India and China have started diverging on a key parameter: population.

印度与中国在一项关键指标上已经开始出现分化，那就是人口。

China’s population peaked in 2021 at 1.4 billion and has been falling since. By the end of this century it is expected to be around 600 million, roughly the same as in 1950. That is why China has been focusing more and more on automation.

India’s current population is about 1.45 billion. It is expected to peak around 2060 at 1.7 billion. A fall in the fertility rate does not produce an immediate fall in population because India’s median age is still under 30.

India is likely to end this century with a population roughly around thrice that of China.

That is why a fall in the fertility rate is a non issue for India as a whole.

Even a state like Tamil Nadu, where the fertility rate is already low, is projected to have roughly the same population in 2047 as it has today- around 80 million. The share of working age people would still be around 60% +, which is ,more than adequate in a world moving toward automation and AI.

We often get our priorities wrong. A falling fertility rate is not the main challenge for us. A few years ago I also thought it was. Deeper research changed that view.

In fact, economically weaker states still have high TFRs. Poverty plus rapid population growth is a bad combination. These states should focus on reaching and staying near the replacement level of 2.1.

The real question is how we will meet the needs, wants and aspirations of such a large number of people.

中国人口在2021年达到14亿的峰值，之后便开始持续下降。预计到本世纪末，中国人口将降至约6亿，大致回到1950年的水平。这也是中国越来越重视自动化技术的原因。

印度当前人口约14.5亿，预计将在2060年前后达到17亿的人口峰值。生育率下降并不会立刻带来人口缩减，因为印度人口的中位年龄仍不到30岁。到本世纪结束时，印度人口规模大概会是中国的三倍。

所以整体来看，生育率下降对印度算不上什么难题。即便是泰米尔纳德邦这种生育率已经走低的邦，预测到2047年人口和现在基本持平，维持在8000万左右。劳动年龄人口占比依旧会保持在60%以上。在全球逐步走向自动化与人工智能的时代，这个劳动力储备完全够用。

我们常常搞错需要优先处理的问题。生育率下降并不是我们面临的核心挑战。几年前我也曾这么认为，但深入研究之后，我的看法发生了改变。实际上，经济欠发达的各邦总和生育率依旧居高不下。贫困叠加人口快速增长，才是糟糕的组合。这些邦应当努力把生育率稳定在人口更替水平2.1附近。真正的难题，是如何满足规模如此庞大的人口的各类需求、诉求与发展期待。

以下是各国网友的评论：

ABM
French Revolution in making 170 cr ! Or Nature will take care of
Standard of living & Happiness Index for masses gone for toss.
Per capita Income less than $5000. With Himalayan glaciers gone Indo Gangs belt brutally hit Wild Wild West

人口达到17亿，印度很可能爆发类似法国大革命那样的动荡。再不处理，就只能靠自然力量强行调节人口。

印度普通老百姓的生活水平、幸福指数已经一落千丈。

人均收入还不到5000美元。如果喜马拉雅冰川消失，印度‑恒河平原将不适合人类居住，局势会彻底乱套。

 

GAP Reporter
When India’s poverty levels were extremely high in the early stages of development, the government took population control very seriously. This was one of the factors that contributed to the development we have achieved today.
Therefore, the government cannot afford to even indirectly encourage population growth in the states.
The delimitation issue gives the Centre a good opportunity to remind the states—and citizens in general—that population control remains a serious and pressing issue.

印度发展早期，国内贫困问题极其严重，当时政府十分重视人口管控。这也是我们能取得如今发展成果的原因之一。

所以中央政府绝不能变相纵容各邦人口继续增长。

选区重新划分这件事，正好给了中央一个契机，提醒各个邦以及全体民众：人口管控依旧是严峻而紧迫的大事。

 

Karthik
People had more children simply because many didnt survive to adulthood. Life expectancy during independence was 25. It was far more likely that you will die due to Pox or TB. As medicine improved people started living longer . It took a while for people to have less children.

过去人们生很多孩子，纯粹是因为不少孩子活不到成年。印度刚独立时人均预期寿命只有25岁，很多人会死于天花或者肺结核。随着医疗水平进步，人的寿命变长，人们过了一段时间才慢慢少生孩子。

 

Karthik
Many southern states hit replacement level by the millennium itself. The population is still growing because lifespans have increased. In AP avg age 19 in 1991 , 22 in 2001 , 34 in 2026. United states is at 38.

