What we need to grow

我们需要发展什么？

IN recent columns, I have written about the control of elites over Pakistan’s polity, the ineffectiveness of our governments and our pursuing the wrong model of import substitution, which results in boom-and-bust cycles.

在最近的专栏文章中，我写了一些关于精英阶层对巴基斯坦政治的控制，我们政府的无能，以及我们追求进口替代的错误模式，这导致了繁荣与萧条的循环。

Since our elite already control most of our resources, they aren’t interested in economic growth or increasing the size of the pie. Their preoccupation is with maintaining their lion’s share of the pie.

由于精英阶层已经控制了我们大部分的资源，他们对经济增长或扩大蛋糕的规模不感兴趣。他们的当务之急是保持自己最大的份额。

Our governments’ ineffectiveness serves our elite well as it stops any social mobility, and preserves the status quo. Finally, the import substitution policy ensures that monopoly profits flow to the already well-off.

我们政府的无能让我们的精英阶层受益，因为它阻止了任何社会流动，并维持了现状。最后，进口替代政策确保垄断利润流向已经富裕的人。

The only way to escape this poverty trap is to come up with a new ‘elite bargain’ that sues for growth and development. How can such a compact for prosperity be achieved is an important question that I leave aside for now. .

摆脱这种贫困陷阱的唯一途径是提出一种新的“精英交易”，要求增长和发展。如何达成这样一项促进繁荣的协议是一个重要的问题。

If our government were to carry out just one task, I’d want it to be population control, my first pillar for development. No amount of resources we put in education or health will ever be enough unless we control our runaway population growth.

如果我们的政府要执行一项任务，我希望它是控制人口，这是我发展的第一支柱。除非我们控制失控的人口增长，否则我们投入在教育或卫生方面的资源再多也不够。

Our population is growing at more than twice the rates of India and Bangladesh and three times the rate of Sri Lanka. Pakistan will forever be mired in poverty and illiteracy unless we bring down our population growth.

我们的人口增长速度是印度和孟加拉国的两倍多，是斯里兰卡的三倍。除非我们降低人口增长，否则巴基斯坦将永远陷入贫困和文盲的泥潭。

巴基斯坦黎明报读者的评论：

John the Baptist

Dec 08, 2022 08:06am

"Our population is growing at more than twice the rates of India and Bangladesh and three times the rate of Sri Lanka"

Be sure that, when the stuff hits the fan, they cannot get out as refugees to either the Western or Eastern neighbours - the sea or overseas will be their only escape routes.

“我们的人口增长速度是印度和孟加拉国的两倍多，是斯里兰卡的三倍。”

当陷入麻烦时，他们不能以难民的身份逃到西面或东面的邻国——海上或海外将是他们唯一的逃生路线。

Emad

2022  floods  pushes  an  additional  9  million  Pakistanis  into  poverty..

2022年洪水使900万巴基斯坦人陷入贫困。

Aryan

1. Population control to reduce the risks of tra in illiteracy and poor healthcare system
2. Devolution of power to local govts for better management.
3. Reducing expenditure in PSDP and defence to alleviate fiscal deficit.
4. Promotion of export-oriented products
5. Agricultural amelioration.

1.控制人口，减少陷入文盲，改善落后的医疗体系。

 2. 下放权力给地方政府，加强管理。

3. 减少社会发展和国防开支，以缓解财政赤字。

4. 促进出口产品

5.    农业改良。

Jaseem Ahmed

Well written article. One must agree that we are outgrowing the population but don’t forget the intake of refugees. The afghan refugees are still a burden to Pakistan economy and we don’t have any policies to deal with it. The Pak Afghan border is to lenient that anyone can pass it anytime without Visa.

不得不承认，我们的人口增长速度过快，但不要忘记难民的涌入。阿富汗难民仍然是巴基斯坦经济的负担，我们没有任何政策来解决这个问题。巴基斯坦和阿富汗边境的管理非常宽松，任何人都能随时通过，无需签证。

MirzaCanada

You are one of those elites

你就是精英中的一员

Robin Mitha

Very well written, provides food for thought. If National debate was on ideas such as the ones raised in this article and not limited to the current jostling for power maybe we could get somewhere.

写得很好，发人深省。如果全国能讨论关于这篇文章中提出的想法，而不局限于目前的权力争夺，也许我们可以有所收获。

Nazir

the pointed out issues are critical and need focus of the authorities..

你指出的问题是关键，需要当局的关注。

Dr.M.S Awan

I do agree with Mr. Miftah for population control. For this run away train nation must take its foot off the accelator and bring it down to less than 1% compared to current 2% growth. Idea of empowering local governments is good but I am sorry to say that so long there are corrupt officials and legislators it is not going to work. We need to strengthen accountability process to achieve desired results.

我同意作者控制人口的观点。对于这个“失控”的国家来说，必须把脚从油门上移开，将目前2%的增长率降至1%以下。赋予地方政府权力的想法是好的，但我很遗憾地说，只要有腐败的官员和立法者，这就不会起作用。我们需要加强问责程序，才能取得预期效果。

Saima

The elite steal our resources, they don’t just control them. People are starving, while Dar’s Rs500m assets will soon be unfrozen and flown out of the country. Is corruption still not an issue?

精英们不只是控制资源，还窃取我们的资源。人们正在挨饿，而达尔的5亿卢比资产将很快解冻并流到国外，腐败还不是问题吗？

M M. Amin (Old Ravian )

Great article. Federal system means strong local government. Our political elite believes: concentrate authority and delegate responsibility…..this is a recipe for disaster.

联邦制意味着强势的地方政府。我们的政治精英信奉：集中权力，下放责任.....这是一场灾难。

Khan

Without cheap energy you can not do anything. With cheap energy and local export oriented manufacturing and services sky is the limit. Open the market, make business friendly policies and infrastructure. Use the huge population as a cheap labour to produce things to build huge infrastructure projects.

没有廉价的能源，你什么都做不了。随着廉价能源和本地出口导向型制造业和服务业的发展，天空才是极限。开放市场，制定友好的政策，利用庞大的人口作为廉价劳动力来生产东西，并建设庞大的基础设施项目。

UK

Regarding LGs empowerment, they will never be fruitful without the development of proper system of checks and balances and awareness among the poplace. I belong to a place where elected chairman of tehsil is the brother of MPA and hails from rich family. Our elites won't let any opportunity of bribing common people slip of their hands.

关于权利下放到地方政府，如果没有适当的制衡制度，人民没有意识，就永远不会有成果。我所在的地方，当选的主席是MPA的兄弟，家境殷实。我们的精英阶层不会放过任何贿赂平民的机会。

Charadecalledpakistan.

Pakistan is not a sustainable nation, just realize that simple fact. East Pakistani's realized that very early on and the rest is history, salute their foresight, and taking the right decisions to seperate, otherwise they like us would be stuck in the quagmire that we have placed ourselves. We do not know where we are, and where we are heading.

巴基斯坦不是一个可持续发展的国家，要明白这个简单的事实。东巴基斯坦人很早就意识到这一点，向他们的远见致敬，他们做出了正确的决定，否则他们就会像我们一样陷入泥潭，不知道我们在哪里，也不知道我们要去哪里。

Khan

You can not reduce population over night, rather use the cheap labour to build the dams, highways, canals, railway tracks,forestation, agricultural projects,manufacturing, skilled labour export, etc.

不可能在一夜之间减少人口，不如使用廉价劳动力来建造大坝、高速公路、运河、铁路，植树造林、从事农业项目、制造业、进行技术劳动力输出等。

Mansur Ul Haque

Elites have control on everything.Population growth is hazard.Youth unemployment besides other thing diverting them to crimes.

Backwardness in eduction is root cause.  We have to send our skilled youngsters abroad to earn livings/reduce unemployment/un lawful activities, improve life style of future generation by giving them education abroad thus reducing the role of elites in our country.

精英控制着一切。人口增长是危险的。除了其他因素，年轻人失业导致他们犯罪。

教育落后是根本原因。我们必须把有技能的年轻人送到国外谋生，减少失业/非法活动，让他们在国外接受教育，改善下一代的生活方式，从而削弱国内精英的影响。

Sheikh Khalid

Small businesses and manufactures must grow.

小企业和制造业必须发展。

Dr. Salaria, Aamir Ahmad

Why didn't he say that when at the helm?

他自己在位的时候为什么不说出来呢？

yasser

The very first thing that ANY government that comes into power needs to do is to reform the traffic police. There are millions of violations on a daily basis that go unpunished thus costing the country billions in revenue on a daily basis. Fix this, get out of this economic mess within weeks or months!

任何政府上台后要做的第一件事就是改革交通法规。每天都有数以百万计的违规行为没有受到惩罚，使国家每天损失数十亿的收入。解决这个问题，在几周或几个月内就能摆脱经济混乱!

Aftab Ahmad

Population control is the first and foremost step but the problem in Pakistan is who will bell the cat. Who will do the necessary legislation?

控制人口是第一步也是最重要的一步，但巴基斯坦的问题是谁来承担风险，谁来进行必要的立法？

Mujahid Hussain

Our elite will never change its motto that’s loot and plunder.23 per cent will go to defense budget.70 per cent of budget will go for debt servicing. Remaining 7 per cent is for whole population.our civil and military bureaucrats don’t wanted to change in their behavior of lavish lifestyle.

我们的精英永远不会改变他们的座右铭，那就是掠夺。23%将用于国防预算，70%将用于偿债，剩下的7%是针对全体人口的。我们的文武官僚不想改变他们奢侈的生活方式。