India’s $12.5 Trillion Dream: The Growth Problem No One Is Talking About | Indian Express Special

《印度快报》特约报道：印度12.5万亿美元经济梦，被众人忽视的增长难题

Can India really become a $12.5 trillion economy by 2036? JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon believes India’s economy could triple in the next 10 years. But there’s a crucial question behind that projection: is he talking about India’s GDP in rupees or US dollars?

印度GDP到2036年真的能达到12.5万亿美元规模吗？摩根大通首席执行官杰米·戴蒙认为，未来十年印度经济规模有望增加2倍。但这一预测背后有一个关键问题：他所说的印度国内生产总值，是以印度卢比计价，还是以美元计价？

以下是印度网友的评论：

ad2858
I have switched to Indian Express from The Times of India.

我已经不再看《印度时报》，以后都改看《印度快报》了。

klintcook‑z8m
Bruv should have done that some ten years ago

老哥，你十年前就该这么做了。

 

travelzone‑z6g
Oops and how wrong was indian express with it terrible reporting of vote chori?

呵，那《印度快报》当初报道所谓窃选事件，报道错得有多离谱？

 

rambo19786
Does it matter when only few get rich.

如果只有少数人能发财，经济再好又有什么意义。

gauravarora9752
You r absolutely right

你说得完全没错。

Aura14122
Do you think that you will get rich by crying like this all the day? Don't you think that you will have to take efforts to be rich instead of just hating rich peoples

你觉得成天就这么发牢骚就能变有钱吗？想要致富得自己努力，而不是一味仇视富人。

rambo19786
​ @Aura14122 you don't know me buddy. I am talking in general about what's happening.

朋友，你并不了解我。我说的是印度当下社会的普遍现状。

 

Akumakunanime
Well few in India means more population than most countries so yeah it matters obviously

要知道，印度的少数富人，人数都比大多数国家总人口还多

 

yusuindia6298
Well said madam, thanks to indian express, because our economist are silent, atleast indian express highlights the real truth, jai ho madam

说得好。多亏了《印度快报》。国内一众经济学家都集体沉默，至少这家媒体敢于把真相摆上台面。致敬。

 

Catman.RajuTheBoss
7.8 is just pre planned data because Per capita income is showing reality

7.8%这个增速就是提前定好的数据，人均收入才反映真实情况。

 

kasturirangan1497
56 inch (7 x 8). 2nd qtr they will show as 7.6 (PM's age)

7乘8等于56。下个季度，他们就会报7.6%，刚好是莫迪总理的年龄（76岁）。

 

DEMONS‑SHADOW
so even world bank and imf is being fooled by it ?

这么说，世界银行和国际货币基金组织也被蒙骗了吗？

 

upendranathvaish1634
Piyush Goyal or for that matter, any POLITICIAN is like "" जो मुंह मे आए, बक दो, नीचे आए, हद दो ""! Accountability तो कोई है नहीं, फेंकने में क्या जाता है ।

皮尤什·戈雅尔，以及绝大多数政客，都是张口就随便吹大话。完全不用承担责任，随便说几句又没有什么损失。

 

MK7750
Sad part is
In our great leap forward we are continuously facing major global challenges, covid, rus ukraine war, iran war, trump economic nationalism
While in chinese case they had best 2 decades from 1996 to 2016, especially as it was peak globlisation

让人无奈的是，我们想要大步发展，却接连遭遇全球性危机：新冠疫情、俄乌冲突、美伊战争，还有特朗普搞的经济民族主义。反观中国，1996‑2016这二十年是它发展的黄金时期，那时候全球化也是如火如荼地进行啊

 

sidhantrenuse6065
If the team from Indian Express is this reading this, one important correction for you. GDP in dollar terms is simply calculated as nominal GDP in INR multiplied by the USD INR rate. Due to heavy depreciation in the value of INR, with USD/INR being currently around 96, the value of India's GDP in USD terms is much much lesser.
Add to that, the government in February officially revised DOWN its nominal GDP INR numbers to 345 lakh crore from 357 lakh crore. So actual dollar terms GDP is less than 3.7 trillion dollars. It is not 4.2 trillion as claimed by various media, specifically to the fall in rupee. Due to rupee depreciation our GDP currently is the same as 2021,2022 levels.

