你觉得印度什么时候会超过中国和美国，成为世界头号强国

When do you think India will surpass China and the United States as the world's number 1 power?

你觉得印度什么时候会超过中国和美国，成为世界头号强国？

以下是Quora网友的评论：

Steven Mak

This is a wishful thinking. The West barred China from their technology, and the US is out to stop China’s rise at all cost. None of these happens to India, and it still fell behind China by a mile.

The US has been the world’s #1 power for years, the world has suffered greatly. Why would we want this to continue?

这只是你一厢情愿的想法。西方禁止中国接触欧美技术，美国不惜一切代价阻挠中国的崛起。印度从未遇到过这些问题，可还是远远落后于中国。

美国多年来一直是世界头号大国，世界因此遭受了巨大的损失。我们为什么要继续忍耐？

Peter Kaye

When do I think? NEVER, India will grow, but nothing like China, talk about the tortoise and the hare, In comparison ? India is the snail the tortoise left behind, but then, like the old saying goes, never say never, I’m certainly not a fortune teller, so who knows what the future may hold, but the way things are at the moment, it doesn’t look very promising. India is part of BRICS+ that may help. But then, China is the leader of the group, so for India to pass China that would have to change as well, BUT THEN China has the BRI, and India does not, or anything even remotely like it, so no I can’t see India ever passing Chinas economy,

你问我觉得会是什么时候？我觉得永远不会，印度会增长，但绝对不可能像中国那样，你听说过龟兔赛跑吧。印度就是那只被乌龟远远甩在身后的蜗牛，但是，就像那句老话说的，一切皆有可能，我当然不是算命先生，谁能知道未来会怎样，但就以目前的情况看，印度希望不大。印度是金砖集团的一分子，对印度是个助力。但是，中国是金砖集团的领袖，所以印度要超过中国，这一局面也必须改变，但是中国有“一带一路”，印度没有，所以我不认为印度经济会超过中国。

Amit Jodha

By the end of 21st century

For all the pessimistic and optimistic ideas around this conversation, there are simple trends that are already hard to ignore, and will keep on getting clearer and clearer.

World's Number One power is a coated place and very few nations will ever reach that level, but India has previously been and would most likely again be that by the end of current century.

At the moment, India is undergoing MASSIVE changes, I have by my own eyes and senses witnessed how people have come into the mainstream over the past 2 decades.

到21世纪末的时候吧。

尽管围绕这一点有人悲观，也有人乐观，但我们已经无法忽视一个简单的趋势，这个趋势也正在变得越来越清晰。

世界头号强国已经是天花板了，很少有国家能达到这个级别，但印度以前曾经荣登宝座，在本世纪末很有可能重拾辉煌。

目前，印度正在经历巨大的变化，我亲眼目睹了印度人是如何在过去20年里跻身主流国家的。

China has shown how easy it is to become a superpower within a generation if things are implemented right, Japan and South Korea have earlier demonstrated the same at a much smaller level.

So, it is entirely possible to have a 180 degree transformation in a short span of time if things go well, even 10 extremely good years will get India to a place it has never been before, as we have been at the rock bottom for so long.

中国的发展已经证明，如果执行得当，在短短一代人的时间内也很容易成长为超级大国，日本和韩国之前也证明了这一点。

所以，如果一切顺利，印度完全有可能在短时间内实现逆转，10年时间也足以让印度达到一个前所未有的高度，因为我们已经蛰伏太久了。

Since 1990, and even more so since 2014, India is taking giant strides backing on Business, Sports, Economic and Industrial revolution in India.

We are now, in a short span of time, leading the world in many sectors, to think that just 20 years ago, we were much behind Australia and England even in Cricket economics, and now around 90 percent of global revenue comes from India Directly.

自1990年以来，尤其是2014年以来，印度在商业、体育、经济和工业革命方面都已取得了巨大进步。

现在我们只用了很短的时间，就在许多领域领先全球。20年前，我们在板球经济方面还远远落后于澳大利亚和英格兰，现在全球大约90%的收入直接来自印度。

Also, just 20 years ago, even our best actors were a joke in front of Hollywood celebrities, but now many of our top actors earn as much as them, and some are even getting popular and rich across the globe.

