Which Poor Country Will Get Rich First?

哪个穷国能率先富裕起来？

Some poor countries are climbing fast. Very few ever finish the climb to high income.

Vietnam just moved up a World Bank income group. India opened its economy in 1991. Bangladesh is about to leave the least-developed list, and Ethiopia's leaders were influenced by East Asia's state-led model. But growing fast is not the same as getting rich. South Korea started at $82 per person in 1961 and is now projected by the IMF at $43,512 per person in 2026, above Japan's $35,400, while the Philippines lost a big early lead over China.

部分贫困国家经济增速很快，但最终能成功迈入高收入经济体之列的寥寥无几。

越南刚刚在世界银行的收入分组里升级。印度1991年开启经济自由化改革。孟加拉国很快就要脱离最不发达国家名单，埃塞俄比亚的领导层借鉴了东亚国家的发展模式。不过高速增长不等于变富裕。1961年韩国人均GDP仅82美元，国际货币基金组织预测，2026年韩国人均GDP将达到43512美元，高于日本的35400美元；而菲律宾早年原本大幅领先中国，后来却落后了中国。

世界银行按收入水平划分218个经济体的分类标准是：低收入为人均 GDP少于1175 美元，高收入门槛是人均GDP超过 14375 美元

韩国是富裕起来的典型成功案例：1961 年韩国的人均GDP仅 82 美元，低于当时的很多穷国，2026 年 IMF 预测韩国的人均GDP可达 43512 美元，超过日本。韩国大力发展出口，从假发这类低端出口品，一步步发展到造船等高端重工业；新加坡、中国、波兰也走出了各自的产业升级之路。菲律宾早年人均收入远超中国，后来被大幅反超

以下是各国网友的评论：

rocker10039
India will need at least 2 decades to catch up because of the sheer size of the economy. India can definitely be very self reliant though

印度经济体量太大，至少还要20年才能富裕起来。但印度完全有能力实现独立自主。

 

SACRED_HITMAN
Yes, India needs a lot of time. Because it is the country of poor

没错，印度要走的路很长，这个国家目前大多数是穷人

rocker10039
​​ @SACRED_HITMAN Not exactly bro, from recent data it seems India is going to hit a specific number. 100 Million affluent people, i.e people that earn more than 8 LPA are classified under this. This is small in comparison to 1.4 Billion lther people, but try to understand what 100 million people means. That's more population than a few rich countries. India doesn't have a rich or poor problem, it has a scale problem especially being a de ocracy

不是这么回事，兄弟。最新数据显示，印度富裕人群会达到1亿人，也就是年收入超过80万卢比的人会达到1一人。放在14亿总人口里看，这个数字不算多，但你想想1亿是什么概念，比不少发达国家的总人口还要多。印度的问题不是单纯的贫富问题，而是体量问题，更何况印度它还是皿煮国家。

 

SACRED_HITMAN
" India doesn't has rich poor problem,," ? . In what world are u living. U just live on social media i feel. Better look on numbers on IMF , world bank.
If u talk of rich indians being more than entire countries. Why u discount even more number of poorer indians who are even more than rich Indians . if u rejoice over rich indians why doesn't u show concern on even greater poor indians. Or may be u r from upper class who thinks about themselves.

“印度不存在贫富问题？”你活在哪个世界里？我感觉你只刷社交媒体。去看看国际货币基金组织、世界银行的数据吧。

你说印度富人数量比很多国家总人口还多，那怎么不提穷人更多，穷人数量远超富人？你为富人很多而感到沾沾自喜，为什么不关心数量庞大的穷人？说不定你本身就是只考虑自己的上层阶层。

rocker10039
​ @SACRED_HITMAN mmm. I don't think you understand my comment at all. I mentioned the number of poor is great too. Like I said, it's a scale problem. Even if India became the richest country on earth, there will be poor people. That's the scale of India. Bro you only read half the comment and understood 10% of it.

 唉，你完全没看懂我的话。我也说了穷人数量很多。我刚才讲的是体量问题。就算印度变成全球最富的国家，照样会有穷人，这就是印度庞大的体量带来的特点。兄弟，你只看了一半内容，连十分之一的内容都没有理解。

AT6986
​ @rocker10039 so you finally accepted that india is inequal

所以你终于承认印度贫富差距大了。

rocker10039
​ @AT6986 . Did I say India is equal? What are you smoking

 我什么时候说过印度没有贫富差距？你在想什么呢。

a1_tokaa
​ @SACRED_HITMAN which your country?

