India's Fertility Rate is Crashing! | Will It Hurt Economic Growth Like Japan? | StudyIQ IAS

印度生育率骤降！会重蹈日本覆辙、拖累经济增长吗？

Is India heading toward a population collapse similar to Japan and China? In this crucial explainer, StudyIQ IAS decodes the sudden and sharp decline in India's Total Fertility Rate (TFR) and its long-term impact.

According to recent demographic surveys, India’s national fertility rate has fallen well below the replacement level of 2.1. While a slowing population reduces short-term resource strain, it poses a massive threat to our demographic dividend. As the share of the working-age population begins to shrink in the coming decades, India faces the grim prospect of getting old before it gets rich.

印度是否会步日本、中国后尘，陷入人口锐减困境？印度总和生育率的骤然大幅下滑，及其带来的长期影响。

近期人口统计调查显示，印度全国生育率已远低于2.1的人口更替基准。人口增速放缓虽能短期缓解资源压力，却会严重冲击人口红利。未来数十年，劳动年龄人口占比将逐步下降，印度或将陷入未富先老的严峻局面。

India is now the world's most populous country, home to nearly 1.45 billion people and around 18% of humanity. But beneath those massive numbers, a major demographic shift is underway. According to the United Nations Population Fund, India's fertility rate has fallen to 1.9 births per woman, that's below the replacement level of 2.1 needed to maintain a stable population over the long term. The decline has happened faster than many experts expected, prompting fresh debate about India's demographic future. Elon Musk, who has repeatedly warned that falling birth rates pose a major threat to human civilisation, has now turned his attention to India. Is he right to be concerned? What is driving India's fertility decline? And what could it mean for the economy, workforce, ageing population, and India's long-term growth story?

印度如今已是全球人口第一大国，总人口近14.5亿，约占世界总人口的18%。庞大的人口基数之下，一场重大的人口结构变革正在上演。

联合国人口基金数据显示，印度女性总和生育率已降至1.9，低于维持人口长期稳定所需的2.1人口更替水平。此次生育率下滑速度远超诸多专家预期，也再度引发各界对印度人口发展前景的讨论。

埃隆·马斯克曾多次警示，生育率下降会对人类文明构成巨大威胁，如今他也将目光投向了印度。他的担忧是否合理？是什么导致了印度生育率走低？这又会对该国经济、劳动力市场、人口老龄化态势以及长期发展前景产生哪些影响？

以下是印度网友的评论：

creater1373
Raising one child nowadays is very expensive so parents cannot afford to raise more children.

现在养一个孩子成本就很高，普通家庭实在养不起更多孩子。

bhaveshpatil122
Wolves are worried because sheep aren't breeding.

狼开始焦虑了，因为羊群不再繁衍后代了。

anshutripathi9838
But good for climate

不过这对生态气候倒是件好事。

Saty676
Be Antinatalist
Save Your Children From Suffering and Climate Change

选择少生不生吧。别让孩子来到世上受苦，也免受气候问题的影响

DeciplineMan-g7r
Wow amazing dialogue

哇，大家聊得真热闹。

monicasahay5321
It's not disaster, rich business men are worried that access to cheap labour will not last.

这并不是什么灾难。真正发愁的是富商，他们怕以后再也找不到廉价劳动力了。

adityanishad4985
Alarming For Billionaires And Rich People.
Good For Common people wages will Rise.

这件事让富豪们忧心忡忡。但对普通人是好事，工资会跟着上涨。

Saty676
Be Antinatalist
Save Your Children From Suffering and Climate Change

倡导少生不生。别让孩子承受生活苦难和气候带来的困扰

sayanpatra7035
no.....wages will not rise due to drop in demand.....suppose u wrk in a toy company...if few children buy toys..how will ur salary increase

并不会涨工资的，市场需求下降了。举个例子，你在玩具厂上班，孩子变少、玩具销量下滑，你的薪水怎么可能涨？

lakhannagale5874
This is the good news

这是个好消息。

RamachandraMohanta-u4u
This is not good for gov. But good for us

对政府来说不是好事，但对我们普通人有利。

Timepouse
china apni population ka achha stemal kiya aur o aaj sabse achha kamane wala desh ban gaya ... magar bharat apne swarnim yug ko barbad kar diya apne yuva sakti ka stemal nahi kar paya ....

中国合理调控了人口，如今成了经济实力强劲的国家。可印度没能用好年轻劳动力，白白错失了发展的黄金时期。

financialLiteracy2000
Pr jo garib anpadh hai unke ghar me aaj bhi 6-7 bachche hai

但那些贫困、没受过教育的家庭，现在依旧会生六七个孩子。

baldeepsingh7280
Finally India is healing

印度总算在往好的方向发展了。

nitikasingh
Hum log unki tarah 100 saal nhi jeene waale. No problem.