如果《印度快报》的编辑能看到这里，有个关键点需要纠正。美元计价GDP，就是卢比计价的名义GDP乘以美元兑卢比汇率。如今卢比大幅贬值，汇率大概到1美元兑96卢比，印度换算成美元的GDP就会大幅缩水。

另外，政府二月份已经下调国内名义GDP数据，从357万亿卢比下调至345万亿卢比。换算成美元，实际GDP还不到3.7万亿美元，并不像很多媒体鼓吹的4.2万亿美元，根源就是卢比贬值。受卢比下跌影响，现在我们美元GDP水平，和2021、2022年基本持平。

 

durgaprasad814
Like how? With no school, or Hospital.. even donkeys die with out food.

拿什么实现？学校、医疗设施都跟不上，连牛啊、驴啊之类的牲口都吃不饱。

 

Cellpeg
In Bollywood, anything is possible. Do not like the figures?, just do what Godi does best, change the way to calculate it.

宝莱坞里什么奇迹都能上演。对数据不满意？那就照搬御用媒体那套玩法，直接修改统计方式。

 

arbulusu
25 year time limit is chosen because none or most of those in power today will not be there 25 years later. So there is no chance that Mr. Goyal can be questioned

之所以定25年这么久的期限，是因为现在掌权的这批人，二十五年后基本都不在位了。到时候戈雅尔自然不用为此接受质问。

 

ArnrReddy‑d4b
We are with you. You are saving India

我们支持你们。你们在拯救印度。

 

johnsonk7490
But for rupee to fall means we are not competitive. Basically a dead economy. Presently the growth is import based. We import components, Apl, from china and assemble it and then export.

卢比持续贬值，说明我们印度经济缺乏竞争力，经济活力不足。眼下的增长高度依赖进口：从中国进口零部件，国内组装完成之后再出口。

 

infinow
Even doubling in 10 years will be difficult. Maybe 1.8x. but I wish I turn out wrong.

十年之内，印度GDP就算翻一倍都很难，最多增长80%。当然我希望我的判断是错的。

 

sylvianblade75
Impossible to triple the economy now you need minimum 10% growth after subtracting inflation which is going to be very high in the coming years due to wars and oil shocks. And even if we achieve 10+% growth, it will slow down like most advanced economies do. 35T by 2047 is also next to impossible. Even China will probably be a 40T Economy and USA 50T. And India has no geography or resources or energy advantage to become a global player.

经济规模增加2倍，基本不现实。剔除通胀之后，每年至少要保持10%增速。受战争、石油危机影响，未来通胀还会居高不下。就算GDP真实现10%以上增速，后期也会像多数发达经济体一样增速回落。2047年达到35万亿美元目标几乎无望。到时候，中国GDP体量大概40万亿，美国50万亿。印度在地理、资源、能源上都没有优势，很难成为全球经济巨头。

 

vt777‑t3n
Who will tell the govt. to stop misleading people by giving these fake ideas of viksit bharat 2047.
It is impossible to achieve these numbers and even if we does the income is mostly concentrated in the hands of only few

谁能劝劝政府，别拿“2047发达印度”这类口号误导民众。这些经济目标根本完不成。就算勉强达成，绝大部分财富也只会攥在少数人手里。

 

upendranathvaish1634
And even The Data released by This Regime, whatever little is released, is Not at all "" TRUSTWORTHY"".

而且本届政府对外放出的那点数据，完全不可信。

 

shivashaw2220
Visit bharat will remain a dream in next 100 years. Look at our gdp per capita, lower than bangladesh, srilanka and Bhutan. So 5th or 4th largest economy status does mean anything for majority of the Indian population due to high income inequality.

