Why China KILLED the Oil Surge

中国为何终结油价暴涨行情

Oil prices were supposed to skyrocket during the Strait of Hormuz crisis, but instead the shock barely lasted. Emergency reserves were emptied and China quietly used its own stockpile, breaking every bullish oil prediction.

霍尔木兹海峡危机本应引发国际油价大幅飙升，可市场震荡转瞬即逝。各国释放石油应急储备，再加上中国悄悄动用自身原油库存，彻底推番了所有看涨油价的预测。

以下是各国网友的评论：

kayleekayt3306
I read that China does have reserves for 2 years at the current rate of buying. That's a whole lot of time to pump out more solar, batteries and electric vehicles.

我了解到，按照当前的消耗速度，中国的石油储备足足可以用上两年。有这么长的缓冲时间，中国能大规模增产光伏、储能电池与电动汽车。

 

drjamesallen6012
Every country on the planet should thank China for that. If they keep buying the prices would become unaffordable for everyone even sooner

全世界各国都得感谢中国。如果中国还在大量收购原油，国际油价会更快涨到各国都承受不起的价位。

 

danielch6662
Two years if Russia stops supplying them. Which is never gonna ever happen. Plus, they're continuing to receive from suppliers east of Hormuz

这份两年储备量是建立在俄罗斯完全停止供油的前提下，而这种情况绝对不会出现。除此之外，中国还能持续从霍尔木兹海峡东侧的产油国进口原油。

ProfessorFickle
@danielch6662 China uses coal for 49% of electricity production much more dirty than oil or clean gas .

 中国49%的电力依靠煤炭发电，煤炭带来的污染远比石油、洁净天然气严重。

 

mathewadams8499
It's a big coutnry with lots of people and the largest manufacturer so of course eit needs energy but atleast the new coal plants are a lot more safe and clean

中国国土辽阔、人口众多，又是全球第一制造业大国，能源需求大自然无可避免。不过新建的火电厂安全标准、清洁程度都提升了很多。

 

ProfessorFickle
Natural gas power plants are 2-3 times cleaner than coal plants that process and cleans its exhaust. Not every coal plant in China treats its exhaust.

天然气发电厂的清洁程度，是配套废气净化装置火电厂的两到三倍。而且中国并不是所有煤电厂都会处理废气。

 

onezetabytepro7668
China Air and sky today is cleaner than EU and US. This speaks for itself. West is all talk.

如今中国的空气环境比欧美国家更好，事实摆在眼前。西方国家只会嘴上空谈环保。

 

jxmai1000
We knew that was planned for many years same as food supply, There are 2-3 years of food supply in China, end up sometime those old food leak to the market, but it should be just use for animal.

石油储备这件事中国规划了很多年，粮食储备也是同理，国内储备的粮食足够消耗两到三年。偶尔会有存放较久的储备粮流入市场，这类粮食按规定只能用作饲料。

 

loulahassan4191
China actually starts buying now and the us strategic reserves are extremely low, this summer will be brutal

中国现在已经开始囤油，美国战略石油储备库存却处在极低水平，今年夏天能源市场行情会非常难熬。

 

SurviveThriveNow
they didn't start buying yet

中国目前还没有大规模购入原油。

renwei78
@SurviveThriveNow Via Russian. The transaction is not registering as it is not in USD.

 中国一直在通过俄罗斯采购原油，双方不用美元结算，相关交易不会体现在常规统计数据里。

SurviveThriveNow
@renwei78 russia stopped the crude oil exports at the end of June, please be more informed.

俄罗斯六月底就停止对华原油出口了，你多了解下真实消息。

winsonip4447
@SurviveThriveNow Russia didn't stop exporting crude oil to China, they are only banning refined oil products. Since China is one of the world's largest oil-refining nations, they don't need finished fuel from Russia anyway.

俄罗斯并没有停止对华原油出口，只是限制成品油外销。中国本身是全球顶尖炼油大国，本来也不需要从俄罗斯进口加工好的燃油。

JABelms
@SurviveThriveNow Russia trades in Asia like how they trade with Iran...it's all under the radar to avoid US sanctions

俄罗斯和亚洲各国的原油贸易模式，跟俄伊之间一样，全程低调操作，规避美国制裁监控。

renwei78
@SurviveThriveNow Nope, I am very informed down to locals there. ESPO is still operational. I let you research what is that.

并不是这样，我掌握当地一手消息，东西伯利亚-太平洋原油管道仍在正常输油，你可以自己去查这条管线的信息。

 

tf-td8cs
The us will just lie and talk the market down.....they need prices down for midterms.. peace and love!!

