS summit, it has been causing disruptions. Just list a few:

At the 2023 BRICS Summit,India opposed the BRICS common currency plan and insisted on prioritizing the strengthening of the Indian rupee's status,which hindered the progress of local currency settlement.
In October 2024, at the Kazan BRICS Summit, Indian External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar opposed the resolution to increase the proportion of local currency settlements to 40%, citing the reason of "safeguarding the sovereign currency." However, he secretly advanced the project for the internationalization of the Indian rupee.
Moreover, India refused to sign the Economic Development Strategy of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) up to 2030, criticizing it for "China's excessive intervention"; within the frameworks of BRICS and the SCO, it obstructed the China-led Belt and Road Initiative in an attempt to weaken China's influence; it also demanded that new member countries must support India, Brazil, and South Africa in becoming permanent members of the UN Security Council, which led to the failure of the BRICS joint statement.

我举双手赞成。

没有比印度退出金砖国家更好的消息了,而且我认为这对所有成员国来说都是件好事。自从印度加入金砖峰会以来,就一直在制造麻烦。仅举几例:

- 在2023年金砖峰会上,印度反对金砖共同货币计划,坚持要优先提升印度卢比的地位,这阻碍了本币结算的推进。

- 2024年10月,在喀山金砖峰会上,印度外长苏杰生以“维护主权货币”为由,反对将本币结算比例提高到40%的决议。但他却在暗中推进印度卢比国际化项目。

- 此外,印度拒绝签署《上海合作组织2030年前经济发展战略》,还指责该战略“中国干预过多”;在金砖和上合组织框架内,它阻挠中国主导的“一带一路”倡议,试图削弱中国的影响力;它还要求新成员国必须支持印度、巴西和南非成为联合国安理会常任理事国,这导致金砖联合声明未能达成。

However, despite repeatedly obstructing the BRICS agenda, India has been able to continuously obtain low-cost infrastructure loans from the New Development Bank of BRICS. It can only be said that India is the vampire in the BRICS countries.

Frankly, if India were to withdraw, the internal political maneuvering costs within BRICS would drop significantly. The remaining members could collaborate more smoothly and seamlessly in key domains like trade/economy, energy, and digital currency. Without India's disruptions, member states would face fewer internal conflicts and lower cooperation costs, enabling more efficient collaboration. Unencumbered by India's interference, BRICS nations could also advance faster in de - dollarization and building local currency settlement systems.

Moreover, India is not an irreplaceable country. The impact of new member states such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates on oil could weaken India's standing as a "global energy hub". African members like Egypt and Ethiopia might replace India as a "bridge for the Global South".

In conclusion, I totally support India's withdrawal from BRICS. Even if BRICS needs an "I," why can't it be a more reliable country like Indonesia instead of India?

然而,尽管印度一再阻挠金砖议程,却能不断从金砖新开发银行获得低成本的基础设施贷款。只能说,印度就是金砖国家中的吸血鬼。

坦率地说,如果印度退出,金砖国家内部的政治运作成本会大幅降低。剩余成员国能在贸易经济、能源、数字货币等关键领域更顺畅、更紧密地合作。没有印度的干扰,成员国之间的内部矛盾会更少,合作成本会更低,合作效率也会更高。摆脱印度的阻挠后,金砖国家在去美元化和构建本币结算体系方面也能更快推进。

而且,印度并非不可替代。沙特、阿联酋等新成员国在石油方面的影响力,可能会削弱印度作为“全球能源枢纽”的地位。埃及、埃塞俄比亚等非洲成员国或许会取代印度成为“全球南方的桥梁”。

总之,我完全支持印度退出金砖国家。就算金砖需要一个以“I”开头的国家(印度的英文名称“India”),为什么不能是印度尼西亚(Indonesia)这样更可靠的国家,而非要是印度呢?

 

Snehasis Panda

Hell No!

India should not and must not leave BRICS under any cost.

(1) BRICs is the only platform where India can credibly and effectively obstruct Chinese aims and objectives .

(2) China and BRICs must be held hostage to indian interests and ambitions .