印度不少南方邦在千禧年前后生育率就已经降到人口更替水平。人口还在上涨，只是因为人均寿命提高。安得拉邦1991年人口平均年龄19岁，2001年22岁，2026年已经到34岁。美国的人口平均年龄是38岁。

 

K.C. Sreenath
The huge worry is that by 2060 indias senior citizens would be a whop 260 to 300 million( around 22 to 25 percent) and growing. Providing an unproductive population with basics like food and medical care will be a humongous and impossible task given our current trajectory

有一件事非常让人担忧：到2060年，印度老年人口会暴涨到2.6亿‑3亿，占总人口22%‑25%，而且数字还会继续走高。按照现在的发展趋势，要养活这一大批不再参与生产的老人，保障他们吃饭、看病等基本需求，将会是几乎完成不了的沉重负担。

 

Kiruthika.J
The last statement about poverty and population boom is the key point we need to take, leads to the downfall in development because providing basic needs holds priority there

文章最后提到贫困遇上人口暴涨，这点值得我们重视。在这类地区，政府只能优先保障民众基本生存，会拖累整体发展。

 

sriram p
India tfr should ideally be around 1.5 or so. There are way too many people for a relatively small sized land

理想状态下，印度的总和生育率最好控制在1.5左右。我们国土面积不算大，但人口实在太多。

 

Souvik Ghosh
And to top it all, our resources as a country are limited. We have the world's largest population but we are No. 7 in size.
BTW, your point on the peaking of population is well‑noted.

雪上加霜的是，本国资源总量有限。我们人口世界第一，国土面积却只排全球第七。

顺带说一句，你提到人口会到达峰值的观点，我很认同。

 

CapitalClues
But the political aspect not looked into, non tamil ethnicity becoming majority in tamils and subjugation tamils politically as well permanently, now atleast we are subjugated economically only

但有一层政治因素没有被谈到：外来族群会在泰米尔纳德邦变成多数群体，泰米尔人会在政治层面被永久压制。现在至少我们还只是在经济上处于弱势。

 

Ganesh Iyer
I feel central government should strongly encourage two different policies‑One where TFR rate is above 2.1 to control child birth and other one to improve fertility where it is falling below replacement level like TN.Future of India depends entirely on this policy.

我认为中央政府应当推行两套差异化政策。总和生育率高于2.1的地区，要控制生育；像泰米尔纳德邦这类生育率已经低于更替水平的地区，则要鼓励生育。印度的未来完全取决于这套政策。

 

Gyana Senapati
What is your view on some state’s encouraging policy to increase population …
For example:
1. AP govts incentive for 3rd and 4th child
2. Tamil Nadu’s 365 days maternity leave for 3rd child
Why State govt’s are not thinking to control Population?

如何看待部分邦出台政策鼓励多生孩子？

举两个例子：

1、安得拉邦给生第三胎、第四胎家庭发放补贴。
2、泰米尔纳德邦生第三胎可以享受365天产假。

为什么这些邦的政府不去想着控制人口？

 

CapitalClues
Dmk propagandizes the "We two ours one!" in all commercial vehicle while propagating ours 3 to 4 across border via their blood link parties, perhaps they want to bring about demographic change and make tn third their own race majority state and foolish tamils fully support same!

德拉维达进步联盟一方面在各类营运车辆上宣传“夫妻两个，只生一个”，另一方面，又通过关系密切的外围党派，在别的地方鼓吹生三到四个孩子。他们恐怕是想改变人口结构，让外来族群成为泰米尔纳德邦的主体，可不少泰米尔人还傻乎乎地支持他们。

 

Karthik
Because the states with low populations will be penalized or migrations will ensure the culture of state will change. By 2100 , Tamil might even become a minority language in Tamil Nadu.

因为生育率低的邦会在政治席位上吃亏，外来人口迁入也会改变当地本土文化。到2100年，泰米尔语在泰米尔纳德邦甚至都可能变成少数人使用的语言。

 

Pradeep Kumar
Tamil Nadu's total fertility rate is 1.3 which is very low it means we will be reduce in future

泰米尔纳德邦总和生育率只有1.3，水平很低，意味着未来本地人口规模会萎缩。

 

harri harri
Politics of the Union Govt is forcing this stance by Southern states. Unlikely to actually work but puts pressure

是联邦层面的政治博弈，逼得南方各邦做出这类政策表态。这套做法大概率不会真正见效，但会带来不小压力。

 

PopatGuru
A fall in fertility rate is not an issue at all?
You must then say, exstence of our human civilization is not needed at all. Machines and robots will carry it forward.

生育率下降完全不是问题？

照这个逻辑，那干脆说人类文明都没必要延续，全部交给机器和机器人就行了。

 

ParMan
China's population is overrated, they never had the numbers that is said
China's population in 1950 was 500 million, it takes fertility of 4‑5 to double the population in 50 yrs, no way they had fertility of 5 for 5 decades.
Since 1980 they have implemented 1 child policy

外界高估了中国人口，实际并没有宣传的那么多。

1950年中国人口5亿，如果50年内人口要翻一倍，总和生育率要达到4‑5。中国不可能连续五十年维持5这么高的生育率。

而且从1980年开始，他们推行了独生子女政策。

MetaHacker
been there twice. outside of major cities, it really does feel empty

我去过中国两次。离开大城市之后，很多地方看上去人口很稀疏。

Grove
So you mean that as China’s population declines, Chinese people will become increasingly wealthy. Thanks a lot.