美国只会靠放出虚假消息打压油价，为中期选举铺路。嘴上说着和平友善，实际全是算计。

 

montyspearo
Buying in bulk now will raise price and shoot themselves in the foot. China will wait for better prices and slowly restock.

现在大批量囤油只会抬高油价，得不偿失。中国会等待合适价位，循序渐进补充库存。

 

renwei78
@montyspearo China has fixed the price with Iran and Russia. So the restock of oil is largely outside of market influence. Since China doesn't need the oil now they can buy future Iran oil. So essentially they continue to buy but get the delivery next year at pre war price.

中国和伊朗、俄罗斯签订了固定油价协议，原油储备采购基本不受国际现货行情波动影响。当下国内原油库存充足，中国可以提前锁价采购伊朗远期原油，按战前低价成交，明年再提货，相当于持续稳定拿货。

 

VECT0R777
@renwei78 You cannot turn electricity into plastics like you can with oil. but a slow increase to let the markets adjust slowly would be smart for everyone.

电能没办法像原油一样加工生产塑料。循序渐进增加原油储备、给市场留出调整缓冲，才是对各方都有利的做法。

 

bmanpura
@montyspearo Not if their industry is starting to pick up and they want to attack everyone financially. It depends on the timing but all oil reserves are low, and China is also an oil producing nation. Market manipulation is open.

要是国内工业复苏、想在能源领域掌握主动权，大量囤油就不会损害自身利益。现在全球各国石油库存都偏低，而且中国自身也有原油开采产能，市场调控的操作十分明显。

 

Stash186
And what is the storage in Cushing Oklahoma now

俄克拉荷马州库欣地区的原油库存现在还有多少？

 

zurielsss
How extremely low? 326 M barrels vs 400 M when it’s full ?

库存到底低到什么程度？是满库存4亿桶，现在只剩3.26亿桶吗？

 

JamesBond-pr3yi
Paper oil hit 115$ but physical oil hit around 150$

原油期货价格涨到115美元每桶，实际现货原油成交价接近150美元每桶。

 

JAN0L
The war caused temporary regional shortages in areas that were receiving oil from the Persian gulf. It takes time to physically move oil from other parts of the world to make up for that shortage. So if someone needed the oil right now they had to pay extra to outbid others for whatever was available. But given a few weeks oil would get shipped in from elsewhere and the price would stabilise so the oil futures prices would reflect that future expectation.

这场冲突让原本依赖波斯湾原油供应的地区出现短期供油缺口。从全球其他产区调运原油填补缺口需要时间，急需原油的买家只能加价竞价抢购现货。但几周后原油会陆续运抵，价格随之平稳，原油期货价格也会提前反映这一预期。

 

don-cw1yz
In some areas of the world the price exceeded $150 for on-demand delivered crude oil. There is usually a very small discepancy b/w the paper price vs on-demand price for oil.

全球部分地区的即时交付原油现货价格突破150美元一桶。正常情况下，原油期货和现货即时成交价的价差不会这么大。

 

possumdiplomat
You can play as much as you want on paper but when you run out of hard material you're fucked no matter how big your echo chamber

任凭资本市场怎么炒作期货都没用，一旦实体原油库存耗尽，再多舆论说辞也解决不了危机。

 

ivanmccallum6613
Also, dark fleet and ship to ship transfers mean Hormuz is always partially open. However, prices are being pushed down by the US dum their reserves. World reserves basically get exhausted in about 30 days. The problem got prolonged. Meanwhile, fertilizer is gone. And depressed prices are going to cause the delayed shock to get worse as it creates a false lull. Go check out your local farm at shop. 20-20-20 is now 10-10-10 for the same price. They're also stocking more organic fertilizer.

大量幽灵油轮、海上过驳作业，让霍尔木兹海峡始终保留部分原油运输通道。美国持续释放战略储备压低油价，全球缓冲库存大概三十天就会消耗一空，能源危机只会持续更久。与此同时化肥供应也出现短缺。当下低价只是短暂假象，后续会爆发更严重的能源冲击。大家可以去农资店看看，以前同等价位能买到均衡复合肥20-20-20，现在只能买到10-10-10，商家也在大量备货有机肥。

 

mahi98goodguy
In india,this conflict and ethanol blending has pushed many vehicle owners to consider electric and e vehicles sales are going very high

受这场能源冲突和乙醇燃油推广政策影响，印度大量车主打算换电动车，当地新能源汽车销量暴涨。

 

pauldewit117
That is most likely happening all over the world. We are in the UK and already had a plug in hybrid, we just bought an EV to replace our worn out Diesel. It feels good not to contribute further to the tight supply issues.