China for long has obstructed India’s membership to Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) due to which India has faced uncertainity as far as supply of nuclear fuel is concerned as a result of which India ahs not been able to build nuclear reactors at a pace it desires.

绝不可能!印度无论如何都不应该、也绝不能退出金砖国家。

(1)金砖国家是印度唯一能可靠且有效地阻挠中国实现目标的平台。

(2)中国和金砖国家必须受制于印度的利益和野心。

长期以来,中国一直阻挠印度加入核供应国集团(NSG),这导致印度在核燃料供应方面面临不确定性,进而无法按期望的速度建造核反应堆。

(3) China for long has protected Maulana Mashood Azhar , the perpetrator of 26/11 and countless terror attacks from UNSC Sanctions . Despite Pakistani courts issuing warrants against him , despite iron clad evidence being available China has protected a mass murder from UNSC Sanctions.

This is opposite of what our chairman taught us !

This is not and should not be tolerable .

(4) BRICS must be obstructed at every turn till China gives in to Indian demands .

Its National self interest 101 .

Remember Indians , for you India’s self interest must come first for India to develop .

(3)东大长期保护 26/11 事件及其他恐袭的制造者马苏德・阿扎尔,使其免受联合国安理会制裁。尽管巴基斯坦法院已对他发出逮捕令,且证据确凿

这与我们教导的完全相悖!

这是不可容忍的,也绝不应该被容忍。

(4)印度必须处处阻挠金砖国家的进程,直到中国满足印度的要求。

这是国家核心利益的基本准则。

印度人要记住,为了印度的发展,印度的自身利益必须放在首位。

 

Jia

The EU finally rid itself of the troublemaker and realized there were fewer quarrels. The British are no longer welcome in the EU.

The same could be said about India—BRICS could function more smoothly without them. India may soon become the world’s third-largest economy, but its global influence does not match its economic size. Countries with smaller economies, like Japan, Germany, and the UK (the fourth, fifth, and sixth-largest economies), still wield greater international influence than India.

India is not irreplaceable. Its current standing is not what BRICS needs at the moment, so it would be better to remove them sooner rather than later.

欧盟终于摆脱了英国这个麻烦制造者,发现争吵变少了。欧盟不再欢迎英国人。

印度的情况也一样。没有印度,金砖国家能运转得更顺畅。印度或许很快会成为世界第三大经济体,但它的全球影响力与其经济规模并不匹配。像日本、德国、英国这些经济体量更小的国家(分别是世界第四、第五、第六大经济体),国际影响力仍比印度大。

印度并非不可替代。它目前的地位并非金砖国家当下所需要的,所以还是早点把它移除为好。

 

Lenardo Ho

The Indians only want extra benefits by doing this and I think India should be thrown out of the BRICS organization. As for SCO, this is a result of Russia's selfishness that caused India to join it, and India's behavior of going to war against Pakistan should be, well, expelled from it.

印度人这么做就是想捞额外好处,我觉得应该把印度踢出金砖组织。至于上合组织,印度能加进去是俄罗斯造成的,而且印度对巴基斯坦动武,这种行为,嗯,也该被逐出上合。

 

Jesuan Wu

As a Chinese I wouldn’t mind India leaving.

But India won’t go.

BRICS is the most internationally important body India is in.

作为中国人,我不介意印度走。

但印度不会走的。

金砖是印度加入的国际组织里最重要的一个。

 

Louis Veenstra

India should be “fired” from BRICS before India can “quit” from BRICS.

不等印度“退出”金砖,就得先把它“开除”。

 

Peter Kauffner

BRICS is not like NATO where there is a formal structure. India can just stop attending anytime. Then the “I” can become Indonesia (Brazil, Russia, Indonesia, China, and South Africa).

金砖不像北约,没有那么正式的架构。印度随时可以不来参加。到时候,那个“I”(印度)就能换成印度尼西亚

 

Haier Brothers

India should accelerate the process of launching BRICS. The country is so poor that it pulls down the level of per capita income in the BRICS countries.