所以你的意思是，人口变少之后，中国人就会越来越富裕？多谢你的高见。

 

ParMan
Falling fertility rate is a concern, no country in the world is able to reverse it, so many examples from west. Once fertility rate is gone, civilizations wipe out in no time.

生育率下滑是个大麻烦。全世界没有哪个国家可以扭转这个趋势，西方就有大量实例。生育率一旦垮掉，一种文明很快就会走向消亡。

 

Hans Kelsen
Fertility in the west fell below replacement years ago. But their economies are still doing well. Productivity of the prevailing population matters. First make the large Indian youth population productive. No point worrying about fertility now.

西方国家生育率多年前就跌破人口更替线，但经济依旧运转良好。真正关键的是现有人口的生产效率。印度有大量年轻人，先把这部分人的生产能力调动起来，现在操心生育率为时过早。

 

ParMan
These things take decades to reflect, why do you think west had to open borders for immigrants and whats happening there now?
west is increasing their retirement age as there is no young population to work.

这类问题的后果要几十年才会显现。不然你想想，西方国家为什么要放开国门接收移民，如今又面临哪些社会问题？

西方国家不断延迟退休年龄，就是因为缺少年轻劳动力。

 

Pratheep Shetty.
Not the time to worry about fertility rate now. It is the time to improve the quality of life.

现在不该纠结生育率，当务之急是提升民众生活质量。

 

Niraj Kumar
Sir how much would be global population by 2060 with respect to now??

想问一下，对比现在，2060年全球人口大概会到多少？

 

MoneyTalkWithL
From 1.45 billion to 1.70 billion in 33 years.
We got to get our priorities in order.

33年时间，人口从14.5亿涨到17亿。

我们得分清事情的轻重缓急。

 

sriram
Well said. Add
1.Tech driven productivity increases (Indians have amongst the lowest productivity in the world)
2. Massive disguised employment in rural / agri economy
3. Transition of dole to work for wages

说得很好，再补充三点：

1、依靠技术提升劳动效率（印度人的劳动效率处于全球较低水平）
2、农村和农业领域存在大量隐性失业
3、把单纯救济补贴，改成以工代赈

 

MHGAGirlOnX
We will destroy Middle class and import saar that's the government plan. Except farmers and industrialist all others are irrelevant and should die paying fraud taxes saar

政府的计划就是毁掉本国中产阶级，引进外来人口。除农民和大企业老板，其余人都无足轻重，就该承担不合理的税负。

 

Ashok S
Well said. Many talking mouth just dish out western narrative. Life span increasing for most call for different working policies.

说得对。很多人只会照搬西方那套说法。国民平均寿命变长，就需要配套不一样的劳动制度。

 

Karthik
Millennials will enter retirement in 20‑25 years. Gen X and millennials and boomers if alive will have to be supported by Gen Z and a far lower Gen Alpha population. Their productivity levels have to go up or they will be taxed to death.

再过20‑25年，千禧一代就要陆续退休。还在世的X世代、千禧一代、婴儿潮一代，养老重担就要落到Z世代和规模小得多的阿尔法世代身上。年轻人必须提高生产效率，不然就会被沉重的税负压垮。

 

Jason
Population with completely different demographics and may be lower productivity & environmental destruction which will result in higher poverty and lower standard of living

人口结构彻底改变，再叠加劳动效率低下、环境遭到破坏，最终只会让贫困加剧，整体生活水平下降。

 

Raghu
We have seen with IT era, building intelligent utilities require huge bunch of labourers to convert the 'Thinkers' thoughts to reality (coding, maintenance etc.)
The next opportunity opning is AI, which will encompass both Digital analytics development efforts and physical robotic mechanisms. Indians will be required to convert the Thinker's vision for emerging technology development in coming years.
Humans will still be cheaper to work with, compared to Humanoids (even after it is optimised to work dependably) for activities which are not repetitive or demand high degree of consistency.

从IT时代就能看出来，要把设计者的构想落地，需要大量人员做编码、运维这类实操工作。

下一个风口就是人工智能，既需要开发数字分析系统，也需要实体机器人硬件。未来，需要大量印度人把技术设计者的构想转化成现实产品。

对于那些非重复性、对灵活度要求高的工作，就算人形机器人调试稳定好用，人力成本依旧会比机器人更低。