全球各地基本都是这个趋势。我们住在英国，家里原本有一台插混车，最近又购置纯电车替换老旧柴油车，不用再加剧原油供应紧张，心里踏实不少。

 

user27455
@pauldewit117 same here. Already moved on to an EV and never going back to ICE

我也是如此，早就换了纯电车，再也不会开燃油车。

 

DrScopey2
That is good thing - India has hundreds of millions of SUPER polluting 2 stoke engines like you find in motor bikes, TukTuk, delivery vans in India incredible pollution. Here is a funny fact - a large SUV with Turbo v6 even 1000 horsepower Turbo V8 - crazy power is producing much less pollution than 2 stoke motorbike in india. Isn't that incredible? That has to change. India needs to adopt EVs or at least more efficient cars

推广电动车是件好事。印度数亿台两冲程发动机污染极其严重，摩托车、三轮出租车、配送货车全是这类设备，空气污染问题十分突出。说个让人难以置信的事实：大排量涡轮增压六缸、甚至千匹马力八缸SUV，尾气污染都比不上一台印度两冲程摩托。这种现状必须改变，印度应当普及电动车，至少换成低能耗燃油车。

 

Claudeeay
Why this ethanol thing is in Indonesia too? Or almost all of the world

为什么印尼乃至全球绝大多数国家都在推行乙醇燃油政策？

 

mstefa007
In india, Sales of solar panels grew by over 50% this year. In fact china’s solar Manufacturing is at all time high since this is happening pretty much everywhere: Europe, Africa , Asia..

今年印度光伏板销量涨幅超五成。全球各国都在大力布局光伏产业，欧洲、非洲、亚洲需求旺盛，中国光伏产能也达到历史峰值。

 

johnwe4431
Due to EV and clean energy push, oil consumption has peaked already in China.

依托电动车与清洁能源普及，中国原油消费总量已经到达峰值，不再持续增长。

 

danielch6662
And their push on renewables (and don't forget nuclear) to reduce fossil fuel consumption in power generation.

中国大力发展可再生能源，还有核电产业，减少发电端化石燃料消耗。

 

jimmylam9846
It was peaked two years ago.

原油消费峰值两年前就已经出现。

 

stefpeeters4137
in 2050 China will have endles free clean energy through fusion, Their first artificial sun has been built and this will be on industrial scale by 2050.... also there are many projects running to replace plastic .

到2050年，中国可控核聚变技术将提供源源不断的清洁能源。如今人造太阳装置已经建成，2050年前实现工业化商用；国内还有大量研发项目，用来研发原油塑料的替代材料。

 

YSKWatch
rarely mentioned: China is the 6th crude oil producer.

很少有人提到，中国原油开采产量位居全球第六。

ProfessorFickle
@YSKWatch China uses dirty-coal for 49% of electricity production much more dirty than oil or clean-natural-gas .

中国49%电力依靠污染严重的煤炭，污染程度远超石油和清洁天然气。

 

ZMS-kj1rs
@ProfessorFickle You should know that while oil produces less carbon dioxde and ash than raw coal, modern clean coal technology generally emits fewer local air pollutants. China has been transitioning to clean coal technology for many years, air pollution is already things of the past. Their Supercritical plants are the world's most efficient ones.

要清楚，虽然原油相比原煤二氧化碳、粉尘排放更低，但现代化洁净燃煤技术能大幅削减本地空气污染物。中国多年来全面升级洁净煤发电技术，空气污染早已得到彻底改善，国内超临界发电机组发电效率全球顶尖。

 

Rkcuddles
It’s a little too soon to claim we dodged the worst of this mess

现在就断定我们躲过了能源危机最糟糕的阶段，为时过早。

 

MartinSeitz-k6w
If oil supply is supposedly abundant, demand has supposedly been destroyed, and China/dark-fleet ship supposedly “killed” the oil surge, then why is the U.S. still drawing the Strategic Petroleum Reserve so heavily? Heavy SPR withdrawals suggest the shortage has not been solved — it is being hidden by emergency inventory liquidation. If Hormuz flows were truly normal and enough oil was reaching the market, SPR draws should be slowing, commercial inventories should be building, crack spreads should be easing, and tanker stress should be falling. The more likely explanation is that crude futures are being held down by SPR releases, weak visible Chinese imports, refinery run cuts, and headline-driven selling — while the physical oil system remains tight.

