Boom or skewed spike? India’s exports to China jump 90% - but why there is little reason to cheer

是爆发式增长，还是畸形冲高？印度对华出口激增90%——为何却没太多值得欢呼的理由

India’s exports to China surged 90% in November to hit $2.2 billion! However, the remarkable year-on-year spike masks the truth of how volatile India’s exports to China are, and the growing dependence on the neighbouring country for imports, according to a new report by Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI). From April to November, exports grew by 33%, touching $12.2 billion, up from $9.2 billion the previous year.

According to GTRI, India’s trade relationship with China has entered a phase of sharp contrasts. “Overall, India’s export growth to China is not broad-based. It is concentrated mainly in naphtha and a few atypical electronics products, rather than across India’s traditional export basket,” said GTRI, striking a cautious note.

11月，印度对华出口额激增90%，达到22亿美元！

但据全球贸易研究倡议组织（GTRI）的一份最新报告显示，这一亮眼的同比增幅，掩盖了印度对华出口波动剧烈的真相，同时印度在进口方面对邻国的依赖还在不断加深。

今年4月至11月，印度对华出口累计增长33%，出口额从去年同期的92亿美元攀升至122亿美元。

GTRI指出，印中贸易关系已进入一个反差强烈的阶段。该机构给出谨慎评价：“总体而言，印度对华出口增长并非全面开花。增长主要集中在石脑油和少数非典型电子产品上，并未覆盖印度传统的出口商品品类。”

Why did India’s exports to China surge?

According to GTRI founder Ajay Srivastava, the spike in exports is largely driven by a limited range of products. Naphtha is the largest contributor, with exports rising by 512% in October and 172% from April to October - totaling a whop $1.4 billion, due to strong Chinese demand for petrochemical feedstocks.

Electronics also saw unusually sharp increases. Exports of printed circuit boards surged to $296.5 million in October, an 8,577% year-on-year increase, while shipments from April to October rose over 2,000% to $418 million.

Exports of mobile phone components also increased by 82% to $362 million, which is unusual given India's significant imports of these items from China.

In contrast, exports of iron ore continued to decline, drop by 1.2% in October and 30% from April to October, while shrimp exports showed only modest growth.

印度对华出口缘何激增？

GTRI创始人阿贾伊·斯里瓦斯塔瓦表示，出口激增主要由少数几类产品拉动。石脑油是最大的贡献品类。受中国市场对石化原料强劲需求的推动，10月印度石脑油对华出口暴增512%；4月至10月累计出口额高达14亿美元，同比增幅达172%。

电子产品出口同样出现罕见的大幅增长。10月，印刷电路板对华出口额飙升至2.965亿美元，同比增幅高达8577%；4月至10月累计出口额达4.18亿美元，同比增幅超2000%。

手机零部件对华出口额也增长82%，达到3.62亿美元。要知道，印度本身大量从中国进口这类产品，此番出口增长实属反常。

与之形成对比的是，铁矿石出口持续下滑。10月出口同比下降1.2%，4月至10月累计出口同比降幅达30%；虾类产品出口也仅实现小幅增长。

以下是印度时报读者的评论：

Sanatani Clint Ew
So india basically exporsts some raw materials to china and then we inport almost 5x that amt and yet we are some atmanibhar and vikSh!t bharat BS and people are still buying that!!

说白了，印度就是向中国出口点原材料，反过来却要进口差不多五倍的商品。可我们还在扯什么“自力更生印度”“强盛印度”的空话，居然还有人信这套！

Amit Sharma
So is it your case that India is wrong in pursuing atmanirbharta? Or are you lamenting that India has not become atmanirbhar? Both questions are that of an ignoramus much like the name you have picked for yourself to hide your spots!!! But like the proverbial hyena the moment you opened your mouth you gave yourself away!! Jokes apart- look up the increase in 1. India's exports and the product range. 2. Industrial output, 3. sector wise GNP. To get an idea about the atmanirbharta claims. But dont forget to check against your 'golden period' in 2009-13!!

照你这么说，是印度追求自力更生的方向错了？还是你在抱怨印度没能实现自力更生？这两个问题问得都够无知的，就跟你为了遮丑取的这个名字一个德行！你这一开口，就跟鬣狗露了原形没两样！不开玩笑了，你去查查这几项数据：一、印度的出口额和出口产品种类增幅；二、工业产值；三、各行业国民生产总值。看完再评价自力更生的成效。别忘了，拿你口中2009到2013年的“黄金时期”来做对比！

Srikanth Ramanathan
What have you done to increase India's exports? Your useless Islamic countries export nothing except oil. Learn to do something useful or shut the fork up.

你为增加印度出口做过什么贡献？你们那些ysl国家除了石油，什么也不会出口。学着干点正经事，不然就闭嘴。

Aravind Banaras
And we say we are creating jobs. 10 years of Modi government has been an utter failure and the opposition is setting up narrative of vote chori shameless politicians making fool of Indians

我们还说自己在创造就业机会呢。莫迪政府执政十年，彻头彻尾就是失败。反对党还在炒作“选票被盗”的说法，这帮政客真不要脸，把印度民众当傻子耍。

Klm
At any point of time China is more trustworthy than the US. Am talking about more and comparing the two. Don't mean to totally trust China. Henry Kissinger once said to be enemy of the US is dangerous and to be a friend is fatal. One cannot become self sufficient overnight. We have to work hard consistently and build our capabilities.

无论什么时候，中国都比美国靠谱些。我是相对这两国来说的，不是说要完全信任中国。基辛格就说过，和美国为敌很危险，和美国做朋友则是致命的。自力更生不是一朝一夕就能实现的。我们得持之以恒努力，逐步提升自身实力。

User R
Modi hain to mumkin hain

有莫迪在，一切皆有可能。

Desmond D'souza
Good to c trade with neighbours than trusting unreliable ones far off. If India makes friends with Pakistan then the western arms market will collapse and the country will develop at a faster pace

和邻国做生意，总比相信远在天边的不靠谱国家强。要是印度能和巴基斯坦交好，西方的军火市场就得崩盘，我们国家的发展速度也会大大加快。

Jagdish Chandra
Due to high Chinese demand for petrochemical feedstock’s, naphtha exports soared by 512% in October and 172% between April and October, totaling a staggering $1.4 billion. Electronics also saw an exceptionally sharp increase. Machinery, electronics, plastics, and organic chemicals account for over 80% of China's exports to India. The USA administration's announcement of a high tariff regime or the twisted international affairs might be the catalyst for this increase.

受中国石化原料需求激增的影响，印度石脑油10月出口量暴涨512%，4月至10月累计增幅达172%，总额高达14亿美元。电子产品出口也出现了罕见的大幅增长。中国对印出口商品中，机械、电子、塑料和有机化学品占比超过80%。美国政府出台的高关税政策，或是错综复杂的国际形势，都可能是推动这一增长的催化剂。

NriNatter DotCom
We Indians have no standards, no conscience. Full of hypocrisy, opportunism, convenience politics. Not long ago, we denounced China. We turned nationalistic, ingoistic, parochial. We dance to Feku's tunes. Shameless. We burned Chinese goods. Today, we succkk Chinese dicckk. If we really desire to see Big Positive Permanent Change in India, we ordinary citizens need to do more than merely post our comments and reactions to news online. We need to get a sense of history first and become change-makers and game-changers ourselves next, without waiting for some Messiah, Mahatma, Avatar-Purush, JakeSully, etc, to suddenly appear on the scene to rescue us from cliff edge. We need to understand India in terms of four recent phases seen over the last 800-1,000 years. 1) Rule by Indian kings (Rajputs, etc); 2) Muslim invasions; 3) Colonization by Western Europeans (British, French and Portuguese); 4) Post-1947, usur of power by a) Non-Brahmin Higher Castes (NBHCs) in the form of capitalists/industrialists, MNCs, Big Corporates and b) by vote-bank politicians (a small number of leaders playing the politics of big numbers in Dalits, SCs, STs, OBCs and such groups), and c) by their enablers (bureaucrats, policymakers, planners, regulators, etc). All these four phases have been responsible for devitalizing India and disempowering Indians. Until and unless we end this fourth phase, India will regress and get hollowed out by both NBHCs and lumpen netas (and their enablers), and will never see genuine liberty, freedom, Independence, equality, egalitarian society, utopia as defined by Rutger Bregman in his Dec 2025 BBC Reith lectures.

我们印度人毫无底线，毫无良知。满脑子都是虚伪、投机和功利主义政治。不久前，我们还在谴责中国，一个个变得民族主义爆棚、盲目排外、狭隘偏执，跟着那个“骗子”的调子瞎起哄。真不要脸！当初还烧过中国货，现在却又去巴结中国。

如果我们真的希望印度实现彻底、持久的良性变革，普通民众不能只在网上对新闻发表评论、发泄情绪。我们首先要了解历史，然后主动成为变革者，而不是坐等什么救世主、圣雄、天神下凡或者杰克·萨利之类的人物突然出现，把我们从危机边缘救出来。