你是哪个国家的？

SACRED_HITMAN
​ @a1_tokaa I am Indian. kya fark padta h, facts don't care about your feelings. We feel insulted whoever talks bad about India. But the fact is Indians are very poor
Nowadays, people talk Chinese are misrepresentating India by putting Bangladesh photos. I highly doubt it they will such a stupid thing because india already has dirty image in foreign. Everybody knows aqi of India but if anybody mentions it, he is shamed

我是印度人。这重要吗，事实不会顺着人的情绪改变。有人说印度不好，我们会觉得被冒犯。但事实就是，很多印度人很穷。

最近很多人说，中国拿孟加拉国的照片来抹黑印度。他们不会这样做蠢事啦，印度在海外本来就形象不好啊。所有人都知道印度空气质量差，可只要有人说印度不好，就会被指责。

midnight_talkies
​ @SACRED_HITMAN get well soon

 祝你早日想开。

 

SACRED_HITMAN
I am fine, Hope for India it needs a lot of catch up

我没事，只希望印度能抓紧追赶上去，早点富裕起来。

midnight_talkies
​ @SACRED_HITMAN still, get well soon man

 还是希望你放平心态。

Raviraj-np8eu
​ @SACRED_HITMAN bro there is a france and also a nigeria in India . Hope you understand what I am saying

兄弟，印度内部一边有像法国一样富裕的群体，另一边也有像尼日利亚一样贫困的群体，希望你明白我的意思。

SACRED_HITMAN
​​ @Raviraj-np8eu ya but on the average is nearer nigeria.
GDP PPP PER Capita
India: 13k
Nigeria: 10k
France: 68k
Hope u won't bring , cost of living is different. GDP PPP calculates cost of Living

话是这么说，但印度全国的平均水平更接近尼日利亚。购买力平价人均GDP：

印度：13000美元

尼日利亚：10000美元

法国：68000美元

别拿生活成本不一样来说事，购买力平价GDP本身就已经把生活成本算进去了。

 

Raviraj-np8eu
You haven't understand my point.. there are millions of people in India who have money like europeans

你没懂我的意思。印度有几百万人的收入水平和欧洲人差不多的啊。

SACRED_HITMAN
​ @Raviraj-np8eu millions of people having income like Europe. Ok so, what about many more have poorer than Nigeria. If u want to rejoice over upper class indians u can. But talking India as a whole they are small portion of the population. For Indian to be called better the average has to go up. That means GDP per capita has to go up. It is near Nigeria levels.
California is a state is US it's GDP is nearly equal or slightly less than whole India.

 几百万人收入接近欧洲？行，那还有更多人，生活比尼日利亚人过得还差。你想盯着上层群体开心，那么随便你。但放到整个印度来看，富人只是一小部分。印度要变好，平均值必须上去，也就是人均GDP要提高，现在印度人的生活水平也就和尼日利亚差不多。

美国加州一个州的GDP，差不多和印度全国的GDP相当

Raviraj-np8eu
​@SACRED_HITMAN our GDP growth is doing quite good.. in 1950 when europe and usa were making fighter jets and submarines, india gained independence at that time . Facing hunger while Millions died due to that . But we came back and we don't lost our identity like iran or others , we preserved our history and culture, and we will make our nation more developed with time , we are fastest growing economy. Will be third largest economy till 2028 and will be 15 trillion dollar economy within 14-15 years .. yes india is not like developed country and everyone knows that . But we will .. in 2013 28 percent of Indians were below poverty line , now only 1 percent are below poverty line

我们的GDP增速还可以的。1950年欧美都在造战机、潜艇的时候，印度才刚独立。当时饥荒肆虐，数百万印度人饿死。但我们挺过来了，没有像伊朗等国家那样丢掉自身特色，保住了自己的历史和文化。假以时日，我们国家会变得更发达。我们是全球增长最快的经济体，2028年就能成为世界第三大经济体，14到15年内经济体量达到15万亿美元。大家都清楚印度现在还不是发达国家，但我们以后会做到。2013年印度还有28%的人口处于贫困线以下，现在贫困率只剩1%。

 

MHT-c9l
Vietnam will be as it grows 8% annually. Its the mini version of China 20 years ago. Samsung, Apple, Intel, Nike etc big companies all have investments there

越南有机会先富起来，它每年能保持8%的增长，就像20年前的缩小版中国。三星、苹果、英特尔、耐克这些大企业都在那里投资。

 

rrajan5476
too much jargons. sloppy

专业术语太多，说得乱七八糟。

 

pallabidutta968
People in Europe and other so-called rich western countries have to work 3 jobs a day to meet their daily demands. Does that fall under high income jobs or low income jobs?