印度赶紧退出金砖吧。这国家太穷,拉低了金砖国家的人均收入水平。

 

Roger Shepard

India joined BRICS (in 2009) to be “with” China. To stand side-by-side with China in the spirt of the The 1955 Bandung Conference, also known as the Asian-African Conference, held in Bandung, Indonesia from April 18 to 24, 1955 to discuss issues of peace, decolonization, and the role of the Third World in the Cold War.

India was economically ahead of China in 1955 and was sure (then) that it would be India, not China, who would be where China is today. But even measured from 2009, India is so much further behind China, that it isn’t even close to being as influential as it was when BRICS was formed.

This does create a problem for India, China, and BRICS overall. In 2009 India could imagine that it would today be (along with Russia and China) part of a 21st century "Roman Triumvirate" of three powerful (countries and men), who dominated the global-south and (with the global south) stood on equal footing with the historical Euro-centric West, in the great questions of global political economy.

India wants to leave. Like any “passed-over” corporate executive (who thought he would be the CEO), yet who since about 2015, realizes he’ll never be one of the “big-three”, or even the “big-five (through) ten” men leading and running the corporate enterprise. India sits at the conference table and knows China is only being polite.

But India believes it was (in the past) something else, something that could have been China, maybe greater. That's a special kind of disappointment.

Yes, India wants to leave (and yes, it sincerely hates not being China, or greater than China), but it can’t leave. And India knows it cannot leave. There is no place to go.

Where to? The EU’s whore? Washington’s whore? The job of being the non Chinese savior/leader of Singapore, Sri Lanka, Cuba, Brazil, Belize, Bolivia, …? In the lives of nations and of men, fait and circumstances, are cruel and unforgiving taskmasters.

印度2009年加入金砖,是为了和中国“站在一起”。是想本着1955年万隆会议的精神,和中国并肩而立。那次会议也叫亚非会议,1955年4月18日到24日在印度尼西亚万隆召开,讨论和平、非殖民化以及冷战中第三世界的角色等问题。

1955年时,印度经济比中国强,当时它确信,能达到中国如今地位的,会是自己,而不是中国。但就算从2009年算起,印度和中国的差距也太大了,影响力甚至不如金砖成立的时候。

这给印度、中国以及整个金砖都带来了问题。2009年时,印度还幻想如今能和俄罗斯、中国一起,成为21世纪的“罗马三巨头”,三个强国主宰全球南方,在全球政治经济的重大问题上,能和以欧洲为中心的西方平起平坐。

印度想退出。就像一个没被提拔的公司高管,本以为能当上CEO,但2015年左右就意识到,自己永远成不了“三巨头”,甚至进不了主导公司的“前五到前十”。印度坐在会议桌前,心里清楚中国只是出于礼貌。

但印度觉得自己过去本可以不一样,本可以成为中国,甚至比中国更强。这种失望很特别。

没错,印度想退出(而且它是真的不甘心自己不是中国,或者说没能比中国强),但它退不了。印度自己也知道退不了。没地方可去。

能去哪?当欧盟的附庸?当华盛顿的附庸?

 

 

Epstein Lance

Well yes.

If India can’t align itself with the overall BRICS objectives it should better leave BRICS. The whole world is trying to get away from dollar but superpower economy India don’t want to move away from USD. Why? A superpower economy should be able to have its own currency as a medium of exchange in global trade or be a part of the process in that direction. Since India is a weak economy despite all the propaganda and it can’t have any independent exstence away from the US and UK so it should leave BRICS and make a special group of USa, UK and India and conduct all it’s international trade in USD and British pound.

嗯,是这样。如果印度不能顺应金砖的整体目标,最好还是退出。全世界都在想摆脱美元,可印度这个“超级大国经济体”却不想脱离美元。为什么?一个超级大国经济体,应该能让自己的货币成为全球贸易的交换媒介,或者至少朝着这个方向努力。尽管宣传得厉害,但印度经济其实很弱,离开美英就没法独立存在。所以它应该退出金砖,和美国、英国搞个特殊小团体,所有国际贸易都用美元和英镑结算。

此文由 三泰虎 编辑,未经允许不得转载!:首页 > 资讯 » 如果印度真的想退出金砖国家,大家欢迎吗

()
分享到: