三泰虎

印度经济增长的正确道路是什么?要靠出口还是靠消费?

印度经济增长的正确路径是什么?要靠类似中国的出口拉动型,还是靠类似美国的内需驱动

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Quora读者评论

Ankit Kumar, Liberal who accomodates all view points even conservative ones.
India should let the market forces decide what is the ideal path. Governments should stop wasting money on deciding where to invest. Any country which tries to run its economy on one engine is bound to fail. India should let markets to determine what is the need of hour. "Make in India" is a good concept but government should really do something about it. Till now it has been only talks no concrete steps. Give the power in the hands of people and they will definitely develop themselves. We have been growing way below potential because governments are deciding for people where to invest and how much to invest. India has not taken that much advantage of globalization that it should have. It is very naive to say that export or consumption can grow Indian economy. Economies grow only because of productivity growth of their citizens. India should focus on productivity growth and let the markets take care of rest

印度应该让市场力量来决定理想的道路。政府不要在决定投资目标上浪费金钱。任何一个试图用单个火车头来拉动经济的国家注定会失败。印度应该让市场来决定什么是当务之急。“印度制造”是一个不错的概念,但政府确实应该做些什么。到目前为止,这只是空谈,没有具体的步骤。把权力交给人民,人民自己一定会发展。我们的增长一直远远低于潜力,因为政府一直替人们决定投资在哪里、投资多少。印度并没有充分利用其应有的全球化优势。说出口或消费可以促进印度经济增长是非常天真的。经济增长只会因为公民的生产力增长才会实现。印度应该关注生产率增长,让市场来解决剩余问题。

 

Kishor Shah, Common Man
India has to attend the growth issue from both the ends. Export oriented growth is vulnerable with political surrounding and consumption oriented growth is dependent on govt ability to pump money at the bottom of the society.

印度必须同时从这两个方面关注增长问题。出口导向型增长容易受到政治环境的影响,而消费导向型增长依赖于政府向社会底层注入资金的能力。

The political atmosphere, these days, is highly unpredictable and govt continues to have shortage of fund. On top of these we have regulatory hurdles installed at every short distance and govt is unlikely to be able to correct this wrong.

当今的政治气氛是非常不可预测的,政府仍然缺乏资金。除此之外,我们设置了重重的监管障碍,政府不太可能有能力纠正这种错误。

Overall we are dependent on spirit of people to rise to prosperity which ultimately will push us on growth. Alternatively, State driven large programs will play some part, as I think.

总的来说,我们依靠人民的精神走向繁荣,这最终将推动我们的增长。或者,我觉得,国家驱动的大型项目也会起到一定的作用。

 

Mohit Ambani, Reading a lot about politics and policies
Looking at some fundamentals a strong economy is created by export led growth in the start thereby increasing the capita income and then make it a self consumption economy.

从一些基本面来看,强劲的经济最初是由出口带动增长的,从而提高了人均收入,然后使其成为消费经济。

USA was the factory house back in start and China is now the world's factory which will eventually have a transition to consumption based economy in near future.

美国最初是工厂,而中国现在成了世界工厂,在不久的将来,中国最终将向以消费为基础的经济转型。

India is a very big purchasing power economy but exports are not that high so most of India's revenue is from consumption.

印度是一个购买力很强的经济体,但出口还没有那么多,所以印度的大部分收入来自消费。


Mayur Vaghasiya, Stock Trader at Upadhyay's Securities (2016-present)
There is no magical formula which lead the country. First of all for Strong country growth needs country's population intric growth. Which is lead by employment.

领导这个国家没有什么神奇的公式。首先,强劲的国家经济增长需要国家的人口增长。这是就业带动的。

For country growth most important is employment of people. For that we must starting more and more manufacturing in India and then export outside of country.

对国家经济增长来说,最重要的是就业。为此,我们必须在印度打造越来越多的制造业,然后向国外出口。

But latest manufacturing data poorly and black true is that last 4 year no employment growth in India under NDA government as per RBI data. Employment growth flat.

但最新的制造业数据非常糟糕阴暗,印度央行数据显示,在全国皿煮联盟政府的领导下,印度过去4年的就业没有增长。就业增长不景气。

So we keep focus on manufacturing so that more and more job produce and also country growth faster rate.

因此,我们将重点放在制造业上,这样就会有越来越多的就业机会产生,国家经济增长也会更快。

 

Rakesh Wagh, Engineer, Healthcare, Information Technology
Adopting a particular economic model sounds very unnatural and unsustainable. World economy is like a big jigsaw puzzle. If a piece(country) does not find itself in a tight fitting position, it will often be marginalized (example north Korea and Iran to certain extend). America is a big central piece in this puzzle and being in such a dominant position it pretty much dictates how it would like other pieces to render themselves. Countries like Iran, Iraq and North Korea tried not to be part of this puzzle and define their own existence. However that did not work. In fact defining your own existence wont work unless their is a level playing field, where each piece of puzzle are equal.

采用某种特定的经济模式听起来非常不自然,并且不可持续。世界经济就像一幅巨大的拼图。如果一个国家没有发现自己处于一个非常合适的位置,它就会经常被边缘化(比如朝鲜和伊朗)。美国是这副拼图的核心部分,处于主导地位,它基本上决定了它希望其他部分该如何表现。伊朗、伊拉克和朝鲜等国试图不参与,自己做主。然而,这并没有奏效。事实上,想要自己做主是行不通的,除非这世界是一个公平的竞技场,每一块拼图都是平等的。

Long story short, India must decide how much of "globalization" it need to adopt. Less global economy for the country means less control in hands of America (and its allies). If India can find a self sustained local economic model where small economies/societies thrive and balance each other such that the net sum is progressive, then India will be able to achieve what lot of other countries could not and create a brand new economic eco system that is sustainable, progressive and less harm to the planet and its inhabitants

长话短说,印度必须决定需要多大程度的“全球化”。对这个国家来说,全球经济的减少意味着美国(及其盟友)控制的减少。如果印度能自给自足的地方经济模式,这样的小型经济/社会会促进彼此的发展和平衡,那么印度将能够实现很多其他国家都无法实现的目标,并创建一个全新的经济生态系统,可持续的、先进的、对地球和地球局面更无害的系统。

 

Dadi Naga Sai, Jai Hind
Many succesful people always say that if your path to success is making you feel like its a tough one then you're on the right path to success. And when you want to succeed as fast as you can with easy path you may first feel like you succeed but you'll come to know what happened later.

许多成功人士总是说,如果通往成功之路让你觉得很艰难,那么你就走在通往成功的正确道路上。当你想以最快的速度、通过简单的方法获得成功时,你可能一开始觉得自己成功了,但随后你就会知道发生了什么。

Export led growth is risky because even though you're an independent nation you're again dependent on other nations. If other nations fall then you'll also fall. If you're export led nation your position is just like any other street seller who is looking for someone to buy your goods so that you can eat for that night. Export lead growth is easy way to develop

以出口主导的增长是有风险的,因为即使你是一个独立的国家,你仍然要依赖其他国家。如果其他国家倒下,你也会倒下。如果你是出口导向型国家,你的处境就像其他街头小贩一样,期盼着别人来买你的商品,这样你的晚餐才有着落。出口带动增长是发展的捷径

Consumption LED growth is ideal because you're not looking for someone to come up and buy your goods. Even if other nations are falling you'd still be standing strong.

以消费主导的增长是理想的,因为你不需要找人来买你的产品。即使其他国家发生经济衰落,你依然坚挺。

Consumption led growth is a tough way to develop.

消费拉动增长是一条艰难的发展之路。

 

Mathew Cherian, I watch China as they drive the World Economy
This is a good question and very difficult to answer because the conditions prevailing in our country may not allow a choice in which ever direction one can go in our country. For example we live in Gandhian frugal environment. Anything that provide welfare is taxed as luxury. This mind set led to substandard products with no functional quality to be manufactured here. So our products became non competitive for world markets that prefer functional and hazard free products. We export mainly naturally occuring environmental products and materials much. Textiles sometimes find markets in south east Asian countries.

这是一个很好的问题,而且很难回答,因为我国目前的情况可能不允许印度人选择任何方向。例如,我们生活在甘地式的节俭环境中。任何好东西都被当作奢侈品征税。这种思维模式导致了质量不合格的产品的生产。因此,我们的产品在世界市场上不再具有竞争力,因为人们更喜欢功能性强和不需冒险的产品。我们主要出口自然产生的环保产品和原料。我们的纺织品有时能在东南亚国家找到一些市场。

On opening up the economy WTO quota helped us to improve this situation since other countries were forced to buy our products on a quota basis.

在开放经济方面,世贸组织的配额帮助我们改善了这种情况,因为其他国家迫于配额购买我们的产品。

Moreover our economy has no infrastructure of scientific quality to create large scale manufacturing base. A distance that can be covered in say 8 hours usually take 4 to 5 days for a truck to reach. This increase the cost of transportation and perishable goods cannot be transported this way. Moreover inter state taxes are heavy making transportation inefficient. One other major road block is poverty is rampant here making difficult to obtain and train work force who can provide quality workamanship. There is also deficit in power for large scale undertaking to come up and grow. Bureaucracy makes it more difficult to enter and operate here.

此外,我国经济没有科学合理的基础设施来创建大规模的制造业基地。8小时的路程一辆卡车要走通常需要4到5天。这增加了运输成本,易腐货物也无法以这种方式运输。此外,国家间税收沉重,使运输效率低下。另一个主要障碍是这里的贫困现象非常严重,很难找到并培训能够提供高质量工作能力的劳动力。官僚主义使得创业和运营变得更加困难。

These are few of the roadblock in restricting our choice as to what of philosophy work for India like local consumption led or export led. Ideally a hybrid form is better. We are building up our infrastructures slowly. May be in the future our environment will improve and faster resolutions will be possible with more committed and trained work force who find a need to be creative which help us in moving in the right direction.

这些都是限制印度发展的障碍,到底是要靠本地消费主导还是靠出口为主导。理想上说,两者兼具更好。我们正在缓慢地建设基础设施。也许在未来,我们的环境将会改善,更快的解决方案将成为可能,也会有更多忠诚、训练有素的劳动力,帮助我们朝着正确的方向前进。

 

Balaji Viswanathan, Knowledge lover.
There are different schools of thought.

对这个问题,有不同的思想流派。

One group of thought - held by the Indian government as of 2015 - is that China like model is more suitable to bring the poor out of lower rungs. While IT and finance might bring a lot of revenues & GDP addition, they don't employ the poor. Thus, we might be building two nice stories with no stairs inbetween for our poor to utilize the service revolution. Export led manufacturing has worked in a lot of countries - US, Europe, Japan, China, Korea - in the past and thus is a proven model.

印度政府在2015年提出的一种观点是,“中国模式”更适合让穷人摆脱贫困。虽然IT和金融可能带来大量收入和GDP的增加,但它们不会雇佣穷人。因此,我们可能正在一栋漂亮的两层小楼,但中间没有楼梯,我们的穷人无法利用服务革命。以出口为导向的制造业过去在美国、欧洲、日本、中国、韩国等许多国家都取得了成功,是一个经过验证的模式。

Another group of thought - held by the head of India's Reserve Bank - is that the China like model can no longer work. The global economy is far slower than India's domestic economy and thus it is pragmatic to focus on serving the domestic economy. This might help manage inflation better and might even offer faster growth.

印度央行行长持有的另一种观点是,类似中国的模式已经行不通了。全球经济远低于印度国内经济,因此注重为国内经济服务才是王道。这可能有助于更好地控制通胀,甚至可能提供更快的增长。

To understand these different schools of thought, you need to understand the fundamental objectives and strains. It is the job of the government to primarily focus on employment. No one else can do that. No jobs, no votes. On the other hand, RBI doesn't really care about jobs. It is not in its objective or mission. Its mission is to control inflation and rupee.

要理解这些不同的思想流派,你需要理解基本目标。关心就业应该是政府的主要工作。没人能做到。没有工作就没有选票。另一方面,印度央行并不真正关心就业。这不是它的目标或使命。它的任务是控制通货膨胀和卢比汇率。

Thus, the government makes an emotional appeal focusing on jobs, while the RBI makes a more logical approach of focusing on inflation. Export led policy would weaken currency and increase inflation. RBI doesn't like inflation.

因此,政府以就业为重点提出情感诉求,而印度央行则以更合理的方式关注通胀。出口主导的政策将会削弱货币并增加通货膨胀。印度不喜欢通货膨胀。

The question is between jobs and inflation and this is fundamentally all major economies face. The Prime Minister, like an entrepreneur, wants to gamble taking the China route. His banker says na! na! na!

这个问题介于就业和通胀之间,这是所有主要经济体面临的根本问题。总理就像企业家一样,想要冒险走中国路线。

In my personal opinion, we need to try a little more of the China model. US used to be the world's top exporter for a long time. Japan used that route too. It helps the poor better. Especially when companies are trying to cut costs during a slow down, India could potentially offer cheaper manufacturing in some sectors.

在我个人看来,我们需要多尝试一点中国模式。长期以来,美国一直是全球最大的出口国。日本也走过这条路。它能更好地帮助穷人。特别是当企业试图在经济放缓期间削减成本时,印度可以在某些领域提供更廉价的加工商品。

 

Dave Hines
There's a proverbial caution about putting all your eggs in one basket. Concentrating upon one strategy may not be the way to go. Exports can help develop a thriving domestic consumer base, but if it's the only basis the consumer base is not very widespread. You get what many decry as "wealth disparity".

 有一句谚语叫“孤注一掷”。专注于一种策略可能不是正确的做法。出口可以帮助发展繁荣的国内消费基础,但如果这是唯一的基础,消费基础就不是很广泛。你会得到许多人谴责的“贫富差距”。

Export-driven expansion often involves devaluation of the currency, as has been seen in China. This taxes the people to subsidize exports. Again this makes wealth disparity a problem. Those subsidized companies and bureaucrats get the money first; people at the bottom get the money only after its devaluation has neared or reached completion.

出口驱动型的发展常常包括人民币贬值,中国就是这样。这会向人民征税,补贴出口。这再次使贫富差距成为一个问题。那些得到补贴的公司和官僚首先赚到钱;只有在货币贬值接近或完成后,处于底层的人才能也分到些钱。

India has done some productive things such as microloans. 
印度做了一些有成效的事情,比如小额贷款。

India would do well to reduce the regulatory burdens. An experiment was done, by Reason magazine if I recall correctly. They filed to start a business in each of three places. In Hong Kong the governmental red tape was done in a day. In New York City it took a couple months. In India it took a couple years.  Placing such a drag upon development helps neither exports nor consumer vendors.

印度最好能减轻监管负担。有一个实验,如果我没记错的话,是理性杂志做的。他们申请在三个地方各开一家公司。在香港,政府的流程一天之内就完成了。在纽约花了几个月的时间。在印度花了几年时间。对发展造成这样的拖累既无助于出口,也无助于消费者。

I have no doubt that without the bureaucratic burdens the energy of Indian people could achieve quite a bit.

我毫不怀疑,如果没有官僚主义的负担,凭借印度人民的活力可以获得相当大的成就。

 

Pranav Kumar, Passionate about Economic Development
Export led growth.

出口导向型经济增长。

Consumption led growth is the tortoise and export led growth is the hare. Export led growth is likely to be faster than consumption led growth [1]. Export led growth is also likely to be more volatile and more susceptible to highs and lows of global cycles. The very small set of countries that rapidly became developed - the likes of post war Germany, Japan, Korea, Taiwan and Singapore - all had this strategy.

消费拉动增长是乌龟,出口拉动增长是兔子。出口导向型增长可能会快于消费导向型增长。出口主导的增长也可能比较不稳定,更容易受到全球周期的涨跌影响。那些迅速发展起来的非常小的国家——如战后的德国、日本、韩国、台湾和新加坡——都采取了这种战略。

If you believe this, the answer is straight forward. Why would India - a very poor country - not like to get rich faster and reduce poverty sooner? I think India can learn to manage the volatility that comes from being export dependent.

如果你相信这一点,答案很简单。为什么印度——一个非常贫穷的国家——不愿意更快地致富,更早地减少贫困?我认为印度可以学会应对出口依赖带来的波动。

The real question is not whether a developing country should try to achieve export-led growth, but whether it can, without resorting to short-cuts? By short-cuts I mean currency devaluation and/or subsidies and SOPs to artificially prop up the export sectors. Most export-led growth miracles have happened on the back of manufacturing, so a related question is can India (or Africa for that matter) grow based on manufacturing-led exports? And if not, does it mean India can not achieve miracle growth of China and others?

真正的问题不在于一个发展中国家是否应该努力实现出口拉动型增长,而在于它能否在不走捷径的情况下做到这一点?我所说的“捷径”指的是货币贬值和(或)补贴。大多数出口拉动型增长奇迹都有制造业的支持,因此一个相关的问题是,印度(或非洲)能否基于制造业为主导的出口实现增长?如果不是,这是否意味着印度无法实现中国和其他国家的奇迹增长?

I think India can achieve export-led growth, but it will not be as manufacturing heavy and hence as fast as in China. We have already got IT services and Pharma. Some manufacturing can definitely come up (admittedly much smaller than China even in best case, but a pillar of exports nevertheless). Tourism has billions of dollars worth of export potential. We also have couple of indirect levers: Remittances and Gold. Remittance - not exactly exports - are already very big and could be boosted further with emigration of Indians esp in healthcare services. On the other hand, if government is able to wean Indians of their Gold addiction and pursue them to monetize gold [2], that will also boost our "net" exports.

我认为印度可以实现出口拉动型增长,但它不会像中国那样倚重工业和快速增长。我们已经有了IT服务和医药业。一些制造业肯定会出现(诚然,即使在最好的情况下,规模也比中国小得多,但仍是出口的支柱)。旅游业有价值数十亿美元的潜力。我们还有一些间接手段:侨汇和黄金。侨汇——确切地说,并不是出口——已经非常庞大,并可能随着印度人(尤其是医疗服务领域的印度人)移民海外而进一步增加。另一方面,如果政府能够戒掉印度人对黄金的依赖,让他们把黄金货币化,这也将促进我们的“净”出口。

Whether India will succeed remains to be seen, but it is possible!

印度能否成功还有待观察,但这是存在可能的!

来源:三泰虎 译者:Joyceliu

外文链接:https://www.quora.com/What-is-the-correct-path-for-Indias-growth-Export-led-growth-like-China-or-Growth-led-due-to-self-consumption-like-the-United-States


 

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