我们普通人也活不到一百岁，没什么大问题。

mkgaminghindi990
@nitikasingh hn hm jaldi mar jayenge

 是啊，我们本就寿命不长。

dipeshrawat251
India is leading to civil war

印度这样下去会引发内乱。

prakashdangi7261
This is absolutely good news for the country like India

对于印度这样的国家来说，这绝对是个好消息。

kamalthakur416
Hum do humare rehne do

只生两个孩子就够了。

Sudhanshushauray420
Tension for rich billionaire and leaders, and other developed country who use indian as labour

富豪、政客，还有那些依靠印度劳动力的发达国家，现在都开始紧张了。

soumyadeep_bhattacharjee
Look at the tax expenses lacks of good jobs. It's almost impossible for common man to have children now a days

如今赋税压力大，好工作又稀缺，普通人根本不敢生孩子。

adityanishad4985
Only High Tech Jobs Available in India Delivery Guy in Zomato Swiggy And Picker packer in Blinkit Zepto

印度现在要么是高科技岗位，要么就是外卖骑手、仓库分拣员这类基础工种。

silkykamboj6874
Finally a good news

总算迎来一件好事了。

Clentical
Finally something good is happening

终于有积极的变化了。

vbgencyclo
GOOD NEWS FOR INDIA AND WORLD.

对印度乃至全世界而言，这都是好消息。

Manojyadav-j6q7t
Kahe ki working population hai. Yaha job kisi ko mil nahi rahi hai mil rahi hai to accha paisa nahi hai.

就算劳动人口再多又怎样？很多人找不到工作，就算有工作，收入也少得可怜。

bhaveshpatil122
INDIA is healing.

印度正在逐步变好。

reashat9955
Read a book on demographic study. You will understand what happens when the number of old citizens becomes much higher than the number of young citizen.

去读读人口学相关书籍就会明白，当老年人数量远超年轻人时，社会会出现什么样的问题。

rajeshbabariya7008
Finally Log Ab Samajdar Hote Ja Rahe Hai

民众总算变得理智清醒了。

sachinbhat1857
If this is true then we are blessed

如果数据属实，那我们算是幸运的。

DeciplineMan-g7r
Really good news for India but some mental teacher says it's bad for India

这对印度来说真是好事，可有些专家却唱反调，说这会带来负面影响。

sekharsatya2359
Elon has never been in Mumbai Train

埃隆·马斯克根本没体验过孟买拥挤的火车。

harishshukla4740
Why he is worried when he is planning to live on Mars

他都打算移居火星了，还有什么可操心的？

Helionismsynergy
A businessman is concerned that there is no more slave to theirs slavery.
But not concerned about their dignified life

商人担心再也没有廉价劳动力可供驱使，却从不关心普通人能否活得有尊严。

vijayjayaraman5990
The rich people are worried that there isn't a large middle class to buy their products

富人发愁，怕庞大的中产消费群体不断缩减，没人再购买他们的商品。

RohitKumar-q4f4s
Indias population max should be 30-40 crore . We are over populated . Property prices and jobs are now killing indians

印度人口控制在三四亿就足够了，现在人口严重过剩。高房价和就业难题压得民众喘不过气。

UnniAppu-f3r
Wtf, india was always highly populated throughout history just like china.
The monsoon, himalayas, humalayan rivers like ganga, brahmaputra, indus. biggest delta in world bengal. Tropical and subtropical climate. Geographical blessed with vast amount of arable land.
5000+ rivers. None other country has this speciality

搞不懂了。和中国一样，印度自古以来就是人口大国。这里有季风气候、喜马拉雅山脉，还有恒河、布拉马普特拉河、印度河等水系，孟加拉地区坐拥世界最大三角洲，地处热带、亚热带，耕地辽阔，境内河流超五千条。没有哪个国家能拥有这般得天独厚的地理条件。

ealthtravellife6212
Exactly, Even the mighty USA 7 times greater than india in size and developed have a population almost equal to Uttar Pradesh

说得没错。美国国土面积是印度的七倍，发展水平也更高，总人口却和印度北方邦差不多。

gagancification
With 1.9 fertility rates, we will reach 30-40 cr in next 40 years. Worst part is number keeps going downward and won't pick up until and unless govt forces people to make kids

按照1.9的生育率计算，四十年后印度人口会降到三四亿。更严峻的是，生育率还会持续走低，除非政府出台政策鼓励生育，否则很难回升。

GAMING_LEDGENDS
They want to reduce indian opportunities outside India ..and they want us to be over populated

有些人既想限制印度人去海外发展，又希望我们一直保持高人口规模。

JDS928
Indian productive educated population is 10% and non productive uneducated population is 90%. The fall in birth rate is in the 10% only.