India wasn't even in top 10 big economies just a decade ago, and it's already 5th. It will be 3rd by the end of current decade.

Human progress is exponential, it's hard to grasp and comprehend fully, but impacts like this snowball really fast.

此外，20年前印度最好的演员在好莱坞名人面前也还是笑话，现在我们有很多顶级演员的收入不输他们，有些甚至在全世界都大受欢迎，十分富有。

十年前，印度压根没能进入前十大经济体之列，现在已经位列第五名了。到2030年就会排到第三位。

人类的进步是越来越快的，很难完全掌握和理解，但真的会像雪球一样快。

You make colleges, people study in them, you got competition, you get coachings, you get superstar teachers, you get superstar students, the whole economy gets developed in a short period of time, that's what India is at the moment, that's how fast things are changing.

Real estate, Tech, Construction, Infrastructure all sectors are booming, more and more roads, railroads, airports, cities are getting formed, this is an insanely unique time in the history of Indian subcontinent, and specifically India itself.

你们建立了大学，人们进入大学学习，你们有竞争，有指导，有超级明星老师，还有超级明星学生，整个经济在很短的时间内得到了发展，这就是印度目前的情况，这就是印度的变化速度。

房地产、科技、建筑、基础设施等所有行业都在蓬勃发展，印度建设了越来越多的道路、铁路、机场和城市，这是印度次大陆历史上一个疯狂独特的时期。

It's after 500 years that Ayodhya is home to Shri Ram Temple again, it's after 250 years that we are among 5 great world economies again, it's after eons that we are a serious STEM power, we have Indians scientists, space exploration programs, connectivity enthusiasts, global business tycoons, global media interests, everything converging for the very first time in Indian history after as long as 1500–1800 years, as the last such time was the gupta era.

Every year, every Olympiad, every decade, every 25 years, India will change SIGNIFICANTLY and I think we are best poised to become the leading global power by 2100.

500年后，阿约提亚再次成为罗摩神庙的所在地，250年后，我们再次跻身世界五大经济体之列，数千年后，我们成了理工教育大国，我们有印度科学家，有太空探索项目，有全球商业大亨，有全球媒体，在印度历史上长达1500-1800年之后，这一切第一次开始融合，在此之前最近一次还是发生在笈多时代。

每一年，每一届奥运会，每十年，每25年，印度都会发生重大变化，我认为我们极有可能在2100年成为全球领先的大国。

Then for another 50 years or so, India might easily remain the best country in the world, so a super golden 100 years from 2050 to 2150 coming up for us.

Internal fighting will then again do something to that glory though, that's human cycle that's tough to get over with.

All theories, but I can argue over the validity of these thoughts based on history, time factions and the cyclical nature of nation histories and human histories.

届时往后50年左右，印度可能很容易保持住头号大国的地位，所以从2050年到2150年的超级黄金100年即将到来。

但内部斗争也会再次爆发，这就是周期循环，很难克服。

上述都只是理论，但我可以根据历史，时间以及民族历史和人类历史的周期性为其辩护。

Fred Chuatiuco

Never.

Chinese are Chinese and Indians are Indians. They will NOT change.

China and India started out after WWII in fairly the same dismal state and at similar GDP level. But over the last 70 years, the political ecosystems they have had to endure are poles apart.

China started its modern era as a co unist state with the U.S. on its case ever since. They had economic embargo imposed since 1949 and only from 1979 was there that detente with the U.S. that allowed China to trade with the rest of the world.

But politically and militarily, below is what China found itelf then and is true today - surrounded.

永远都不可能。

中国人是中国人，印度人是印度人。他们改不了的。

二战后，中国和印度的经济状况都很糟，GDP水平也半斤八两。但在过去的70年里，他们不同的政治生态导致了截然不同的结果。

中国作为一个国家，揭开了现代的篇章。1949年起中国被美国实施经济禁运，直到1979年中美关系才开始缓和，中国得以和世界其他国家进行贸易。

但在政治和军事上，中国发现自己一直被包围着。

India, on the other hand, had relative free rein on their development plan. As a de ocracy in fact, they were supported and endorsed to pursue their independent political and economic paths by the West.