如果原油供应充足、市场需求大幅萎缩，再加上中国和幽灵油轮压制油价，那美国为什么还要持续大规模释放战略石油储备？大量抛售储备只能说明原油短缺问题没有解决，只是靠应急库存暂时掩盖。倘若霍尔木兹海峡输油顺畅、市场原油供给充足，美国投放储备的力度会下降，商业库存会上涨，炼油利润、油轮运力紧张的问题都会缓解。更贴近现实的情况是：美国释放储备、中国公开进口数据走低、炼油厂减产、市场看空抛售，共同压低原油期货价格，但实体原油市场依旧供给紧张。

 

FrekiBodgaedir
An initial surge of oil stored behind Hormuz was not a genius prediction. What happens when it runs out?

霍尔木兹海峡周边囤积的原油短期投放市场，算不上长远对策。等这批库存消耗完毕，后续危机该如何应对？

 

temper44
China knew that the worst possible scenario would be war until the US midterm elections started. They just had to release enough oil from their strategic supply to keep the domestic situation stable until that point.

中国预判冲突会持续到美国中期选举，这段时间能源市场波动最大，只需要适度释放储备原油，稳住国内能源供给即可。

 

jianyang6281
China isnt releasing strategic supply, it is only for 100% cutting off from oil market scenario. But China released the commercial reserves indeed, while cutting 40% import.

中国并没有动用战略石油储备，战略储备仅用于完全断油的极端危机。不过国内投放了商业原油库存，同时削减四成原油进口量。

 

raybod1775
If every country electrified their vehicles as much as China, we might save the world from global warming.

如果各国都像中国一样大力普及电动交通工具，全球变暖问题能得到极大缓解。

 

morbid747
US will be against that because they are the world largest oil producer and they need the petrol dollar. Just couldn't stop China from electrifying the country.

美国一定会阻挠全球电动化转型，美国是全球头号原油生产国，依靠石油美元维系霸权，但他们拦不住中国发展电动车。

 

sensen6563
China needs a marketing department to promote good image

中国应当组建专门宣传团队，对外塑造良好国际形象。

 

skullfc4215
But in the 70s china wasn't an oil thirst machine, so the reason why the oil shock didn't hit harder this time is just not explained by China using its reserves, but a bid market hedge on advanced plus an energy independence movement towards mainly solar and wind. Peak Oil already passed and won't comeback

上世纪70年代中国原油需求并不庞大，所以本次油价冲击缓和，不能只归功于中国释放储备。各国提前布局能源对冲方案，大力发展光伏、风电实现能源自主，才是核心原因。石油需求峰值已经过去，不会再重现往日高消耗局面。

 

kingofthesofas
Oil reserves don't last forever. They reduced 4 million barrels a day due to using oil reserves but the long term reduction is only 350k barrels a day meaning once oil reserves run out there is a huge gap that would drive prices up. The strait is still at a much reduced volume so if this continues there will still be problems for the market and China

各国储备原油终究会耗尽。当下靠投放库存每日填补400万桶供给缺口，但长期原油增产仅35万桶。一旦储备清空，巨大供给缺口会推高油价。霍尔木兹海峡原油运量依旧大幅缩减，这种现状持续下去，全球与中国能源市场都会遭遇麻烦。

 

algoobi5573
They started using their own stock, but well they dont have infinite stock, even if the stock was 1-2 billion barrels, its only like a couple of months

中国确实动用了自有原油库存，但库存不是无限的。就算库存总量有10到20亿桶，也只够支撑短短数月。

 

sangmoon2464
Ironically, Trump's taking out of Venezuela's Maduro also forced China to decrease its oil imports because that took out a major source of cheap oil for China.

讽刺的是，特朗普政府制裁委内瑞拉马杜罗政权，切断了中国一大低价原油进口渠道，倒逼中国削减原油采购量。

 

chrispnw2547
My neighbor drives a huge Ford F250 diesel truck to work daily. He never tows with it or uses the bed. It is a vanity-play (nothing more). I with him well when fuel prices soar over the coming months.

我邻居每天开福特F250大型柴油皮卡上下班，从来不拉货、不拖挂设备，纯粹为了撑场面。接下来几个月油价暴涨，有他难受的。

 

tf-td8cs
China can also continue to buy discounted oil from russia

中国还能持续从俄罗斯采购打折原油。

 

CB-A6KZ
Why the hell is he taking in the PAST TENSE?!? The Strait is not open. Oil flow is minimal. And now our reserves are near tank bottoms. China bought time, which the U.S. has squandered. This sort of wishful thinking that the crisis is over is all that’s prop up the market. Wake up.

这人怎么还在用过去式描述现状？霍尔木兹海峡运输通道根本没恢复通畅，原油运量微乎其微。各国原油库存濒临见底。中国靠储备争取到缓冲时间，美国却白白浪费机会。市场仅仅靠着危机结束的美好幻想撑着，大家该清醒一点。