印度受过教育、能创造价值的人口仅占一成，剩下九成都是低学历、生产力薄弱的群体。而生育率下降，也只出现在前一部分人群当中。

00Human0
I feel like India's Falling Birth Rate is a good thing
saying as Indian

作为一名印度人，我认为生育率下降是件好事。

sidharthsi
He is worried that he would loose such a large consumer base. But for India a lesser population would mean more income and better quality of life for future generations.

他是担心失去印度这个庞大的消费市场。但对印度而言，人口减少，后代才能拥有更高的收入和更好的生活品质。

suryabhanrao3683
They are not concerned about India's growth and demographic dividend, there real concern is if population falls, they'll lose their markets. In the era of automation where majority of people are getting fired, what the hell large chunk of people do.

他们根本不在乎印度的发展和人口红利，真正怕的是人口减少后市场萎缩。如今自动化普及，大量岗位被替代，就算人口再多，这么多人又该何去何从？

Stuartbinny-tf5so
India ko only 2 child policy strictly follow karna padega abhi bhi birthrate bahut high hai aur population kafhi jyada hai , kum population ke hi desh sahi se grow karega .

印度必须严格推行二孩政策，目前生育率依旧偏高，人口总量过大。只有控制人口规模，国家才能稳步发展。

kapilla-1
With more lower middle class going to poverty, all stars are alligned for more baby boom.

越来越多的中产跌入贫困阶层，种种因素叠加，很可能会迎来新一轮生育高峰。

AnsulRawat-h9g
So why we should bring children in india if government cant provide us basic facilities where basic facilities is just luxury in india who have money can buy it

连基本生活保障都做不到，我们为什么还要生孩子？在印度，基础的公共服务都成了奢侈品，只有有钱人才能享受。

Worldexplorer147
As a indian saying this is good! Strict one kid policy! Atleast the one who survives will get to live a best life!

我是印度人，我觉得这是好事！应该严格执行一孩政策，至少留下来的孩子能过上优质的生活。

jasminhabeeb
Someone should study the correlation between credit card debt, cost of living and declining fertility rate in India. This is a world phenomenon and is engineered by the International capital markets

有人该研究一下，印度的生育率下降和信贷负债、生活成本之间的关联。这是全球性现象，背后离不开国际资本市场的影响。

TheGuyNobodyReallyLikes
Almost 20 years ago the Fiji Indian fertility rate was below replacement level at 1.8. So now it might be somewhere between 1.5 to 1.2. As a Fiji Indian, I'm happy about it. I am an antinatalist and I'm not going to have kids and bring them into a world of suffering.

大约二十年前，斐济印度裔的生育率就降到了1.8，低于人口更替水平，如今大概在1.2至1.5之间。身为斐济印度裔，我对此乐见其成。我主张不生育，不愿让孩子来到这个充满苦难的世界。

AnonymousAnonymous-dc3jm
I checked the latest trends, it seems that the most populated and high population density states of Bihar and UP are still having TFR above 2.5, interesting, and that if Bihar + UP was a country, it would be the 3rd most populated country in the world more populated than the US!

我查看了最新数据，人口最多、密度最大的比哈尔邦和北方邦，总和生育率依旧高于2.5，这点很有意思。如果把这两个邦合并成一个国家，人口规模能排到全球第三，甚至超过美国。

Cheezer3089
India needs a strict 1 child policy , we have too many people but not enough resources for everyone. That's why despite having such a rich history we are still backward.

印度必须推行严格的一孩政策。人口数量庞大，资源却不足以养活所有人。这也是我们历史悠久，发展却依旧落后的原因。

sillyman382
Soon I'll be able to sit inside the train?

以后坐火车，是不是终于能有座位了？

adityanishad4985
Nope The Population will will Keep Increasing Till 2090 And Become 2 Billion

想多了。印度人口在2090年前还会持续增长，届时总人口会达到20亿。

pterigomandibular
It isn't lower children it's less marriage compared to previous years no marriage no child
Unemployment, lower salaries ,poverty high expectations made no marriages

并非大家不愿生孩子，而是如今结婚的人变少了，不结婚自然就没有孩子。失业、低收入、贫困，再加上人们择偶要求变高，结婚的人也就越来越少了。

继续阅读：生育率   印度人口

此文由 三泰虎 编辑，未经允许不得转载！：首页 > 资讯 » 印度生育率已跌破人口更替水平，或将未富先老，是否会步日本和中国的后尘