And mind you, Indians as a people are the most resourceful and smart people you will find anywhere in the world. And by all expectation of right minded Westerners, India should blossom and flourish under a political system allowing personal freedom. Look at how Indians today are dominating the top echelons of the corporate world in the U.S. Even the U.K. has an Indian for their leader.

而印度则拥有相对自由的发展计划。事实上，作为一个国家，印度在追求独立的政治和经济道路上得到了西方的支持和认可。

我要提醒一句，印度人是全世界最足智多谋、最聪明的人。按照富有正义感的西方人的期望，印度拥有的允许个人自由的制度可以给印度带来蓬勃的发展。看看印度人，他们今天在美国企业高层中占据了多少高管职位，甚至连英国的领导人中也出现了印度面孔。

But reality is, India today is miles behind China.

And India will never catch up unless they eliminate their caste system and their religous hatred. And these can’t be legislatively banished. It’s the people that must fiundamentally change.

但现实呢，今天的印度仍然远远落后于中国。

除非印度能消除种姓制度和宗教仇恨，否则印度永远无法赶超中美。光靠立法是禁止不了的，根本的改变在印度人本身。

Ray Comeau

India may never surpass China and the US in terms of economic or military power.

In the world of possibilities, anything is possible under specific circumstances.That means a lot of stars need to be re-aligned at the right time for it to happen. Some of those things are things India must do; some are things that others will need to do to impact the change needed.

在经济或军事实力方面，印度可能永远不会超过中国和美国。

在充满各种可能的世界里，在特定的情况下凡事皆有可能。这意味着我们必须在正确的时间重新排兵布阵，才能取得成功。其中有些事情是印度自己要做的；有些是其他人要做的。

As an outside observer of India for some years, today I do not see India moving fast enough in the direction it needs to take to make this premise possible. But maybe in the near future it will. Predictions are difficult, especially about the future !!

Indian society is unique and very different to Western society, which is wonderful. it does not need to become #1 to be popular.

我长期关注印度，现在还没有发现印度在正确的道路上大步前进。但也许在不久的将来，印度会有长足的发展。预测并非易事，尤其是对未来的预测！

印度社会十分独特，和西方社会非常不同。印度也不用非得是第一名才能受到世界各国的欢迎。

Peter Kaye

Can India overtake China to become a world power?

NOPE, not in a hundred years. Of course India Will develop and grow, but so will China, they still have a long way to grow as well, AND they are far FAR more in front already, so as India grows China will grow more, so for India to overtake China is virtually impossible,

印度能超越中国成为世界强国吗？

不，再给印度一百年时间也不可能。当然，印度会发展、会增长，但中国也会，中国也还有很长的路要走，他们已经遥遥领先了，所以印度发展的同时中国只会发展得更多，所以印度不太可能超过中国。

The Knight

Probably in 2–3 months time..if that makes you happy.

In reality, a highly impoverished (with an abysmally shameful 2600 gdp per capita), socially underdeveloped, over religious, highly divided country like India can never be the top 1. The country would be very lucky if it can manage to get half of its uncontrolled population live a decent life in next 200 years time. As of now the only thing it can brags about is a huge GDP (which is just because of the population and inflation)

大概2-3个月吧，如果这么说能让你高兴的话。

实际上，像印度这样一个高度贫困(人均GDP只有可怜的2600)、社会不发达、宗教过热、严重分裂的国家永远不可能成为世界第一。如果这个国家能在未来200年里让一半人口过上体面的生活就已经很幸运了。现在印度唯一可以吹嘘的就是庞大的GDP(因为人口和通货膨胀)。

Pravinchandra G Dhameliya

No possibility in for seeabble future.

Yes India will keep develo at good pace for next two decades.

But to surpass China and USA in Nominal GDP.

With very good military presence throughout the world.

That is far fetched imagination.

We are not going to become that very soon.

Not during my life time.

在可预见的未来，印度不可能赶超中美。

是的，印度会在未来20年内保持良好的发展速度。