建成发达印度，未来一百年都只会是梦。看看我们的人均GDP，还不如孟加拉国、斯里兰卡、不丹。虽说经济体量排世界第四第五，但贫富差距巨大，这对绝大多数普通印度人没有实际意义。

 

Niteshjain007
I think in next 2‑3 years we will also start to see indian nominal GDP growth coming down to 7‑8% range

我认为再过两到三年，印度名义GDP增速会回落至7%‑8%区间。

 

shanmugch3960
Middle claas salried economy is slip. Costs are going high, specially food costs, education cost, medical costs and Govt does lipservice. Pharma is sold at 2800%, what is Govt doing. Govt may say many things, practically no consequense. It may be working for rich but not working for many.

靠工资生活的中产，日子越来越难。各项开支飞涨，食品、教育、医疗开销尤其高，政府只会嘴上安抚。部分药品溢价高达28倍，政府却不作为。口号喊得响亮，却没有实际举措。这套体系惠及富人，却照顾不到大多数普通人。

 

SelvaKumar‑z6h
Going by the gdp growth, we may reach 16 to 18 trillion by 2047. No question of 35 trillion.

按现在的GDP增速推算，2047年印度GDP最多达到16‑18万亿美元，35万亿的目标想都别想。

 

HrishikeshAgarwal
Very well explained that to achieve the target of tripling the economy in dollar terms india needs to grow at a CAGR of 14.7% to become a 12.5% trillion dollar economy by 2036. But there's also a probability that the USD can top out here after maybe reaching the 100 usd inr mark and then rupee starts appreciating at an average rate of 3‑4% every year. We can achieve the same milestone at current level of GDP growth only if the rupee starts appreciating and this phenomenon is highly likely couple of years down the line

想要美元计价GDP增加2倍，在2036年达到12.5万亿美元，复合年增长率必须达到14.7%。不过也存在另一种可能性：美元兑卢比涨到100之后见顶回落，卢比随后每年平均升值3%‑4%。如果卢比开启升值，维持现有GDP增速也能达成目标，未来几年这种情况是有可能发生的。

 

muralikf
Also with AI blue collar jobs are being lost since 2022 and dollar remmittances will also reduce in future due to many indians returning.. so no way gdp can reach 30 trillion.. also the protests are increasing which will affect economy adversely.

另外从2022年起，人工智能大规模应用后，开始挤掉蓝领岗位。大量海外印度人回国，未来侨汇收入也会缩水。GDP根本不可能冲到30万亿。各类抗议活动越来越多，也会给经济拖后腿。

 

harshithhari3162
When you ask students of (a+b)2 how much India's economy will grow by X years? They have 30TN with the help of inflation.

就算只会代数基础的学生，靠着通胀的加持，都能算出30万亿这种数字。

 

abrahimismail4759
India must look per Capita GDP n not GDP growth only....in half century India per Capita just around 800 to 2,500US dollars...not much change in economy growth n expansion... next decade to achieve must take triple effort in whole government resources... At current India government establishment n political architecture look like near impossible to achieve..

印度不能只盯着GDP增速，更要看人均GDP。半个世纪以来，我们的人均GDP只从800美元涨到2500美元，实际提升有限。想要在下个十年实现突破，政府要付出三倍努力，调动全部资源。以现在印度的行政与政治体制来看，几乎很难做到。

 

anilpareek9854
Why Indian ₹ going to down in comparison of US Dollar

为什么印度卢比兑美元一直在贬值？

 

unnisapp
I think as per maths, if Indian GDP is growing at a rate above 10%, the Dollar vs INR will also shift. INR will start becoming stronger, fall of 3.2% yearly won't happen. India may try to bring down INR by buying US Treasuries same way how China did when it was growing. Similarly when Indian growth crosses 8‑9%, we can see mass inflows of FII and FDI as India is next growing economy for another 2 decades. It will further boost the economic growth faster.
I think, we can easily compare it with the journey of China.

按理论推算，如果印度GDP增速超过10%，美元兑卢比的汇率也会改变。卢比会走强，不会每年贬值3.2%。印度也可以效仿当年发展时期的中国，买入美债，主动压低卢比汇率。同样，如果经济增速突破8‑9%，未来二十年印度作为潜力市场，会迎来海量外资、外商直接投资涌入，进一步拉动经济提速。我们完全可以参考中国的发展历程。