我们需要从近800到1000年的四个历史阶段来理解印度：一、印度本土王朝统治时期（如拉杰普特王朝等）；二、msl入侵时期；三、西欧殖民时期（英国、法国、葡萄牙）；四、1947年独立后，权力被三类群体篡夺——甲、非婆罗门高种姓群体，以资本家、实业家、跨国公司和大型企业为代表；乙、选票政治政客，少数领导人靠着达利特人、表列种姓、表列部落和其他落后阶级等群体玩起了人海战术

这四个阶段都导致印度元气大伤，印度民众被剥夺了权利。除非终结这第四个阶段，否则印度只会不断倒退，被非婆罗门高种姓群体和流氓政客（及其帮凶）掏空，永远无法实现真正的自由、独立、平等，也建不成鲁特格尔·布雷格曼在2025年12月英国广播公司雷斯讲座中所描述的平等社会和乌托邦。

Sumit Jaiswal
Don't understand what should I write. What the hell atmanirbhar govt is doing, No such improvement we can see in trade deficit. Bad thing is that trade deficit is increasing gradually... so much dependency on enemy's country is not good for us.. plz take some stern steps to decrease import by adding tarrif or whatever,our priority must be to narrow the gap of trade deficit that's it.

我都不知道该说什么了。这个口口声声喊自力更生的政府到底在干些什么？贸易逆差一点改善都没有，糟糕的是还在持续扩大。这么依赖敌对国家，对我们没半点好处。求求政府赶紧采取强硬措施，比如加征关税什么的来减少进口，我们的首要任务就该是缩小贸易逆差，仅此而已。

Amit Sharma
Most people do not understand the nuances of growth and development of a nations economic development. Economic development is an immensely complex process, with countless moving parts requiring decades to synchronize toward sustained growth. Historical paths vary greatly due to unique circumstances: For example; 1. The USA industrialized over two centuries, benefiting from vast resources, large-scale immigration, and geographic isolation from major conflicts. 2. China's rapid ascent over the past six decades is the result of a unique sequence: first, foundational industrialization under a centralized state, followed by an unprecedented, state-driven shift to a market economy that mobilized its enormous population. Besides not having been colonised and plundered in the same way as India. 3. The United Kingdom's industrial transformation took roughly a century and was fueled in part by extractive colonial capital and markets. 4. India's starting point with the islamists destruction and then at independence in 1947 was uniquely challenging. It faced the severe economic and infrastructural depletion caused by British colonial rule, which had systematically dismantled indigenous industries. Furthermore, the nation had to simultaneously build a modern de ocracy, integrate hundreds of princely states, and manage profound social diversity—all without the kind of centralized, auth rian model employed by China. Few studies have evaluated the scale of destruction of india's inherent unity & capabilities during the muslim offensives. Given this context, where India has had to build de ocratic institutions and economic capacity concurrently from a deeply impoverished base, it is reasonable to argue that the nation needs more time—perhaps several decades—to achieve a level of comprehensive development that rivals its peers.

大多数人都不懂国家经济发展的复杂细节。经济发展是个极其复杂的过程，涉及无数环节，需要数十年时间才能协调推进，实现可持续增长。不同国家的历史发展路径因国情不同而天差地别：

比如：一、美国的工业化进程耗时两个世纪，得益于丰富的自然资源、大规模移民潮，以及远离重大战乱的地理位置。

二、中国过去六十年的快速崛起，是一系列独特举措的结果：先是在中央体制下完成工业化基础建设，随后又在国家主导下，史无前例地转向市场经济，充分调动了庞大的人口优势。此外，中国没有经历过和印度一样的殖民掠夺。

三、英国的工业转型耗时约一个世纪，部分动力来自殖民掠夺的资本和开拓的海外市场。

四、印度的起点尤为艰难，先是遭受msl入侵的破坏，1947年独立时又面临英国殖民统治留下的烂摊子——本土工业被系统性摧毁，经济和基础设施百废待兴。不仅如此，印度还得同时推进现代皿煮制度建设、整合数百个土邦，还要应对复杂的社会多样性问题，而且没有采用中国那种中央的模式。很少有研究评估过msl入侵对印度固有统一性和发展潜力的破坏程度。

在这样的背景下，印度从极度贫困的基础起步，要同时建设体制和发展经济，因此需要更多时间——或许几十年——才能实现全面发展，赶上其他国家的水平，这个说法是合情合理的。

Satya
What's the use of having so many IITs ..NITs eng colleges if at the end we have to import billions of $ of heavy engineering...electronics.. plastics ..API.etc ...useless eng college focusing on IT jobs in US.....

我们有这么多印度理工学院、国家理工学院和工程院校又有什么用？到头来还不是要进口数十亿美元的重型机械、电子产品、塑料和原料药等产品。这些工程院校真是白办了，净教些去美国找信息技术工作的东西

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