欧洲和那些所谓富裕西方国家里，不少人为了维持生活，一天要打三份工。这种算高薪工作还是低薪工作？

 

pawanmohanpanda3028
India will be added in upper middle income by 2035 and High Income by 2047 for sure

印度2035年一定会进入上中等收入经济体，2047年迈入高收入经济体。

 

thecomment9489
with enough data manipulation that may be possible even by 2030

只要足够修改数据，说不定2030年就能做到。

 

Gingercat-8
If we change the calculation method, India will become a developed country next year.

要是我们改一下统计口径，印度明年就能变成发达国家。

 

Camera7Productions
You forgot India has a consumption driven economy.

你漏掉了一点，我们印度可是消费拉动型经济。

 

Trials_By_Errors
India is shifting from services to Manufacturing. Although services sector is also growing.

印度经济重心正在从服务业转向制造业，不过服务业也还在持续发展。

 

Kalki0025
GDP per capita is also a poor measure of how well ordinary people live. A country may have a GDP per capita of $2,000, yet the average person there may be able to afford certain basic necessities more easily than someone living in a country with a GDP per capita of $30,000.
What really matters is the cost of living and what people can actually afford. In some countries, you can buy two full meals a day for less than $1. In countries like India and parts of Southeast Asia, healthcare can also be much cheaper than in Western countries. You may be able to buy insulin for less than $1, essential medicines at very low prices, a kilogram of rice or wheat for less than $0.50, and a kilogram of meat for around $1–2.
Public education may be free, medical appointments and basic check-ups may be affordable and easily accessible, and internet and mobile services can cost very little.
A country's wealth should not be judged by GDP per capita alone. We should look at what an ordinary person can afford, how easily they can access healthcare and education, and how comfortably and securely they can live.

人均GDP其实很难真实反映普通人的生活水平。有的国家人均GDP只有2000美元，但普通人买基础生活用品，反而比人均GDP3万美元国家的人更轻松。

真正关键的是生活成本，以及老百姓的实际购买力。有些国家，不到1美元就能解决一日两餐。像印度、东南亚部分地区，医疗开销远低于西方国家。胰岛素可能不到1美元，常用药价格很低，一公斤大米或小麦不到0.5美元，一公斤肉大概1到2美元。

公立教育免费，看病挂号、基础体检不贵，而且很方便，流量和话费也很便宜。

评判一个国家富裕与否，不能只看人均GDP。还要看普通人的购买力，看病、上学是否方便，生活有没有保障、过得舒不舒服。

 

Philip271828
Probably Vietnam. India will probably make it in patches but lifting the whole place will take a long time. Malaysia and the Philippines are stuffed by geography, as is Botswana.

大概率是越南会先富裕起来。印度或许能局部发展起来，但要让全国整体脱贫致富，需要很久。马来西亚、菲律宾还有博茨瓦纳，都被地理条件束缚了。

 

callmeyopi
India is now trying to manufacture everything in house which is awesome. The tech will be less expensive, more jobs and less imports. I just hope the poorest people in the country will have a better life soon. Increased standard of living for everyone.

印度现在努力把各类产品放在国内生产，这点很棒。技术成本会下降，岗位会变多，进口依赖也会降低。我只希望印度最贫困的人群能尽快过上好日子，所有人的生活水平都能提高。

 

devynclaybrooks5338
Spent a month in Vietnam in March 2025. I have full faith that the Vietnamese are gonna make the jump. VinFast, Vincom, XanhSM, they’re up next.

2025年3月我在越南待了一个月。我非常看好越南以后的产业升级。VinFast、Vincom、XanhSM这些越南本土企业，就是接下来的主力。

 

ashitkotian2396
Regarding Industrialization in India, there is a lot of work going on in the supply chain aspects which supply parts to the industries, the dividends will be paid for this in the coming years. Basically no more assembling. The most difficult part is batteries due to raw materials, still alternative methods are being researched and funded. What India requires is energy, India is investing a lot in nuclear power plants and renewable energy sources

说说印度的工业化，现在国内正在大力搭建配套产业链，给各个工厂供应零部件，未来几年就能看到成果。简单来说，不再只做组装代工。最难的是电池产业，受原材料限制，不过相关替代方案也在研发，资金扶持也到位。印度现在最缺能源，所以正在大力建设核电站、发展各类新能源。